Should You Be Worried? PT. 1 | 2026 NBA Draft
Stephen Gillaspie examines the organizations, timelines, and developmental ecosystems surrounding the 2026 NBA Draft class.
One of my favorite things to do during the draft cycle is look backward. It’s fun to let the fan in me take over a little bit—to guide my fingers across the keyboard in a way that isn’t always as “buttoned up,” so to speak. Draft history tells us a lot about organizations, how they view team building, and the kinds of bets they’re willing to make when the pressure is highest.
Because make no mistake: the draft shapes the direction of the NBA far more than traditional coverage often gives it credit for.
What we’ll be doing today is looking at the “success rate” of NBA organizations drafting at the exact spots they are currently slated to pick (trades pending) in the 2026 NBA Draft. For this exercise, we’ll once again go all the way back to the 1978 NBA Draft—commonly known as the Larry Bird draft.
Partially because the 1978 Draft helped lay the foundation for one of the most important eras in league history. Larry Bird in 1978. Magic Johnson in 1979. A rivalry that changed the trajectory of the NBA and helped elevate the league into something nationally captivating.
And partially because… well, I think it’s fun.
The 2026 NBA Draft class is fascinating because of how differently organizations may approach it. There’s star power at the top, legitimate depth throughout the first round, and an oversaturation of guards that will force front offices to separate preference from projection. Some teams will prioritize upside swings. Others may lean toward proven production and roster fit. Developmental timelines, organizational patience, and roster infrastructure all matter here.
Not every franchise handles those variables equally well.
Which leads us to the most important question a fan can ask this time of year:
SHOULD YOU BE WORRIED?!?!? [cue dramatic music]
Pick #1: Washington Wizards
Previous Picks at #1: Kwame Brown (2001), John Wall (2010)
Since the Larry Bird Era, the Wizards have only picked first overall twice. The outcomes could not have gone much differently.
The first came in 2001, when Washington selected high school big man Kwame Brown directly out of Brunswick, Georgia. At the time, the selection was historic. Brown became the first high school player ever selected first overall in NBA Draft history.
Things did not go according to plan.
Brown struggled early, never fully meeting the expectations attached to being the top pick. While he ultimately carved out a lengthy NBA career, Kwame is still widely regarded as one of the biggest misses in league history, given his draft position.
Nine years later, Washington found itself atop the draft again.
This time, the Wizards selected John Wall out of Kentucky—and unlike Brown, Wall immediately validated the selection. One of the quickest and most electric athletes the NBA has seen, Wall rapidly developed into an All-Star and All-NBA guard before injuries ultimately derailed what looked like a Hall of Fame trajectory.
That’s the thing about drafting this high: the stakes are enormous, but so is the volatility.
Still, the current Wizards regime feels significantly more coherent than the one that selected Brown over two decades ago.
Since taking over as General Manager, Will Dawkins has consistently prioritized size, length, athleticism, and developmental upside. Alex Sarr, Bilal Coulibaly, Kyshawn George, and Will Riley all fit within a broader organizational vision centered around versatility and long-term scalability.
That makes AJ Dybantsa an almost comically clean fit.
There is a strong belief around the basketball world that Dybantsa will ultimately become the top pick in this class. His blend of physical tools, scoring upside, and positional versatility aligns directly with the type of player Washington has repeatedly targeted throughout this rebuild.
Given the direction of the organization and the archetype potentially available at the top, it’s difficult to feel pessimistic about Washington holding the #1 pick this time around.
SHOULD YOU BE WORRIED?: No Way!
Pick #2: Utah Jazz
Previous Picks at #2: Darrell Griffith (1980)
It shouldn’t come as much of a surprise that Utah hasn’t spent much time drafting second overall, considering how successful the franchise has historically been.
The only previous player the Jazz selected at #2 during the Larry Bird Era was Louisville guard Darrell Griffith in 1980.
Nicknamed “Dr. Dunkenstein,” Griffith immediately rewarded Utah’s investment by winning Rookie of the Year and quickly becoming one of the more explosive guards in basketball. Unfortunately, injuries eventually altered the trajectory of what looked like a star-level career.
That serves as another reminder that even successful selections can become fragile quickly.
Still, Utah has every reason to feel optimistic about holding the second pick in a class many believe is especially strong at the top.
