Re-Examining Ja'Kobe Walter
Ja'Kobe Walter was a hot name to start the year, but his stock has simmered. Maxwell asks--has it simmered too much?
Baylor’s Ja’Kobe Walter came into the year as a projected lottery pick. From a physical standpoint, he looked like a prototypical two-guard. His competitive fire radiated off the screen in his high school tape. Walter was a winner, too. He led Link Academy to a GEICO Nationals title while putting together one of the most dominant scoring stretches any prep prospect in the country had that year. But basketball doesn’t get any easier as you scale up in competition.
Walter’s freshman season at Baylor was a mixed bag. At times, his athletic limitations were on display. He struggled with his scoring efficiency, posting 47.4 eFG% and shooting splits of 37.6/34.1/79.2. He didn’t showcase the playmaking chops more common among top wing prospects in the modern era. Still, his season was far from a disaster. There’s a reason Walter is still talked about as a potential lottery pick, and not as a “mystery box flier” in the vein of Peyton Watson, Patrick Baldwin Jr., or (getting deep in my bag) Khalil Whitney.
Part of Walter’s inefficiency stemmed from his role, as he was the leading man for the Bears. He posted 14.5 PPG and was the team’s top scorer. His role never diminished, and that’s because Baylor ultimately had a good season with Walter at the helm. They ended the year 24-11 and made it to the second round of the NCAA tournament. While it may not have been the dream season that Walter or Baylor fans hoped for, he ultimately led the show for a Top 25 team. This was far from a letdown.
But now, we’re off to the next level, where things will get even tougher. On one hand, that can make Walter a scary predicament. Teams may view his college inefficiency, current lack of a playmaking punch, and run-of-the-mill NBA athleticism and wonder how much stock to put into him. Conversely, Walter is a player who has won at multiple levels, has an NBA translatable skill to hang his hat on, and has shown a real level of comfort operating without the ball in his hands. Plus, the character notes on him have been nothing but positive. Walter’s work ethic, paired with a high-value shooting arsenal, makes him a tantalizing prospect. Walter’s stock was sky-high to start the year, but he subsequently slid as his production left something to be desired. Still, the context in which he played, and the boxes that he checks, warrants a re-examination of his game. I fear that there may be an overcorrection given the success of other players who fit his same mold. Let’s get into the nuts and bolts of it!
NBA Shooting and The Path to Other Improvements
There are two things I want to start out with. The first is what I call, “The Path to Other Improvements.” Basically, what can a player do well enough that will get them onto the court that will then, in turn, allow them to get the in-game reps to develop the other areas of their game? Let’s say a player is a mundane processor of the game with an okay handle who is merely adequate defensively, but a devasting jump shooter. If that player can come into the league and knock down shots right away, they have a way to get better. Look at Devin Booker, for example. I want to be clear—I don’t think Ja’Kobe Walter is Devin Booker, and I’ll get into some comparisons I feel better about later on. He simply provides an easy-to-understand, clear example of this phenomenon. Booker came into the league with a good frame and movement shooting profile. From there, he’s been able to round out his scoring arsenal, get better defensively, and make substantial growth as a playmaker. Rarely did Booker make plays for himself or others during his year at Kentucky, but getting on the floor at the NBA level has allowed him the crucial experience to see through that development.
It pains me to talk about him, but Johnny Davis sits on the opposite side of this coin. He was a well-rounded shooting guard in college. He was a decent shooter, a solid passer, an awesome rebounder, and a dogged on-ball defender. His shot, which was shaky in college, didn’t scale up. That’s a whole different column than this one. But there wasn’t an NBA Path to Other Improvements without it. Given his suboptimal positional size for a wing and lack of explosiveness, he didn’t have a way to score on offense. He didn’t have the advantage creation chops to set up others. While he can compete defensively, his solid measurables and athletic traits aren’t enough to compensate for his offensive woes. We just saw Amen Thompson produce positive value while shooting 13.8% from three on less than one attempt per game. Thompson’s measurables, physical dynamism, and all-around feel are in a different world than Davis’s. Those traits got him on the floor and put him on The Path to Other Improvements with regard to his shot. He’s going to get the time and patience to work on his greatest weakness while getting NBA reps, and Davis isn’t.
The next thing I want to talk about is the contrast between college shooting and NBA shooting. First, there’s the obvious thing, which is that the NBA line is further away from the basket. But the second is that the degree of difficulty is simply higher for NBA shooters. The act of getting open in and of itself proves to be trickier. Even if they are given space or manage to create separation, they’re going to face closeouts from bigger, longer, and more athletic foes. When I go from a college game right into an NBA game during film study, the degree of shooting difficulty is almost always the first thing that pops out. It’s one thing to toe the line and hit a corner triple during a Tuesday night game against Northeast A&M Tech University. It’s another to out-pace an NBA wing off movement before gathering and launching over their outstretched contest.
