So You Think You Can Be An NBA Role Player: Forward Edition
Our own Nathan Grubel examines NBA forward examples from pre-draft through their current situations to better determine what types of draft prospects succeed as role players in the league.
This phrase gets thrown around quite a bit in the NBA scouting community:
“Well, he might not have the framework of a star, BUT he could come off the bench for an NBA team as a role player.”
That has made me wonder for quite some time: What do fans and observers consider a “role player” in the NBA?
There are several ways to answer that question, but I’ve been taught by those who have spent their careers in basketball that role players are those who fill the gaps and make the lives of stars easier.
Now, those players can come in all shapes and sizes, even in terms of minutes within a rotation. There are role players who start, come off the bench, etc.
For this exercise, it was important to examine current role players in the NBA making impacts for playoff teams. Where did those players come from? What did they accomplish before making it into the NBA? How involved were they in their pre-NBA team’s success?
When evaluating players for the NBA, I’ve come to the conclusion that success, reps, and experience doing more on the court all matter. Rarely do players scale their games UP in the NBA as opposed to the other way around.
Playing in the league is all about problem-solving at a high level. Without experience solving those problems in real time at volume, how are players expected to translate up in competition? When the ball gets swung to Player X, are they able to make the right decision at the drop of a hat? Are they comfortable handling the ball? Do they know how to utilize ball screens? Can they create in isolation?
Those who are considered “role players” in the league today have been able to mold their games and fill specific gaps within a team’s offensive and defensive structures. But what if I were to tell you they accomplished much more than that before they set foot in the NBA?
Over the next few weeks, I’m going to examine player examples from each positional category I use when evaluating prospects: Guards, wings, forwards, and centers.
The goal is to establish some high-level criteria I utilize when grading players out as a whole by position, then highlighting some retrospective research on some current NBA examples while also showcasing their current roles on their respective teams. Finally, I will try and tie some common threads together between every example, regardless of player archetype, and provide some prospects in the 2025 NBA Draft that project well when stacking their current resumes up against selected examples.
Let’s tackle the forward position this time around!
Evaluation Outline: Forwards
Some positional characteristics/responsibilities I evaluate in forward prospects are as follows:
Operates from the corners, elbows, low post, and dunker spot to both provide spacing for ball handlers as well as finish at a high level on broken or well-executed plays
Acts as the primary “low man” defender to help defend certain ball screen actions as well as act as the next line of defense in support of cutters
Has enough quickness and length to properly close out on and contest perimeter shooters
Can act as a secondary hub on offense in setting screens, operating handoffs, and operating as the screener in high or side PnR actions both as a diver and pop threat
SEPARATOR: Can defend perimeter positions depending on switching scheme deployed
SEPARATOR: Can defend and box out centers in the post for additional rebounding opportunities
SEPARATOR: Can shoot from the wings and top of the floor both on catch-and-shoot looks and even off movement
SEPARATOR: Can grab rebounds, push the ball in transition, and either finish on the break or set up another player filling the lane
Now, not every player checks every single one of these boxes. The unique ones that do are the NBA’s best of the best. Rarely do we find prospects in EVERY class who even sniff the upper tier of the league.
But it is important to share how I try and evaluate players by position and what I’m looking for to provide insight into what I look for on the court.
Let’s dig into some NBA examples of forward role players that have made significant impacts for their respective teams. As I stated above, I wanted to highlight players who were part of play-in and/or playoff teams this season to both provide relevant and timely commentary, as well as to provide case studies of who’s making rotations of some of the best teams in the league.
Obi Toppin, Indiana Pacers: 6’9”, 220 pounds
Pre-Draft College: Dayton
Drafted: 8th Overall in 2020 NBA Draft
Player Archetype: Scoring Forward
Pre-Draft Season Stats:
17.1 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 2.0 APG, 1.0 SPG, 1.2 BPG, 2.2 TOV, .633/.390/.700 Shooting Splits
23.2 FGA Per 100, 4.9 3PA Per 100, 8.5 FTA Per 100
981 MP, 68.0 TS%, 14.5 REB%, 14.5 AST%, 13.0 TOV%, 1.8 STL%, 4.1 BLK%, 28.1 USG%, 12.8 BPM
99th Percentile in Total Offense, 38th in Total Defense
Current NBA Role: Sixth Man Stretch Forward
Current NBA Stats:
10.5 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 1.6 APG, 0.6 SPG, 0.4 BPG, 0.9 TOV, .529/.365/.781 Shooting Splits
18.6 FGA Per 100, 9.4 3PA Per 100, 3.5 FTA Per 100
1,545 MP, 64.2 TS%, 11.5 REB%, 11.9 AST%, 9.5 TOV%, 1.4 STL%, 1.6 BLK%, 20.1 USG%, 1.7 BPM
91st Percentile in Total Offense, 71st in Total Defense
Obi Toppin was born in Brooklyn, NY, and he attended several high schools before college. He played his senior season at Ossining High School, where he posted a dominant stat line of 20.6 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 3.0 APG, and 3.0 SPG. Toppin led his varsity squad to its first conference title in 10 seasons.
