Should You Be Worried? PT. 2 | 2026 NBA Draft
Stephen Gillaspie continues to examine the organizations, timelines, and developmental ecosystems surrounding the 2026 NBA Draft class.
One of my favorite things to do during the draft cycle is look backward. It’s fun to let the fan in me take over a little bit—to guide my fingers across the keyboard in a way that isn’t always as “buttoned up,” so to speak. Draft history tells us a lot about organizations, how they view team building, and the kinds of bets they’re willing to make when the pressure is highest.
Because make no mistake: the draft shapes the direction of the NBA far more than traditional coverage often gives it credit for.
What we’ll be doing today is looking at the “success rate” of NBA organizations drafting at the exact spots they are currently slated to pick (trades pending) in the 2026 NBA Draft. For this exercise, we’ll once again go all the way back to the 1978 NBA Draft—commonly known as the Larry Bird draft.
That’s partially because the 1978 Draft helped lay the foundation for one of the most important eras in league history. Larry Bird in 1978. Magic Johnson in 1979. A rivalry that changed the trajectory of the NBA and helped elevate the league into something nationally captivating.
And partially because… well, I think it’s fun.
The 2026 NBA Draft class is fascinating because of how differently organizations may approach it. There’s star power at the top, legitimate depth throughout the first round, and an oversaturation of guards that will force front offices to separate preference from projection. Some teams will prioritize upside swings. Others may lean toward proven production and roster fit. Developmental timelines, organizational patience, and roster infrastructure all matter here.
Not every franchise handles those variables equally well.
Which leads us to the most important question a fan can ask this time of year:
SHOULD YOU BE WORRIED?!?!? [cue dramatic music]
Pick #15: Chicago Bulls
Previous Picks at #15: (None)
Not only do the Chicago Bulls land a Top 4 pick in a draft that appears to have a very strong upper tier of prospects, but they also sit in prime position to capitalize on the first selection outside of the lottery. That gives Chicago an opportunity to potentially leave this draft with both a foundational centerpiece and another meaningful long-term rotation piece.
Interestingly enough, the Bulls have never drafted 15th overall during the Larry Bird Era, which makes leaning on historical precedent a little difficult here. On top of that, Chicago’s front office has undergone significant philosophical changes recently, making older draft tendencies feel less relevant than they otherwise might.
Assuming the Bulls land one of Cameron Boozer, Caleb Wilson, or Darryn Peterson earlier in the draft, this pick becomes far more flexible. The only real guideline appears to be the continuation of the organization’s S.L.A.P. philosophy—centered around Size, Length, Athleticism, and Physicality.
That could make someone like Cameron Carr extremely appealing here. Carr checks several of the boxes that Chicago now appears to prioritize organizationally. He had over 40 dunks on the season, shot nearly 38% from three, and generated 73 stocks, giving him one of the more intriguing two-way statistical profiles in this range.
Chicago could also treat this pick as more of a luxury swing, depending on who they land at fourth overall. Karim Lopez would fit that mold well because of his combination of size, strength, rebounding, and scoring ability through contact. There are also several interesting frontcourt options if the Bulls decide to add more size to the rotation. Hannes Steinbach and Jayden Quaintance could both provide immediate frontcourt help, while Luigi Suigo and Chris Cenac Jr. may offer even more long-term upside because of their floor-spacing potential.
There is certainly pressure attached to both of Chicago’s first round picks as the franchise enters a new era, but the luxury of landing a potential face of the franchise player earlier in the draft changes the equation here. The Bulls do not necessarily need to force a home run with this selection. They can prioritize fit, upside, depth, or developmental projection depending on how the board falls.
For the first time in a while, Chicago feels like an organization drafting with optionality instead of mediocrity.
SHOULD YOU BE WORRIED?: Enjoy The Player You Took at 4!
Pick #16: Memphis Grizzlies
Previous Picks at #16: Hansen Yang (2025)
The 2026 NBA Draft has a chance to become a pivotal turning point for the Memphis Grizzlies organization. Much like the Bulls earlier in this piece, Memphis sits in an enviable position where they can potentially land both a franchise centerpiece at the top of the draft and another highly useful prospect immediately outside the lottery.
Unlike Chicago, the Grizzlies actually have recent history of drafting at this spot. Just last year, Memphis and Portland agreed to a deal involving the 16th pick, where the Grizzlies acquired Cedric Coward from the Trail Blazers while Portland received the pick that eventually became Hansen Yang, along with additional draft compensation.
So far, that trade looks pretty favorable for Memphis.
Coward immediately became a productive two-way contributor for the Grizzlies, averaging 13.6 PPG, 5.9 RPG, and 2.8 APG on efficient shooting splits while earning All-Rookie First Team honors and finishing fifth in Rookie of the Year voting. His ability to contribute on both ends of the floor quickly earned him a significant role within the rotation.
Meanwhile, Hansen Yang struggled to carve out consistent minutes in Portland during his rookie season. Obviously, it’s still far too early to close the book on a young big man prospect, but early returns suggest Memphis identified the more immediately impactful player.
That context matters because the Grizzlies once again enter this draft from a position of flexibility.
Assuming AJ Dybantsa comes off the board first overall, and Utah selects whichever player it prefers between Darryn Peterson, Caleb Wilson, or Cameron Boozer, Memphis will still walk away with one of the elite prospects in this class at the top of the draft.
That makes this selection feel much more like a luxury pick.
If the Grizzlies ultimately land one of the forwards from the perceived “Big Four” earlier in the draft, there would be a real opportunity to address the long-term guard situation here, especially if the organization eventually pivots away from Ja Morant. Labaron Philon could make a lot of sense as a smooth-operating lead guard capable of managing an offense while still bringing some defensive upside. Ebuka Okorie offers a completely different profile as a true freshman creator with real rim pressure, passing feel, shooting upside, and absurd length for the position. Bennett Stirtz could even appeal as a continuity play stylistically because of some of the connective guard traits he shares with players like Ty Jerome.
