Simas Lukosius Can Play | The Prospect Overview
Simas Lukosius can play. Maxwell applies lessons learned from Jaylen Wells and Jamison Battle to the Cincinnati sharpshooter, who is a 2025 NBA Draft prospect to watch. PLUS: Quick Hits!
I think about basketball a lot. Specifically, I think about the NBA Draft. I’d say my greatest strength as an evaluator is my insecurity. Simply put, I don’t like being wrong about things. However, I’m not the type to bury my head in the sand and insist I’m not wrong. The only way to be wrong less often in the future is to get better. So, when I’m thinking about the NBA Draft, I’m usually thinking about the things I got wrong, and how I can avoid being wrong in similar ways in the future. The most helpful thing for me has been looking at what has worked historically, what is working for players out of the gate, and what trends are emerging in the NBA.
Most prospects don’t evolve into stars. When I’m making a board of 100 guys, for most players, I’m seeking a role player outcome. That begs the question: what does an NBA role player look like? Specifically, I’m looking for a role player on a good NBA team. I did similar research on this topic a year ago but updated it a bit today. Because the subject of today’s article is a forward, I used the following criteria:
-Players on the top eight teams in each conference
-Must play at least 12 MPG and have appeared in over 10 games
-Big men were excluded
On the offensive end of the ball, two things stood out. These role-playing non-bigs shoot a combined 7.95 threes per 100 possessions and connect on 36% of those attempts. Just about two-thirds of those players had a three-point attempt rate above 50%, meaning that a majority of their field goals are threes. Additionally, this group had a 2.1-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio. In a group of 91 players, only Trendon Watford, Jaden Hardy, and Derrick Jones Jr. had an A:TO ratio below 1.0. Simply put, the good role players on good teams are typically guys who derive their offensive value primarily from shooting a high volume of threes at an efficient clip and moving the ball effectively.
I knew this to be true a year ago. Still, I whiffed on Jaylen Wells, ranking him 51st on my final board. This is particularly humiliating because I interviewed Jaylen Wells, and I liked him a lot as a person. Additionally, I almost always buy into late growth spurt guys, and Wells was one. Plus, he shot 41.7% from three on high volume with a near 2-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio. Still, he didn’t measure particularly well. I thought his team defense was poor, I didn’t like how rarely he got to the rim, and I didn’t really buy him as a real-deal movement shooter. To Wells’s credit, he’s been significantly better defensively in Memphis. But ultimately, I think the biggest reason why I missed was that I overcomplicated what would be asked of him at the NBA level. Per Synergy, 44.2% of Wells’s possessions this year have been spot-ups. His role doesn’t require him to generate rim pressure or run around all over the place. His role is to catch and shoot or move the ball intelligently, which he does. Add in his improved defense, and even if he’s not a high ceiling proposition, he’s probably a guy who is going to be in the league for a very long time.
While he hasn’t made as big of a splash as Wells, Jamison Battle is another miss that I think about quite a bit. I ended up slotting Battle in my E10 tier rather than my two-way contract tier. Similar to Wells, Battle posted poor defensive playmaking metrics but was older and also less reliable of a playmaker. But at 6’7” with a 6’9” wingspan and 218 pounds, he wasn’t going to be easy to boss around or exploit. Additionally, Battle was a proven sniper who hit 43.3% of his threes on 11.4 attempts per 100 possessions during his pre-draft campaign. Since joining the Raptors on a two-way contract, Battle has carved out a real deal role, earning 13.5 MPG. He’s sinking 42.5% of his threes and he has a positive BPM. I thought this was a guy who teams should merely kick the tires on, but now he’s on path to earn a standard contract. I’d lost myself in the details, when in reality, 41.1% of his possessions are spot-ups, per Synergy.
This isn’t to say micro-skills or the many intricacies of basketball don’t matter. They do, especially when it comes to extrapolating outcomes in bigger roles, and/or how players will be able to perform in a playoff setting. At a certain point on a draft board, though, you’re likely reaching for guys who can play in an NBA game and not get demolished. While it may not be the sexiest outcome to chase, there is some value to getting a guy who can hang on the floor out of the gate. It should be the entirety of one’s draft philosophy, but again, at a certain point, it makes more sense to chase that than, “well, if Player B does X, Y, and Z, then maybe he’s a rotation player three years from now.” I think that’s especially true in the tight financial market created by the current collective bargaining agreement. Getting a guy like Jamison Battle, who can competently play in NBA games, on a two-way contract, is good value. As a result, I’ve been thinking about guys on the margins who I think could return similar value. One guy who I think can play is Simas Lukosius, a 6’8”, 225-pound forward out of Cincinnati.
Shooting
Shooting is, without a doubt, the most valuable skill in Lukosius’s arsenal. This year, he’s been electric from deep, having converted 48.3% of his triples while launching 14.1 attempts per 100 possessions. That is an elite pairing of volume and efficiency. While he’ll likely be met with some form of regression, his overall track record is still strong, as he’s hit 37.5% of his college threes on 10.8 attempts per 100 possessions. If a team wants him to spot up and knock down threes, he’ll be their huckleberry. But if he goes to a team that runs a more complex, off-ball movement-oriented offense, he could excel.
