Ryan Kalkbrenner: Still Here for a Reason | The Prospect Overview
Creighton's Ryan Kalkbrenner isn't the new kid on the block. But he's a 2025 NBA Draft prospect for a reason. PLUS: Quick Hits across college basketball!
The draft world can be a cruel, fickle place. One day, they’re calling you a potential Top 5 pick. Then a few months down the road, they’re calling you an overrated prospect who artificially inflated your BPM during the non-conference portion of the schedule and saying you need to go back to school. But that’s how it works! We’re constantly acquiring new data points. Some players rise; others fall. It’s particularly volatile for underclassmen, as younger prospects are generally perceived as having higher upside. When a freshman gets hot, the world takes notice. But when one cools off, they become a trickier proposition.
Still, a different type of cruelty is set aside for the older prospects. They’re not the shiny new toys. They are known commodities who float around in the 21-45 range and start to receive a limited level of analysis. It makes sense—we’re familiar with them, and re-treading the same conversations over and over again can become tiresome. With that being said, I’ve always felt for the upperclassman returners in that range. They can’t do much to move the needle. Their best performances are met with a “that’s nice” and that’s about it. It’s harder for them to capture our imaginations.
But that doesn’t mean players in that range can’t become good NBA players. In fact, many are safe bets to hang around the league for some time. I feel like Ryan Kalkbrenner is the poster child for what I’m talking about. He’s a “dunks and blocks” big man, which is already an unsexy archetype. But then you factor in that we’re in year five of him being a really good, but not totally awe-inspiring player, and he enters that troublesome state of “old prospect purgatory.” These guys can draw the “oh, he’s still here?” reaction. But there’s usually a reason that they’re still here, and it’s because they are often more likely to produce positive outcomes than some of their more theoretical peers. Today, we’re going to give Kalkbrenner his due. We’ll dive into what he does well, where he could improve, and what it means for his NBA future.
Offense
It’s a cruel simplification. But a lot of times, when NBA teams go to the bench, they just want a big man who can do the dirty work. On offense, that generally means screening, moving the ball, and finishing efficiently. Ryan Kalkbrenner can do all of that exceptionally well.
Let’s start with the finishing, because it’s Kalkbrenner’s greatest offensive strength. He’s been one of the most efficient cleanup men in college basketball. He leads Division I by a wide margin with 86 dunks on the year. Kalkbrenner is an awesome roll man. He sets good screens to help his man get an advantage before charging toward the cup. Kalkbrenner gets up well for lobs. The real beautiful thing on these plays, though, is his coordination. He has excellent hands and impressive body control, enabling him to reel in passes even if they’re a bit off the mark before contorting and slamming the ball home. It gets even better. While Kalkbrenner is better at jamming the ball than anyone in college hoops, he’s got plenty of answers when he has to finish with touch. Kalkbrenner can convert with either hand around the basket. His length and finesse help him score even when he’s met with heaps of physicality inside. As a result, Kalkbrenner is an exceptionally dominant finisher. He’s making 75.1% of his halfcourt rim attempts, and he blows all of the “big men” play types on Synergy out of the water. He ranks in the 98th percentile in transition, the 90thpercentile on post-ups and cuts, the 86th percentile on putbacks, and the 83rd percentile as a pick and roll “roll man.” If there’s a way you can ask a traditional big man to score, you can bet your bottom dollar that Ryan Kalkbrenner is ready to do it.
Oftentimes, I think it’s important to zoom out. That’s not to say, “don’t overthink it” or, “avoid nuance at all costs.” But the primary offensive ask of most big men off the bench is to finish effectively around the basket. And the fact that Ryan Kalkbrenner has proven himself in that respect gives him a real level of value as a prospect. The question next offensive question becomes: “How can he provide additional value on top of that?” There are two primary things that come to mind.
