Should You Be Worried? | Part One
Stephen looks at NBA past, present, and future to answer one question for fans of NBA teams: Should You Be Worried?
One of my favorite things to do during the draft cycle is to look backward. It’s fun to let the fan in me sort of take over, and guide my fingers across the keys in a way that isn’t as “buttoned up,” so to speak. The history of the draft can tell us a lot. The thing about draft history is that it plays a vital part in the growth and trajectory of NBA teams; their success is tied more to the management of draft picks than traditional NBA coverage gives credit for being the case.
What we will be doing today is looking at the “success rate” of how NBA organizations have drafted in the exact spots they will make their selections (trades pending) in the 2025 NBA Draft. For this exercise, we will go all the way back to the 1978 NBA Draft—commonly known as the Larry Bird draft. The sole reason for this is that the 1978 draft is thought of as the draft that saved the future of the NBA, as Bird was drafted then, with Magic Johnson being drafted the subsequent season. This draft laid the foundation of a pivotal rivalry that captivated the nation.
And, just because, okay?
The 2025 NBA Draft is oozing with talent at the top end, and there is plenty of depth to be excited about well outside the lottery. With that level of talent, that means the stakes are higher. Not every NBA front office has handled those stakes appropriately—which leads me to ask (and answer) the most important question a fan can be asked: Should you be worried?!? *dramatic music ensues*
Pick #1: Dallas Mavericks
Previous Picks at #1: Mark Aguirre (1981)
Take a look at the nicknames Mark Aguirre has on basketball-reference, and then answer the nervous question!
In all seriousness, it’s been a hot minute since the Dallas Mavericks have had the top selection in the NBA Draft. Obviously, multiple ownership groups and front office personnel have changed hands over this time. Aguirre is a fine player considering the history of the league; he’s a multiple-time (three-time) All-Star, and was on the tail-end of MVP ballots in the early-to-mid 80s. He did go on to win multiple NBA Championships, but they came after a trade to the Detroit Pistons in a move that involved Adrian Dantley and a first round draft pick.
Upon his discovery of the trade, Aguirre said in an interview: “I’m going to get out of here as soon as I can. I’m gone”.
Looking at the Dallas Mavericks holistically, you can really argue the answer to the nervous question on both sides. The history of this team, though, does suggest that the Mavericks likely will trade away—or not re-sign—the presumed pick, Cooper Flagg, at some point during his time in Dallas. Steve Nash, Kristaps Porzingis, Jalen Brunson, and Luka Doncic all joined the former top pick, Mark Aguirre, as players the team moved on from in one form or fashion.
The obvious hope is that Cooper joins the pinnacle of player loyalty, Dirk Nowitzki, as a player who retires after playing only for the Mavericks. The same could have been said for Luka—a player who was moved in a manner we don’t really need to recap. With the draft around a month away, Dallas fans will have to deal with many talk shows, YouTube channels, and podcasts asking the question: “Will Dallas trade the pick?” The Mavericks have publicly stated that they plan to take Flagg and dismissed the notion of moving the pick. There is still time between now and then, but we should (?) take the team at their word, unless otherwise stated.
SHOULD YOU BE WORRIED? Not until Cooper’s 2nd contract
Pick #2: San Antonio Spurs
Previous Picks at #2: None (Sorry)
It’s pretty crazy (but also not, at the same time) that the San Antonio Spurs haven’t had the second overall pick in the draft since 1978. Many are well aware of San Antonio’s track record drafting with the #1 pick in the draft. Their most recent #1 pick, Victor Wembanyama, is considered to be the ultimate player to build around in the NBA. This is due to his perfect intersection of both size and skill.
The Spurs have made some pretty fundamental changes to their coaching staff and front office personnel—most notably with coaching legend, Gregg Popovich, stepping away from coaching and into his new role as President of Basketball Operations. Mitch Johnson has stepped in to be the team’s new head coach.