Ja’Kobe Walter’s shot is what is going to give him the Path to Other Improvements. To be fair, his overall percentage this season wasn’t great. He made 34.1% of his threes. That said, Walter’s shooting priors, his volume from distance, and the variety of NBA-style threes that Walter is able to hit give me a real degree of confidence. During his senior season at Link Academy, Walter converted 37.8% of his threes as a leading option. This season at Baylor, he launched 11.6 triples per 100 possessions, a great mark for a wing prospect. He also thrived on the difficult shots NBA shooters have to hit. Combining Walter’s transition, handoff, off-screen, and pop-man triples, he made 40% of his off-ball movement threes on 85 attempts. Given his proficiency on tougher triples, his 32% mark on spot-up attempts could be an outlier.
But let’s talk about the “how” with Ja’Kobe Walter. His movement looks are a thing of beauty. Baylor utilized him exceptionally well on inbound plays. First off, he does a great job of using misdirection to set up his movements. He’ll often lunge hard in one direction to shake his defender before quickly reversing course to sprint off a screen in another. This shows up within the flow of the game, too, but there’s a real BLOB/ATO utility to him. Walter is thoughtful when it comes to the path his defender has to take. He’ll maximize his space by tucking himself behind screens or shifting his positioning at the last second, complicating his opponent’s path to a contest. He’s a fluid mover, which helps him to slow his momentum and transition easily into his jumper mechanics.
My only real gripe with Walter’s shot is his release point, which can be rather low. He does a great job of elevating on his shot, which helps alleviate this issue to a degree. But his shot is easier to impede when opponents have a clearer path to the ball. I believe this played a role in him shooting 31.6% on guarded catch-and-shoots as opposed to 42.7% on unguarded jumpers off the catch. He gets a little sped up when he has a defender flying at him. If he runs into some trouble shooting out of the gate, I would anticipate this to be the reason.
Still, I remain optimistic about Walter as a shooter. Even if the overall percentage might not scream “long-range threat,” his volume and proficiency off movement do. He’s a calculated and smooth off-ball with an unwavering confidence. There’s an NBA translatability to how he goes about his business in that respect, and that needs to be accounted for when evaluating the rest of his game. Walter’s shooting has the potential to put him on that ever-valuable Path to Other Improvements and should be considered when thinking about any flaws he may have in other departments.
Foul Drawing
Like it or not, drawing fouls is a skill, and Ja’Kobe Walter has it. He had a fantastic free throw rate of .478 this past season, taking 5.2 attempts at the charity stripe per game. Walter’s foul drawing is bolstered by craft and fearlessness. On the interior, Walter does a tremendous job of using shot fakes to get bigs off their feet before careening into them. When he heads downhill, he’s more than welcoming of contact. On the perimeter, he utilizes a technique I call “The Moody,” due to how prolific Moses Moody was as a foul drawer at Arkansas. Basically, Walter does a great job of elongating his body on his jumper attempts, giving opponents who are contesting a shot little choice but to get tied up in his limbs. He’s willing to land and stay put in the face of hard closeouts, embracing the incoming contact of a charging defender. Whether it’s by going to the rack, by forcing you into his body in the mid-range, or by simply allowing you to barrel into him, Walter will find a way to draw a foul. For a near-80% free throw shooter, that’s a great way to get efficient scoring opportunities.
The Interior Dilemma
Ja’Kobe Walter shot 37.6% from the field this year and a meager 42.3% on twos. This issue starts in the mid-range. In halfcourt settings, Walter made only 33.3% of his pull-up twos. His aforementioned low release point certainly doesn’t help him here, either. But his setups are a part of the issue, too. Walter doesn’t have exceptional speed, quick-twitch directional changes, or much of a counter bag at his disposal. As a result, it’s difficult for him to generate separation in what is typically a crowded part of the court. His role as Baylor’s leading scorer forced him into a difficult spot at times, but in other instances, he simply bit off more than he could chew. He’d settle for smothered looks with ample time on the shot clock rather than moving on from the ball. It hurt his numbers, but it’s also a habit that he’ll need to shore up to keep teammates happy at the next level.
The other issue for Walter is that he’s not much of a rim finisher, either. There’s a slew of factors at play here, some of which carry over from his mid-range play. Walter’s lack of dribble moves prevents him from generating more optimal paths to the basket. He doesn’t have the shiftiness or gear-changing acceleration/deceleration to generate clean advantages. He also tends to go up even in heavy traffic here, too. He needs to get better at reading the back line of the defense. As a result, Walter is often finishing up against another body. To make matters worse, he’s not a particularly explosive leaper. Most of his finishes come comfortably below the cup. He seems to prefer gathering and going up off of two feet rather than simply exploding off one foot. This limits his functionality when going from running to jumping, allowing defenders plenty of time to meet him at the rim.
The end result is a very poor rim-finishing statistical profile. Walter was 4-for-18 on transition twos. He didn’t get to the rim very often—only 16.7% of his halfcourt shots were taken at the rim. He struggled on those attempts too, converting only 50.9% of them. Still, I think there’s some room for optimism. Walter’s first step when he’s chased off the line is actually pretty solid. While his handle needs development, it’s not like he’s dribbling off his foot every time he touches the ball. In fact, he’s pretty confident putting it on the deck. Looking at his athletic testing numbers from the Combine, he’s far from the bottom of the list in every category. It’s going to take time, refinement, and rewiring. It’s unlikely that Walter will ever be Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. But there is a path to respectability for him here; given his shooting, that may be the only level he needs to hit to have a long NBA career.