After his successful senior campaign at Ossining, Toppin spent a post-graduate year at Mount Zion Prep in Baltimore, MD, and accepted a scholarship offer from Dayton University to join the Flyers.
Toppin redshirted his true freshman season due to being academically ineligible, but was cleared to play and became the Atlantic 10 Rookie of the Year the following season. He also earned honors on the All-Atlantic 10 Second Team. Toppin did declare for the 2019 NBA Draft, but opted to come back to school in order to improve his draft stock.
Sure enough, Toppin did just that after one of the best individual college basketball seasons in recent memory. Before COVID shut down March Madness, Toppin was honored as the 2020 National Player of the Year, not to mention he was a 1st Team All-American and 1st Team All-Atlantic 10 performer. Dayton would’ve had a chance to contend for a national championship in large part because of Toppin’s electric scoring profile as a high-flying forward.
Toppin was drafted eighth overall by the New York Knicks in the 2020 NBA Draft, where he spent a few seasons as a bench option. Toppin was traded to the Indiana Pacers in 2023 and has since signed an extension off of his rookie deal as the team’s primary forward off the bench.
Toppin’s appeal coming out of college was tied to his athletic profile and ability to stretch the floor as a 6’9” forward. Toppin demonstrated to roll and finish in the halfcourt, knock down jumpers from the corners, run the floor in transition, and even found ways to take mismatches off the bounce and get to the rim unassisted. His blend of tools and scoring touch formed the foundation of his game as an offensive-oriented frontcourt player in the league.
There were some real concerns about how Toppin would hold up defensively at the next level. He didn’t have the strength to play against other bigs on the interior, nor was he fully engaged defending in space and away from the ball on the wings. A “tweener” in a negative way, defensively, teams rightly had questions about how his game would hold up if he were unreliable on one side of the ball.
Since he’s been in the NBA, especially with the Pacers, Toppin has improved to the point where he’s a lot closer to a positive defender than a negative one. He’s gotten better at communicating and calling out rotations, has filled out his frame to better hang with opposing bigs, and gives effort when switched onto perimeter ball handlers in screen situations. He’s not the perfect defender by any means, but his effort and focus have come a long way.
And because he’s been able to stay on the floor defensively, he’s provided the exact type of value Indiana was looking for offensively when the trade was made. The Pacers thrive in a chaotic nature, and Toppin’s transition game is a hand-in-glove fit around Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam. Toppin can leak out to the corners for transition threes, or fill the lane and hammer it home off a lob. He can even grab a defensive board and start the break by himself.
Toppin is a great example of a player who didn’t let his weaknesses define his game at any level. He stayed true to himself, and he has found ways to make improvements year over year in order to bring value. He’s been a reliable shooter his entire career, and his ability to finish above the rim has ensured his value as a scorer no matter the lineup context. Toppin’s experience as a higher volume option helped him to scale down and find the spots where he was best. He’s a valuable role player for any team, but Toppin was given his best FIT in Indiana.
Dorian Finney-Smith, Los Angeles Lakers: 6’7”, 218 pounds
Pre-Draft College: Florida
Drafted: UDFA in 2016 NBA Draft
Player Archetype: Defense-First Forward
Pre-Draft Season Stats:
14.7 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 2.1 APG, 0.9 SPG, 0.8 BPG, 1.9 TOV, .437/.368/.730 Shooting Splits
19.3 FGA Per 100, 9.6 3PA Per 100, 8.2 FTA Per 100
1,145 MP, 57.0 TS%, 13.5 REB%, 13.0 AST%, 12.7 TOV%, 1.6 STL%, 2.6 BLK%, 22.4 USG%, 9.5 BPM
79th Percentile in Total Offense, 76th in Total Defense
Current NBA Role: Starting Stretch Forward
Current NBA Stats:
8.7 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 1.4 APG, 0.9 SPG, 0.4 BPG, 0.9 TOV, .448/.411/.667 Shooting Splits
11.8 FGA Per 100, 8.5 3PA Per 100, 1.2 FTA Per 100
1,818 MP, 60.4 TS%, 7.7 REB%, 6.9 AST%, 11.0 TOV%, 1.6 STL%, 1.2 BLK%, 12.3 USG%, -1 BPM
68th Percentile in Total Offense, 83rd in Total Defense
Dorian Finney-Smith attended I.C. Norcom High School in Portsmouth, VA. He led his school to back-to-back Group AAA championships, along with Eastern Region and district titles. Finney-Smith was also a two-time VHSL Class AAA Player of the Year and 1st Team All-State, All-Region, and All-District award winner.
Finney-Smith committed to Virginia Tech for the 2011-12 season after high school. He started in 30 games as a freshman and provided play finishing and rebounding at the forward spot. In his lone season as a Hokie, Finney-Smith shot 37% from three-point range in addition to the value he provided inside the arc, both on offense and defense.
