Rob Dillingham: NBA Jam Mode
When Kentucky Wildcats guard Rob Dillingham is "heating up," you'd better hope he's on your team.
NBA Jam has been a religion for basketball fans.
We can be sitting on our couch watching games as fans or playing a friendly game of pick-up hoops before quickly shouting out “he’s heating up!”
It’s been a staple of our lives as basketball obsessors. When a player can completely take over a game, we immediately stop everything we are doing and ask for time to progress slower.
We grab our phones to quickly throw texts to group messages. “Turn on the game, this guy is going nuts.” We scatter to find our remotes to frantically change the channel and get a taste of an artist painting a beautiful canvas right in front of our eyes. Scoring is sexy. We gravitate towards individuals who can collect buckets with relative ease. We watch these players with laser-like focus, before turning on the highlights a day later to try to relive the high we just experienced.
There have been plenty of questions about the incoming draft class. But one thing is for certain when it comes to the players in 2024…
If you’re looking for a player who can get into “NBA-Jam” mode…
Rob Dillingham is your guy.
Coming into the 2023-24 NCAA season, there was plenty of intrigue about Dillingham. But that didn’t necessarily mean that the talented guard was considered a potential Top 10 selection. Dillingham was known to be lightning in a bottle—an undersized guard who showed the ability to be a threat offensively when it came to scoring in bunches. Once considered the 15th-best high school prospect in the country (via ESPN), Dillingham spent some time playing in the OTE, where his ability with the ball in his hands was on full display.
How will this translate? Can an undersized microwave scorer be desired at the NBA level?
Some might not agree with the predetermined verdict of Dillingham coming into the year. In 14 games while playing with the OTE, Dillingham averaged 14.7 points, 4.9 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and 2.5 steals per game in 27.6 minutes. During that same span, he shot 33.3% from the field and 31.9% from three. The playing style was under plenty of debate with the OTE last year, but it’s clear that the talent and tools were thrilling. Eventually, Dillingham committed to playing at Kentucky, which piqued the attention of draft evaluators.
We’ve seen plenty of guards go to Kentucky in recent years before eventually unlocking something in their game. Dillingham seemed to be the next project in line for John Calipari. Little did we know then that Dillingham would be one of the last guards that Calipari was grooming for the NBA while with the Wildcats. It didn’t take long for Dillingham to make a statement to the basketball world. After his first seven games, the Kentucky freshman was averaging 15.4 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 5.7 assists per game in 23.0 minutes. During that span, Dillingham shot 52.6% from the field and 53.3% from downtown.
As the season went on, we saw continued to see just how dangerous Rob could be on the offensive side of the ball. Sure, the questions continued to surface when it came to Dillingham at the next level. Yes, you’ll find you’re the 3,000,000th person to mention he’s undersized. The strength will be another question moving forward—especially after he weighed in at 164 pounds at the NBA Draft combine recently.
But when Rob Dillingham is on a heater, he’s the most dangerous weapon in the 2024 NBA draft class.
First 7 Games:
15.4 PTS | 4.4 REB | 5.7 AST | 1.6 STL
52.6 FG% | 53.3 3P% | 75.0 FT%
10.9 FGA | 4.3 3PA | 2.3 FTA
Next 12 Games:
13.5 PTS | 2.4 REB | 2.8 AST | 1.1 STL
42.6 FG% | 29.6 3P% | 76.9 FG%
11.3 FGA | 4.5 3PA | 3.3 FTA
Last 13 Games:
16.6 PTS | 2.6 REB | 3.9 AST | 0.7 STL
49.3 FG% | 53.3 3P% | 83.7 FT%
11.5 FGA | 4.6 3PA | 3.3 FTA
There was plenty of growth with Dillingham throughout the year, but the scoring was never going to be a question for Rob. Evaluators were expecting him to be a potential firework ready to explode in the backcourt. The efficiency shown throughout the year though, paired with the beautiful strides in playmaking, was something that hit like a damn hammer.