At the same time, Memphis may feel completely comfortable with a current guard rotation involving Jerome, Scotty Pippen Jr., Walter Clayton Jr., and Javon Small. If that’s the case, someone like Dailyn Swain could make sense as a downhill driver and versatile wing addition. Nate Ament would also be difficult to ignore if he somehow slid this far because of his size and long-term two-way upside.
Frontcourt depth could easily enter the equation as well, given the injury history of Zach Edey. Prospects like Chris Cenac Jr., Luigi Suigo, Henri Veesaar, Tarris Reed Jr., or Zuby Ejiofor could all plausibly enter the conversation depending on how Memphis views its long-term frontcourt rotation.
More importantly, Memphis has consistently earned the benefit of the doubt when it comes to drafting and player development. Between the Coward trade and several successful selections throughout this era, the Grizzlies have built legitimate credibility organizationally.
With a new foundational piece likely arriving earlier in the draft, this selection feels less about saving the franchise and more about fortifying a roster that still believes it can return to contention relatively quickly.
SHOULD YOU BE WORRIED?: No Way.
Pick #17: Oklahoma City Thunder
Previous Picks at #17: Shawn Kemp (1989), Doug Christie (1992), Desmond Mason (2000)
In Part One of this mini-series, the Oklahoma City Thunder were one of the teams that had drafted at their 2026 draft slot the most often throughout the Larry Bird Era. Part Two continues that trend, as the Thunder—dating back to the Seattle Supersonics days—have selected 17th overall three different times.
The first of those picks came in 1989, when Seattle drafted one of the most beloved players in franchise history: Shawn Kemp. Kemp famously bypassed college basketball after a series of eligibility and legal complications, eventually training for the NBA following encouragement from Magic Johnson, who reportedly told him he was ready for the league.
That turned out to be pretty accurate.
Kemp gradually developed from an energetic young reserve into one of the most dominant athletes in basketball during the 1990s. Between 1992 and 1997, he averaged nearly 19 points and 11 rebounds per game while earning five consecutive All-Star appearances and multiple All-NBA selections. Eventually, Seattle dealt Kemp in a massive three-team trade that brought Vin Baker to the organization. Baker initially played at an All-Star level in Seattle before things gradually declined.
The next time Seattle drafted 17th overall came in 1992, when they selected Doug Christie. Christie never actually played for the Sonics, though, as he was immediately moved alongside Benoit Benjamin in exchange for veteran forward Sam Perkins. Perkins became an incredibly valuable piece for the Sonics during the Gary Payton/Shawn Kemp era because of his versatility, floor spacing, and willingness to embrace a complementary role off the bench.
Seattle landed at 17 once again in 2000, drafting Oklahoma State wing Desmond Mason. Mason quickly became a productive rotational player and eventual Sixth Man of the Year candidate before being included alongside Gary Payton in the blockbuster trade that brought Ray Allen to Seattle.
That deal obviously changed the trajectory of the franchise for several years. Allen became one of the faces of the organization before eventually being moved to Boston in the trade that brought back Jeff Green and additional assets during the early stages of Seattle’s transition toward Oklahoma City.
Now, 26 years later, the Thunder once again hold the 17th pick—this time for the first time since relocating to Oklahoma City.
The biggest question here may not even be who Oklahoma City selects, but whether they stay at this pick at all. With both the 12th and 17th selections in the 2026 NBA Draft, along with arguably the deepest asset pool in basketball, there is a very real possibility that Sam Presti explores packaging picks together to move higher in the draft.
If the Thunder stay put, though, there should still be some extremely intriguing players available depending on what they do earlier in the lottery.
Assuming Oklahoma City uses the 12th pick on a forward or big man, this slot could become an opportunity to add another guard creator, such as Ebuka Okorie or Bennett Stirtz. Both offer strong feel, shot-creation ability, and offensive versatility that could eventually help sustain the Thunder’s offensive ecosystem long term.
If OKC instead leans toward perimeter size earlier in the draft, a player like Chris Cenac Jr. could become very appealing because of his rebounding presence and long-term floor-spacing upside. Wings like Billy Richmond III or Karim Lopez also feel very Thunder-coded because of the toughness, size, versatility, and connective play style both players bring.
The scary part for the rest of the league is that Oklahoma City doesn’t need immediate production from either of these picks. The Thunder are drafting from a position of complete organizational stability while already competing for championships. Even if only one of these selections eventually turns into a meaningful rotational contributor, Oklahoma City remains perfectly positioned to sustain this era of dominance for years to come.
SHOULD YOU BE WORRIED?: Nope.
Pick #18: Charlotte Hornets
Previous Picks at #18: (None)
The Charlotte Hornets join the growing list of teams selecting at a draft slot they have never occupied before during the Larry Bird Era. They also join the group of organizations in this piece holding both a lottery pick and an additional first round selection, giving them an opportunity to continue layering talent onto one of the league’s more promising young cores.
With the 14th pick, Charlotte will likely have access to one of the cleaner talent tiers in the draft. By the time the Hornets arrive at 18, though, things could become significantly more interesting stylistically.
This feels like the range where organizations begin deciding how much they trust their own infrastructure and player development.
The Hornets no longer feel like an organization drafting purely from desperation. With LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller, Kon Knueppel, and several other young contributors already in place, Charlotte has enough organizational momentum to justify taking a few developmental swings if the team believes strongly in the long-term upside.