After his successful freshman campaign, Finney-Smith transferred to Florida, where his production steadily increased year over year in terms of efficiency. He was the SEC Sixth Man of the Year as a sophomore and was the team’s leading rebounder. After his junior season, Finney-Smith was awarded a spot on the All-SEC Second Team, and again was Florida’s leading rebounder. Finney-Smith also led the team in scoring and three-point percentage.
Finney-Smith was a back-to-back Second Team All-SEC honoree as a senior and led the team in scoring for a second straight season. Despite the numerous accolades and accomplishments in terms of games won between high school and college, Finney-Smith went undrafted in the 2016 NBA Draft. Teams at the time were concerned about his lack of ball-handling ability to create off the bounce, which was seen as a detriment to projecting his role as a wing in the league.
It didn’t take long for Finney-Smith to find a home in the NBA, however, as the Dallas Mavericks signed him before Summer League in 2016, where he did his part to earn a roster spot with the organization.
After a few successful seasons, Finney-Smith re-signed to his initial deal in 2019 and again in 2022. Finney-Smith was traded to the Brooklyn Nets in 2023 and, most recently, was dealt to the Los Angeles Lakers in 2024.
While Finney-Smith hasn’t quite taken steps forward in terms of breaking down defenders from the perimeter, his winning mentality has provided value for three separate teams now in the NBA. Finney-Smith is a no-nonsense defensive forward who is at his best when he can operate within a team construct, help, rotate, and make plays on the ball in passing lanes and on the glass. He’s not a true one-on-one stopper on the perimeter, but DFS can switch across several positions and even hold his own against some big men in the post.
What’s been particularly useful about his game is his ability to shoot from distance. Finney-Smith has been a true stretch forward in the NBA, which has made him a desired player amongst organizations since he’s been in the league. DFS was a career 36% shooter from distance in college, and has maintained his splits on respectable volume at the pro level.
Finney-Smith’s reliable combination of shooting, team defense, and rebounding has earned him a job in the league for as long as he can continue to perform up to a rotational-level standard. His leadership, experience winning, and consistency on both ends of the floor have carried enough value to question just how in the world he went undrafted in 2016. Finney-Smith is the exact type of role player who would light up draft models in today’s evaluation ecosystem, and remains an underrated player who can contribute to winning basketball games in a meaningful way.
Santi Aldama, Memphis Grizzlies: 6’11”, 215 pounds
Pre-Draft College: Loyola (MD)
Drafted: 30th Overall in 2021 NBA Draft
Player Archetype: Stretch Forward
Pre-Draft Season Stats:
21.2 PPG, 10.1 RPG, 2.3 APG, 1.0 SPG, 1.7 BPG, 3.2 TOV, .513/.368/.690 Shooting Splits
25.8 FGA Per 100, 8.5 3PA Per 100, 8.4 FTA Per 100
595 MP, 59.0 TS%, 16.9 REB%, 15.5 AST%, 15.3 TOV%, 1.7 STL%, 5.6 BLK%, 30.5 USG%, 7.7 BPM
85th Percentile in Total Offense, 49th in Total Defense
Current NBA Role: Bench Stretch Forward
Current NBA Stats:
12.5 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 2.9 APG, 0.8 SPG, 0.4 BPG, 1.1 TOV, .483/.368/.691 Shooting Splits
18.1 FGA Per 100, 9.1 3PA Per 100, 2.6 FTA Per 100
1,660 MP, 58.8 TS%, 13.3 REB%, 15.2 AST%, 9.3 TOV%, 1.5 STL%, 1.6 BLK%, 18.5 USG%, 3.2 BPM
79th Percentile in Total Offense, 82nd in Total Defense
Santi Aldama is the son of Santiago Aldama, a former Spanish professional player. Aldama grew up in Spain, and he started playing basketball at an early age due to the influence of growing up around the game.
Aldama played through the Canterbury Basketball Academy system up until 2018, when he played on loan for FC Barcelona’s U18 team in the Adidas Next Generation Tournament. Aldama was also the FIBA U18 Championship MVP in 2018.
Ultimately, Aldama committed to playing for Loyola Maryland in 2019, given his ties to the coaching staff through his father’s relationships. Aldama was rated as a four-star recruit coming stateside and had the attention of multiple high-major programs. Aldama committed to the mid-major level and was a prized international recruit for the Patriot League school.
Despite a shortened freshman season, Aldama was still honored with a selection to the Patriot League’s All-Rookie Team. As a sophomore, Aldama earned First Team All-Patriot League honors and became a buzzing draft prospect with real first-round opportunity.
Aldama was in fact taken in the first round of the 2021 NBA Draft, selected 30th overall by the Memphis Grizzlies. Through his young career, Aldama has played well in a role off the bench, and has even filled in at different points as the team’s starting power forward when Jaren Jackson Jr. has suffered injuries. Aldama is the lead forward off the bench in Memphis, and he has provided unique versatility given his offensive skill set.
