Rob Dillingham's Non-Astrological Star Signs
Rob Dillingham's Non-Astrological Star Signs
Few draft outcomes are written in the stars, but after his early eruption for the Kentucky Wildcats, does Rob Dillingham have more potential at the NBA level than many thought possible?
This is a safe space (and technically an article), so you can admit it: from time to time, you too take a look at your horoscope. Whether it’s frustration with work, personal relationships, life direction, or just wanting to get a leg up on the weak, turning to the stars is a common practice that is often shrouded in great reverence or ridicule.
While astrology can’t tell you which NBA draft prospects are destined for star futures, stats and film can…or at least give you a reading on what to look for with young players. Few draft prospects end up as stars at the next level, instead slotting in as role players or starters, but all players have small indicators of their ultimate ceiling.
It’s not always the most obvious candidates that become stars, either. Take Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Giannis Antetokounmpo, or Jimmy Butler; none of these players were projected to star in the pre-draft process. Instead, what all stars have as draft prospects are signs, sometimes incredibly faint, that they possess potentially elite attributes that could make them stars one day.
The 2024 draft class is considered a class short on these players. Instead of this dreary diagnosis, I’d argue that a handful of prospects are flashing potentially elite skills that could help them towards stardom. The issue is that these players also have glaring weaknesses, making it hard to project them as future All-Star players.
With such a topsy-turvy draft class, it’s worth looking into the less-heralded players to find the flashes that could ignite a surprise star. While he has several factors working against him, few college freshmen have done more to change the narrative about their future prospects than Rob Dillingham. He has shown in his short time at Kentucky that not only does he likely have an NBA future, but he could be a star if enough goes right for him in The Association.
The Initial Reading on Rob
Despite his lack of lottery buzz, Rob Dillingham is one of the more well-known draft prospects in the 2024 class. Some of that has to do with basketball, but as much involves the social media buzz and his unique journey to get to Kentucky.
Dillingham started at Combine Academy in high school and gained some early recruiting buzz. He then had a short stint at Kanye West’s Donda Academy before joining the Cold Heartz of Overtime Elite. Along the way, Dillingham’s style of play and brash attitude made him a social media star while clouding exactly who he was as a basketball player.
It’s worth cutting through the smoke and retweets to get down to who Rob Dillingham is as a hooper: he stands somewhere between 6’1” and 6’3”, is barely 175 pounds soaking wet, and relies almost entirely on the offensive end for his appeal as a prospect. A feverish mix of ball handling, downhill speed, and a quick release make one of the more overtly modern guard prospects we’ve seen in the past few years.
Last year, Dillingham served as the lead ball-handler for the Cold Heartz to mostly mixed results. Per game, he averaged 14.7 points, 4.9 assists, 3.8 rebounds, 2.5 steals, and 3.5 turnovers while shooting 33.3% from the field and 31.9% from beyond the arc. Make no mistake: a 1.4 assist-to-turnover ratio, 34.3% mark from two-point range, and 31.9% hit rate on 5.8 three-pointers a game paints a poor picture of Dillingham in an already-confusing high school league like OTE, and that’s before any defensive shortcomings are factored in.
Yet, despite the warning signs that Dillingham was more style than substance, he’s pulled a magic trick and started off his season with Kentucky by playing winning basketball. As the team’s sixth man, Dillingham is averaging 13.8 points, 5.4 assists, 4.4 rebounds, 1.5 steals, and just 1.6 turnovers per game. He’s also doing so with great efficiency, shooting 47.2% from the two-point range and a whopping 50% from deep on 4.0 attempts per game.
This shocking heel turn is so irregular that it requires a deeper dive. How did Rob Dillingham go from an inefficient chucker to an efficient and deadly guard in a single offseason? The truth lies in how he prepared himself and stepped up and stepped back so far this season for the Wildcats. More importantly, with how he’s playing for Kentucky, Dillingham has forced the conversation to not just be about whether he’ll make the NBA or not but whether there’s a world where he could be a star one day.
Microwave in Retrograde
The obvious can’t be overstated: Dillingham has detonated several negative narratives over the course of a summer and the first few weeks of college basketball. Many expected him to drag Kentucky down. Instead, alongside fellow reserve guard Reed Sheppard, Dillingham has helped swing at least half of the games this season in Kentucky’s favor.
Just like in high school, it all starts on the offensive end for Dillingham. He’s a livewire dribbler with a cadre of crossovers that help him generate space. Due to his slight build, Dillingham is lightning-quick and has the handle to match. He’s offered a change of pace to the DJ Wagner-Antonio Reeves backcourt when he’s on the floor by supercharging the pace of the Kentucky offense.
