Sion James and the Scalability Question | The Prospect Overview
Duke prospect Sion James is an appealing proposition in the 2025 NBA Draft. He's strong, smart, and savvy, but scalability remains a question. PLUS: Quick Hits!
Sion James has been on my radar for a long time. The 6’6” Duke graduate first started to make an impression on me during his sophomore year at Tulane. I’d initially gone into the tape because of his diverse and productive statistical profile, because while James wasn’t overwhelmingly dominant in any one area, he was stuffing the stat sheet across the board in a way you don’t come by too often. When I put on the game tape, I was even further intrigued by his physical profile. At 220 pounds, he already had an NBA-ready frame. And he wasn’t one of those hulking, immobile mid-major guys, either. The dude could slide his feet and fly off the floor. I made the decision to cover James during my No Stone Unturned series that offseason, and he’s been on my radar ever since.
After two more productive seasons at Tulane, James moved on to Duke for his graduate campaign. There, he’s been a key part of their successful season and is consistently finding himself on draft boards as a result. Let’s get into what makes James’ game so appealing, what challenges he might face at the NBA level, and why there’s a reason to believe he could be a long-term pro.
Shooting
When evaluating a non-big, it’s important to ask: “can this guy shoot?” For a long time, Sion James’ answer was “no”. Through his first three seasons, James shot only 31.7% from deep on 3.2 attempts per 100 possessions. That put him well behind the curve for a wing in terms of both efficiency and volume—to be blunt, it looked like an NBA dealbreaker.
However, James turned things around. In the two seasons since then, he’s made 39.5% of his threes on 5.2 attempts per 100 possessions. While I’d still like to see more volume out of James, the fact that he became both more willing and accurate in a significant way considerably moves the needle. Additionally, James’ mechanics have come along. They had previously been more knock-kneed, and he shot with a lower release point. He’d take the ball up to the top of his head and almost fling his arms more outward than upward. Now, he gets the ball out quicker with a more traditional shooting motion.
The jumper will remain a swing skill, but it’s hard not to be pleased with the improvements James has already shown the ability to make so far.
Attacking
Sion James is a tremendous downhill attacker. Over the course of his college career, he’s made 58.5% of his halfcourt rim attempts, which is impressive given that he’s a guy who gets to the rim quite often.
It starts with his excellent first step. James is a decisive player, and when he decides he’s going to attack off the catch, he gets into the paint fast. When players try to get in his way, it doesn’t go well for them. His bend and power allow him to get low and drive through almost anybody. He routinely dislodges larger opponents and holds his line through contact.
Additionally, James has a nice handle, allowing him to counter and win with finesse when necessary. When he gets to the basket, he has the vertical pop to finish above the rim. James has no problem getting the job done even when he clashes with another body inside. One thing I’d like to see him refine is his gather and takeoff footwork, as he seems to prefer going off two feet. That can slow him down at times and give defenses time to recover. It may only be fractions of a second, but in the NBA, every moment matters.
James has an intriguing attacking arsenal. His speed, power, and skill enable him to pressure the rim and finish at a high level, particularly when attacking from the second side of the floor.
Passing
Another piece of the puzzle is that James is a smart, selfless operator. He’s routinely posted strong assist-to-turnover marks throughout his career. This year, he had a 18.9 AST%, which ranked second among Duke’s everyday players.
His eyes are always up. When James gets deep into the paint, he can find big men with easy drop-off passes or spray it out to an open shooter. He can make simple and correct decisions out of ball screens or throw long, accurate lobs from the perimeter. James also thrives in early offense settings. If defenses don’t get back in time, and every defender hasn’t accounted for who they’re guarding, James will take notice and punish them for their actions. He’s fluid in his process, consistently reacting to what opponents give him rather than premeditating his actions.
This element of his game is desirable from an NBA perspective. It’s tough to find rotation players who can’t be trusted to make good decisions with the ball. James’ ability to play within the flow of the offense, read the floor, and exploit openings are all fantastic role-playing traits.
Defense
As versatile as Sion James is offensively, he might be even more versatile on defense. His career event-creation stats (2.5 STL%, 1.8 BLK%) are solid. James has fast hands, enabling him to tip and even intercept passes quickly after they’re thrown. His understanding of the game goes a long way rotationally, as he’s always in tune and aware of where he needs to go. His balance stands out, as he can close out hard and recover seamlessly.
James also seems to have a good eye for the scouting report, as he’ll rarely sell out on an undeserving player or fail to contest against a real-deal marksman. I also like him as a rim helper more than most guards his size. He does a great job of getting up at the rim and staying vertical when opponents drive into his body. He’s able to cover a variety of opponents at the point of attack thanks to his frame, lateral agility, and sublime technique. James moves his feet quickly, stays square to his man, and uses his chest well to keep opponents at bay. Few players are able to shake him or overpower him.
Depending on how he measures, James could be one of the more reliable one-through-three defenders at the next level. His combination of power, feel, and fundamentals should allow him to thrive defensively as a pro.
The Scalability Question
This was Sion James’ fifth college season, and he’ll turn 23 years old during his first NBA season. Typically, more is asked of older prospects. It’s understandable for a 19-year-old to have some lackluster areas of production or areas in need of more serious development. But when that player finishes a four-year rookie contract, they’ll be close to the age Sion James is now. That matters. It matters in this case in particular, because James has never been “the man”. In some ways, that may seem desirable. He knows how to play a role, and he won’t bite off more than he can chew. But the data generally say otherwise.