Lukosius’s three-point percentage by attempt type over the past two seasons, per Synergy:
60.9% off screens, 46 attempts
39.6% on spot ups, 111 attempts
38.8% in transition, 36 attempts
38.2% off handoffs, 34 attempts
Despite being a bigger, bulkier dude, Lukosius is great coming off screens. His “run around” speed is better than one might expect, given his frame. He does a good job of tucking himself around screens to maximize his openings while making closeouts a difficult task. His balance is great, allowing him to decelerate while keeping a sturdy base before getting his shot up quickly when coming off movement. When his man does stick with him off an action, Lukosius does a great job of leveraging him pump fake to them off their feet, and his side-step, one dribble pull-up three has been deadly this year. Given his size, it’s also to see him getting open after acting as a screener for others in the NBA. While he can thrive as a simple, spot-up player, it’s his dynamism as a shooter that makes him all the more intriguing.
Passing
The other element of Lukosius’s game that pops is his decision-making. A lot of knockdown shooters can thrive by being “guys who don’t screw stuff up” as playmakers. And Lukosius definitely avoids screwing stuff up, as evident by his measly 11.1 TOV%. He’s a trustworthy decision-maker who keeps the ball moving and rarely slows the flow of the offense. He has the classic “sharpshooter two-man game at the top of the key” thing down pat. His understanding of his own gravity enables him to quickly reward open teammates if he draws two on the ball coming off a screen. He does a great job of finding the roller in pick-and-roll settings. Lukosius has also showcased impressive pass placement and the ability to make more intermediate, less predictable reads. His ability to operate with a fluid process and take what the defense gives him has enabled him to post 3.4 APG (21.3 AST%) to only 1.4 TOV (11.1 TOV%). This bodes well for him, as good ball control metrics have been a tenant among those who have stuck in the NBA primarily off the strength of their shooting.
The “Chased Off the Line” Question
Now, when we talk about higher-end outcomes, how well Lukosius can function when chased off the line is something we need to look into. Throughout his college career, Lukosius hasn’t put a ton of pressure on the rim—which I’m totally fine with, given the nature of his game. He’s most valuable behind the arc, and the best use of him isn’t having him relentlessly attack the basket. Plus, it’s not like he never gets there. His driving and handle are up to snuff, which helps him get to his spots when he does try to go downhill. His rim attempt numbers are normal for a shooting-oriented prospect. His results when he gets to the basket are solid. Throughout his four college seasons, he’s converted 59.0% of his halfcourt rim attempts, per Synergy, which is a middle-of-the-pack number for an NBA forward prospect.
There are pros and cons to Lukosius’ driving. On the plus side, his strength enables him to hold his line well when he attacks the basket. Plus, he has good body control and coordination, allowing him to keep his touch when met with physicality at the cup. Conversely, Lukosius has a subpar first step and is very ground-bound by NBA standards. Through his four college seasons, he’s only registered 1 dunk, which is an abnormality for a prospect his size. The below-the-rim nature of his finishing gives him little time to contort or adjust to rim protectors when he doesn’t get a clean look. This does create some concern when it comes to extrapolating out how his attacking will scale to the next level. With that being said, both his rim pressure and rim finishing metrics grade out well enough for his archetype that I wouldn’t lose sleep over it. I feel okay enough about him here that I certainly wouldn’t risk throwing the baby out with the bathwater.
Defense
Let’s address the elephant in the room. From a playmaking standpoint, the numbers aren’t great. His career 1.4 STL% and 0.4 BLK% are far from ideal. His lack of lift limits him as a rim helper and shot blocker. He doesn’t have the stop-start burst to jump into passing lanes. If he gets shaken at the point of attack, he doesn’t have the tools to recover. With all that being said, I actually thought the tape was pretty encouraging, given his archetype.
Remember, he’s a big dude—6’8”, 225. That enables him to hold up well against bigs on the interior. It also helps on the perimeter, where he has a good stance, stays light on his feet, and works to slide with his man. As a result, he tends to stay in front pretty well. He’s guarded nine isolation possessions this season but only surrendered a total of two points on them, per Synergy. He’s not quite the hunting target one might expect. Off the ball, he’s really engaged. He’s a consistent pointer/communicator and he’s always on his toes ready to move. While I certainly wish he had better athletic tools, his attentiveness and effort allow him to maximize what he’s got. I certainly wouldn’t expect him to make an All-Defense team or anything, but given the type of value he may provide offensively, I think he’s in a position where the offensive good could outweigh any defensive shortcomings.
Projection
When it comes to Simas Lukosius, I’m hoping to learn from past mistakes. Still, I want to be careful not to overcorrect. For every Jamison Battle, there’s a Blake Hinson, who was released from his two-way contract with the Lakers before the season started. For every Jaylen Wells, there’s a Cam Christie, who currently has a sub-50 TS% in the G League right now. A “one size fits all” approach to scouting is not a recipe for success. Things like team fit, roster construction, and opportunity matter, as do the other intricacies of a player’s game beyond their bread-and-butter.