There are obvious organizational connections to AJ Dybantsa, given his ties to Utah Prep and BYU. But even if the Jazz miss out on Dybantsa, they would still be positioned to land another franchise-level talent.
Darryn Peterson has consistently proven himself against elite competition and would immediately give Utah a high-level offensive centerpiece. Cameron Boozer also has organizational ties through his father, Carlos Boozer, who currently works with the franchise.
More importantly, Utah feels structurally prepared for a top-tier prospect.
Danny Ainge and the Jazz front office have accumulated draft capital, embraced developmental reps, and quietly assembled an intriguing young core despite the losses piling up recently.
Whether it’s Dybantsa, Peterson, Boozer, or another elite talent, Utah appears equipped to support a franchise cornerstone long term.
SHOULD YOU BE WORRIED?: Most Likely No.
Pick #3: Memphis Grizzlies
Previous Picks at #3: Shareef Abdur-Rahim (1996)
Not long ago, Memphis looked positioned to become what Oklahoma City, Minnesota, and San Antonio are now: a young contender with staying power.
Instead, injuries, suspensions, roster instability, and organizational changes dramatically altered the franchise’s trajectory. Following multiple unfavorable headlines surrounding Ja Morant and the eventual trade sending Jaren Jackson Jr. to Utah, Memphis suddenly finds itself entering another pivotal era.
Now the Grizzlies hold the #3 pick in what many believe could become one of the strongest draft classes in recent memory.
The only other time Memphis selected third overall during the Larry Bird Era came in the loaded 1996 NBA Draft, when the then-Vancouver Grizzlies selected Shareef Abdur-Rahim.
To Shareef’s credit, he was productive almost immediately. He averaged nearly 21 points per game across five seasons with Vancouver and became one of the better young forwards in basketball.
Still, it’s impossible not to look back at that draft and wonder what could have happened had Vancouver selected one of the eventual Hall of Famers still available behind him.
Hindsight is 20/20.
Memphis now faces another fascinating inflection point.
It would be shocking if AJ Dybantsa fell this far, but there is at least a plausible pathway where Darryn Peterson remains available—which would create an especially interesting conversation if Memphis eventually pivots toward a future beyond Morant.
More realistically, consensus currently points toward players like Cameron Boozer or Caleb Wilson in this range. Both fit the archetypes Memphis has consistently valued. Boozer brings offensive feel, rebounding, and spacing. Wilson fits the athletic, long, defensively versatile mold the Grizzlies have gravitated toward throughout this era.
More importantly, Memphis has largely earned the benefit of the doubt.
Even outside the lottery, the Grizzlies have consistently identified impactful talent and developed players into meaningful contributors.
With the level of talent available near the top of this class, there’s little reason to doubt Memphis landing a high-level player here.
SHOULD YOU BE WORRIED?: Nope
Pick #4: Chicago Bulls
Previous Picks at #4: Kelvin Ransey (1980), Marcus Fizer (2000), Eddy Curry (2001), Patrick Williams (2020)
This might be the first section in today’s piece that could have Bulls fans clutching their hearts a little bit.
Chicago has drafted fourth overall four separate times during the Larry Bird Era.
Things…have not exactly gone according to plan.
The Bulls selected Kelvin Ransey in 1980 before immediately trading him for Ronnie Lester and a future first-round pick. Twenty years later, Chicago drafted Marcus Fizer, whose promising scoring profile never fully translated before injuries altered his trajectory.
Then came Eddy Curry.
Curry represented the classic upside swing: elite size, enormous physical tools, and theoretical star potential. The problem was that the polish, conditioning, and consistency never fully materialized.
Nearly two decades later, Chicago once again drafted fourth overall and selected Patrick Williams—another tools-heavy projection bet whose development never quite matched the optimism attached to his draft stock.
That’s the important throughline here.
Historically, many of Chicago’s misses at #4 came from projecting what a player could become instead of simply taking the best overall talent available.
This time around, the Bulls may benefit from elite talent naturally falling into their lap.
Depending on how the board breaks, Chicago could realistically find itself choosing between Caleb Wilson, Cameron Boozer, or potentially even Darryn Peterson, depending on how teams handle medicals and fit conversations.
More importantly, there is new leadership shaping the direction of this roster.