Playmaking
For wings, a dribble-pass-shoot skill set is becoming less of a “that’s really cool” thing and more of a mandatory requirement for reaching higher-end outcomes. I buy Walter as a shooter. As noted above, I have some concerns about his dribbling, but I don’t think he’s outrageously behind the curve in that respect. On paper, Walter’s passing doesn’t fly off the page. He averaged 1.4 APG to 1.3 TOV and posted a red flag level assist rate of 8.1%. Still, I’m higher on Walter than what these numbers would typically suggest for a player this size.
For starters, Walter doesn’t screw up very often. His turnovers were often the result of failing to properly shield the ball in one-on-one settings or while driving into traffic. The first part of that won’t be a requirement out of the gate, and the second is something I believe can be improved in time. When it comes to his passing, Walter actually reads and anticipates the defense pretty well. He doesn’t fall into commonly set traps or try to fit the ball through impossibly tight windows. His 9.1 TOV% shows that he at least won’t make a coach rip his hair out.
What’s more, Walter doesn’t mess around with his deliveries. When he finds an opening, he whips the ball with the requisite speed to reach its intended target in no time. His understanding of angles shines through, too. He showed some creativity with regard to how he got the ball to his teammates. At times, he downright threaded needles to reward the open man. His flashes of vision and acumen at his age (Walter doesn’t turn 20 until September) bode better for him as an eventual set-up man than other low-assist wing prospects like Ochai Agbaji. It may take him some time to check this box, but keep in mind that his shooting should help him get the necessary reps in to achieve that growth.
Defense
Walter isn’t quite a 3-and-D wing, but his defense should be good enough for him to hang if the shot is falling. At times, he can be heavy-footed, and he doesn’t have a quick mirroring first step. He’ll come out of his slide at times, resulting in him having to turn and chase, which isn’t a winning formula given his lack of pop. But when Walter is dedicated to staying in front, he can do a pretty good job at it. That should be a bit easier of a task with a smaller creation burden at the next level.
His 6’10” wingspan and near-200-pound frame will prevent him from being an easy physical target out of the gate despite his age. He loves contact on this side of the ball, too. At his best, he does a great job of throwing his chest onto opponents and using his length to contain opponents or funnel them into danger zones. He’ll bump players off their line and smother them when they pick up their dribble. He’s shown a bit of wiggle to get around ball screens and displays the fight to stay connected. Simply put, I think his physical traits and motor should keep him above board as he devotes more focus to his technique with an NBA coaching staff.
Walter sparked my interest with his off-ball playmaking at times, too. He’s an attentive player, but even better, he’s attentive to who isn’t being attentive. Walter posted a 2.0 STL%, and many of his plays were examples of masterful laziness punishing. Dribbling with your back turned to Walter? Prepare to get your pocket picked. Throwing a hit-ahead in transition without taking the time to survey the floor? That ball is going back the other way. This cleverness shows a real level of feel and anticipation that’s difficult to teach.
Walter might not have the defensive punch that someone like Dillon Brooks had when he entered the league. He’s not much of a shot blocker, he’s a run-of-the-mill rebounder, and he doesn’t have the tools to be a lockdown guy. But Walter is still on solid ground. He’s got a good frame, he competes, and he knows how to take advantage of the mistakes of his opponents. That gives an NBA team something to work with long-term.
The Outlook
At the start of the year, Ja’Kobe Walter was a hot, buzzy name. Now, his stock seems to be fading a bit. That’s not entirely unfair. A sub-6’6” wing who isn’t a stellar defender and has run-of-the-mill playmaking chops who shot under 40% from the field isn’t a sexy sell. But I do think that among some scouts, the pendulum has swung too far in that direction. Walter has a rock-solid frame, a signature skill in his movement shooting, and he’s a low-mistake player. That might not be sexy either, but it’s not nothing.
Getting up that volume of threes as a freshman wing at a high-major program in itself bodes well for his NBA production. On paper, he compares very similar to Gary Trent Jr. coming out of Duke. Trent hit a higher percentage of his threes but was also a high-volume shooter. Trent got to the rim even less than Walter and finished worse when there. Defensively, his advanced numbers weren’t anything to write home about Cam Thomas, Luke Kennard, and Moses Moody fit that same mold as well. This isn’t to entirely hand waive the struggles that Walter had, but it’s worth noting that they are relatively common issues for players of his archetype.
Maybe teams don’t want to draft that type of player that high. I get that. But at a certain point, you could do a whole lot worse. Walter’s game needs a lot more contextualizing. He was thrown into the deep end of the pool as a freshman at Baylor. Still, he never folded. His teammates trusted him. He won a lot of games. We’ve seen players with similar statistical profiles stick multiple times in recent years. Sure, maybe he’s not going to be a dynamic, takeover scorer. But he still checks important NBA boxes. His shooting is likely going to put him on The Path to Other Improvements, and that gives him an avenue to be a much more well-rounded player than he is now. In a class like this one, I see Walter as a mid-to-late first round pick who will be around for a long time.