The Spurs are assumed to continue to conduct business as normal and to make sound decisions in constructing a winning team. With the Spurs leaping up to get the #2 overall pick, many have began to speculate whether or not they might trade the pick for an established talent, such as Giannis Antetokounmpo or Devin Booker. It’s also been speculated whether or not they should draft the player who is the presumed #2 player in this draft, Dylan Harper.
Harper is thought of as the best offensive hub in this class, which brings up questions of “fit” with already established talent in players like De’Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle. Nothing from San Antonio has come out saying that they are shopping the pick—nor have they publicly stated they aren’t interested in any particular players, to include Dylan.
Baking this all into a cake, the Spurs have a history of drafting very well. Sure, they have been in positions to take some obviously great players, but they don’t miss when they are selecting this high. If there is a team that could work out a rotation consisting of Fox, Castle, and Harper, the smart money would lie with San Antonio.
SHOULD YOU BE WORRIED? No way
Pick #3: Philadelphia 76ers
Previous Picks at #3: Charles Smith (1988), Jerry Stackhouse (1995), Joel Embiid (2014), Jahlil Okafor (2015)
A lot of basketball fans were shocked to see how poorly this season went for the Philadelphia 76ers. Marred with injuries, the Sixers almost didn’t have a top pick in this draft, as Oklahoma City would have had their pick if it fell outside the Top 6. Luckily for Philly, the craziest Draft Lottery in recent history took place this year.
Charles Smith was drafted in 1988 by the Philadelphia 76ers, but was quickly traded for Hersey Hawkins—who was taken sixth in the same draft. Philly “won” the trade, as Hawkins was named to one All-Star team in his third season with the Sixers.
Taking Stackhouse third in the 1995 Draft was a smart play, as he went on to play 18 years in the NBA at a high level. Jerry won the Rookie of the Year award with the Sixers, but he was traded—along with Eric Montross—in his third season to the Detroit Pistons for Theo Ratliff, Aaron McKie, and a future first round pick. This was due to the pairing of Stackhouse and Allen Iverson not really working out under then-coach Larry Brown. Stackhouse would be named to multiple All-Star teams, and he would be considered one of the better bench players in NBA history.
“The Process” is up next! Joel Embiid was taken with the third pick in the 2014 NBA Draft, and he has become the pillar of the most recent renditions of the Sixers ever since. While multiple other top picks made by the team, Joel has been one of the top players in the entire league—even with the injuries he has suffered over his career. He now has one MVP to his name, along with five All-NBA teams and seven All-Star teams.
The season after Philadelphia drafted Joel Embiid, the Sixers drafted Jahlil Okafor—who was taken with the pick right before Kristaps Porzingis. Things didn’t work out with Jahlil despite him making the All-Rookie team, and he was shipped out during his third season with the team. It’s also worth noting that Philly originally had the third pick in the 2017 NBA Draft, but traded up for the #1 pick—where they drafted Markelle Fultz. Jayson Tatum was taken with the #3 pick by Boston, the team that traded down from the top pick.
It’s pretty interesting that only one of the four players Philadelphia has taken with the third overall pick has stayed longer than three seasons with the team. What’s more interesting is that this season could look a lot like the 1988 draft for Philly, where the pick was traded for another player. This time, there is a lot of speculation that the Sixers will be open to move this pick for an established star—like Kevin Durant or Lauri Markkanen.
Along with this speculation, there is a lot of uncertainty as to who Philadelphia would take with the pick. Ace Bailey has been considered a consensus Top 3 pick throughout most of the season, but some feel that V.J. Edgecombe or Kon Knueppel might fit a greater need on this team.
With so many possibilities on who this team could pick, or who they could trade for, on top of the recent luck this team has had drafting with the third pick, there will be some amount of anxiety coming from the City of Brotherly Love.
SHOULD YOU BE WORRIED? I’d say so
Pick #4: Charlotte Hornets
Previous Picks at #4: Cody Zeller (2013)
We could do the whole “There were no Charlotte Hornets in 2013” thing, but that wouldn’t be very fun to me. Yes, the team in Charlotte was known as the “Bobcats” at that time, but this is a part of their history. While Michael Jordan was a part of the decision-making with the team, he opted to select Cody Zeller coming out of Indiana. That draft is largely regarded as one of the weaker drafts in NBA history, with only three All-Stars coming from this group: Giannis Antetokounmpo (drafted 15th), Rudy Gobert (drafted 27th), and Victor Oladipo (drafted second). Zeller proved himself to be a long-time pro, but not the type of player teams are hoping for with such a high pick.