Aldama has stated prior that he grew up watching and modeling his game after Pau Gasol, which is evident in how he approaches the game of basketball. Aldama’s ability to space the floor and shoot from three is reflective of where the game is now, but there are possessions on offense where Aldama gets to operate on the block and use his swift footwork to create finesse shots at the basket. Aldama can catch the ball in the low post, as well as operate from the elbows, turn, and take mismatches off the bounce on his way to the basket.
The most concerning part about Aldama’s game, outside of whether his jump shot would fully translate to the NBA, was his turnovers as a ball-handler. Aldama commanded a sky-high usage rate in college at Loyola and therefore had more opportunities to make mistakes off a live dribble. Even though Aldama had lapses where he lost his handle or made an errant pass, what he was able to do more often than not showcased real skill and feel at a high level. Numerous scouts enjoyed his approach to playing offense before the 2021 draft, and a lot of those positives have carried over in the NBA.
Aldama enjoyed his best season this past year, registering a BPM rating of 3.2, which is a large leap compared to where he was in prior years. He’s become a positive defender, particularly around the basket—both in terms of offering help-side challenges at the rim, and in walling off drivers off key rotations in space. There are situations where he’s not always the most switchable forward on the perimeter, but his feet are good enough to make things difficult for smaller drivers, given the fact that he’s nearly seven feet tall.
Connective forwards with shooting touch and enough value defensively are key pieces for NBA teams in terms of contending in the playoffs. There is nothing that replaces a combination of size, skill, and feel. Aldama has all of those things and is expected to be a sought-after role player for years to come in the league. He is up for restricted free agency this coming summer, so it will be interesting to see if the Grizzlies can hold on to the talented Spanish forward.
Derrick Jones Jr., LA Clippers: 6’6”, 190 pounds
Pre-Draft College: UNLV
Drafted: UDFA in 2016 NBA Draft
Player Archetype: Athletic Forward
Pre-Draft Season Stats:
11.5 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 0.8 APG, 0.9 SPG, 1.3 BPG, 1.2 TOV, .589/.205/.590 Shooting Splits
18.3 FGA Per 100, 3.3 3PA Per 100, 11.1 FTA Per 100
646 MP, 61.0 TS%, 11.0 REB%, 8.1 AST%, 11.3 TOV%, 2.3 STL%, 6.2 BLK%, 23.2 USG%, 4.3 BPM
94th Percentile in Total Offense, 96th in Total Defense
Current NBA Role: Bench Defense-First Forward
Current NBA Stats:
10.1 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 0.8 APG, 0.7 SPG, 0.7 BPG, 0.9 TOV, .526/.356/.703 Shooting Splits
15.5 FGA Per 100, 5.8 3PA Per 100, 3.1 FTA Per 100
1,873 MP, 60.9 TS%, 8.0 REB%, 4.6 AST%, 9.3 TOV%, 2.1 STL%, 1.7 BLK%, 16.5 USG%, 0.3 BPM
82nd Percentile in Total Offense, 88th in Total Defense
Derrick Jones Jr. was born in Chester, PA, and he played for Archbishop Carroll in high school. He was the Southeast PA Player of the Year, Delaware County Player of the Year, and PIAA Player of the Year in his senior season back in 2014-15. Jones was also an All-Catholic League First Team honoree.
Jones was a four-star recruit coming out of high school, and committed to playing at UNLV, where he was able to showcase his athletic talents as a defensive playmaker and high-level finisher.
Jones wasn’t long for college, however, as he declared for the 2016 NBA Draft after just one year in Las Vegas. Jones went undrafted and signed with the Sacramento Kings for Summer League. Jones joined the training camp roster for the Phoenix Suns and made the most of his opportunity as he earned a spot in the NBA’s Developmental League.
In 2017, Jones signed a two-way contract with the Miami Heat, which was eventually converted to a standard two-year deal. In 2020, Jones signed a two-year contract with the Portland Trail Blazers, after which he was involved in a three-way trade that sent him to the Chicago Bulls. After declining a player option on his contract in 2023, Jones signed with the Dallas Mavericks and was a key rotational piece in Dallas’s run to the NBA Finals during the 2023-24 season. He spent this past year with the LA Clippers after signing a new contract in free agency.
Consistently, Jones has found himself in a position to work his way up and earn more responsibility within the rotation. His foundational base of elite verticality at close to 6’7” with a 7’0” wingspan provided him a role as a lob threat, cutter, and transition scorer at the basket. Jones’s energy and activity as an off-ball defender while helping to block shots from the weak side and play passing lanes also helped him earn enough attention for continued opportunities around the league.