At the same time, there are safer and more proven options likely available in this range as well. Tarris Reed Jr. and Henri Veesaar could both provide immediate frontcourt depth and physicality. Isaiah Evans would fit nicely as a microwave floor-spacing option, particularly considering Charlotte’s history of showing interest in players from nearby programs. There may even be a world where the Zuby Ejiofor believers finally get their wish here.
Much like several of the teams discussed earlier in this piece, Charlotte feels positioned to continue moving in the right direction simply because of the amount of talent still available throughout this draft. The Hornets already appear to have established a much clearer organizational identity than they had just a few seasons ago, which removes some of the pressure attached to these picks.
Odds are that one of these selections becomes at least a useful rotation player. If things break correctly, Charlotte could realistically walk away from this draft with two more foundational pieces added to an already exciting young core.
SHOULD YOU BE WORRIED?: This Should Be Fun!
Pick #19: Toronto Raptors
Previous Picks at #19: Ja’Kobe Walter (2024)
The Toronto Raptors have actually drafted at 19th overall fairly recently. Back in the 2024 NBA Draft, Toronto selected Ja’Kobe Walter out of Baylor with the 19th pick.
Walter entered the league as a somewhat polarizing evaluation despite an impressive freshman résumé. At Baylor, he averaged 14.5 PPG while earning Big 12 Rookie of the Year honors and making both the All-Freshman and All-Big 12 teams. The efficiency numbers were uneven at times, but the appeal centered around his shooting projection, athleticism, and defensive tools.
So far, the selection has aged reasonably well.
Walter has steadily developed into a useful rotational player for Toronto over his first two NBA seasons. While the raw production has fluctuated slightly, his efficiency improved significantly during his sophomore season, particularly from three-point range. More importantly, he contributed meaningful minutes for a Raptors team that pushed the Cleveland Cavaliers to seven games in the first round of the Eastern Conference Playoffs.
Honestly, that’s probably the realistic hope when selecting in this range of the draft.
Toronto now finds itself drafting 19th overall again with an opportunity to add another rotational piece alongside Scottie Barnes and the rest of its young core. The challenge is that the Raptors already have several interesting pieces throughout the roster, which makes projecting their priorities a little more difficult.
The frontcourt appears mostly intact outside of perhaps the long-term center position, though Collin Murray-Boyles has shown real promise operating as a small-ball five. That’s what makes someone like Jayden Quaintance especially intriguing if medical evaluations lead to him sliding into this range. His defensive upside, athleticism, and versatility would fit seamlessly within Toronto’s developmental ecosystem.
Hannes Steinbach could also make a lot of sense because of his rebounding, interior presence, and offensive feel. Joshua Jefferson feels particularly Raptors-coded as a forward with size, playmaking instincts, defensive versatility, and improving shooting touch.
There are also several developmental swings that feel stylistically aligned with Toronto’s historical preferences. Allen Graves would provide floor spacing, rebounding, and defensive playmaking while fitting the length profile the Raptors have prioritized for years. Maybe they draft an Italian, floor-spacing big man like Luigi Suigo. They haven’t done that before. Zuby Ejiofor and Henri Veesaar could also offer additional frontcourt depth.
The important thing with Toronto is that the organization has consistently maximized talent development regardless of where players were drafted. The Raptors have built one of the strongest developmental infrastructures in basketball over the last decade, which naturally creates more optimism around whoever they select here.
At the same time, there is some added pressure attached to this pick. Toronto only holds one first rounder, and the roster already has significant money tied into several long-term contracts. That makes hitting on later draft selections increasingly important, even if threading that needle becomes more difficult this late in the first round.
SHOULD YOU BE WORRIED?: Probably a Little
Pick #20: San Antonio Spurs
Previous Picks at #20: Frankie Sanders (1978), James Anderson (2010), Malaki Branham (2022)
With the San Antonio Spurs being one of the most successful organizations in NBA history, it’s not surprising to see that they have a little history drafting with the 20th pick. The first instance during the Larry Bird Era actually came in the Larry Bird Draft itself, back in 1978.
While Larry Bird famously went sixth overall to Boston, San Antonio selected Frankie Sanders out of Southern University with the 20th pick. Sanders was an explosive scorer collegiately, averaging over 27 points per game in his lone college season while shooting over 56% from the floor. Unfortunately, his NBA career never gained traction because of off-court issues related to substance abuse and partying. The Spurs eventually cut Sanders during his rookie season, and after brief stops with Boston and Kansas City, his NBA career quickly ended.
It wouldn’t be until the 2010 NBA Draft that San Antonio drafted 20th overall again. This time, the Spurs selected James Anderson out of Oklahoma State after a dominant collegiate season that saw him win Big 12 Player of the Year honors. The issue for Anderson was opportunity more than talent. He joined a veteran-heavy Spurs roster built around Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginóbili while the organization was still aggressively competing for championships. Anderson struggled to carve out a consistent role and was eventually waived after limited production.
Twelve years later, San Antonio was back at #20 again in the 2022 NBA Draft, selecting Malaki Branham out of Ohio State. Branham initially flashed some scoring ability and played real minutes during his rookie season, but he never fully solidified himself as a long-term piece for the organization. Eventually, San Antonio moved Branham alongside Blake Wesley and draft compensation in exchange for veteran big man Kelly Olynyk.
If history tells us anything about the Spurs at this draft slot, it’s that San Antonio tends to gravitate toward offensive-minded wings and scorers in this range.
That trend could continue again in 2026.
Meleek Thomas would make a ton of sense here if he ultimately remains in the draft. Cameron Carr feels especially Spurs-coded because of his combination of shooting, athleticism, and two-way upside, though there’s a legitimate chance he may not even last this long. Isaiah Evans also fits the archetype of the scoring wing San Antonio has historically targeted in this range.