Drafting in Charlotte has long been spotty in the history of the team. They had one bite at the #1 pick, but that was back in 1991 when they drafted “Grandmama” Larry Johnson. Their history is riddled with picks like Adam Morrison, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Noah Vonleh, Frank Kaminsky, and James Bouknight all being selected in the lottery. The jury is still out on the Tidjane Salaun selection at pick number six from last season.
There have been some promising picks sprinkled in since 2020—namely LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller, and Mark Williams—but the team needs to take a step in the winning direction after their third straight losing season. This draft is believed to have three strong franchise players, which means Charlotte will really have to nail this pick. There are some players that might be in this range for them to select. Ideally, Ace Bailey would be available here, should the Sixers draft a player who “fits a need”. If Ace is gone, many believe that V.J. Edgecombe fits seamlessly next to LaMelo, and Edgecombe does a lot of culture-setting things on the court.
It’s a bummer the Hornets didn’t land somewhere in the Top 3, but there will be plenty of talent to help this team’s future.
SHOULD YOU BE WORRIED? Disappointed? Yes. Worried? I don’t think so.
Pick #5: Utah Jazz
Previous Picks at #5: Dante Exum (2014)
It’s actually pretty cool going back as far as 1978 for this exercise; you get to go back and think: “man, the Utah Jazz used to be so good for so long”. Their recent seasons have been a stark contrast to that past success. While the Jazz have had Top 5 picks during this period, the only #5 pick overall went to the Australian sensation Dante Exum. Some could argue that Exum played in the NBA a little ahead of his time. Listed at 6’5”, the original pitch behind a Dante Exum was that he would be a larger creator.
Things didn’t really work out that way for Exum. He was a largely inefficient player throughout his rookie season, playing over 22 MPG. A torn ACL in 2015 caused him to miss what would have been his second NBA season. Exum would play three more seasons with Utah and was then traded to Cleveland. After two seasons with the Cavs, Exum played two seasons of international hoops. Following that stint overseas, Dante returned to play with the Dallas Mavericks and came back as a knock-down shooter.
Regarding how the Jazz have drafted recently…it’s been a little underwhelming to be honest. They drafted Udoka Azubuike with the 27th pick in the 2020 NBA draft—which felt like a surprise even for a late first round pick. Taylor Hendricks hasn’t produced at a high level after going ninth in the 2023 NBA Draft (injuries have played a part in that). Keyonte George went 16th in that same draft, and has been okay but inefficient. Their last pick in that draft, Brice Sensabaugh, has been a good contributor. Cody Williams had one of the least productive rookie seasons in Utah last year. Isaiah Collier displayed some nice vision on this team, but plays in a crowded backcourt. Kyle Filipowski has shown significant promise, especially as an early second round pick.
Utah has shown that they aren’t afraid to take swings at the top of the draft. They also somehow marry that strategy with taking the players who have the most potential. Landing at the #5 pick in the draft was a disappointment, but there should still be plenty of talent, as well as some higher ceilings to choose from. This could include taking Tre Johnson if he is still available, or Ace Bailey if he is available, according to how his stock has trended over the past few weeks.
SHOULD YOU BE WORRIED? Nah, not yet.
Pick #6: Washington Wizards
Previous Picks at #6: Melvin Turpin (1984), Tom Gugliotta (1992), Calbert Cheaney (1993), Jan Vesely (2011)
The majority of these selections were made when Washington was known as the “Bullets” back in the day. It feels like the Wizards, a team that has not been synonymous with success, are normally in the back half of the East, but not really bad (or lucky) enough to land very high picks. Although they tied for the best odds to land the top pick in the 2025 NBA Draft Lottery, Washington joined Utah and Charlotte as the teams to fall outside the Top 3 in the Draft Lottery.