The first is Kalkbrenner’s shooting. He’s started to let the occasional three-ball fly over the past two years. He’s gone a very respectable 33 for 99 from deep over that span. It’s not a shot that he loves to take, per se. A lot of his attempts come when being dared to launch, acting as a mechanism to keep defenses honest. And that makes sense—when you’re that good inside the arc, why launch triples? From a “winning basketball games” standpoint, I get it. But still, we’ve gotten glimpses into something of a translatable shot at the next level. He’s able to set his feet well off pick-and-pops, and occasionally, he’ll get the ball out without the classic “slow big man load up” mechanics often displayed by college centers who launch a three here and there. I’m not saying Kalkbrenner is going to turn into Brook Lopez, but the fact that he’s able to hit threes when given space gives him a path to add an extra layer of dimensionality to his game.
The other bigger swing area for Kalkbrenner, in my opinion, is his playmaking. His 10.3 AST% and 9.2 TOV% are good marks for a big man prospect. Still, given his age and experience, I do feel like I’m left wanting more in this respect. It’s a consistency thing. At his best, Kalkbrenner can execute the simple passes well. He’s able to punish doubles out of the post at times, he makes the occasional dazzling short-roll dime, and he has an admirable eye for open shooters. Other times, he’ll find himself completely overwhelmed by doubles, play too weak with the ball, or speed himself up and throw a questionable pass. If Kalkbrenner can add strength and play with poise more consistently, he could turn himself into a big man who both finishes plays and acts as an occasional playmaking hub.
Defense
Ryan Kalkbrenner does a phenomenal job of anchoring a defense in drop coverage. Per Synergy, Creighton ranks in the 96th percentile as a team in opponent field goal percentage at the rim, and Kalkbrenner is a big part of that. For starters, his length and positioning make him one heck of a deterrent. He’s always in the right spots, and his use of angles prevents offenses from getting much in the way of clean looks inside. When teams do opt to challenge Kalkbrenner inside, it usually doesn’t go well.
Kalkbrenner has a 7.7 BLK% on the year, which is a strong mark for a big man prospect. What makes Kalkbrenner a bit more unique, though, is that he tallies his blocks without fouling much at all. He averages only 2.2 fouls per 100 possessions! That’s a microscopic level of fouling. His technique is stellar. When Kalkbrenner high points a block, he goes up with exceptional verticality, like a volleyball player trying to avoid their forearm coming down across the top of the net. But on other blocks, it’s Kalkbrenner’s hand-eye coordination and hand speed that get results. He’s often cat quick getting to the ball and swatting it the second it leaves a player’s hand. That reaction time, paired with his length, helps him to generate rejections further away from the basket, too. He’s no stranger to blocking shots in the mid-range or beyond the arc. During the offensive section, I talked about how the primary ask of many NBA bigs is to finish inside. Well, on defense, the primary ask of many NBA bigs is to hold down the fort and protect the rim. Kalkbrenner does that well, too. This gives him a rock-solid floor argument.
Again, though, we turn to watch what Kalkbrenner can do to provide additional value on top of that. I think there’s probably some desire to add to his versatility as a ball screen defender. He can be a bit robotic and clunky in space at times. Additionally, his lack of strength can lead to bigs dislodging him or drivers successfully driving through his chest at the rim. It would be nice if he was more agile and stronger; there’s no doubt about it. Strength, in particular, is something he’ll need to work on. But there’s also low-hanging fruit in terms of his defensive rebounding.
To be fair, Kalkbrenner’s 18.6 DRB% is a career high. Still, it’s a poor mark overall for a big prospect, particularly one who doesn’t project to switch often. He doesn’t always find a body on the glass. Sometimes he does, but his lack of strength leads to him losing the positioning battle. And when he does secure position, sometimes he doesn’t actually go after the ball, keeping his hands down and allowing others to implement their will. There needs to be a greater level of effort, consistency, and attention to detail on this front.