There are a few interesting upside swings available as well. Tounde Yessoufou entered this cycle as one of the more highly regarded prospects in the class, and his athleticism and downhill scoring ability could make him an intriguing developmental bet if he remains in the draft. Billy Richmond III would provide additional size, toughness, and defensive versatility as the Spurs continue shaping the identity of this roster. Christian Anderson could also appeal as a floor-spacing guard capable of complementing the team’s existing young creators.
It also would not be surprising to see San Antonio lean toward older, experienced winning players in this range. Alex Karaban and Richie Saunders both bring strong feel, floor spacing, and proven winning backgrounds that could easily appeal to a Spurs organization now trying to balance development with immediate competitiveness.
That’s the biggest difference with San Antonio now compared to several years ago. The Spurs are no longer rebuilding from the ground floor. With Victor Wembanyama, Dylan Harper, and Stephon Castle already in place, this organization can afford to focus less on finding another franchise savior and more on adding depth, functionality, and lineup versatility around its core.
Sometimes, hitting a single or double is all a contender really needs.
SHOULD YOU BE WORRIED?: Not Very Much.
Pick #21: Detroit Pistons
Previous Picks at #21: (None)
Considering the winning attached to the history of the Detroit Pistons franchise, it’s honestly a little surprising that they have never previously selected with the 21st pick during the Larry Bird Era.
Detroit enters this draft in a very different place organizationally than it was even a year ago. The Pistons won 60 games this season after winning 44 the year before and pushed their way to the Eastern Conference Semifinals. By most standards, that should make this one of the healthiest situations in basketball moving forward.
And yet, there’s still an obvious tension surrounding this roster.
These playoffs reinforced something that quietly lingered throughout much of the regular season: the Pistons still need another offensive option capable of easing the burden on Cade Cunningham. Finding a true second star at pick 21 is unlikely, but Detroit absolutely has an opportunity to strengthen the ecosystem around Cade and continue building one of the toughest rosters in the Eastern Conference.
The most obvious need is floor spacing.
That immediately brings players like Meleek Thomas and Isaiah Evans into the conversation if either somehow slides into this range. Another player who feels stylistically aligned with what Detroit has prioritized is Ryan Conwell. His toughness, shot-making, and two-way competitiveness feel very Pistons-coded.
There are also several frontcourt shooters and experienced forwards who could make sense depending on how Detroit views lineup flexibility moving forward. Milan Momcilovic may legitimately be one of the best pure shooting prospects in the class, regardless of position. Alex Karaban and Richie Saunders both offer floor spacing, feel, and winning experience that would fit naturally on a playoff-caliber roster.
The frontcourt conversation also feels impossible to ignore after this postseason. Much was made of Jalen Duren and the overall big man rotation during Detroit’s playoff run, which could open the door for someone like Zuby Ejiofor or Henri Veesaar to make sense if the Pistons want additional physicality, depth, or long-term optionality at center.
What makes this pick interesting is that Detroit no longer feels like a team drafting for survival. The Pistons already have real talent, depth, and a clear organizational identity. Whoever they select here may not immediately step into a major role simply because of how competitive the current rotation already is.
At the same time, that reality can create a different kind of pressure. If Detroit eventually consolidates pieces or moves on from part of this current core, this pick suddenly becomes much more important long-term.
SHOULD YOU BE WORRIED?: Yeah, At Least a Little.
Pick #22: Philadelphia 76ers
Previous Picks at #22: Franklin Edwards (1981), Mark McNamara (1982), Tom Sewell (1984)
The Philadelphia 76ers are one of the few teams in this piece that have actually drafted at their current slot three different times during the Larry Bird Era. Interestingly enough, all three of those selections came within a relatively short stretch during the early 1980s.
The first came in the 1981 NBA Draft, when Philadelphia selected Franklin Edwards out of Cleveland State with the 22nd pick. Edwards was a prolific college scorer and playmaker, averaging nearly 25 points and over five assists per game during his senior season. His NBA role with Philadelphia ended up being much smaller, though. Edwards spent three seasons with the Sixers primarily as a reserve guard, averaging just under five points per game. While his statistical impact was limited, he was still a member of Philadelphia’s 1983 NBA Championship team.
One year later, the Sixers were back at 22 and selected Mark McNamara out of Cal. McNamara entered the league as a highly productive interior scorer and rebounder in college, but his NBA career largely settled into a backup big man role. Philadelphia eventually traded him to San Antonio before he later returned to the Sixers for brief additional stints during the latter portion of his career.
Then came the 1984 NBA Draft, where Philadelphia once again selected 22nd overall, this time taking Tom Sewell out of Lamar University. Sewell never actually played for the Sixers, though, as Philadelphia immediately moved him to the Washington Bullets for future draft compensation. His NBA career lasted just one season.
That history probably says more about the volatility of drafting in this range than anything else.
Philadelphia enters this draft in a fascinating spot organizationally. Quietly, the Sixers had one of the more impressive seasons in the Eastern Conference despite constant criticism surrounding the financial commitment to Joel Embiid and Paul George. Tyrese Maxey continued ascending as a lead guard, while VJ Edgecombe emerged as a major bright spot in the backcourt. Now, the conversation naturally shifts toward strengthening the frontcourt around them.
If Koa Peat surprisingly remains in the draft and somehow slides into this range, Philadelphia would feel like an outstanding fit despite the shooting concerns. Peat’s rebounding, energy, passing, and transition play would fit naturally alongside Maxey and Edgecombe. Billy Richmond III would also make a ton of sense as a connective, high-energy wing who is willing to defend, rebound, and handle the dirty-work aspects of winning basketball. Alex Karaban could fit cleanly as a stretch-four option capable of spacing the floor around Embiid and Maxey.
For a slightly more unconventional swing, Milan Momcilovic would give Philadelphia additional size and one of the better shooting projections in this class, even if there are legitimate defensive concerns attached to his evaluation.