When evaluating an offensive prospect like Rob, you like to see how he can impact the game when things aren’t going his way. One of Rob’s notable games in which he struggled this year game in an upset loss against UNC Wilmington. Dillingham would finish that game with just two points, on 1-of-9 shooting in 24 minutes. His next three games? Dillingham averaged 15.5 points, 2.8 assists, and 1.8 steals per game while shooting 44.9% from the field.
The crafty guard would have his “struggles” in the middle of the year during a 12-game stretch, as noted above. But he would respond to that with one of his best stretches over the year, finishing strong over the final 13 games of the season.
When you take a look at Dillingham’s advanced numbers, you can get excited as well.
Advanced Numbers (via Synergy)
Spot Up: 97th Percentile
Pick-and-Roll Ball-Handler: 89th Percentile
Jump Shot: 93rd Percentile
Catch and Shoot: 98th Percentile
Guarded: 96th Percentile
Unguarded: 90th Percentile
Dribble Jumper: 82nd Percentile
Runner: 88th Percentile
There are clearly some exciting areas that can get an offensive-minded team twirling their mustaches while leaning back in their office chair like an evil cartoon character. Dillingham is the ultimate inner battle of what side of the fence are you on. You have a dangerous offensive microwave weapon, gifted with tremendous handles and shot-making ability on one side—a player who can simply see the ball go through the net one time before realizing “it’s party time.” When Dillingham gets on a heater, you’ve got one of the most dangerous players on the court.
But with that comes the other side of the fence. Dillingham was listed this year by Kentucky’s website at 6’3” and 176 pounds. It was a number that got the attention of plenty of scouts in the NBA world. There was plenty of buzz about Dillingham’s added strength throughout Kentucky’s offseason, pairing that with a rumored weight gain. Despite all of that buzz, plenty around the draft world started to wonder if the numbers could be part of the “favorable” measurements that happen often within the world of college basketball.
The draft world waited anxiously for the 2024 NBA Draft combine to get an official measurement on hand for Dillingham. The results?
6’1” without shoes. 6’3” wingspan. 164.2 pounds.
As I said before, there are two sides to this inner battle. An NBA team can be all-in on the spectacular gifts that Dillingham has at his disposal. In terms of raw firepower, Dillingham is everything a team could look for when you’re heading into a draft looking for a “boost” in your rotation. Given his strides as a playmaker this year, that boost looks to have even more upside than previously imagined.
But the other side cannot be ignored as well. Strength is something that is often thrown around when it comes to evaluating prospects. The realization is, that sometimes, we underestimate how important strength is for adjusting to life at the NBA level. If you’ve ever gone to an NBA game in person, you might not realize it at first, but the physicality of the league is overwhelming. Grown men are battling like gladiators in the Roman Colosseum to do everything in their power to pull off a victory. In some instances, players can use their God-given abilities to overcome some deficiencies in other areas. But for some positions, strength is going to have to come into the conversation—especially when it comes to life on the defensive side of the ball.
It’d be one thing for a player like Dillingham to be thin-framed, especially if the height wasn’t in question. Listed at 6’1” without shoes, we can “round” up to saying that Dillingham is most likely around 6’2”. Here are some similar NBA players from the previous season that can be found in that similar ballpark.
Jacob Gilyard (BKN): 5’9”, 160
Terquavion Smith (76ers): 6’4”, 160
Trae Young (Hawks): 6’1”, 164
Xavier Moon (LAC): 6’0”, 165
Isaiah Joe (OKC): 6’3”, 165
Bones Hyland (LAC): 6’2”, 169
Scotty Pippen Jr (MEM) 6’1”, 170
Kira Lewis Jr (UTA): 6’1”, 170
Dennis Schroder: 6’1”, 172
Ja Morant (MEM): 6’2”, 174
Chris Paul (GSW): 6’0”, 175
Mike Conley (MIN): 6’1”, 175
Malachi Flynn (DET): 6’1”, 175
Jordan Ford (SAC): 6’1”, 175
You can go through that list and be pleasantly surprised. You can also look at some of those names and see some reason why the lack of strength has been countered by another area. Ja Morant might be on this list, but his freak-of-nature athleticism has gone a long way to counter out that concern. But there are plenty of names that leave you wondering…why couldn’t Dillingham carve out a similar career to this guy…at least?