Melvin Turpin was selected by the Washington Bullets in the 1984 draft, but the Cleveland Cavaliers made a move to acquire the rookie big man from Kentucky. For Turpin, the Bullets got Cliff Robinson (no, not that Clifford Robinson who played for the Trail Blazers), and Tim McCormick—the 12th pick in the same draft. Turpin played three years for Cleveland, one year for Utah, found himself out of the NBA for a season, and then returned for one last NBA season—playing spot minutes for the Washington Bullets. Robinson had two productive seasons for Washington, while McCormick never played for the team. I guess you can say Washington handled that pick okay.
Tom Gugliotta played 13 years in the NBA, but he was moved during his third season with Washington. Gugliotta scored a fair bit for the team, but was ultimately traded to the Golden State Warriors for legendary forward Chris Webber. Webber would be named to his first All-Star team while playing for the Bullets, so you could say that the pick worked out, but Gugliotta was named to just one All-Star team with the Minnesota Timberwolves—his third team.
Calbert Cheaney played for Washington for six seasons—averaging double digits in scoring in all but one of those years. Cheaney played seven more seasons after that, playing for the Celtics, Nuggets, Jazz, and Warriors over the course of his career. It’s not necessarily a bad thing to draft a 13-year pro outside of the Top 5, but you would hope for a bit more than what Calbert produced for where he was taken.
The last name, Jan Vesely, was a real swing in the 2011 NBA Draft. Vesely was the first international prospect taken in that draft, and he was looked at as a high-upside player. Listed at 6’11” with some tremendous athleticism, Vesely and that project didn’t work out for Washington, as they traded him in a three-team move that resulted in them landing Andre Miller from Denver, and multiple second round picks.
Luckily, a lot has changed in Washington since 2011. With players like Alex Sarr, Bilal Coulibaly, Bub Carrington, Kyshawn George, and AJ Johnson as young, up-and-coming players, there should still be plenty of good players for them to add to their roster. Their recent picks have been very nice, while they have made some shrewd moves in the trade market.
Some names to keep an eye on at this part of the draft would be Carter Bryant, Derik Queen, Kon Knueppel, Cedric Coward, and Khaman Maluach. All fit the mold of high-IQ prospects, and most of these names have the sort of length and skill that Washington has targeted in recent drafts.
With the way Washington has been trending, fans should be excited to see who the next piece will be.
SHOULD YOU BE WORRIED? No way!
Pick #7: New Orleans Pelicans
Previous Picks at #7: None (Sorry)
Perhaps one of the more interesting sights during the NBA Lottery was Zion Williamson representing the New Orleans Pelicans. It’s not uncommon for players to represent their teams, but the Zion stories have fluctuated from “Yay! He’s playing” to “Oh no! He’s injured” to “Does Zion want to stay on this team? What could the Pelicans get for Zion?” Maybe this was a public showing of unity between the organization and the player.
Regardless, the Pelicans were unfortunate enough to be another team falling from where the odds ranked them to where they are actually picking. Despite falling from fourth in the standings to the seventh pick, New Orleans will be able to add some solid depth, potentially a starter.
The Pels have had a rocky draft history, but they did move away from David Griffin and brought in Joe Dumars and Troy Weaver. There is really no way of knowing which direction this group will go, but Troy Weaver was a part of the Pistons when they drafted Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey, and Ausar Thompson, as well as the addition of Jalen Duren. So, it’s safe to assume that the Pelicans will value athleticism.
Outside of Zion, Trey Murphy III, and Herb Jones, it doesn’t feel like anyone else on the roster is above drafting over, which puts players like Khaman Maluach, Jeremiah Fears, and Carter Bryant—among others—within the center of that Venn Diagram of athleticism and filling a need. There is reason to believe in how the Pelicans have drafted recently: Zion, Herb Jones, Dyson Daniels (hey, they identified the talent), and Yves Missi. They’ve also had some picks that haven’t worked out quite to plan: Kira Lewis and Jordan Hawkins.