If the Sixers instead prioritize additional size and frontcourt depth, Henri Veesaar and Tarris Reed Jr. could both provide depth at the five while also offering connective passing ability offensively.
One especially intriguing upside swing here could be Baba Miller. At nearly seven feet tall, Miller offers disruptive defensive potential, passing feel, and impressive mobility for his size. As far as play-finishing defenders go, there may not be many players available in this range with a more interesting physical profile.
The important thing for Philadelphia is maintaining perspective. This is a strong draft class overall, but the latter portion of the first round always becomes a little murkier when balancing talent, fit, and projection. The Sixers do not necessarily need a savior here. They simply need another functional piece capable of helping sustain meaningful playoff basketball around their core.
SHOULD YOU BE WORRIED?: I Would Say No.
Pick #23: Atlanta Hawks
Previous Picks at #23: Roy Marble (1989), John Jenkins (2012)
Since the Larry Bird Era began, the Atlanta Hawks have drafted with the 23rd pick twice.
The first came in the 1989 NBA Draft when Atlanta selected Roy Marble out of Iowa. Marble was a highly productive four-year college player, averaging over 20 points per game during his senior season while contributing as both a rebounder and defender. Unfortunately, his NBA career never fully materialized. Marble struggled to carve out consistent minutes during his rookie season with Atlanta and spent much of the following years outside of the league before briefly resurfacing with Denver later in his career.
More than two decades later, the Hawks were back at #23 in the 2012 NBA Draft, selecting John Jenkins out of Vanderbilt. Jenkins entered the league as one of the better shooters in college basketball after an outstanding junior season where he averaged nearly 20 points per game while shooting 44% from three. His rookie season with Atlanta was encouraging enough for him to receive some Rookie of the Year consideration, but he ultimately settled into more of a rotational shooting specialist role before bouncing around the league for several seasons.
That history feels somewhat fitting for where Atlanta currently sits as an organization.
The Hawks enter this draft in a fascinating transitional phase following the trade of longtime franchise centerpiece Trae Young. Jalen Johnson has absorbed a tremendous amount of offensive responsibility and continues to look like a foundational piece moving forward, while Nickeil Alexander-Walker had a breakout campaign that resulted in a Most Improved Player award. CJ McCollum also remains an important veteran presence whose future contract situation could influence some of Atlanta’s long-term roster planning.
The biggest roster question still feels centered around the center position. Depending on what Atlanta does earlier in the draft, there are several pathways that would make sense. If the Hawks opt against selecting a big man at eighth overall, this could become an interesting spot for someone like Chris Cenac Jr. if he remains available. Earlier in the draft, players such as Aday Mara, Morez Johnson Jr., or Jayden Quaintance would all make sense as larger investments in the frontcourt.
At 23, though, Atlanta has the luxury of relaxing a bit more depending on how the board falls.
If a guard unexpectedly slides because of the depth of this class, the Hawks could be in an excellent position to capitalize. Bennett Stirtz may slide slightly because of age-related concerns, while Christian Anderson could face questions tied to size. Both feel like players Atlanta would happily sprint to the podium for if they were available in this range.
Even smaller guards like Braden Smith or Tyler Tanner would not feel completely out of character for a Hawks team now looking for connective guards and decision-makers rather than heliocentric offensive engines.
The important thing for Atlanta is that this pick arrives without the same level of pressure attached to several of the surrounding selections. After already securing a highly valuable Top 10 pick in a top-heavy draft, the Hawks can afford to approach this selection with a little more freedom. Whether they opt for a safer rotational piece or swing for a higher-upside outcome, the organizational stakes simply are not quite as severe here.
SHOULD YOU BE WORRIED?: Eh, Not Really.
Pick #24: New York Knicks
Previous Picks at #24: Monty Williams (1994), Tim Hardaway Jr. (2013), Kyshawn George (2024)
The New York Knicks are actually pretty familiar with drafting at the 24th pick, having selected there three different times during the Larry Bird Era. More impressively, they’ve generally done a solid job identifying talent in this range—something that is far easier said than done.
Back in the 1994 NBA Draft, New York selected Monty Williams out of Notre Dame. Williams entered the league coming off an outstanding senior season where he averaged over 22 points per game while shooting better than 40% from three. His actual stint with the Knicks was relatively brief, though, as he played just over one full season before being traded alongside Charles Smith to the San Antonio Spurs. While Williams never became a star as a player, he obviously went on to have a highly respected coaching career.
Nearly two decades later, the Knicks were back at #24 and selected Tim Hardaway Jr. out of Michigan in the 2013 NBA Draft. Hardaway immediately became a productive scorer for New York, earning All-Rookie First Team honors while finishing fifth in Rookie of the Year voting. His relationship with the Knicks ended up becoming cyclical. After initially being traded to Atlanta, Hardaway eventually returned to New York in free agency before later being included in the blockbuster trade package involving Kristaps Porziņģis that brought future draft assets back to the organization.
Then came the 2024 NBA Draft, where the Knicks once again held the 24th pick. New York initially selected Kyshawn George before flipping him to Washington in exchange for additional draft compensation. Ultimately, the Knicks converted the pick into a collection of second rounders and flexibility, though early returns suggest George himself may already be worth more than the combined value of those assets.
The reality now is that New York enters this draft from a completely different perspective than most teams picking in this range. The Knicks have just secured their first NBA Finals appearance since 1999, so obsessing over whether pick 24 becomes a franchise-changing selection feels a little beside the point. This is a team drafting for depth, sustainability, and optionality—not salvation.
There are still some interesting needs worth monitoring, though. Mitchell Robinson’s long-term future remains somewhat uncertain, which could make frontcourt depth a priority. Tarris Reed Jr. or Henri Veesaar could all make sense as developmental bigs capable of helping stabilize the center rotation moving forward.
