Seth Lundy: Bet on the Growth

Seth Lundy really benefited from playing in the scrimmages at the Draft Combine. Tap in and see why Garbage Time Ghim thinks he can be a future contributor to a playoff team.

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Growth isn’t linear. Is growth linear? I don’t freaking know. 

Before I even get into the scout this week, I want to tip my hat to all the scouts and evaluators out there. The idea that we’re all trying to give our expert opinions on the futures of real human beings playing basketball at the highest level really is an insane exercise. Draft Twitter may not be the friendliest place, and we may disagree on most things, but I genuinely want to give my respect to all of us out there grinding and trying our best to offer the best possible evaluations. Draft Twitter, I hate and respect all of you. 

No more feelings; let’s talk about Seth Lundy. 

I wanted to start off my piece by highlighting how difficult evaluating can be, because a player like Seth Lundy can really challenge your foundations as an evaluator. Seth Lundy is not being marketed as a future All-Star; most don’t have him going in the first round, and some may not even see him as a draftable player. The thing that makes Lundy such an exciting player to me is the fact that he improved a ton in his final season and has a strong foundation of skills that I believe translate to the next level. Still, he also has some real physical limitations that make you wonder about how translatable his game may be. Before we cut things open and get into the details, let me slow down and introduce Lundy properly. 

Seth Lundy just finished his senior season for the Penn State Nittany Lions, and he’s starting to flash on radars because of his strong senior season and because of his play at the Draft Combine. Our very own Maxwell Baumbach wrote an incredible recap of the combine and highlighted a lot of the good things Lundy was able to flash in Chicago. Lundy finished the season with averages of 14.2 points and 6.3 rebounds on shooting splits of 45.0/40.0/80.7. The numbers alone are good, but if you look at his progress over the course of his four years in college, they’re even more beautiful.

Offense:

In his final season for the Nittany Lions, Lundy improved leaps and bounds from two-point range and continued to shoot it well from three and the charity stripe. If we just look at the numbers and the trajectory of the numbers, there’s a lot to like about him as a shooter. Playing next to fellow senior guard Jalen Pickett, Lundy was relied upon to do a wide range of things for the team on both ends. On offense, he was asked to space the floor and occasionally go and get buckets for himself. 

If you watch the compilation posted below, you’ll see that Lundy was a reliable floor-spacer and a guy that played exceptionally well next to a main guy like Jalen Pickett, who had much of the ball. This is important to note because when you’re looking for second-round gems, you’re hoping to find guys that can play with your best players and complement their games. Considering the role that Lundy played for Penn State this past season, you could see how his role could pretty easily transition to the next level. I think it’s really important for me to note that although I think his role will be similar to the one he played in college, I don’t think it’ll be exactly the same. My main reason for throwing that in is that I think most NBA teams will limit the amount of dribbling Lundy does, at least to start. 

Considering the level of play and his position as a complimentary player next to Pickett, there were moments when Lundy would take matters into his own hands and try to make something happen off the dribble. There weren’t a ton of opportunities for him to do this, but I have to mention it to help you better understand his outlook as a prospect and how he’s probably going to be viewed by NBA front offices. He’ll do very little of it in the NBA for a couple of reasons. 

First off, Lundy does not have the tightest handle. If you turn on the highlights, you may see some possessions where he went at guys in isolation, and, to be fair to him, he was able to make things happen sometimes. As he goes up in competition level, the need for a tight handle, burst/ athleticism, and flexibility will make things a lot more challenging for him. According to Synergy Sports, he was a 53.8% shooter in isolation situations, which grades out as excellent, but you have to do the eye test for this one. Also, he was only in 26 total plays deemed by Synergy as isolation plays, which is a tiny sample size. This may seem like I’m bashing the guy, but I’m trying to make the point that Lundy was asked to do a ton, and he never backed down from any challenge. Even though he lacks certain skills and abilities, he still gives everything he has on every play, and that is how you have to view him on both ends of the floor. 