Much of what made Dillingham famous still forms the backbone of his game. He darts around screens, screams into the lane for layups, and pulls up from deep beyond the arc early in the shot clock. The difference, it seems, is that Dillingham’s natural talents are allowed to flourish with an improved supporting cast.
Take a look at some of Dillingham’s jumpers last year compared to this year, for example. Dillingham has already shot 20 catch-and-shoot three-pointers in the first six games for the Wildcats, compared to the 31 he took all year at OTE. On the Cold Heartz, it was hard for Dillingham to get enough separation from his man to launch from deep, which led to tougher pull-ups even though he shot 37% on 54 pull-up threes. His catch-and-shoot numbers were ghastly, however, as he only hit 19.4% of his 31 triples.
With Kentucky, Dillingham has more than enough space to do damage from deep. He’s also made an important change, as more of his three-point attempts are coming in the flow of the offense or off of the catch instead of the frequent pull-up Js that he sprayed with aplomb at OTE. It’s still early, but Dillingham has hit 50% of his catch-and-shoot threes while also hitting 41.7% of his pull-up jumpers from beyond the arc.
Dillingham still has the same quick and balanced jumper that hurts defenses inside and outside the arc. Due to his decreased shot diet and his own choices to be more judicious, Dillingham has trimmed the fat and only taken good looks, which has helped his efficiency skyrocket.
Just because he’s more methodical doesn’t mean Dillingham has lost his desire to drive. He’s still the best guard Kentucky has at using his handle and athleticism to get to the rim, even though he looks diminutive next to his teammates. Even though he’s small, Dillingham took the underrated step of shoring up his strength in his first collegiate offseason.
While the numbers weren’t perfect, Dillingham probably weighed 155-160 pounds as a high school senior. As he was already fighting against his height, that weight led to Dillingham not keeping his dribble alive and getting his shots inside affected. Dillingham reportedly put on a chunk of muscle, as he’s now listed at 176 pounds, and it shows on his drives and finishes.
Prior to his worst game of the season against UNC Wilmington, Dillingham had hit 60.9% of his layup attempts, a slight but important improvement over the 55.6% he shot at OTE last year. It’s not a massive bump, but even just that increase represents the type of growth that could take Dillingham from an okay offensive prospect to a potential weapon for teams.
That’s not to say he’s become a finishing machine; the only way that’ll happen is if he copies Kyrie Irving’s layup package to a T. Instead, Dillingham’s drives are now more reliable and less likely to be altered by his slight frame. It’s hard to quantify, but strength is one of the key attiributes that defines the successes and failures of many a draft prospect.
To go from such an inefficient player to a razor-like weapon is partially statistical noise, as Dillingham has only played six games against varying degrees of opponents. Still, you can’t write off his stellar results as just a hot streak. By limiting his bad shots and building strength, Dillingham enhanced his brilliant offensive bones and gave them some much-needed meat.
Ascendant Assist Man
Sure, the star signs for Dillingham are there as a scorer, but that’s not all it takes to be a star at the next level. For somone of Dillingham’s size, he’s got to also make an impact as a passer. That’s always been a part of his game, but it’s never been as actualized and dangerous as it is now for Kentucky.
Again, the jump for Dillingham is stark. In 2022, while playing AAU alongside GG Jackson and Aden Holloway, Dillingham only had a 1.25 assist-to-turnover ratio. Last year, his assist-to-turnover ratio was a paltry 1.06. There wasn’t much on tape or by the numbers to believe that Dillingham was a plus-passing player.
Shockingly, this year, his assist-to-turnover ratio has ballooned to 3.07 in the early slate with an amazing 38.5% assist percentage. From a pure numbers perspective, that’s not because Dillingham is suddenly slinging better assists. Instead, just like with his scoring, Dillingham has cut out the dead weight from his passing in the form of his turnovers.
How’s he done it? It hasn’t been too drastic of a change to what makes him a special on-ball player. Some of Dillingham’s assists have the same spunk and pizazz he’s had his whole career.
At the same time, even the snakebitten Wildcats roster has offered Dillingham more simplified reads with his passes. He plays most of his minutes with plus shooters like Antonio Reeves and Reed Sheppard, which gives him natural outlets on the wings. He has a pick-and-pop threat in Tre Mitchell, who can also finish anywhere in the paint off of dump-offs. Even Jordan Burks, currently miscast as a mini-ball four-man, has gotten a smattering of Dillingham dishes.
