Sacramento Kings 2024 NBA Draft Lottery Preview

The No Ceilings crew continues their preview series of all of the teams drafting in the lottery today with the Sacramento Kings.

Stephen: It’s awesome for me to be present at this time of year, Nick. Over the course of my time with the No Ceilings team, I have missed the actual NBA Draft for the past two seasons. While we have spent much of the past few months evaluating the talent in this class, we now have a new objective: Figuring out where they do based on the draft order.

We’re continuing our lotto series with the Sacramento Kings. As you know, Nick, the Kings went 46-36, missing the playoffs after a storybook year for them. It’s crazy to see how brutal the West can be, with Sacramento only losing two more games this season than they did the year prior. The good news is that they have a good deal of talent. All-NBA player Domantas Sabonis was still an offensive force. De’Aaron Fox led the team in scoring with 26.6 PPG on splits of 47/37/74. Malik Monk gave a lot of teams fits coming off the bench and placed second in the Sixth Man of the Year race. We saw continued development from players like Keegan Murray and Keon Ellis.

Now, the Kings have the luxury of adding a quality contributor in this year’s lottery. There are some storylines to follow coming into the offseason: Is Malik Monk signing elsewhere? Does Harrison Barnes get moved? Is Kevin Huerter potentially moved? All of these questions give the Kings a number of directions they could go, in terms of draft philosophy.

As the resident Sacramento Kings fan and expert, do you prefer they go for higher upside? Or do you think they could go the way of looking for a day one contributor?

Nick: Monte McNair has followed a pretty consistent pattern when it comes to draft picks—he’s shown a willingness to draft older players with more well-rounded skill sets over taking swings on potential. I would expect that pattern to continue this year, and I personally think it’s the right approach for the Kings. The Kings are on the cusp of being a playoff regular, and they have two stars already in Sabonis and Fox—they need day one contributors more than they need high-upside bets.

With that in mind, there are two glaring needs that I see for the Kings, and there are a few players who fit into one of the two categories. The first category is forwards with size and skill. Harrison Barnes declined precipitously last year, and while Keegan Murray took huge strides defensively last season, the Kings would probably be looking for more of a power forward type than a smaller wing player. The other niche that they need to fill is rim pressure. When Fox and Monk were not attacking the basket, the Kings really didn’t have anyone else who could reliably drive the ball from outside the arc all the way to the paint. Sabonis certainly creates opportunities for himself and others when he gets post position, but he isn’t really taking anyone to the basket off the bounce outside of the slowest centers in the league.

Given the talent at the top of this draft class, I think that the Kings will almost certainly be going for the veteran forward archetype. Tristan da Silva stands out to me as a likely candidate; the 6’8” Colorado forward is solid defensively, and his playmaking will fit in wonderfully with the motion offense for the Kings. He’s a great finisher around the basket and a threat in transition, and he’s also an elite shooter. He shot 39.5% from three-point range on 4.8 attempts per game last year, and shot 38.6% from deep over his college career; he also ranked in the 92nd percentile on jump shots last season, per Synergy.

I’ve been a big believer in DaRon Holmes II for a while now, and he would also make a ton of sense for the Kings. Holmes is a bit bigger at 6’10”, so he would be an ideal candidate if the Kings are looking for a bigger forward. He’s been the main man offensively for Dayton for a couple of years now, but he was one of the most effective complementary players in the country in his first season at Dayton. His prowess as a cutter and a roll man will be enhanced for the Kings. Holmes also added a huge piece to his game this past season by becoming an excellent standstill shooter, knocking down 38.6% of his triples on 2.5 attempts per game and ranking in the 92nd percentile as a spot-up shooter, per Synergy. There’s also an added benefit to taking Holmes in that he fills another niche for the Kings: a backup center who can run some of the same sets as Domantas Sabonis. Holmes isn’t quite the same level of passer as Sabonis (pretty much no big man is), but he can operate the dribble hand-off game that Sabonis runs at a decently high level when Domas sits—and certainly at a higher level than any other big man the Kings have had since Sabonis came to town.

The rim pressure guard archetype might be a bit more difficult to find at #13. If Rob Dillingham falls to the Kings, he would provide that kind of scoring punch and rim-attacking ability—especially if Malik Monk doesn’t re-sign with the Kings in the offseason. It doesn’t seem all that likely to me that Dillingham will still be available at #13, though, which makes me think that taking an older, more plug-and-play type of forward would be more likely.

If they were to split the difference between forward player and high upside, I think that Kyshawn George might be interesting as someone who could provide complementary shooting and playmaking now with the potential to grow into something more down the line. Tristan da Silva’s college teammate Cody Williams could also be a candidate if he falls to #13. Both of these guys would be trickier fits than the forwards I mentioned earlier, though; they would both essentially require Keegan Murray to be the power forward, and I’d worry about both of them defensively in a way that I wouldn’t worry about either da Silva or Holmes.

Alright, Stephen—I’ve thrown out a few names of players who I think might make sense for the Kings, but I’d love to hear your perspective. Do you think going for immediate contributors makes more sense, or should they swing for the high-upside types? Which players who I have or haven’t mentioned would you be considering if you were in Monte McNair’s shoes?

Stephen: The great thing is that I don’t feel like the Kings have to be locked in one way or the other. Great way to not answer the question, I know. What I mean to say is that Sacramento should go after the best player possible, whether that means that prospect is ready to go day one or if a little bit of tolerance and patience is the way to go. One example of the patience example: Keon Ellis. Sure, Keon was an upperclassman who appeared to be ready to go, but there was a runway of growth put forth for him to get better.