With Bryson Graham helping guide basketball operations under a philosophy centered around Size, Length, Athleticism, and Physicality (S.L.A.P.), several of the top prospects in this class naturally align with the traits Chicago now appears to prioritize organizationally.
In other words, the low-hanging fruit may actually be the correct answer this time.
SHOULD YOU BE WORRIED?: Maybe Just a Little…
Pick #5: Los Angeles Clippers
Previous Picks at #5: (None)
The Clippers are one of two teams in this lottery selecting in a slot they have never previously drafted from during the Larry Bird Era.
That makes this one of the more fascinating teams in the entire draft.
On one hand, Los Angeles hasn’t exactly inspired confidence with several of its recent draft selections. Kobe Brown, Jerome Robinson, Brice Johnson, and CJ Wilcox have all struggled to generate meaningful long-term impact.
And while the Clippers technically landed Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on draft night years ago, they also deserve criticism for viewing him as movable in the first place.
To be fair, though, many of those misses came while selecting much later in the first round.
Historically, when the Clippers have drafted near the top, they’ve landed players like Blake Griffin, Eric Gordon, and Shaun Livingston.
The bigger question here isn’t history—it’s direction.
Assuming the consensus top tier of AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson, Cameron Boozer, and Caleb Wilson are all off the board, the draft becomes significantly more complicated.
Most evaluators currently view the next tier as heavily guard-dominated.
That raises fascinating questions, given that the Clippers recently acquired Darius Garland in a deal involving James Harden.
Does Garland remove someone like Darius Acuff Jr. from consideration? Or does his presence actually give the Clippers flexibility to pair him with another creator like Keaton Wagler or Mikel Brown Jr.?
There’s also the possibility that Los Angeles becomes one of the more active trade-down teams in the lottery if they believe the value flattens in this range.
That’s what makes this pick so intriguing.
This isn’t just about talent evaluation. It’s about organizational identity.
SHOULD YOU BE WORRIED?: Yes; A Lot of Curious Outcomes Here
Pick #6: Brooklyn Nets
Previous Picks at #6: Mike O’Koren (1980)
The only previous time the Nets selected sixth overall during the Larry Bird Era came in 1980, when the then-New Jersey Nets drafted North Carolina forward Mike O’Koren.
O’Koren immediately became a productive player and even received Rookie of the Year votes, but he never fully developed into a franchise cornerstone.
Honestly, that’s probably less important than Brooklyn’s recent drafting trends anyway.
That’s where things become concerning.
Even looking back at last year’s draft, there are already reasons to question several of Brooklyn’s decisions. Egor Demin was selected ahead of players like Collin Murray-Boyles, while Brooklyn also passed on several intriguing prospects later in the first round.
More importantly, the Nets still feel like an organization searching for offensive direction.
Brooklyn is not currently in a position to pass on elite talent simply because it already has multiple ball-dominant players. This roster still lacks a true offensive engine capable of organizing the floor and consistently elevating the players around him.
That makes this one of the more fascinating landing spots for the glut of guards projected in this range.
Darius Acuff Jr., Mikel Brown Jr., Keaton Wagler, and Kingston Flemings could all realistically enter the conversation here.
The issue?
Every one of those guards comes with real questions attached.
Acuff struggled defensively. Brown dealt with a back injury and inconsistent shooting stretches. Wagler still needs physical development. Flemings has real projection questions surrounding both his length and shooting translation.
That’s what makes Brooklyn such a dangerous landing spot.
Whichever guard they select will almost immediately inherit enormous developmental responsibility. If another guard drafted into a cleaner ecosystem develops more quickly, the criticism will arrive fast.
And unlike some organizations picking in this range, Brooklyn hasn’t consistently earned the benefit of the doubt recently.
This could very easily become another situation where the Nets are criticized for selecting the “wrong guy.”
SHOULD YOU BE WORRIED?: Unfortunately, yes.
Pick #7: Sacramento Kings
Previous Picks at #7: Steve Johnson (1981), Lionel Simmons (1990), Walt Williams (1992), Bobby Hurley (1993), Jason Williams (1998), Bismack Biyombo (2011), Ben McLemore (2013)
The Kings are veterans when it comes to drafting seventh overall. Sacramento has selected at this spot seven different times during the Larry Bird Era, which honestly feels fitting for one of the more chaotic organizations in modern NBA history.