There are also some intriguing forward options if New York decides to address the long-term outlook at the four. Koa Peat and Karim Lopez would both be extremely interesting swings if either somehow remained available this late. Allen Graves also feels like a very Knicks-type value add because of his floor spacing, rebounding, and defensive playmaking.
One especially fun possibility would be Zuby Ejiofor. The St. John’s product would bring physicality, rebounding, and defensive energy while also giving the Knicks an easy local storyline to embrace.
Ultimately, New York is in one of the healthier positions of any team drafting in this range. Because of the level of winning this roster has already achieved, the pressure attached to this pick simply is not as intense as it is for several of the neighboring selections.
SHOULD YOU BE WORRIED?: You Made the Finals, Y’all.
Pick #25: Los Angeles Lakers
Previous Picks at #25: David Rivers (1988), Moritz Wagner (2018)
Considering the winning history attached to the Los Angeles Lakers franchise, it’s not shocking that they have often drafted this late in the first round. In fact, the Lakers have been on the board with the 25th pick twice during the Larry Bird Era.
The first came in the 1988 NBA Draft when Los Angeles selected David Rivers out of Notre Dame. Rivers entered the league after an outstanding senior season where he averaged 22 points and over five assists per game while shooting 42% from three. Unfortunately, his NBA career never fully materialized with the Lakers. Rivers lasted just one season in Los Angeles before eventually finishing out his brief NBA career with the Clippers.
Thirty years later, the Lakers were back at #25 in the 2018 NBA Draft, selecting Moritz Wagner out of Michigan. Wagner entered the league as a skilled offensive big capable of spacing the floor and operating within modern offensive systems. He spent only one season with the Lakers before becoming part of the massive trade package that brought Anthony Davis to Los Angeles.
That trade obviously worked out pretty well.
Davis became a foundational piece of the 2020 championship team for the Lakers and earned multiple All-NBA, All-Defensive, and All-Star appearances during his time with the franchise. Of course, Davis later became central to another franchise-altering move when the Lakers traded him to Dallas in exchange for Luka Dončić, signaling the beginning of an entirely new era in Los Angeles.
That’s what makes this current version of the Lakers so fascinating.
The organization feels caught between timelines. LeBron James is nearing the end of his career, while the Lakers simultaneously appear ready to fully hand the franchise over to Luka moving forward. There are still significant questions surrounding the long-term direction of the roster as well, particularly involving Austin Reaves and the frontcourt. Los Angeles added Deandre Ayton following his buyout situation, but it remains unclear whether he factors into the team’s long-term plans.
Realistically, the Lakers simply need another player capable of contributing meaningful NBA minutes.
If Koa Peat remains in the draft and somehow slides into this range, he would feel like an excellent fit because of his rebounding, physicality, connective passing, and overall feel for the game. Naturally, any big man capable of functioning effectively in pick-and-roll actions alongside Luka will immediately attract attention from this front office. Chris Cenac Jr. still has developmental areas to clean up, but his offensive upside operating next to Dončić could be extremely intriguing.
There are also several athletic perimeter players who could make sense depending on what the Lakers prioritize. Tounde Yessoufou and Billy Richmond III would both inject youth, athleticism, and defensive versatility onto the wing. Christian Anderson could be especially appealing as a floor-spacing guard whose shooting and passing would complement Luka’s drive-heavy offensive style beautifully.
The pressure surrounding this pick is obvious. The Lakers are not an organization afforded much patience, regardless of draft position or circumstance. At the same time, expecting the 25th pick to immediately become a major difference-maker for a team balancing championship aspirations with a transitional roster phase is not entirely realistic either.
SHOULD YOU BE WORRIED?: No Doubt.
Pick #26: Denver Nuggets
Previous Picks at #26: Mamadou N’Diaye (2000), Bones Hyland (2021)
The Denver Nuggets have done plenty of winning in recent years, so it’s not shocking that they have drafted with the 26th pick twice during the Larry Bird Era.
The first came in the 2000 NBA Draft when Denver selected Mamadou N’Diaye out of Auburn. N’Diaye was a physically imposing center prospect whose value largely stemmed from his size, rebounding, and rim protection. Despite a respectable collegiate career, though, his production and overall résumé felt a little underwhelming relative to where he was selected. Ultimately, N’Diaye never actually suited up for Denver, as he was packaged in a trade to Toronto shortly after being drafted.
The return for Denver didn’t exactly alter franchise history either. Kevin Willis gave the Nuggets one serviceable season before moving on, while Aleksandar Radojevic never played for the team and Garth Joseph barely saw the floor.
More than two decades later, Denver was back at #26 in the 2021 NBA Draft and selected Bones Hyland out of VCU. Hyland entered the NBA as one of the more electric scoring guards in his class after winning A-10 Player of the Year honors. He immediately flashed offensive punch for the Nuggets and earned All-Rookie Second Team honors during his first NBA season. Still, Denver eventually moved Hyland to the Clippers for a relatively modest return of two second round picks after the fit within the roster became less stable long-term.
That history matters because the Nuggets quietly feel like one of the more fascinating organizations entering the 2026 NBA Draft.
Despite still having Nikola Jokić playing at an MVP-caliber level, Denver was bounced in the first round of the playoffs in relatively convincing fashion. The roster suddenly has several structural questions attached to it. Christian Braun received a major payday and may now be carrying expectations that slightly exceed his ideal role. Peyton Watson could become difficult to retain financially. The backup center position continues to linger as a long-term concern. There are simply more cracks in the foundation than people may initially realize.
That gives Denver several directions they could reasonably take here.