SHOULD YOU BE WORRIED? Maybe just a little bit.
Pick #8: Brooklyn Nets
Previous Picks at #8: Calvin Natt (1979), Kerry Kittles (1996)
The Nets fell two spots from where their odds had them to where they will ultimately end up selecting with the eighth pick. The Nets will be in a position unique to just them within one of the better drafts we’ve seen in some time. They will have four first round picks in the 2025 NBA Draft and a blank canvas to paint with moving forward.
The history of drafting eighth overall has been relatively decent for the Nets franchise. In 1979, when they were still the New Jersey Nets, this team drafted Calvin Natt. Natt was a good player in the NBA for 11 years. Calvin had a knack for playing stellar defense, along with being a rugged rebounder and reliable scoring option. The problem for Brooklyn—then New Jersey—is that they traded him to the Portland Trail Blazers during his rookie season, so they didn’t have the best parts of his career. The trade to Portland was for Maurice Lucas, as well as two first round picks. Lucas was fine for the Nets, but he played under two seasons for the team—and would be an All-Star with Phoenix two years after he left New Jersey.
Kerry Kittles will be a nostalgia hit for many of you reading this. Kerry was drafted out of Villanova, and played for the Nets for eight seasons. Kittles was a solid two-guard for New Jersey, and he was a career 37.8% shooter from deep. Kittles was a starter for the team’s two runs to the NBA Finals in the 2001-2002 and 2002-2003 seasons. Following the 2003-2004 season, Kittles played for the Los Angeles Clippers, in what would be his last season in the NBA. He retired in 2005 after dealing with multiple knee injuries.
The Nets have shown a history of doing well at this particular part of the draft but seeing as how it’s been more than 28 years since they’ve had this pick, the better way to evaluate things is to look at their recent draft history. Their recent drafts have shown solid identification of talent with players like Jarrett Allen and Nickeil Alexander-Walker, but those players have gone on to have success elsewhere. Cameron Thomas has performed well for a player taken 27th overall, but there are many who question how he will contribute to winning. Noah Clowney fits the mold of a developmental big man, and he still has a ways to go to tap into his well of potential.
With the Nets having so many picks, they could use all of these picks, package them together to move up, or add proven talent or more picks by trading them away. The Nets have made recent changes to their front office that could result in a more stable core of decision-makers, as indicated in their new YouTube series: SCOUT. It’s largely believed that the Nets will look for a player who has a high ceiling and can also initiate the offense. Players like Egor Demin, Kasparas Jakucionis, and Jeremiah Fears would all fit that bill.
SHOULD YOU BE WORRIED? Get excited!
Pick #9: Toronto Raptors
Previous Picks at #9: Tracy McGrady (1997), DeMar DeRozan (2009), Jakob Poeltl (2016)
It’s pretty impressive the work Toronto has put in with the #9 overall pick in the NBA Draft. We get to start off by talking about one of the biggest “What Ifs” in NBA history, Tracy McGrady. “T-Mac” laid the foundation for so many modern players. Listed at 6’8”, McGrady could run an offense and was one of the most dynamic scorers in NBA history. The cousin of fellow ex-Raptor Vince Carter, McGrady played with the Raptors for three seasons. Following the completion of his third season with the team, T-Mac was traded to the Orlando Magic for a first round pick in the 2005 NBA Draft. McGrady went on his way to be selected to seven All-NBA and All-Star teams, and would be voted into the Basketball Hall of Fame in 2017.
Seriously, kids. Look him up.
DeMar DeRozan—largely considered to be one of the greatest Raptors of all time—also was taken by Toronto with the 9th pick in the 2009 NBA Draft. DeRozan spent nine of his 16 years in the NBA so far with the Raps, and was named to four All-Star Teams and two All-NBA teams with the team. His evolution of positional play has been one of the most interesting in recent history. Drafted to be Toronto’s two-guard, DeMar has grown to play the 3, and eventually the 4 when he played in San Antonio.