Some of those picks worked out fairly well.
Steve Johnson immediately became a productive big man. Lionel Simmons looked like a foundational piece before injuries derailed his career. Jason Williams became one of the most beloved and stylistically influential guards of his generation.
Others became cautionary tales.
Bobby Hurley was selected ahead of players like Sam Cassell and Allan Houston. Ben McLemore never developed beyond being a rotational wing despite enormous expectations. Sacramento also famously pivoted from Bismack Biyombo into Jimmer Fredette—a bet on star aesthetics and offensive excitement that never fully translated.
That’s the important throughline.
The Kings have historically been an organization willing to talk themselves into upside, flash, fit, or “the next version” of something, rather than simply stabilizing around the best long-term talent available.
Which brings us to 2026.
Sacramento desperately needs another foundational piece capable of carrying the franchise into its next era. With heavy reliance on aging veterans like DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine, and Russell Westbrook, the Kings once again find themselves searching for offensive direction.
Conveniently—or inconveniently—they’re drafting directly in the middle of a guard-heavy tier.
Darius Acuff Jr., Mikel Brown Jr., and Keaton Wagler could all realistically enter the conversation here.
The problem is that Sacramento may not control which one reaches them.
The Clippers and Nets both pick ahead of the Kings, and both organizations have legitimate reasons to prioritize developing their own lead guards.
That’s where things become dangerous.
Could Sacramento stay patient and simply take the best remaining talent? Or could the Kings once again convince themselves they’ve identified “their guy” regardless of broader league consensus?
Maybe that means betting on the upside of Nate Ament. Maybe it means pivoting toward a big like Aday Mara.
History suggests every possibility is on the table with this franchise.
The Kings are close enough to relevance. This pick matters significantly, but the organization is unstable enough that it’s difficult to feel entirely confident in whichever direction they choose.
SHOULD YOU BE WORRIED?: Do Kings Fans Know Any Other Way?
Pick #8: Atlanta Hawks
Previous Picks at #8: Jaxson Hayes (2019)
The Atlanta Hawks did not quite jump into the very top tier of the 2026 NBA Draft, but this is still a meaningful spot for a franchise entering a new phase.
The only previous time Atlanta selected eighth overall during the Larry Bird Era came in 2019, when they drafted Jaxson Hayes out of Texas.
Well…technically.
Hayes never actually played for the Hawks, as Atlanta immediately moved him in the deal that ultimately brought De’Andre Hunter to the franchise.
For a while, that looked like a solid piece of business.
Hunter became a productive two-way wing for Atlanta and played a meaningful role on the Hawks team that reached the Eastern Conference Finals. Still, injuries and inconsistency prevented him from fully ascending into the sort of long-term cornerstone many hoped he could become, and Atlanta eventually moved him during the 2024-2025 season.
That brings us to today.
The Hawks are entering one of the more fascinating transitional periods in the league. After trading presumed franchise centerpiece Trae Young, Atlanta still managed to remain competitive behind the emergence of Jalen Johnson, who increasingly looks capable of becoming the organizational focal point moving forward.
That shift matters when evaluating this draft slot.
There’s certainly a pathway where Atlanta targets another guard, especially considering the age timeline of CJ McCollum and the overall guard-heavy nature of this class. But the Hawks also have very obvious frontcourt needs.
More specifically: size, rebounding, and interior presence.
Onyeka Okongwu has made real strides offensively, particularly as a shooter, but Atlanta still lacks consistent rim protection and high-end defensive rebounding from the center position.
That’s what makes Aday Mara such an interesting fit here.
Mara would immediately give Atlanta more size and interior deterrence, while also bringing some of the passing and offensive feel that could pair beautifully alongside Johnson in the frontcourt. From a pure talent perspective, that pairing could become one of the more intriguing young frontcourts in basketball.
The hesitation comes from Atlanta’s recent drafting track record.
Zaccharie Risacher has not yet separated himself within his draft class the way many hoped. AJ Griffin has effectively disappeared from the NBA landscape, and Kobe Bufkin never fully established himself with the Hawks before being moved.
Now, Atlanta enters this draft under General Manager Onsi Saleh. While Saleh was not the lead decision-maker behind several of those previous selections, he was still part of the organization during those processes.