Jones’s story is important because of that very energy he’s brought with him every single stop. Nothing has been given to Jones, yet he’s made the most of it and has kept fighting throughout his career. In 2020, he was given the chance to participate in the NBA’s Slam Dunk Contest, and he won the competition to gain notoriety that stemmed from his athletic gifts.
Yes, his God-given abilities got his foot in the door to an extent, but Jones’s consistent improvement year over year has helped him to not only stick around, but even play starter-level minutes for good teams such as the Mavericks and Clippers.
Each season, Jones has improved as a spot-up option from the corners, albeit on low volume. Even having the semblance of a respectable jump shot can open up more lanes for Jones to attack defenses on closeouts, and he was already a high-level finisher off cuts and lobs. Jones has improved his ball-handling ability to operate off the bounce and make the most of any lanes he gets to attack the rim, and has even added some passing elements to his game that weren’t always on display, given his prior boxed-in role as a play finisher.
Forwards that can guard multiple positions, crash the glass, space the floor, and attack the rim with ferocity always have the chance to find a home in the league. But Jones was far from a finished product before he got his chances. He had to fight his way through adversity and claim his spot in the rotation, and that’s a battle that many have to fight to find their way as role players in the NBA.
Common Threads Between NBA Role-Playing Forwards
Pre-Draft Season Efficiency Metrics
Current 2024-25 NBA Efficiency Metrics
Taking a look at these examples, there are some common threads to pull out that align with a lot of the key principles I use in evaluating forward prospects:
Almost every NBA role-playing forward example has a 7’0” plus wingspan, which contributes both in terms of defensive playmaking and rebounding rates
Each forward example is a superior finisher at the basket, be it off assisted or unassisted makes
Each player contributed in numerous areas beyond scoring the basketball, including passing and making the next play while turning the ball over at acceptably low rates given their positional context
Shooting from three-point range either was a staple of each forward’s game before they got to college, or became one through years of development in the NBA; Spacing offered by forwards helps to create an ecosystem that’s healthy in terms of driving lanes and optionality inside the arc
Each forward has the ability to not only create opportunities in terms of deflections, but also switch across multiple positions defensively depending on the situation; All are capable of boxing out bigger players and contesting shots in the post as a low man as needed
Now: who are the prospects in the 2025 NBA Draft class that personify most or all of these traits, and thereby should be viewed as potential steals given where they’re currently slotted on consensus draft boards?
Collin Murray-Boyles, South Carolina: 6’8”, 239 pounds
Player Archetype: Playmaking Forward
Pre-Draft Season Stats:
16.8 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 2.4 APG, 1.5 SPG, 1.3 BPG, 2.4 TOV, .586/.265/.710 Shooting Splits
20.7 FGA Per 100, 2.1 3PA Per 100, 11.5 FTA Per 100
980 MP, 63.0 TS%, 16.3 REB%, 21.1 AST%, 15.4 TOV%, 2.9 STL%, 4.7 BLK%, 26.7 USG%, 11.9 BPM
90th Percentile in Total Offense, 55th in Total Defense
Collin Murray-Boyles grew up in Columbia, South Carolina and attended A.C. Flora High School, where he was named Class 4A Player of the Year as a junior.
He helped his team reach a state championship during that year, all while averaging 18.3 PPG, 11.4 RPG, and 5.3 BPG.
Murray-Boyles transferred to Wasatch Academy in Mt. Pleasant, UT for his senior season. He led the conference in rebounds and was third in points scored. He cemented himself as a consensus Top 100 prospect amongst all major recruiting outlets, graded as a four-star prospect. Murray-Boyles committed to South Carolina to come back home and improve his game to make it to the NBA.
Looking at some of the examples I laid out above about NBA role players who have found success given their strengths before setting foot in the league, it’s not hard to put together that the first player I would mention here is Murray-Boyles.
When Murray-Boyles rose up draft boards last cycle, I was admittedly very skeptical because of his archetype as a non-shooting forward. There is a part of me that’s willing to overlook some of the perimeter shooting concerns given everything else that he brings to the table, particularly on defense.
Now, Murray-Boyles is summed up as an “analytics darling” of sorts because he makes the board light up all over the place as far as defensive activity and offensive efficiency. When you flip on the tape, the first thing that jumps off the page is his ability to guard all over the floor on defense.
His feet are excellent for a player his size, and he gets low enough in a stance to wall off opposing ball handlers, and uses his length to force deflections and make any entry passes difficult for a guard to pull off. Away from any one-on-one action, Murray-Boyles keeps his head on a swivel and is quick to rotate and help other defenders in different coverages. He can contain and wall off drivers off rotations, cover big men in the post, and help to protect the rim from the weakside. Murray-Boyles projects as a plus defensive rebounder at the NBA level, given his strength and box-out technique.