Projection
Ryan Kalkbrenner is in a tricky predicament. It’s tough for older prospects to generate buzz. Still, looking at it from a glass half full standpoint, he’s also in an enviable spot. When NBA teams look for big men to fill out their rosters, they want guys who can do the simple things well. They want guys who can finish effectively and protect the rim. That’s Ryan Kalkbrenner. For that reason alone, he feels like an incredibly safe bet to be around the league for a long time. Given that, you can’t have him too low on a draft board. The question then turns to whether or not Kalkbrenner can be a legitimate difference maker. If he can display poise as a playmaker, continue to knock down the occasional three, and shore up his defensive rebounding, that outcome is very much on the table. I get it; Ryan Kalkbrenner isn’t the sexiest prospect on paper. But he’s productive in ways that matter. There’s a reason that he’s still here, and it’s because there’s a path for him to be a valuable contributor for years to come.
Quick Hits
-When making your draft boards, don’t forget about one of my favorite sleepers, Cedric Coward. The 6’6” senior has been out-of-sight, out-of-mind since suffering a season-ending injury. But the tools are all there. He’s evolved into a great three-point shooter (38.7% on 8.0 attempts per 100 possessions over the past two seasons). Coward is also a sharp connective passer (3.7 APG to 2.2 TOV prior to his injury) and a disruptive defender (career 1.9 STL%, 3.7 BLK%). His blend of physical tools and meaningful production for a wing are even more enticing when you factor in his late-blossoming trajectory. He was a D-3 player coming out of high school! I know he hasn’t been in front of a lot of eyes for some time, but don’t forget about him. If he goes in, he could be the steal of the draft.
-I’ve got to give credit where credit is due with Micah Peavy. The 6’7” Georgetown graduate had a fantastic start to the year. Still, given his poor shooting priors, I was tentative to buy in. But in conference play, he’s still hitting 38.8% of his threes on 3.7 attempts per game. His efficient 18.8 PPG production in conference play, largely without the help of Thomas Sorber, deserves more attention. The other wing stuff is there, too! He’s a smart passer (20.0 AST%) and a disruptive defender (3.9 STL%, 1.7 BLK%). I’m quickly shedding my skepticism and embracing a bullish approach regarding Peavy’s stock.
-How about the Milos Uzan bounce-back campaign?! The 6’4” junior was one of my favorite breakout candidates last year, but that didn’t materialize. Now, he’s found his footing at Houston. He’s still a fantastic playmaker who manipulates ball screens in ways few others can. He’s back to knocking down threes (42.0% on 7.1 per 100 possessions) this year, too. Best of all, he seems to have grown more comfortable at the basket. While I would still like to see him embrace contact and get to the line more often, Uzan has done a better job generating good rim angles for himself this season. His size and feel will always make him an appealing guard prospect, and I’m glad that he’s worked his way back into the spotlight.
-John Tonje is one of this year’s biggest “I don’t know what to make of this” prospects for me. The 6’5” redshirt graduate is posting 19.5 PPG on 48.0/38.9/91.3 splits. It feels like he gets whatever he wants as a scorer. He has deep range from three, a strong frame that he uses to get to the line, and the bounce to finish above the rim. He’s one of the best and most well-rounded scorers in the country. The rest of his game is shaky, though. He has a negative assist-to-turnover mark and paltry defensive stats. That’s made all the more complicated by his age. Tonje’s pre-draft process will be interesting. He could try to find his footing as a microwave scorer or potentially show that he can do more in other areas when tasked with a reduced offensive workload. It will be fun to watch play out.
-Virginia’s Isaac McKneeley balled out against Wake Forest this week, posting 27 points on 10-14 FG with five assists, three boards, and two steals. The 6’4” junior has always been shifty with the ball. His footwork and dribble combinations, paired with his deadly shot-making (42.4% from three on 7.5 attempts per game), make him a fantastic self-creator. He’s taken a big step as an all-around playmaker this year, though. His 3.0 APG to 1.4 TOV blows out his previous assist-to-turnover marks, and it’s evident on tape that he’s taken serious strides. His vision, ability to punish help quickly, and use of passing angles are all night and day from where they were a year ago. If McKneeley can take a step forward defensively next year, he could very well be in the 2026 NBA Draft mix.
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