Time will tell whether Atlanta has truly evolved philosophically—or whether some of the same drafting habits remain underneath the surface.
SHOULD YOU BE WORRIED?: Maybe a Little
Pick #9: Dallas Mavericks
Previous Picks at #9: Rolando Blackmon (1981), Samaki Walker (1996), Dennis Smith Jr. (2017)
It’s pretty interesting how often the Dallas Mavericks have landed at ninth overall, considering the franchise itself was established in 1980—right at the beginning of the Larry Bird Era.
The very first time Dallas drafted at this spot, they absolutely nailed it.
In 1981, the Mavericks selected Rolando Blackman out of Kansas State. Blackman spent a decade with the franchise, earned four All-Star appearances, and became one of the foundational players of early Mavericks basketball.
Fifteen years later, Dallas found itself back at #9 in the loaded 1996 NBA Draft.
This time, the Mavericks selected Samaki Walker out of Louisville. Walker ultimately carved out a lengthy NBA career and even won a championship with the Lakers, but he never developed into anything more than a rotational big man during his three seasons in Dallas.
Then came 2017.
Looking to find a young building block near the end of the Dirk Nowitzki era, Dallas drafted Dennis Smith Jr. out of NC State. Smith flashed athleticism and scoring upside early, but inconsistency and inefficiency ultimately led Dallas to move off him quickly in the deal that brought Kristaps Porziņģis to the Mavericks.
Dallas enters 2026 in a dramatically different position than it was in any of those previous eras.
Quite frankly, Cooper Flagg has almost made the Luka Dončić trade feel like distant history already. The organization now looks entirely different under Masai Ujiri and Mike Schmitz, while Jason Kidd is no longer on the sidelines.
The Mavericks suddenly feel reset. That’s what makes this pick so fascinating.
Dallas doesn’t necessarily need a franchise savior here. They need connective talent around Flagg and Kyrie Irving.
There are obvious needs on this roster. Perimeter defense. Secondary creation. Frontcourt availability. Long-term planning beyond Kyrie.
That opens the door to several different directions.
Brayden Burries would make a ton of sense as an athletic scoring guard capable of defending on the perimeter and easing some offensive pressure. Guards like Kingston Flemings or Labaron Philon could give Dallas a long-term heir apparent behind Kyrie.
Then there’s the bigger swing options.
Yaxel Lendeborg may be older than several prospects in this range, but his all-around game and positional versatility could make him an incredibly clean fit next to Flagg. Nate Ament also feels impossible to rule out, considering Dallas now has one of the more projection-friendly front offices in basketball.
More importantly, this organization finally feels aligned again.
Pairing Masai Ujiri with one of the league’s best evaluators in Mike Schmitz could be exactly what Dallas needed entering this next era.
That alone makes it easier to trust whichever direction they choose here.
SHOULD YOU BE WORRIED?: Think Like a Winner!
Pick #10: Milwaukee Bucks
Previous Picks at #10: Danny Fortson (1997), Brandon Jennings (2009), Jimmer Fredette (2011), Thon Maker (2016)
The Bucks land in one of the more pivotal spots of the 2026 NBA Draft with the tenth overall pick. Fortunately for Milwaukee, this isn’t unfamiliar territory. Unfortunately, their history here is a little all over the place.
The first time Milwaukee selected tenth overall came in 1997, when they drafted Cincinnati big man Danny Fortson. Fortson never actually suited up for the Bucks, though, as he was immediately moved in a trade that brought veteran center Ervin Johnson to Milwaukee. Johnson ultimately became a useful rotational big for several playoff Bucks teams, but the selection mostly serves as an early example of Milwaukee prioritizing immediate roster construction over long-term upside.
Twelve years later, the Bucks drafted Brandon Jennings after his unconventional pre-draft route through Italy rather than college basketball. Jennings immediately brought scoring pop and offensive flair to Milwaukee, even if the efficiency never fully matched the volume. More importantly, the Bucks eventually flipped Jennings in a sign-and-trade that netted them Khris Middleton—a move that helped shape the eventual championship core around Giannis Antetokounmpo. Ironically, one of Milwaukee’s better outcomes at this slot came less from the actual player drafted and more from the organizational pivot afterward.