If you watch Lundy handle the ball, he can be a little upright at times; he’s not very flexible, his handle is loose, and he can leave the ball vulnerable to defenders with quick hands. His jumper off the dribble also doesn’t look as balanced or clean, and he struggles to create separation for himself. When he gets the ball toward the cup, he does an excellent job of using his strength to fend off shot blockers and does a good enough job with his weak hand. Along with his shaky handle, Lundy is also not the strongest passer of the ball; over the course of his four-year career, he averaged more turnovers than assists. But once again, if his job is to space the floor and knock down open shots, these issues are not as glaring or important. As long as we talk about Lundy in the right role in the NBA, it’s hard to be too negative about his game. 

If we return to his shooting, it’s easy to see the intrigue. He was asked to shoot off a lot of handoffs, pin-downs, and hits to the corner. The shot diet was not very diverse, but that’s the perfect role for Lundy, considering the deficiencies in his game that we just went over. Although he measured in slightly shorter than I expected at the combine, he has a plus wingspan and a great, NBA-ready physique. I think he has pretty clean mechanics on his jumper, he can shoot it from really deep, and I like that he was able to shoot it off the move. Lundy took almost seven threes per game, and not all of his looks were super clean. He was able to hit a ton of them with a hand in his face, off balance, and from really deep at over 40% for the season. That’s good stuff! 

Defense: 

On defense, I think you have to consider what he was asked to do and what he’s going to be asked to do on the next level. Lundy was often forced to guard the best guy on opposing teams, and he did it happily. Lundy has a great wingspan for his size, boulder shoulders, and a great physique overall. Where he lacks is in his lower half. Lundy doesn’t have the quickest feet or the quickest hips. Lundy can really struggle at times to stay in front of quicker guards and wings, but the one thing he has going for him is a real competitive spirit. Lundy was consistently asked to guard against tough guards and wings and never backed down from a challenge.

Did he ace all his assignments? No, but what’s important is that he didn’t hide from them. On the next level, I think he’s gonna have to continue to work on his mobility to become a more versatile defender. As he is now, he’s going to have to guard twos and threes exclusively because he’s really going to struggle against most NBA point guards with speed. He also wasn’t a huge steals or blocks guy, but he could use his strength to make things difficult for his man. I also believe his screen navigation could use some work. If you watch the video I posted above of his defense, he got blown up pretty badly by screens at times. I’m not freaking out about it because I know he’s a high-effort player, but he does need to address it. 

To his credit, Lundy was a solid team defender who fought hard to be in the right spots. Considering his size, he was also a strong rebounder, and I think he’ll continue to battle on the boards in the NBA as well. Although I did spend a good amount of time highlighting his weaknesses on the defensive side of the ball, I do think his toughness and effort alone make him a pretty competent defender. He’s not excellent, but with work, I think he can become a solid defender one day. Ultimately, I think he’s good enough as a defender to put the 3-and-D label on him as a prospect. 

Outlook:

Now that we’re in the conference finals of the NBA finals, you start to see rotations tighten up and coaches going with the guys they really trust. When you watch a team like the Miami Heat or the Denver Nuggets, it’s clear who the coaches trust and are willing to go to war with. When I watch players like Bruce Brown, Gabe Vincent, Max Strus, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, I can’t help but think a guy like Seth Lundy could latch on to a contender and play a similar role to those guys. I think Lundy is really going to be able to continue his shooting. With some improvements to his lateral movement on defense, I think he can be a real contributor playing in a conference finals one day. You’re getting excellent value if you can grab a guy that can play 20-plus minutes for a conference finals team in the second round. 

My gut tells me he’s a playoff guy. He’s not a perfect prospect, but he’s a guy that you’ll feel good about putting next to a couple of stars. He’s going to do a ton of dirty work, he’s going to add toughness to your squad, and he’s the classic selfless team player. Coaches will love him because of his availability and willingness to defend and hit the boards.