When he gets the board, he can push the ball on offense. Murray-Boyles has the type of passing vision and touch to make a hit-ahead read. If the game slows down, he’s willing to get off the ball, relocate, and position himself on the block to catch and operate. Murray-Boyles has tremendous ball-handling ability for a forward, and he can take nearly any matchup off the bounce. Even with defenders able to play up on him because of his inability to take and make jump shots at a high level, Murray-Boyles bulldozes his way to the basket like Julius Randle and Zach Randolph. Few players can reliably stay in front of him and keep him from getting to the line or scoring at the rim.
When defenses try to double and pressure Murray-Boyles, he has that aforementioned passing vision to read and find an open cutter or spot-up shooter. There were a lot of assists left on the table for Murray-Boyles because his teammates over two seasons weren’t always the best at connecting on those looks, not to mention the number of hockey assists that Murray-Boyles was in position for as a post creator.
The NBA is about connectivity now more than ever, even from forwards who were once viewed as play finishers over anything else. Guys like Derrick Jones and Obi Toppin have had to improve their ball-handling to exploit mismatches and create advantages for themselves or their teammates. Murray-Boyles can do that at will to create downhill pressure towards the rim.
Will he have to figure out how to connect on three-point looks? Yes. Spacing is key at the next level, and having a shooter that other teams can “ignore” isn’t ideal in any context. But at the same time, how many individual defenders are built to keep a player like Murray-Boyles from reaching the basket or making that next pass to find an open player? He can operate as a roll man, diver, cutter, secondary ball-handler… the number of roles he can play is endless.
I’ve reached the point where I completely understand those who have bought in fully to his upside as a potential primary option. Murray-Boyles has succeeded at other levels before his time at South Carolina, and the context in which he spent his college career does leave some room to wonder what his production would’ve looked like in a more competitive context in the SEC or another power conference.
Between what Murray-Boyles can do on both ends of the floor, he brings a lot to the table to justify his grade as a likely starting-caliber role player in the league for years to come.
Rasheer Fleming, Saint Joseph’s: 6’9”, 232 pounds
Player Archetype: Stretch Forward
Pre-Draft Season Stats:
14.7 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 1.3 APG, 1.4 SPG, 1.5 BPG, 1.5 TOV, .531/.390/.740 Shooting Splits
18.9 FGA Per 100, 8.5 3PA Per 100, 5.4 FTA Per 100
1,094 MP, 64.0 TS%, 15.3 REB%, 8.5 AST%, 11.8 TOV%, 2.6 STL%, 4.9 BLK%, 21.2 USG%, 7.7 BPM
95th Percentile in Total Offense, 83rd in Total Defense
Rasheer Fleming grew up in Camden, New Jersey and played right in his hometown for Camden High School. He committed to playing close to home at Saint Joseph’s in Philadelphia, where he’s spent the last three seasons of his college career.
Fleming became the starting power forward for the Hawks midway through his freshman season, and he’s held onto the spot since. Each season, Fleming has improved as a jump shooter, rebounder, and interior defender. His competitive spirit, athleticism, and physical profile all point to a productive forward at levels beyond college basketball, and he did his part to work hard and take his game to new heights as a member of the Atlantic 10. This past season, Fleming was named First Team All-Atlantic 10 as one of the league’s best two-way forwards.
Those who haven’t been as high on Fleming up to this point in the process have concerns for a few reasons. For starters, his numbers on paper don’t point to a player who has operated at high volume with the ball in his hands. He’s shot a limited number of pull-up jumpers, and hasn’t rated highly in any play types including passes. Secondarily, Fleming’s defense has been picked a part a bit in terms of both how active he is over the course of an entire game away from the ball, as well as how good he is against opposing ball handlers on an island.
I’ve seen clips of Fleming easing all of those concerns, and be it as it may, I’m not overly worried about those flaws given what he does bring to the table as a potential NBA role player.
Fleming’s interior finishing is electric and efficient. He scores well off two feet, both as a leaper and operator out of the post. His touch is soft around the basket, and he has the length to finish over interior defenders given his 7’5” wingspan.
In terms of strength profile, Fleming is built tough—especially in his upper body. He can go through the chest of opposing defenders, and on the other side of the ball, guys bounce off of him as they try and challenge him in the lane. He can block the shots of those who try to come directly at him, on top of contesting looks off rotations. I fully buy into Fleming as a legitimate rim protector, and there’s real room for him to play some small-ball center in the league given his massive wingspan, upper-body strength, and hand size.
What’s been the best surprise about Fleming’s development is how good of a jump shooter he’s become from everywhere behind the arc. There aren’t any spots where he wasn’t shooting at least an average clip from distance, be it from up top, on the wings, or from the corners. Fleming isn’t a versatile shooter in terms of coming off other actions and getting up looks on the move, but most of his damage will be done off spot-up opportunities and catch-and-shoot looks off flares out beyond the arc in screening actions.
Fleming’s profile reminds me a lot of where Dorian Finney-Smith was coming into the NBA, except Fleming has all of the physical tools and athletic advantages in his favor. As he continues to improve his awareness on both ends of the floor, Fleming’s ceiling as a valued contributor can continue to push fairly high given where he’s at as far as a spot-up scorer, transition and halfcourt finisher, and rim defender.