If the Nuggets want to address the backup center spot directly, Henri Veesaar could make a ton of sense because of his positional playmaking, feel, and overall functionality offensively. Denver has always benefited from having bigs who can process the game quickly around Jokić-centric actions.
If they instead prioritize wing depth and athleticism, there are several intriguing possibilities. Billy Richmond III, Tounde Yessoufou, Isaiah Evans, Richie Saunders, and Alex Karaban could all realistically fit what Denver may need stylistically.
Allen Graves could also be a really interesting option as a floor-spacing, rebounding forward with defensive playmaking upside. Amari Allen feels like another plausible fit because of his rebounding, connective passing, floor spacing, and defensive versatility.
Some more dark-horse names worth monitoring here could include Ryan Conwell, Trevon Brazile, and Quadir Copeland, depending on how Denver prioritizes lineup versatility and secondary playmaking.
The bigger concern for Denver ultimately extends beyond this selection, though. The Nuggets are trying to navigate the difficult middle ground between remaining a championship contender around Jokić while also reshaping portions of the supporting cast on the fly. There are ways to improve the roster through this draft, but realistically, the 26th pick alone probably is not solving the larger structural questions facing the franchise.
SHOULD YOU BE WORRIED?: Yeah, Kinda.
Pick #27: Boston Celtics
Previous Picks at #27: Robert Williams III (2018)
Seeing the Boston Celtics land at the 27th pick for just the second time during the Larry Bird Era may catch some people off guard. What should not surprise anyone, though, is that Boston absolutely nailed their only previous selection at this spot.
Back in the 2018 NBA Draft, the Celtics selected Robert Williams III after concerns surrounding his draft stock caused him to slide further than many expected. Boston simply trusted the talent, took the best player available, and it paid off. Williams’s rookie season was modest statistically, but his role steadily expanded year after year until he fully broke out during the 2021-2022 season. That year, Williams averaged 10 points, nearly 10 rebounds, and over two blocks per game while earning All-Defensive Second Team honors and receiving Defensive Player of the Year votes. He eventually became one of the most impactful defensive centers in basketball during his peak with the Celtics.
Boston ultimately moved Williams, along with Malcolm Brogdon and additional draft capital, in the deal that brought Jrue Holiday to the Celtics—a move that played a massive role in the franchise eventually winning the 2024 NBA Championship.
That history feels relevant because Boston once again enters this draft from a position where the organization simply needs functionality more than star power. The Celtics went through one of the stranger seasons in recent memory. What initially looked like a transition or “gap” year shifted dramatically following Jayson Tatum’s recovery, only for Boston to ultimately suffer an early playoff exit and immediately re-enter the familiar media discourse surrounding whether Tatum and Jaylen Brown can coexist long term.
Still, it’s difficult to feel like the future of the franchise hinges heavily on the 27th pick. Boston actually has several younger wings and forwards who have started to emerge as useful pieces. The biggest question mark on the roster currently feels more centered around the center position. Neemias Queta developed into a serviceable full-time starter, while Luka Garza has proven capable as a reserve option, but there is still room for Boston to add another frontcourt look.
Henri Veesaar would fit Boston stylistically as a skilled big who is capable of making connective passing reads within an offense that heavily emphasizes spacing and perimeter shooting. Tarris Reed Jr. may honestly be one of the cleaner fits in this range because of his strength, length, rebounding, and ability to process difficult passing reads defensively and offensively.
There is also a real possibility that Boston uses this selection as part of a larger trade, depending on how the front office ultimately evaluates the top of the roster moving forward. If the Celtics simply stay at 27 and make the pick themselves, though, the expectations here are fairly straightforward: Boston does not need a home run. They just need someone capable of consistently getting on base within a winning environment.
SHOULD YOU BE WORRIED?: Not for the Draft.
Pick #28: Minnesota Timberwolves
Previous Picks at #28: Wayne Ellington (2009)
The Minnesota Timberwolves have drafted at the 28th pick just one time during the Larry Bird Era. Back in the 2009 NBA Draft, Minnesota selected Wayne Ellington out of North Carolina.
Ellington entered the league fresh off winning an NCAA Championship with UNC, where he was also named the NCAA Tournament’s Most Outstanding Player. In his final college season, he averaged 15.8 PPG while shooting over 42% from three-point range, making him one of the more polished shooters in that draft class.
His NBA career ultimately settled into more of a rotational role.
Ellington spent the first three seasons of his career in Minnesota, mostly coming off the bench while averaging 6.5 points per game and shooting 38% from deep. Midway through the 2012-2013 season, the Timberwolves traded Ellington in exchange for Dante Cunningham, who became a useful depth forward for a couple of seasons.
That history feels fitting considering where Minnesota currently sits organizationally.
The Timberwolves are firmly in the tier of teams capable of competing deep into the Western Conference playoffs, but they still feel a step below the true NBA Finals favorites. Realistically, expecting the 28th pick alone to push Minnesota over the top is probably asking too much. If the Wolves ultimately make a massive leap, it is more likely to come through a major trade or roster consolidation move rather than this selection specifically.
That said, there is still legitimate pressure attached to this pick.
Minnesota’s roster is approaching an inflection point financially and structurally. Ayo Dosunmu may become difficult to retain long-term, especially after the organization already had to get creative in replacing Nickeil Alexander-Walker. There is also a growing sense that the Julius Randle, Rudy Gobert, and Naz Reid frontcourt combination may eventually need some level of restructuring.
Most importantly, the Timberwolves still need to continue optimizing the roster around Anthony Edwards.
That’s what makes Christian Anderson such an intriguing fit here. Anderson checks a lot of boxes for what Minnesota currently lacks. He can organize offense, create advantages as a passer, space the floor, and provide some defensive playmaking as well. On a roster that still needs steadier point guard play long term, his fit makes a lot of sense.