If you listen to Draft Sickos, you’ve heard me mention this Boris Beric article approximately 4,682 times by now. You should read the entire thing, as it’s personally influenced my draft philosophy as much as any piece of media I’ve ever consumed. This excerpt in particular is the one that sticks out, as it pertains to James:
Common success stories on Two-Way deals have been perimeter players that shouldered a heavy burden, usage load offensively for their pre-NBA teams. The kinds of guys who don’t necessarily traditionally fit a box athletically yet their production and feel for the game allow them to meaningfully stick in the NBA. The Alex Caruso, Austin Reaves and Lu Dort’s of the world.
One of my biggest philosophy shifts in recent years has been that I value players that dominated college while doing everything offensively, specifically as an upperclassman. Players don’t typically go from a 3&D wing in college to the same role in the NBA. Chaundee Brown is a great example of this.
Austin Reaves had a 27% assist rate on 27% usage on an NCAA Tournament team that wasn’t particularly good besides him. Reaves has shaped my evaluation a lot since I whiffed on him badly. I pigeonholed him as a specialist. Aesthetic bias played a role here as well. But I also didn’t value the fact that he was OVERQUALIFIED pre-NBA. That’s a common them with the players that have had success on Two-Way deals.
Later, he notes:
Out of 37 Two-Way deal players to have played over 100 total NBA playoff minutes, only Jordan Bell, Alfonzo McKinnie, Luke Kornet, Gary Clark, and Duncan Robinson are non-point guards to have had usage rates below 23% in their final pre-NBA season. Usage rates above 23% for wings aren’t the be-all and end-all, but they’re clearly a useful indicator to keep track of.
This year, Sion James had a usage rate of 16.2%. His career usage rate was 14.9%. I can’t sit here and make the argument that James is an overqualified rookie who can scale back into a smaller role. Instead, he’ll need to keep doing what he’s been doing against college kids against the absolute best players in the world. That’s a tougher ask than people realize. There are a lot more NBA success stories for players like Quentin Grimes, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and Dillon Brooks than for guys like Joel Ayayi, Joe Wieskamp, and Dalen Terry. The “college role player to NBA role player” path is more of a graveyard than a pipeline.
The Reason to Believe
Ask yourself what traits matter when it comes to NBA role players. Physically, you’d want a guy who is up to the task. Offensively, the ability to shoot matters. Next, it’s quality decision-making and ball movement. After that, the ability to attack closeouts and impact the game on the go. Defensively, you’re probably looking for a high-level understanding of the game and the ability to guard multiple positions.
Sion James is 6’6” and 220 pounds. He shot 41.3% from three this year. He has a 2.5 assist-to-turnover ratio. He’s able to get downhill and finish above the rim. On defense, his frame, length, and intellect enable him to impact the game in a variety of ways, whether he’s on the ball or away from it. The role player you want is a guy who does the things that Sion James does. His low volume from three-point range and suboptimal usage rates are certainly cause for concern. But as I always say, at a certain point in the draft, you have to bet on some sort of outlier result. When the second round rolls around, you could bet on a lot worse than a strong, savvy, skilled player like Sion James.
Quick Hits
-It’s hard to express the extent to which Walter Clayton Jr. has proven himself as That Dude. He’s excelled as a takeover scorer this year, and what makes him so enticing with regards to the NBA is how efficient he’s remained on an exceedingly difficult shot diet. When Clayton gets to slide back into a more complementary role, it’s reasonable to think the game will get easier for him. While I wish he had a better read of the floor, his stout frame and defensive playmaking are critical boxes for a smaller guard to check. I’ve been on WCJ island since the Iona days, so it’s been a joy to watch his continued progression over the years.
-Look, I’m going to be real. I watched way more of The Crown than any man should. Part of what brought me in was More Stones Unturned prospect Brice Williams, a 6’7” do-it-all wing from Nebraska who led the Huskers to the title. After finding success playing off of other guys throughout his college career, Williams has shouldered a 29.0 USG% exceptionally well this year. He’s got a funky, old-school creation bag for himself and others. He’s long been great as a movement shooter, and his intellect allows him to thrive as a defensive playmaker. Where things get dicey are his athletic profile, as he’s slow-footed and can struggle defensively from a movement perspective. Still, his well-rounded production, size, and feel should get him plenty of looks throughout the pre-draft process.
-I’ve developed a fondness for UCF’s Darius Johnson. The senior guard is undersized at 6’1”, but his stocky build, power, and toughness go a long way. He has great offensive footwork to generate space for himself in every direction. Johnson drilled 44.8% of his catch-and-shoot threes this year, so there’s some off-ball value here, too. Defensively, he gets up on the ball and makes opponents play through him. His fast hands have helped him accrue a career 3.7 STL%. His passing can be frustrating, and he’s more of a basic playmaker than you’d like to see for a player with his experience. Still, there are some important translatable traits here. He should be in the Portsmouth mix.
-UCF also has an interesting long-term prospect in Moustapha Thiam. The 7’2” big man blocks everything (9.2 BLK%) and does a great job of keeping opponents away from the rim. His length and size allow him to swallow up drivers at the basket. Plus, he can put it on the deck and he’s a willing shooter (4.5 threes per 100 possessions). Thiam still has poor hands, consistently bobbling passes and rebounds, so he’s a project at this stage. But he’s one worth monitoring.
-An extra deep cut who caught my eye is Oregon State sophomore Liutauras Lelevicius. The 6’7”, 217-pound Lithuanian native thrived for a depleted Beavers squad, dropping 20 points against UCF. He has a sweet shooting stroke and moves into his jumper really well (37.9% from deep on 6.6 threes per 100 possessions). He also has some real juice downhill, with a nice first step and some slick movement patterns. The issues arise on defense. At times, he can use his length well, but his overall ground coverage tends to be poor. Lelevicius didn’t post eye-popping counting numbers this year, but I could see him thriving in the right context.