“Boomshakalaka”
Friendly advice…The rest of this is going to be much more enjoyable if you read each title in the legendary voice of NBA Jam’s Tim Kitzrow.
You’re going to see plenty of instances on tape of some of the magnificent creativity that Rob Dillingham possesses when getting downhill. He can alter his shots to avoid defenders with the best of them. Dillingham is an artist with his ability to react to defenders in a split second and make them look foolish.
This is not an example of that. This is a clip to set the tone for the rest of this film. Dillingham gets an outlet from Reed Sheppard and shows you that there’s a bit more to his game than just measurements.
“Razzle Dazzle”
You’ve been told how electric Rob Dillingham is with the ball in his hands. Somehow, that continues to be an understatement. Dillingham has a rare gift of using his change of gears to create tight windows of separation with relative ease. He can throw it into third gear before downshifting and exploding quickly into fifth. You can smother him with ball pressure, but Dillingham welcomes the chaos and relishes it.
This is an unreal sequence here from Rob, who sets his primary defender up beautifully. Notice how the LSU defender is initially trying to send Dillingham to the left side. Rob hits him with a quick rip-through before pushing him to the right and creating a bigger lane to attack on the left side. After a sweet dribble sequence, Dillingham understands he’s got his defender off-balance at the point of attack. Because of that initial sequence to create the additional space, LSU’s help defender is in no-mans-land, as he can’t collapse completely off of Kentucky teammate Reed Sheppard. This creates a window for Dillingham to put the afterburners on and get downhill in a hurry. So how does a 6’2”, 164-pound guard finish when attacking the trees? Well, he does what he does best. He improvises and goes right up the middle. Rob gets both bigs to commit before altering his shot in midair for a fantastic finish.
“Oh It’s A Party Up in Here Now”
We’ve talked plenty already about the weight and strength concerns that Dillingham might have with some evaluators. But we haven’t focused on the mindset of the player. Dillingham might get the undersized tag by many, but he makes up for it with his relentlessness and desire to get to the basket. He’s fearless when he has a head of steam, welcoming any opponent that wants to challenge him.
Another beautiful dribble sequence here to get his defender off balance before Rob quickly hits the turbo button. Rob understands timing and when is the ideal time to attack. After that, he has the fantastic touch around the basket needed to finish with an assortment of goodies.
“This Is My House And I Did Not Invite You”
I love this play because it’s something that should continue to ring loudly in the heads of doubters. This is Dillingham going at someone who is reportedly 40 pounds heavier than his listed current weight. He gets some momentum and shows the toughness to go right at the defender to create a window for an easy two.
If you lack a strength in one area, you can attempt to “hide” that strength if you have a dominant skill in another. Rob possesses elite quickness and shiftiness. If you can pair that with a fearless mindset, you’re cooking with gas.
“He’s Heating Up!”
Love this sequence from Rob Dillingham because it shows just what a potential nightmare he can be for a defender. You find yourself getting tired just watching him run all over the floor. Dillingham takes his primary defender off the bounce, who does a great job of staying with him. After an initial pass, Rob gets the ball back before quickly setting up that same defender with a hesitation away from the on-ball screen.
At the snap of a finger, Rob gets downhill with his speed before showcasing his beautiful touch with the float game. Rob started this play with 27 seconds on the shot clock at almost halfcourt on the other side of the floor. Two passes and an attack later, he’s finishing for two in a total of nine seconds.