NBA teams are always looking for players who possess the strengths Fleming does. Even though I’m always skeptical about players at this stage who haven’t gotten more of a chance to explore the studio space with the ball in their hands, Fleming has those moments on film where he throws a pass that pops, and still has a chance to grow off short rolls in screen-and-roll offense.
I would be happy to take a chance on a player like Fleming, and organizations should be too—so long as there is a plan in place for him to continue developing offensively.
Carter Bryant, Arizona: 6’8”, 215 pounds
Player Archetype: Defense-First Forward
Pre-Draft Season Stats:
6.5 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 1.0 APG, 0.9 SPG, 1.0 BPG, 1.0 TOV, .460/.371/.700 Shooting Splits
14.0 FGA Per 100, 8.4 3PA Per 100, 4.7 FTA Per 100
714 MP, 59.0 TS%, 11.9 REB%, 8.3 AST%, 15.4 TOV%, 2.8 STL%, 5.8 BLK%, 16.4 USG%, 8.8 BPM
71st Percentile in Total Offense, 68th in Total Defense
Carter Bryant grew up in Riverside, CA and attended Fountain Valley High School, where his father was the coach.
After his freshman year, Bryant transferred to Sage Hill School in Newport Beach, CA after his father was hired. He was named Pacific Coast Conference MVP after a junior season in which he averaged 22.1 PPG, 13.7 RPG, 4.0 APG, 2.9 BPG, and 1.6 SPG.
Bryant tranferred one more time in his senior year to Centennial High School in Corona, CA. He was selected as a McDonald’s All-American, and he also participated in the Nike Hoop Summit and Jordan Brand Classic events. Bryant was a four-star recruit who committed to playing at Arizona under Tommy Lloyd.
To be frank, Bryant’s season wasn’t filled with numerous outings of high-volume scoring and playmaking. He played a reserve role on a veteran squad, but still provided value off the bench as a backup forward. Arizona was a better unit when he was on the floor because of his defensive ability.
Bryant’s shooting wasn’t poor by any means, but there were some games where he was streaky. There are enough moments on tape where Bryant made some slick dimes in the halfcourt, and when his shot was falling, Bryant looked every bit like a traditional one-and-done player.
But in outings where the shot wasn’t falling, Bryant still stood out on tape on defense. There may not be more than two or three other forwards that can come into the NBA and play at a close-to-average level defensively on the perimeter, or even above average.
Bryant is built well at 6’8” and possesses the size and length of an NBA forward. He’s made for playing passing lanes, creating deflections, and sticking with players one-on-one. Away from the ball, Bryant was better than advertised as a guy who read the floor well and made rotations when needed to help. He communicated switches, and he held his own on several different positional matchups in his lone season at Arizona.
All of that being said, Bryant, like Cedric Coward mentioned in my previous piece, is as theoretical of a swing as you’re going to find in lottery territory in the 2025 NBA Draft. His self-created attempts at the basket are rather low for someone who likely will need to improve their ball handling to return value inside the Top 10 of the draft. There are some examples of his vision and creativity from a standstill in terms of passing, but his ability to break down defenders from the perimeter is largely still a question mark.
Will Bryant be a good enough shooter to justify his offensive role given the lack of proven ball-handling volume? That is the main question on a lot of scouts’ minds heading into the draft.
What I’m choosing to buy into is Bryant’s comfort level operating in different defensive schemes as a switchable forward. I view his ability to cover opposing perimeter threats, limit penetration, and make plays on the ball as a real core strength of his game that can translate to the next level.
When evaluating positions outside of guards, it’s critical to see some sort of defensive upside unless said player is an otherworldly shooting prospect. More often than not, the backcourt is not where the most defensive value is going to be found in a lineup (though the Oklahoma City Thunder have shown time and time again how awesome a defense can be with multiple defenders who can switch and challenge at the point of attack).
Frontcourt players are on the floor to cover gaps and fill in holes defensively. They’re there for support by the rim, and are targets in pick-and-roll situations as much as guards are if they aren’t up to task.
Bryant projects to do more than hold his own defensively in the NBA. Yes, he needs to figure out what his core offensive skill is in order to command more than a bench role in the league. I buy his shooting stroke as a spot-up threat, and if that’s the case, it’s difficult to pass on a player like Bryant, given where the league continues to trend in terms of plus positional size and length that can cover as much ground as possible on defense.