Two years later came the Jimmer Fredette selection—or, more accurately, the Jimmer transaction carousel. As discussed earlier in Sacramento’s section, Fredette quickly became part of a multi-team sequence involving Tobias Harris, Shaun Livingston, JJ Redick, Beno Udrih, and several other moving parts. Essentially, the selection became less about Jimmer himself and more about Milwaukee continuously reshaping the roster around the margins.
Then came Thon Maker in 2016. Fresh off the early success of Giannis, Milwaukee once again swung on a long-term developmental frontcourt project with enormous physical tools and theoretical upside. The problem was that the production never consistently materialized, which now feels relevant as the Bucks once again enter an uncertain organizational phase exactly ten drafts later.
It’s well known around the league that Giannis’ long-term future in Milwaukee has become a major talking point. Even if he remains with the organization, the Bucks are clearly approaching a transition point organizationally, which changes the type of prospect they may prioritize here.
Instead of simply targeting complementary role players, Milwaukee may feel pressure to identify someone capable of eventually becoming one of the primary engines of the next era. Yaxel Lendeborg makes a lot of sense through that lens despite being older than many prospects in this range. Labaron Philon could appeal as a dynamic lead guard option capable of eventually steering an offense.
Milwaukee has also never been shy about deviating from consensus if it believes strongly in a player, which makes someone like Ebuka Okorie fascinating here. Okorie may not universally project this high right now, but the appeal is obvious. He’s a freshman with elite measurables, impressive shot creation indicators, real passing flashes, and one of the strongest unassisted scoring profiles in the class. That archetype becomes significantly more attractive if Milwaukee believes it may eventually need another player capable of carrying offensive responsibility long term.
Whoever the Bucks select here may inherit the somewhat unfair responsibility of helping usher in the next phase of franchise history. That’s a lot of pressure for the tenth pick.
SHOULD YOU BE WORRIED?: Oh Yeah.
Pick #11: Golden State Warriors
Previous Picks at #11: Tyrone Hill (1990), Todd Fuller (1996), Mickael Pietrus (2003), Andris Biedrins (2004), Klay Thompson (2011)
Joining Milwaukee, the Golden State Warriors are another team selecting in a slot they’ve occupied several times during the Larry Bird Era. The results here have been a little all over the place.
Back in 1990, Golden State selected Tyrone Hill out of Xavier. Hill steadily improved during his time with the Warriors before eventually becoming an All-Star later in his career with Cleveland. Unfortunately for Golden State, the return on trading Hill ultimately became Clifford Rozier—a move that aged poorly in hindsight.
A few years later came one of the more infamous misses in franchise history. In the loaded 1996 NBA Draft, the Warriors selected Todd Fuller out of NC State. Fuller never developed into a meaningful NBA player despite entering the league with strong collegiate production.
Thankfully for Golden State, things eventually improved. The Warriors found productive rotation players in Mickaël Piétrus and Andris Biedriņš during the early 2000s, with both playing important roles on the iconic “We Believe” Warriors teams. Then came the home run selection in 2011 when Golden State drafted Klay Thompson with the 11th pick. The rest is basketball history. Thompson became one of the greatest shooters ever, helped form the most dangerous shooting backcourt the league has seen alongside Stephen Curry, and played a massive role in four championships.
The challenge now is that Golden State enters a completely different phase organizationally. The Warriors are no longer the unstoppable dynasty hovering over the league. They’ve become more of a perennial Play-In-level team, and the core of Curry, Draymond Green, and Jimmy Butler is obviously not getting any younger. Unlike several teams higher in the lottery, Golden State likely isn’t searching for a franchise-altering superstar here. They’re searching for someone capable of helping extend the competitiveness of this era while also providing some long-term functionality once the current core ages out.
That opens the door to several different archetypes. Yaxel Lendeborg makes a lot of sense despite being older for a rookie. His versatility, size, rebounding, and improving offensive feel would fit beautifully within Golden State’s ecosystem. Brayden Burries could also be especially intriguing because of his ability to play off the ball while still providing athleticism and defensive upside.
There are also players like Morez Johnson Jr., whose toughness and defensive versatility feel very Warriors-coded, or Nate Ament, whose theoretical 3-and-D projection would naturally appeal to Golden State’s spacing ecosystem. Even Hannes Steinbach could make sense simply because of his rebounding, feel, and interior size.