Billy Richmond III could also appeal because of his size, defensive effort, rebounding activity, and willingness to make connective hustle plays around stars.
It may feel slightly unconventional to some, but Braden Smith could honestly make quite a bit of sense for Minnesota in a reserve role. Smith is an elite organizer offensively, consistently makes smart decisions, and has become a very reliable shooter. On a team already driven by Anthony Edwards’s scoring gravity, adding a stabilizing decision-maker off the bench could be extremely valuable.
The Wolves are good enough now that this pick no longer carries franchise-altering expectations. Still, with the roster beginning to feel slightly expensive and somewhat stagnant around the edges, there is very real pressure for Minnesota to land at least a useful rotational contributor here.
SHOULD YOU BE WORRIED?: Only a Little.
Pick #29: Cleveland Cavaliers
Previous Picks at #29: (None)
At first glance, it’s honestly a little surprising that the Cleveland Cavaliers have never drafted with the 29th pick during the Larry Bird Era—especially considering how long the franchise has been tied to LeBron James and playoff basketball.
But once you zoom out, it starts to make more sense.
Since drafting LeBron in 2003, Cleveland has routinely sacrificed first round picks in pursuit of immediate contention. The Cavaliers did not own first round selections in the 2005, 2007, 2010, 2016, 2017, 2023, or 2025 NBA Drafts because of various win-now moves surrounding multiple competitive windows.
That context matters when evaluating their drafting history overall.
Cleveland’s last several first round selections have produced mixed results. Jaylon Tyson was selected 20th overall in 2024 and still feels somewhat incomplete as a long-term evaluation. Ochai Agbaji was eventually included in the blockbuster trade package that landed Donovan Mitchell alongside former lottery selections Collin Sexton and Lauri Markkanen.
Then there are the bigger swings.
Evan Mobley has obviously become an impactful player, but hindsight conversations surrounding names like Scottie Barnes, Alperen Şengün, Jalen Johnson, and Trey Murphy III still linger. Isaac Okoro was selected ahead of players like Tyrese Haliburton, Tyrese Maxey, Deni Avdija, and Jaden McDaniels. Darius Garland eventually became good enough to headline a major trade package himself before being moved to the Clippers in exchange for James Harden.
Some of that comes down to luck. Some of it comes down to evaluation. Usually, successful organizations need both things to cooperate at the same time.
Cleveland reached the Eastern Conference Finals this season, but there was still a noticeable gap between the Cavaliers and the true championship tier. The biggest issue continues to be the wing position, particularly when it comes to two-way size and lineup flexibility. Unfortunately for Cleveland, many of the cleaner wing fits may already be off the board by this point in the draft.
Meleek Thomas or Isaiah Evans would probably represent the dream scenarios here because of the floor spacing and offensive upside both could provide. The concern, of course, is whether Cleveland can realistically survive defensively with smaller perimeter combinations involving Harden, Mitchell, and either of those players sharing the floor together.
Joshua Jefferson feels like a more natural stylistic fit if he’s available. His positional playmaking, rebounding, defensive versatility, and improved shooting would help address several needs simultaneously. Quadir Copeland could also make sense as a larger connective wing capable of defending and facilitating offense in secondary actions.
One player who feels especially interesting in this range is Tounde Yessoufou if he elects to remain in the draft. The physical tools are obvious. He has the strength, athleticism, and motor to become a disruptive perimeter defender and impactful rebounder, while the offensive production this season quietly outperformed the way he was publicly discussed throughout much of the cycle.
The important thing for Cleveland is that this pick carries more pressure than a normal selection near the end of the first round typically would. The Cavaliers are no longer rebuilding. They’re operating with legitimate championship expectations, which means this organization needs contributors and not projects if it wants to close the gap between being a very good team and a true Finals contender.
SHOULD YOU BE WORRIED?: Yep.
Pick #30: Dallas Mavericks
Previous Picks at #30: (None)
Like several of the other teams discussed throughout this piece, it’s a little surprising that the Dallas Mavericks—a franchise with an NBA Championship and several extended stretches of relevance—have never previously drafted 30th overall during the Larry Bird Era.
Dallas already received a deeper breakdown earlier in Part One when discussing their history with the ninth pick, but the context surrounding this selection feels completely different. The Mavericks are no longer searching for a franchise centerpiece after the arrival of Cooper Flagg. Instead, they’re looking to continue building depth and functionality around a roster that already features Flagg, Kyrie Irving, Dereck Lively II, and likely another high-level addition earlier in the first round.
That matters because the back end of this draft could look very different after the early entrant withdrawal deadline. Several players currently projected in this range may ultimately decide to return to school, which could leave Dallas navigating a thinner board by the time pick 30 arrives.
Fortunately for the Mavericks, this feels like an ideal organizational situation for role players and specialists.
Alex Karaban would make a lot of sense because of his positional size, floor spacing, and defensive functionality. Richie Saunders offers many of the same appealing traits while bringing a little more off-the-dribble ability offensively. Ryan Conwell could fit nicely as a tough, floor-spacing guard capable of complementing Dallas’ existing creators.
Trevon Brazile also feels like a very plausible swing at this point in the draft. His weakside rim protection, floor-spacing potential, and elite athleticism could become especially valuable on a roster already built around higher-usage stars.
The dream scenario for Dallas may involve someone like Christian Anderson remaining in the class and ultimately sliding to this spot. Anderson has a real case as one of the best pure shooting prospects in the draft, while also bringing impressive passing ability.
The important thing for Dallas is that they no longer need to force upside swings out of desperation. The Mavericks are drafting from a position where role fit, lineup compatibility, and complementary skillsets matter far more than star hunting.
At this stage of the first round, hitting a single is perfectly fine.
SHOULD YOU BE WORRIED?: C’mon…
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