Another player who has spent time with both the Raptors and the Spurs, Jakob Poeltl, was taken with the #9 Pick in the 2016 NBA Draft. After just two seasons with the team, Poeltl was a key piece (along with DeMar DeRozan) in the trade that sent Kawhi Leonard to Toronto—a move that brought Toronto its lone NBA Championship in 2019. In 2023, the Raptors would make another trade with the Spurs to get Jakob back for Khem Birch, a first round pick, and two second round picks.
Considering how this draft could go, Toronto’s recent draft history is a bit checkered. Malachi Flynn and Christian Koloko are no longer on the team. Scottie Barnes has been put into position to be the franchise player, but a lack of spacing and consistent defense has put a strain on his leap to stardom. Gradey Dick has been a fine NBA player—and stepped into a starting role with the team this year. Ja’Kobe Walter had some moments as a rookie this season, but shot under 35% from deep in a role that is predicated on floor spacing.
It’s hard to bet against Masai Ujiri—who is routinely in the news for being a top candidate for other NBA teams as their potential new decision-maker—but the Raptors have a lot of money tied up in players that overlap in skillset and where they score on the court. Ujiri has ties to Khaman Maluach through the NBA’s “Giants of Africa” program. He would fill a need with the team, but other teams may also covet his potential and skill. Some of the lead guards in this draft bring in their own floor spacing concerns. Players like Cedric Coward and Carter Bryant could help this team in the immediate, but questions would come down the line concerning role and minutes availability.
SHOULD YOU BE WORRIED? I would say “Yes”
Pick #10: Houston Rockets
Previous Picks at #10: None (Sorry)
There is no long or short-term history of the Houston Rockets having the 10th Pick in the NBA draft since 1978. What’s interesting is that, when Houston has been near the 10th pick, they have routinely ended up trading that pick/player away. In 2012, the Rockets moved Jeremy Lamb at the 12th pick to the Oklahoma City Thunder in the trade that sent James Harden to Houston. In 2006, they moved what ended up being Rudy Gay at the #8 pick in the 2006 NBA Draft to the Memphis Grizzlies. Richard Jefferson was moved to the New Jersey Nets in the 2001 NBA Draft, and he was selected with the 13th overall pick by Houston.
What makes this historical throughline interesting is the number of trade rumors Houston has been in over the past couple of seasons. With the plethora of young players and picks Houston has—along with the lack of a go-to scorer—it’s been a popular thing to play “trade machine” with this team, for players like Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kevin Durant, and Devin Booker. The 10th overall pick in this deep class could be a carrot to dangle for a team that could be looking to reset their timeline.
Since 2021, the Rockets have done a decent job taking players in the Top 5. Jalen Green—who led the team in scoring this season—was drafted #2 overall in 2021. The next year, promising forward Jabari Smith Jr. was drafted with the third pick. One of the most dynamic young players in the entire NBA, Amen Thompson, was taken fourth in the 2023 NBA Draft. Reed Sheppard—who played sparingly on this deep team—was taken #3 overall in last year’s NBA Draft.
After making the Playoffs, it can feel like the Rockets are playing with house money here with the 10th pick, but history shows that teams that feel like they don’t need to hit their draft picks eventually fade out of basketball relevancy. The key things a prospect will need to bring to this team in order to see the floor are length, athleticism, and defense.
Some interesting names to look at here are Carter Bryant, Collin Murray-Boyles, Rasheer Fleming, Thomas Sorber, and Cedric Coward. The one time this team moved away from that draft profile was last year when they drafted Reed Sheppard. Though Sheppard did play well defensively at Kentucky, and did show good athleticism, he lacked the length and tools the majority of this roster possesses. Coloring outside of those lines could result in a squandered asset under coach Ime Udoka.
SHOULD YOU BE WORRIED? If trading pick: Probably not. If drafting: Also, probably not.