The important thing here is that Golden State doesn’t necessarily need to find “the guy” at pick eleven. They need to find someone who can play winning basketball alongside stars, and historically, that’s actually something this organization has done fairly well.
SHOULD YOU BE WORRIED?: Probably. But You Still Have Steph!
Pick #12: Oklahoma City Thunder
Previous Picks at #12: Vladimir Radmanovic (2001), Nick Collison (2003), Robert Swift (2004), Steven Adams (2013), Jalen Williams (2022), Dereck Lively II (2023), Nikola Topic (2024)
The Oklahoma City Thunder lead the pack in this exercise when it comes to drafting at the same slot repeatedly. Between the Seattle SuperSonics and Oklahoma City eras, the franchise has selected 12th overall seven different times during the Larry Bird Era.
Some of those picks became foundational pieces. Others…not so much.
During the Seattle years, the franchise selected players like Vladimir Radmanović, Nick Collison, and Robert Swift within a short stretch. Radmanović became a productive rotational scorer before eventually being moved for Chris Wilcox, while Swift’s career never fully materialized due to injuries and inconsistency.
Then there’s Collison.
Nick became one of the most beloved players in franchise history despite never putting up massive numbers. He ultimately spent all 14 years of his NBA career with the organization, bridging both the Seattle and Oklahoma City eras before eventually joining the front office in a player development role. In many ways, Collison represented the kind of connective, winning player this franchise has consistently valued.
That identity became even more obvious once the team arrived in Oklahoma City.
In 2013, the Thunder selected Steven Adams, who quickly became a fan favorite because of his toughness, physicality, and willingness to do the dirty work. Nearly a decade later, OKC struck gold again when they selected Jalen Williams in the 2022 NBA Draft. J-Dub rapidly developed into one of the best young wings in basketball and became a foundational piece of the Thunder’s championship core.
The following year, Oklahoma City technically selected Dereck Lively II before flipping him to Dallas for Cason Wallace and financial flexibility. So far, the move has worked out pretty well for both teams. Lively has been impactful when healthy, but Wallace has become a major contributor on one of the best teams in basketball.
Then came Nikola Topić in 2024. With an already-loaded roster, the Thunder were in a position where they could afford to gamble on a highly talented player recovering from injury. That’s the luxury of building one of the deepest organizations in basketball.
That’s also what makes this pick fascinating.
Unlike most teams in the lottery, Oklahoma City doesn’t need immediate star production here. The Thunder are already champions with one of the youngest cores in the NBA still intact. But several matchups against the Spurs this season—particularly those involving Victor Wembanyama—did highlight that this roster may still need to reach another physical level.
Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein have both been highly impactful, but Oklahoma City could still benefit from adding more frontcourt strength, rebounding, and defensive versatility.
That opens the door to several interesting options.
Morez Johnson Jr. could fit beautifully within OKC’s defensive ecosystem because of his physicality and ability to defend multiple actions. Jayden Quaintance carries medical questions, but if teams feel comfortable with the long-term outlook, his athleticism and defensive upside would be extremely intriguing in this environment. Hannes Steinbach has drawn comparisons to Hartenstein because of his size, rebounding, and offensive feel.
At the same time, Oklahoma City may simply continue leaning into versatile wing depth. Players like Dailyn Swain, Nate Ament, or Cameron Carr all feel plausible given the Thunder’s love for length, versatility, and developmental upside.
The important thing here is that Oklahoma City no longer has to draft out of desperation. They can prioritize infrastructure, fit, and long-term sustainability instead of forcing a player into immediate responsibility. Eventually, the financial realities of maintaining a championship core will force younger players into larger roles, making it increasingly important for the Thunder to prioritize production and functionality over pure theoretical upside.
Historically, this organization has done that extremely well.
SHOULD YOU BE WORRIED?: Not Right Now
Pick #13: Miami Heat
Previous Picks at #13: Tyler Herro (2019)
The Miami Heat are one of several teams in this lottery drafting at a spot they’ve only selected from once before during the Larry Bird Era—and it really wasn’t that long ago.
Back in the 2019 NBA Draft, Miami selected Tyler Herro out of Kentucky with the 13th pick.
That selection has aged pretty well.
Herro spent just one season at Kentucky before entering the NBA, and he has steadily grown into one of the better offensive guards from his draft class. Since arriving in Miami, Tyler has averaged over 20 points per game across multiple seasons, earned an All-Star appearance, and won Sixth Man of the Year.
