Ryan Conwell: The Modern Shooter
Louisville guard Ryan Conwell is likely to play on his fifth team in five years when he begins his NBA journey after the 2026 NBA Draft. Where will his elite shooting take him next?
Ryan Conwell entered this season with less to prove than he has had in many a year. As a three-star recruit out of Pike High School in Indianapolis, Conwell wasn’t exactly overwhelmed with college offers. His journey over the next three seasons showcased the benefits of the new environment in college basketball, as he continued to prove himself and work his way up. After an up-and-down freshman year, Conwell returned home and went to Indiana State for his sophomore campaign. After a remarkably impressive year (starting all 38 games and averaging 16.6 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 2.5 assists per game on 48/41/86 shooting splits), Conwell moved up to the Big East to ply his craft for Xavier. Following another excellent season from long range, Conwell entered the transfer portal again and made his way to Louisville. With a season of high-major competition under his belt and a clear place as the second banana behind star freshman Mikel Brown Jr., Conwell was set up for success.
Unfortunately for Conwell and Louisville, though, Brown Jr. missed a significant portion of the season—including Louisville’s conference and NCAA Tournament games. Conwell was suddenly tasked with being the focal point of the offense for a team with serious aspirations; despite the increased burden of expectations, Conwell stepped in much more comfortably than expected. He finished the year averaging 18.8 points, 4.8 rebounds, 2.5 assists, and 1.1 steals per game on 41/35/83 shooting splits, with a double-take inducing 9.6 3PA per game. Conwell led the #23-ranked Cardinals in scoring while keeping their postseason hopes alive, even without Brown in the picture.
His shooting splits this past season at Louisville weren’t as impressive as his overall 43/38/84 splits for his college career, but only looking at the splits misses the forest for the trees. First of all, it is no coincidence that Conwell’s worst month from beyond the arc (January) was also when Mikel Brown Jr. missed time in the regular season due to his back injury. There aren’t many players (outside of the clear top players in the draft) who had to carry as much of the offense for a tournament-caliber team as Conwell did in the middle of the season. Louisville fans will be quite familiar with the “Conwell: 17 points on 6-of-13 shooting; all other Louisville players: 13 points on 5-of-27 shooting” style of graphics from college basketball film crews trying to drive the stake in deeper.
More than that, though, Conwell’s steady growth over his four college seasons and consistently elite free-throw numbers indicate that his touch is top-shelf. Furthermore, Conwell’s ability to knock down shots as the top player on the scouting report bodes well for what he can do at the next level—not to mention his excellent synergy with Brown and Conwell’s relentless off-ball activity on offense.
Shooting in the NBA is no longer just about standing in the corner or on the wing and waiting for the ball to swing your way. True shooting threats have to be able to create space for themselves, keep the ball moving, and force defenses to pay attention when they’re forced off the line. Conwell is the opposite of a one-trick pony kind of shooter; he has every kind of shot in his arsenal, and has proven that he can have enough of the offense run through him to keep defenses guessing. His shooting toolkit is complete, and he’ll have plenty of chances to show that next year—wherever his journey and his jump shot take him next. So…let’s dive deep!
Offense: A Complete Shooter
The place to begin with Ryan Conwell is clearly with his elite shooting. The lefty has great touch and is remarkably consistent in his form, whether shooting from a standstill or on the move.
The question from there, though, is more interesting: what kind of shooting are you looking for in a prospect? The good news here is that Ryan Conwell checks every shooting box out there.
Do you want a prototypical spot-up flamethrower? Check. Conwell ranked in the 84th percentile on spot-ups this season per Synergy, averaging a stellar 1.129 points per possession on those looks and taking more than a few of them from parking lot range. Do you want a relentless off-ball threat? Check. Conwell ranked in the 61st percentile in shooting off screens this season, and the film speaks even more positively to that aspect of his game; Conwell is almost always in motion on offense, and he sets solid screens himself in addition to running around them with aplomb. How about handoffs? Check. Conwell ranked in the 67th percentile on those looks, making Mikel Brown Jr.’s life much easier by consistently running behind pick-and-rolls at the top of the key and giving Brown an easy dump-off option. It wasn’t just Brown creating looks for Conwell, though; Conwell was quite effective on his own as well, ranking in the 70th percentile on off-the-dribble jumpers. No matter what kind of shooting threat your team needs on the wing, Conwell can be that guy:
Conwell’s immense shooting gravity forces defenses to guard him closely on the perimeter, which leaves open opportunities for cuts. Conwell takes full advantage of those opportunities; he averaged a ridiculous 1.724 points per possession on cuts, per Synergy, putting him in the 98th percentile.