Taking what the defense gives him and not overcomplicating his approach has changed Dillingham from a theoretical floor general to an actual one. He’s not yet controlling the game like DJ Wagner does with the starters, but he’s not far off. That’s a massive accomplishment, especially when many thought that Dillingham’s passing was just a case of smoke and mirrors.
For him to take the next step, Dillingham must graduate from just making the right pass to creating the window for the right one on his own. Part of that will come from his scoring, as defenses will have no choice but to key in on him if he keeps shredding the nets. That’ll allow him to utilize his handle to unlock passing angles that even his teammates can’t see, which Dillingham occasionally shows when attacking defenses.
It’s a simple step up in concept but a monumental one in practice for Dillingham. The ability to create passing windows is done by the Lebrons and the Lukas, with others like Tyrese Haliburton and Trae Young ascending to that level. I don’t think Rob Dillingham will ever get “there” as a passer, but the floor he’s already shown makes him a viable option at point guard in the NBA and hints at the at least slim potential for him to be much more.
Backcourt Conjunction
I touched on it before, but part of what’s been so helpful for Dillingham in the early goings has been his Kentucky teammates. Even though the Wildcats are missing their three centers, Dillingham has played some of the best ball of his career.
Operating primarily next to Reed Sheppard has given Kentucky a versatile two-point guard look. That combination not only wings college games but also alludes to what the NBA is like. Only in the case of the truly incandescent heliocentric stars is there ever a single player who could be the primary ball-handler. Instead, NBA offenses are predicated on most guards, some wings, and a few centers being able to organize the offense.
Dillingham can play off-ball in most lineups as a skilled spot-up shooter from deep who can get his shots off quickly. He’ll have to be hidden on the defensive end, but he wouldn’t be the first guard to bring enough offense to justify his defense. Alongside the shooting, Dillingham’s creation can either come against a bent defense or, in time, be what’s bending the defense in the first place.
To consider what Dillingham must do to be a star at the next level, it’s important to consider what players of his stature look like. As a skinny sub-6’3” point guard, Dillingham is likely one of the last of a dying breed. He doesn’t fit into the mold of Jose Alvarado, TJ McConnell, Patrick Beverly, or Jevon Carter, all of whom are undersized but dogs on defense.
He also doesn’t exactly match the stocky, compact offensive engine build like Damian Lillard, Kyrie Irving, or Jalen Brunson. Dillingham has added weight but doesn’t have the same body type as those aforementioned stars. Instead, Dillingham looks more like players like Tyrese Maxey, Fred VanVleet, Darius Garland, and Mike Conley.
That’s not to say Dillingham is on the same star path as any of these players. In contrast, it represents his hard path to stardom, even with his small signs. He will never be the defender VanVleet or Conley are, which caps his ceiling. That leaves the Maxey/Garland model, which is only sustainable at the NBA level since both are elite pull-up shooters and some of the fastest guards in the league.
For Dillingham to be a star, he must follow in their footsteps. His pull-up jumper, which he’s limited to help his efficiency, will have to come back in full force as a game-bending weapon. Dillingham will also have to build strength without sacrificing his lateral or straight-line speed, a tough trade-off to trying to thread.
It’s not impossible, but it’s also not likely. Few players of Dillingham’s stature can star in today’s NBA. To get there, Dillingham’s best bet is to become an unignorable dribble shooter and a blur in the lane who can get to the cup on a whim.
Dillingham’s Denouement
The previous section’s goal was not to throw a damp towel over Dillingham’s Kentucky season. On the contrary, the fact that we can talk about what Rob Dillingham needs to do to be a star and not just an NBA player represents the immense work he’s put into the floor of his game.
At this point, with few settled draft prospects in any tier, it’s safer to assume that Dillingham will not only get drafted but will get serious first round looks. That’s a testament to taking the flashes from his game and putting a cohesive framework of fundamentals behind them.
Even if he isn’t a star, I’d feel comfortable drafting Rob Dillingham in the first round and adding him to a guard room. His offensive package has equal promise and product, just edging out that he needs to be constantly hidden on defense. Unless Dillingham can put on more weight and hold his own on defensive rotations, he will always be a lopsided player.
There are a handful of guards in the NBA, like Trae Young and Tyrese Haliburton, who are net-negative defenders with such deep and impactful bags that it doesn’t matter, but that archetype is dying on the vine. There’s still time for Dillingham to be that. However, given the star signs he’s shown so far, it isn’t unbelievable to put in Dillingham’s future horoscope that he’s destined for eventual NBA stardom and not just a bench role for a professional team.