More importantly, Herro represents something Miami has consistently done well during the Pat Riley era:
Finding contributors without needing premium draft positioning.
That matters because the Heat constantly operate under pressure. Miami is perpetually balancing playoff expectations, aggressive cap management, and the pursuit of star-level free-agent talent. Hitting on picks in this range is not optional for them—it’s necessary.
To their credit, they’ve largely done it.
Kasparas Jakučionis immediately looked like a strong value selection in last year’s draft, flashing efficient shooting, passing feel, and defensive competitiveness. Kel’el Ware still has areas to refine, but his combination of rim protection, rebounding, and floor spacing gives Miami an intriguing modern center archetype. Jaime Jaquez Jr. has already developed into one of the more reliable connective forwards in basketball.
That brings us to 2026.
Miami once again feels like a team searching for another offensive organizer—someone capable of helping initiate offense while fitting into the Heat’s demanding developmental environment.
That could make several guards in this range extremely interesting.
Labaron Philon, Kingston Flemings, Ebuka Okorie, and Bennett Stirtz all make varying degrees of sense depending on how Miami prioritizes shot creation, decision-making, and defensive versatility.
The Heat could also pivot toward wing depth.
Dailyn Swain and Cameron Carr would fit the sort of athletic, developmental wing archetypes Miami has historically gravitated toward. Even a bigger swing like Morez Johnson Jr. cannot be entirely ruled out despite the current frontcourt makeup.
The important thing is this:
Miami feels like one of the few organizations in this range where role clarity and developmental expectations are already firmly established.
That doesn’t guarantee they’ll make the perfect selection, but it does make it easier to trust the infrastructure surrounding whichever player ultimately lands there.
Plenty of directions make sense for Miami here.
Most of them probably end with a useful NBA player.
SHOULD YOU BE WORRIED?: Believe Until Given a Reason to Not.
Pick #14: Charlotte Hornets
Previous Picks at #14: (None)
The Charlotte Hornets close out both this portion of the lottery and this edition of the “Should You Be Worried?” mini-series. Like the Clippers earlier in the lottery, Charlotte has never drafted at this exact slot during the Larry Bird Era, so we have to lean more heavily on recent draft history.
Honestly, how confident you feel about Charlotte probably depends on how far back you choose to look.
If you focus on the recent past, there’s actually quite a bit of reason for optimism.
Last season, the Hornets brought in Kon Knueppel, Sion James, and Ryan Kalkbrenner—all of whom immediately contributed to a team that jumped from 19 wins to 44. Knueppel especially looked like a home run selection, giving Cooper Flagg a legitimate run for Rookie of the Year while looking every bit like a future All-Star.
Brandon Miller has already developed into a consistent 20-point-per-game scorer, while LaMelo Ball has finally begun translating his talent into more winning basketball.
Even the earlier reach on Tidjane Salaün doesn’t feel nearly as questionable now as it did on draft night.
That matters because Charlotte suddenly feels like an organization with actual direction.
The Hornets are no longer drafting from a place of desperation. They already have a clearer pecking order than several teams around them in this range, which gives them flexibility entering the middle of this draft.
That flexibility could open the door to several fascinating options.
Jayden Quaintance probably carries one of the murkier medical evaluations in the class, but if teams feel comfortable long term, his combination of defensive upside, athleticism, and passing feel gives him legitimate Top-10 talent in this draft.
Morez Johnson Jr. and Yaxel Lendeborg both make a lot of sense as physical frontcourt additions capable of complementing Charlotte’s current core. Nate Ament would fit beautifully as a long-term 3-and-D forward option if he’s still available here.
There are also versatile wings like Karim Lopez and Dailyn Swain, along with skilled big man Hannes Steinbach, whose rebounding and natural feel could easily appeal to a front office looking to strengthen its rotation depth.
More importantly, Charlotte finally feels stable.
That can obviously change quickly in the NBA—just ask the Hornets from two years ago—but this roster no longer feels like it’s searching for a singular savior. There’s less pressure here to land a future superstar and more emphasis on continuing to build functional infrastructure around the players already in place.
That’s a much healthier place to draft from.
SHOULD YOU BE WORRIED?: Strangely, No.
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