Pick #11: Portland Trail Blazers
Previous Picks at #11: Fat Lever (1982), Meyers Leonard (2012)
Fat Lever has one of the best names in NBA history. He would eventually be a two-time All-Star with the Denver Nuggets, showing the ability to move the ball and play lockdown defense. During his time in Portland, though, Fat played more of a supporting role while growing accustomed to the NBA. Lever was moved with Wayne Cooper, the aforementioned Calvin Natt, and a first round pick to Denver for talented scorer Kiki Vandeweghe. Kiki was coming off his second All-Star season with the Nuggets, and would have four consecutive seasons scoring over 20 PPG. The winner of this trade was obviously the Nuggets, who developed Lever into an All-Star, while Wayne Cooper played in Denver for five seasons as a reliable rotational player, and Calvin Natt would also be named to his lone All-Star team with the Nuggets.
Meyers Leonard is likely more known now for how he exited the league, as opposed to his time playing for the Portland Trail Blazers. Coming out of Illinois, Leonard was an athletic big who showed some promise as a floor-spacing five man. He played in Portland for seven years, playing a role for this team during several playoff runs—including a trip to the Western Conference Finals. Meyers went to Miami in a trade that sent him and Maurice Harkless to the Heat for Hassan Whiteside. After making antisemitic slurs on a livestream, Leonard spent some time away from the league and attempted a return with the Milwaukee Bucks in the 2022-2023 season. He played in just nine games and hasn’t played in the NBA since.
This edition of Portland’s front office has made some great decisions—both in trades, free agent signings, and in the draft. In 2022, Portland took the mysterious Shaedon Sharpe with the seventh pick in the 2022 NBA Draft, and they remain very high on his upside. The following season, Scoot Henderson fell to the team with the third pick. In last season’s draft, the Blazers took Donovan Clingan with the seventh pick. All three of these players have shown reasons for Trail Blazers fans to be excited for the future. Deni Avdija has also already outperformed his current contract, and he is considered one of the most underrated players in the league.
Portland will still have plenty of talented players available to them with the 11th pick. There doesn’t seem to be a specific need that needs to be filled, so the Blazers can go BPA (Best Player Available). Kasparas Jakucionis, Carter Bryant, Cedric Coward, Nique Clifford, Rasheer Fleming, Collin Murray-Boyles, Egor Demin, and Danny Wolf are among some reasonable options for the Blazers, and would be able to develop at a pace conducive for their success—as well as the team’s.
SHOULD YOU BE WORRIED? Nope.
Pick #12: Chicago Bulls
Previous Picks at #12: None (Sorry)
The kings of “Nah, we’re going to remain competitive,” the Chicago Bulls, have never had the 12th overall pick. This is a little hard to believe considering what this team’s reputation had been prior to Michael Jordan, and how middling they have felt over the past several seasons. This season, the team only had a 1.7% chance of landing the #1 pick in the 2025 NBA Draft—odds similar to what they have defied before.
In the 2008 NBA Draft Lottery, the team had a 1.8% chance (odds similar to this year’s 11th seed) to land the top pick. They ended up getting the #1 pick in that draft, which ended up becoming Derrick Rose. Tom Thibodeaux was the coach during the peak of Rose’s powers, prior to his suffering a career-altering ACL injury in the 2012 NBA Playoffs. This would also be the foundation of the reputation “Thibs” would establish as a coach who is going to ride his starters to whatever end.
The decision-makers for the Bulls have been in place few a few seasons now, and have an up-and-down draft history. Patrick Williams had one of the ultimate late rises in draft standings in recent draft history, as the forward was selected fourth overall in the 2020 NBA Draft. Two years later, another late riser in Dalen Terry was taken by the team with the 18th pick overall. Neither of those two has lived up to the hype that amassed in their draft years. In last year’s draft, the Bulls had a player—Matas Buzelis—seemingly fall into their laps. Buzelis showed a lot of promise during his rookie season, and he made the NBA All-Rookie Second team.
If you’re looking for what type of player Chicago seems to value in the draft, it’s clear that they are looking for length and players on the younger side, but shooting hasn’t been a required skill set based on their recent selections. One position the Bulls could look to upgrade is their center rotation. This could result in Khaman Maluach (if he falls compared to consensus) being a possible selection, or a player that could realistically be available, Thomas Sorber. Regardless, the Bulls will continue to try to gather and maintain talent to remain competitive in an Eastern Conference that is losing top-end talent, it seems.