His overall offense at the rim was strictly mediocre, though (Conwell ranked in the 48th percentile in at-rim finishing), and he is purely a below-the-rim athlete; Conwell had zero dunks this season and just one total for his college career. While he has solid heft for a 6’4” guard, his lack of vertical athleticism is concerning in terms of his ability to finish at the basket at the NBA level. Still, he shows a solid handle, good craft, and great decision-making around the rim to create brief windows for himself to score around the basket:
Conwell didn’t run too many pick-and-roll possessions when Brown was healthy, but he did still run quite a few pick-and-rolls with Brown out; his two-man game with Sananda Fru was a staple of the Louisville offense, especially when Brown was injured. Conwell ranked in the 69th percentile on those pick-and-roll plays; many of those were self-generated triples created by Conwell dribbling away from the pick, but he did create a few looks for others when running those sets or when running out in transition. Conwell’s playmaking didn’t shine as brightly with Brown running the show, but Conwell is a good decision-maker who has shown enough passing flashes to be a potentially viable secondary or tertiary creation threat:
Ultimately, Conwell checks every box that teams look for in shooting threats, aside from size. While a 6’8” version of Conwell would easily be a lottery pick, that version of Conwell also wouldn’t have had the long journey through college basketball that has given Conwell his chances to develop. His shooting is potent enough to get him on the floor, as long as he can keep up defensively. The good news on that front is that Conwell has shown encouraging signs of being able to be a solid cog in a defensive scheme.
Defense: Playing His Part
When a player is tasked with a larger role in the offensive game plan, their defensive effort tends to suffer. That is not the case with Ryan Conwell. Despite his relative lack of size and his limited vertical pop, Conwell is as relentless when getting around screens defensively as he is when getting around screens offensively. He might not have the prototypical height for a wing, but he leverages his strength and sturdy frame to turn plays that look like mismatches in the post to his advantage.
In addition to his strength, Conwell’s motor is always running; he seems to enjoy getting in front of opponents and making their lives difficult. He’s not a crazy defensive playmaker, but he can dart in for on-ball steals and get into passing lanes occasionally. More importantly, he has the skill set and effort to be a valuable part of a defensive scheme:
The defensive metrics also point to Conwell being a plus defender—he ranked in the 61st percentile defensively, per Synergy, limiting opponents to just 0.860 points per possession. He also ranked eighth in the ACC in Defensive Win Shares this past season.
Arguably, Conwell’s biggest defensive weakness is that his effort level on defense can be overdone at times. He averaged 2.8 fouls per game this past season, and led the MVC in fouls during his season at Indiana State—though for what it’s worth, that was his best defensive season across multiple advanced metrics (Defensive Win Shares, Defensive BPM, and Defensive Rating, among others). Ultimately, though, Conwell’s effort defensively more than makes up for his over-aggressiveness. If he can dial it back just a touch in that area, he can be a plus defender at the NBA level sooner rather than later.
Future Outlook
Ryan Conwell recently declared for the 2026 NBA Draft, and it seems quite likely at this point that he will stay in the draft; he did not mention the transfer portal in his draft declaration, which these days all but guarantees that he will not be playing NCAA basketball next season.
At this point, Conwell appears to be solidly in the mid-second round mix. He was 43rd on the most recent No Ceilings BIG Board and 47th on our most recent Mock Draft; ESPN’s Jeremy Woo had Conwell 46th on his most recent board, and Sam Vecenie mocked Conwell to the Raptors with the 49th pick in his March Mock Draft.
With all of that in mind, Conwell is just about the picture-perfect mid-second round pick for any team looking to pick up a solid rotation player. Conwell won’t be the highest upside bet on the board at that point, but he has a clear NBA role as a dangerous shooting threat on one end who should be able to quickly get up to speed on the defensive end.
Ryan Conwell’s basketball journey has taken him all over the map, and he is poised to join his fifth team in five seasons in the aftermath of the 2026 NBA Draft. Ultimately, the sell on Conwell is pretty simple: has jump shot, will travel. For teams looking for a rotation piece late in the second round who will fit in, do the dirty work defensively, and rain in shots from anywhere and in every way, they will be hard-pressed to find a better modern shooting threat than Ryan Conwell.