Eric Dixon, Villanova: 6’9”, 259 pounds
Player Archetype: Scoring Forward
Pre-Draft Season Stats:
23.3 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 1.9 APG, 0.8 SPG, 0.3 BPG, 2.1 TOV, .451/.407/.810 Shooting Splits
30.7 FGA Per 100, 13.0 3PA Per 100, 11.0 FTA Per 100
1,218 MP, 58.0 TS%, 9.0 REB%, 13.1 AST%, 9.7 TOV%, 1.5 STL%, 1.1 BLK%, 34.7 USG%, 8.5 BPM
87th Percentile in Total Offense, 43rd in Total Defense
Eric Dixon was born in Bryn Mawr, PA, and attended Abington Senior High School, where he was a standout basketball player in Southeast PA. Dixon averaged 27.9 PP and 11.6 RPG by the time he was a senior, and helped his school win a PIAA Class 6A District 1 title with a 28-2 record. Dixon was the star player in that championship, as he put up 38 points to help Abington win in overtime.
Dixon finished his career as Abington’s all-time leading scorer with 2,454 points to his name. As a four-star recruit out of high school, Dixon committed to Villanova so he could stay close to home.
Dixon redshirted his true freshman season, but developed over the next two years as he gained a larger role within the rotation and earned Big 5 Most Improved Player as a sophomore. Dixon went on to earn Second Team All-Big East as a junior, and this past season he was a Third Team All-American after finishing as the nation’s leading scorer at over 23 PPG.
Dixon leaves Villanova as the school’s all-time leading scorer, now the second time he can say that in his pre-professional career.
That’s the source of all of Dixon’s pro stock. This dude is just an absolute bucket in every way imaginable.
Dixon was more of an inside-the-arc scorer earlier on in his career, but as he needed to take over as Villanova’s number one option, he extended his game out beyond the arc in prolific ways. Dixon’s three-point attempt rate was one of the highest for a wing or forward prospect in this draft class, and his overall attempts from three per 100 possessions rival that of some of the best guard shooters in this class and prior.
Not only did Dixon shoot the absolute hell out of the ball this past year, but he got to the line at an exceptional rate and was a true three-level scorer for the Wildcats.
It’s not just spot-up shooting for Dixon. He can create from three-point range off the dribble, can pull up inside the arc, and go into the post and pull off some tough finishes as a strong-bodied forward. His bag in creating his own looks is unusual for that of a nearly 260-pound forward, meaning his game is as unique as any one could evaluate going into a draft.
Dixon’s defense and rebounding efforts do leave something to be desired. He’s a capable playmaker, but isn’t known for his passing ability. These are real warts to address if Dixon wants to be a long-time NBA player.
I’m not of the mindset that Dixon is a POOR defender. He can hold his own around the basket and challenge opposing drivers. Does he belong out on the perimeter against opposing ball handlers on an island? Probably not. Will coaches likely have to figure out the best place to “hide” Dixon on defense? Entirely possible.
But players with his scoring track record and nuclear shooting capabilities don’t come around often. I haven’t seen a player take over a college game from an offensive standpoint like Dixon did in quite some time. No player really comes to mind to me from the forward spot over the last decade. We’d be going back to players like Michael Beasley and Kevin Durant when factoring in his position. Even a player like Doug McDermott wasn’t quite the overall scoring package that Dixon has been over the last two years, though he was damn good in his own right as a mismatch wing.
Dixon is a specialist at his core. Whether he’s able to weaponize more of his ball handling and actually get downhill to draw fouls at a rate anywhere close to what he did in college remains to be seen. But his shooting touch and priors indicate a unique player who can actually work off some movement, screen and pop, and hit spot-up looks at an above-average clip. That type of player is valuable in nearly any professional context.
Jamison Battle was a player who wasn’t regarded highly enough coming out of college, yet had a lot of the same warts/concerns in his game as Dixon without having nearly the same experience as a high-volume scorer. Yet he carved out his own role off the bench for the Toronto Raptors and got some consideration for an All-Rookie berth.
If Battle can figure out how to stay on the floor without fouling his way off it, I have hope that Dixon can stick around and become a scoring specialist for an NBA team.
You're insane if you think CMB can be a primary option. At best he's a third option on a playoff team. He's an average athlete who is left hand dominant and dosen't shoot at all. The fit is extremely hard to make room for, and despite being a solid passer his turnover issues are terrible, but you can attest those to high usage. He's never posting up a lick in the NBA, it's away from that. CMB dosen't even attempt 3s, which is worse than not hitting them at all. In the NBA, he won't be able to attack mismatches as frequently, since the athleticism and strength go up a notch comapred to college. He can't attack off the catch since he isn't shooting at all, and he has trouble finishing against real size C's (dosen't have to be 7 footers), or even just any players (his numbers were fine in this area though). I like his ball handling, but when he's bumped on his drives he takes bad looks. Needs to roll to the basket even more, and most of his vaule will come when he's screening. Can he eventually defend the NBA’s big guards/wing-sized ballhandlers? I believe so. He's an elite defender IMO, but i wouldn't be surprised he drops far considering the limitations above. That being said, hes an elite defender, solid passer and ball handler. He contributes to winning in all of his outcomes, which is why i'm not low on him, just in the middle. Love the write-up, always love a new no ceilings post, keep going! Love Carter Bryant.