SHOULD YOU BE WORRIED? Probably
Pick #13: Atlanta Hawks
Previous Picks at #13: None (Sorry)
Just one NBA Draft Lottery removed from a sizeable leap compared to their odds in landing the #1 pick, the Atlanta Hawks weren’t able to conjure up the same magic this season. Slated to pick 13th in the 2025 NBA Draft, Atlanta has not picked in this spot before. What makes this projection a little more difficult to predict is that the Hawks have made some significant front office decisions. Landry Fields was dismissed from his role as General Manager in April, and the team also parted ways with Grant Liffmann—who was the Vice President of Pro Personnel. Onie Saleh was promoted to take over the General Manager, while there has a ton of speculation as to who else the Hawks could bring in to help right the ship—from Austin Brown (Trae Young’s agent), to Bob Meyers, to Masai Ujiri.
Needless to say, there are several directions Atlanta could go toward the back end of the lottery. There are some murmurings about Trae’s long-term future with the team, as there has been for the past few seasons. Clint Capela has already been replaced as the starting big man, but his role has continued to dwindle. Dyson Daniels was acquired in the trade with New Orleans in a move that helped stabilize their starting five to some degree. Zaccharie Risacher—the #1 pick in the 2024 NBA Draft—had a solid season, and he gave some validation to Atlanta selecting him over some other prospects. Jalen Johnson is one of the more promising young players in the NBA, but he has been hampered by injury.
With players good enough to hold starting positions but not producing the desired success makes the thought process of drafting for “BPA”, or need, a little more difficult. Also, playing the “draft Trae Young’s replacement” game sounds…okay, but how practical would that move actually be? Without any significant reporting, it just feels like dream/wish casting.
Another big man, like Thomas Sorber or Danny Wolf, could be in play here. This would help shore up their rotation behind (or, potentially, ahead of Okongwu). If the team wants to add more depth behind Jalen Johnson in case of injury, someone out of the Rasheer Fleming, Collin-Murray Boyles, and Asa Newell—who played for Georgia this year—group could all be in play. Kasparas Jakucionis and/or Egor Demin could be available if you wanted to have an “Aaron Rodgers/Brett Favre” situation on your hands. With Atlanta’s spotty draft history and the lack of knowledge on what their decision-makers value in a player or on their roster, this is a hard team to feel super optimistic about at this point in the draft.
SHOULD YOU BE WORRIED? Yeah…
Pick #14: San Antonio Spurs
Previous Picks at #14: Alfredrick Hughes (1985)
To wrap up Part One of the “Should You Be Worried?” mini-series, we end with the team that has the #2 overall pick in this draft, the San Antonio Spurs. They have only been in position to draft a player with the last pick of the lottery once, when they took a player with one of the shortest runs in professional basketball, Alfredrick Hughes. Coming out of Loyola Chicago, the Spurs took Hughes in the 1985 NBA Draft; he would play one season with the team. Alfredrick played under 13 MPG, and scored 5.2 PPG with splits of 41/18/58. His performance is considered among the all-time misses in the history of the league, as he did not play for another season at all. It’s hard to come across other careers that have ended in one season without another team giving that player another shot. This predated the San Antonio front office that we’ve all come to know and, at least, respect.
As we touched on earlier, the Spurs could do many things this year with their lottery picks. Whether they use one or both picks to bring in an established player, or if they want to build around a core of Wemby, Castle, or Fox, it feels like they will be an improved team next year, no matter what. Having two tries in the lottery within a deep class is enough to be excited about, especially when there will inevitably be a player that slides further than predicted.
If the Spurs land the player that many expect in Dylan Harper with the second pick, the Spurs could opt to go for ultimate upside here with names like Noa Essengue, Ben Saraf, Noah Penda, Nolan Traore, Asa Newell, or Hansen Yang. Let us not also forget the ties that exist between Maxime Raynaud and Victor Wembanyama.
SHOULD YOU BE WORRIED? No chance
***Tune in for Part Two very soon!***
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