“Heating Up Like A Trending Topic”
Here’s another sequence just showing how dangerous Dillingham can be with the ball in his hands, especially in the open court. The primary defender here knows that a potential on-ball is coming, so he tries to put himself in position early to prevent a potential open three. Rob welcomes the invitation, quickly throwing a counter and getting downhill in a hurry. Before you know it, he’s only got one help defender to deal with. Rob doesn’t lose a step, before going right into the body of the big man and shielding himself off to finish with flare.
“He’s On Fire”
This is one of my favorite sequences from Rob because it shows you some elite areas. We’ve talked before about just how dangerous the change of speeds can be, but this is one of my favorite clips that hammers home that example. Too many times with young guards, you’ll see that they can lose some speed when trying to get in and out of their dribble sequences. With Dillingham, it’s the complete opposite. He can reach top speed and hit you with a counter and it looks like he barely loses a step. Beautiful cross here before getting downhill and finishing on the right side of the hoop, away from the help defender.
“Here It Comes”
The playmaking from Rob Dillingham was one of the most impressive developments for evaluators throughout the 2023-24 NCAA season. We all expected that Rob would come in and light the nets on fire. But what really got us in our feelings was the vision and feel he put on display throughout the year.
Playmaking guards don’t just develop anticipation and feel. There are simply some parts of the game that you’re just either born with or not. Rob Dillingham was born to be a playmaker. He’s got plenty of instances on tape in which he can see an opening developing before the defense does, before throwing a bullet pass for an open shooter in the opposite corner. Here’s a beautiful yet simple read from Dillingham, who hits a cutting Justin Edwards for an easy two.
“That Was Too Easy”
I love it when playmakers can react and dish. A pair of clips here from Dillingham do a great job of demonstrating that. The first is a beautiful job by Rob of getting the defense to fall apart. Rob gets an initial pass from Reed Sheppard before hitting the closing defender with an initial shot fake. Once he realizes the defender is out of position, Dillingham quickly attacks the lane. A pair of Mississippi State defenders collapse to help on Rob before he anticipates and throws a gorgeous dump-off to Aaron Bradshaw for a monster slam.
The next is something that personally gets me in my feelings as an evaluator watching playmakers. Can you create and make the defense collapse before realizing where the opening is in the defense? Can you create a window for a teammate based on your instincts and ability to draw attention? Rob gets the ball on the break before analyzing the defense and attacking the lane. Once the defense collapses, he understands that his teammate Antonio Reeves should be wide-open for an easy look.
“Puts The Boom In His Shakalaka”
I wanted to make sure to spotlight some instances of Rob Dillingham going to work in the pick-and-roll game. Three clips total here, all showing the ability Rob has to adapt and react. Beautiful two-man game in the first clip here with Rob and former Kentucky big man Zvonimir Ivisic. Rob waits for the perfect timing on this sequence before hitting Ivisic in stride for an easy two.
The second clip eventually results in a high on-ball screen, but Dillingham reacts to the primary defender trying to position himself to cause interference. That’s when he quickly puts on the burners and attacks the opening in the lane. When the Arkansas defense reacts and collapses, Dillingham quickly analyzes before throwing a beautiful lob to Justin Edwards. The final clip is covered well, but it just shows the pinpoint accuracy and timing that Dillingham has when throwing into tight windows.
There’s going to be plenty of intrigue with the 2024 NBA Draft class as we’ve officially reached ONE WEEK until Draft night. There’s been buzz and uncertainty with plenty of prospects this year. Kentucky Wildcats freshman Rob Dillingham might not be a perfect prospect in the eyes of some evaluators. There’s no denying that some could have questions moving forward when it comes to his ceiling and role, given his “undersized” tag. At the end of the day, the NBA Draft is about finding a player who could give you an advantage on any given night if that talent finds their groove. Dillingham might not be the perfect point guard prospect for some teams.
But for others, he could become one of the most dangerous offensive weapons in this class.
When Rob Dillingham enters “NBA Jam” mode, teams are going to hope that he’s on their side.