I do understand the TDS shout, as he is almost a sure thing to be a contributor right off the jump. Just add water. It makes sense. One consideration: How much room for growth is there? Sure, Tristan has a possibility of improving, but so did Quentin Grimes. There’s always going to be a spot for him in the league, but does he give the Kings something they don’t already have? Is he a catalyst for Sacramento to improve in the win column? I just think he gives the team something they already have, thus diluting his value there.

At the 13th pick, there are a few projected players that I think could give Sacramento something to improve now and over time. I actually do not mind DaRon Holmes II mocked to them, or drafting him that high. The ability to stretch the floor while providing some help side rim protection is a skill that the Kings are likely to covet immensely. He makes a ton of sense to me for them.

His season at USC was a major disappointment, but I am not going to lay the disastrous season the Trojans experienced all at the feet of Isaiah Collier. I believe that he can give the Kings a bit of a change of pace at the guard position—a little “fire and ice” with him and Fox. Collier had the talent coming into the year to be considered the top player in this class. He is a power athlete—not an omni-directional one—who can apply brute force on drives while having the tools to be a talented passer. Yes, I know about the 21.1% turnover percentage. A couple of things to think about with that number:

1. It’s not that high (113th in College Hoops)

2. He counters it with a 31.1 assist percentage (46th in College Hoops)

There is also the fact that USC was a total mess. Bronny James (ever heard of him?) missed a ton of time due to cardiac arrest. Kobe Johnson just had a bad season. He missed time due to injury and came back. There was just a lot of noise coming from their roster. Was that all on Collier? Goodness no. With Malik Monk potentially leaving, I like the idea of bringing in someone who can come off of the bench and give the team a different look while also having the potential to be the biggest steal in the draft.

Another prospect I have in their range that would be interesting is Jared McCain. He seems like more of a natural Malik Monk replacement. Jared shot over 41% from the college three-point line and just under 89% from the free-throw line. McCain’s ability to stroke the ball has garnered him a lot of fans, but he is also a tremendous rebounder. With the way Duke played last season, Jared was relegated to an over-simplified role as a floor spacer. There may be reason to be excited about him having some untapped potential as a lead playmaker as well. McCain has a low-ish assist percentage (10.7), but he did take great care of the ball. His strength and shooting give him some potential to make immediate contributions, while his potential playmaking could give him a path to improvement.

Nick: I’m really glad that you brought up McCain and Collier; I think both of them could be on the table for the Kings for different reasons. With McCain, the Kings would add an elite shooter who, as you mentioned, excelled in a smaller role but has the potential to expand beyond the player he was at Duke. I’m a bit concerned about the rim pressure element for him, but the shooting would certainly be a nice complementary element for the Kings to have. As a side note, it would also be fun to have McCain, a Sacramento native, suiting up for his hometown team.

Collier is interesting conceptually for entirely different reasons. He would be almost the opposite of the typical McNair pick as a one-year college player who had his struggles in that season, but he does offer quite a bit of upside. He also addresses the biggest area of need for a new Kings guard in that his greatest strength—his ability to attack the basket—is one of the biggest weak points for the Kings.

I do get your concern about da Silva’s ability to grow into a bigger role at the NBA level, but I would argue with the notion that he provides something that the Kings already have. Sure, there is some overlap between da Silva and Keegan Murray, but the Kings need more players of that switchable forward archetype than just Murray and Barnes. There might not be a superstar/All-Star degree of upside for da Silva, but the Kings already have two All-Star caliber players and Murray could potentially grow into being a third star. Even if da Silva has a lower ceiling, the Kings need guaranteed contributors, and da Silva is an excellent fit as a fifth starter—just as Keegan Murray was when they drafted him. For the Kings to solidify their playoff floor, they need a couple more floor-raising pieces, and da Silva is perfectly primed to be that guy.

With all that being said, I’m glad that you’re more on board with the notion of DaRon Holmes II to the Kings. He’s been getting some buzz recently in the Kings corners of the Internet too, and I couldn’t be happier about it. He might not be expected to go as high as da Silva, Dillingham, or McCain, but he might be a better fit for the Kings than any of them. Monte McNair has shown in the past that he will happily ignore consensus and go for the proven player who fits into the team’s roster every time, and Holmes could easily be that guy—especially if the Kings try to shop Kevin Huerter, Harrison Barnes, or Davion Mitchell for a pick later in the first round.

The Sacramento Kings are in a good position in this draft to add a player with the 13th pick who can bolster their rotation. Even with Malik Monk likely to depart in free agency and even with the decline of Harrison Barnes last season, the Kings still had one of the best starting lineups in the league last season and will return all of those players barring a trade. Inserting Keon Ellis into the starting lineup down the stretch worked wonders for the Kings defensively, and his emergence gives the Kings more flexibility when it comes to filling out their rotation.

Perhaps the Kings get lucky, and an unexpected top-tier player falls into their laps at #13—just as Tyrese Haliburton fell to them at #12 in Monte McNair’s first draft at the helm. Even if the Kings don’t have that kind of extraordinarily good fortune on draft night, though, there are quite a few players who will be on the board at #13 who could help the Kings return to the playoffs—especially given how close they were to earning a repeat playoff berth this past season.