Ultimately, when I look at Simas Lukosius, I see a guy who can play. He’s a lights-out shooter who can provide value as both a floor spacer and dynamic mover. Additionally, he’s a sharp decision-maker who can operate selflessly and elevate the games of those around him. While he’s not the most athletic prospect, his strong, big frame has enabled him to finish respectably. I also believe he’s a better defender than the numbers indicate. If nothing else, I believe he could be able to get to a level where he’s not a net negative, given his shortcomings on that end. As a result, Lukosius is a player I’d be eyeing as a priority two-way target come June. At worst, he should be on an E-10 come June. If he continues to develop as a finisher, playmaker, and defender, there’s a path for him to climb into guaranteed contract territory. Lukosius may be on the margins now, but I’m not sure how long that will last.
Quick Hits
-Returning prospects can often go under-covered, as they’re seen as “boring” or “lower ceiling.” But I want to give some kudos to Alex Karaban. He just keeps getting better. The 6’8” redshirt junior is at 42.4% from deep on 11.8 threes per 100 possessions. He’s also further bolstered his playmaking resume, making more impressive passes while driving and improving upon his assist-to-turnover mark (1.9 A:TO to 2.8 A:TO). Best of all, though, is his defense. His block rate is sky-high at the moment (6.0 BLK%), in part due to his timing and ability to use his length around the basket. However, it’s his movement that has stuck out to me most. He appears more fleet of foot and is changing directions more seamlessly. I get that he’s unlikely to be an All-Star, but Karaban’s size, versatility, and well-roundedness are tailor-made for a lengthy, valuable NBA career.
-I love what I’ve seen from Illinois big man Tomislav Ivisic on offense. The 7’1” big man has long been heralded for his ability to stretch the floor, and that’s carried over to the college game. He’s draining 34.8% of his threes on 9.1 triples per 100 possessions so far this year. That percentage is really good for a young big man, but the volume is downright outrageous. I’ve also been impressed by his touch and creativity as a passer. The man can thread needles with flair. Defensively, his size will go a long way. Still, his rim protection has been frustrating, to say the least. He has a meager 3.7 BLK% and often has his hands down at his waist when he should be contesting shots above the rim. His offensive skill set at his size will keep him in the Top 60 mix all year, but if defensive improvements come along, that should catapult him into the first round.
-How about No Stone Unturned prospect Jacksen Moni?! North Dakota State’s 6’10” graduate is flirting with 50/40/90 shooting splits, currently sitting at 50.8/44.8/82.8. He also led the Bison to an upset win over Butler this past week, posting 25 points, seven rebounds, three assists, two blocks, and a steal. Moni was crucial in crunch time, hitting two threes and a mid-range J on offense while locking down Jahmyl Telfort for three straight possessions defensively to close the game. Moni’s lack of speed and strength remain an issue, but his combination of size and skill shouldn’t go overlooked. He’s deserving of a Portsmouth Invitational Tournament invite if nothing else.
-I covered Purdue’s Braden Smith during my Spreadsheet Sleepers series last season. Basically, I argued that the 6’0” guard is more of a legitimate prospect than he’d been given credit for being, and that I think he’ll get an NBA cup of coffee at some point. His play this year has strengthened that conviction. Smith’s offensive game starts with his shooting. He’s a career 41.1% three-point shooter who pulls the trigger the second he’s given an inch of space. He also has a wicked pump fake, which he can use to get downhill. When he attacks the basket, he’s a slick driver who always keeps his eyes up, recognizes help quickly, and can wire passes through tight windows. His 8.5 APG to only 2.7 TOV demonstrates his passing wizardry. And while he’s a subpar athlete by NBA standards, his timing and competitiveness allow him to rebound (15.2 DRB%) and rack up steals (3.4 STL%) at a great clip. Don’t write him off.
-While Incarnate Word couldn’t get the better of Duke, their matchup gave me a chance to get eyes on Jayden Williams. The 6’9” freshman is a fantastic defender. He has great instincts around the rim and he’s fast off the floor. He’s also reported to have a 7’5” wingspan. He’s agile laterally and can disrupt plays with his length. In totality, these tools and traits have propelled him to a 4.5 STL% and 13.2 BLK%. Williams is tough on the glass, too (20.1 ORB%, 21.6 DRB%). Right now, he’s primarily a play finisher on offense, but he’s a big-time leaper who can throw down some big dunks. If he expands his range and/or develops as a passer in the coming years, he could evolve into a can’t-miss guy.
-Manhattan’s Will Sydnor caught my eye as a long-term prospect this past week. Shoutout to Sam Federman of Mid-Major Madness for making sure I dug into his tape. The 6’8” freshman is stuffing the stat sheet. He’s a decisive shooter with a quick release, currently sitting at 39% from deep while taking 4.6 triples per contest. He’s also comfortable dribbling and has the bounce to finish above the rim. Defensively, he can use his length to smother opponents, nab steals, or turn opponents away at the rim (2.2 STL%, 3.7 BLK%). He’s still really thin, he’s not particularly quick, and he needs to see the floor better. But the picture stuff is there, and I’m excited to see how he develops in the coming years.
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