Statistical Red Flags and The Guys Who Beat Them, Volume Two
Statistical red flags are serious business. But which NBA draft prospects tend to overcome them, and what can we learn from that information as it pertains to the 2026 NBA Draft?
I don’t go on social media as much as I used to, but it feels like every time I pull up Twitter (also known as “X: The Everything App”), I see a post about how a prospect’s statistical red flags may spell doom for them at the next level. Statistical red flags are no joke, and they need to be approached with a high level of seriousness. That said, it’s still important to consider the context of the player.
For instance, I was too low on Jaylen Wells during the 2024 NBA Draft. A big part of that was his lackluster stock rates. I should’ve known better. While Wells did have that statistical red flag, he checked a lot of boxes for players who have overcome it. He had a good OBPM, he scored efficiently, he had a low turnover rate, he was great at the free-throw line and from three, and he took great care of the ball. These tendencies all have strong overlap with those of other long-term NBA players who overcame poor college stock ratings. By focusing on what Wells didn’t do rather than asking if he could succeed anyway, I cost myself the most important thing in the basketball evaluation world—the chance to victory lap on a prospect.
Today, we’ll be discussing various statistical red flags and, more importantly, the guys who can overcome them. Feel free to apply these lessons to players of your choice in the upcoming 2026 NBA Draft. Or don’t, it’s your call!
Survivorship Bias
Before we get deep into the weeds, I want to talk about Survivorship Bias. Today, we will be looking at players who managed to beat their statistical red flags and find NBA success, then finding commonalities across their games. Still, it is important to remember that a player who shares these traits still might not have an automatic meal ticket to success, because we’re exclusively looking at the players who did pan out.
To use the same example I used last year, think about this in terms of Jaylen Wells and Cam Christie. Both Wells and Christie were good college shooters on high volume who took care of the ball well but struggled to finish inside and produce on defense. While Jaylen Wells managed to succeed, Cam Christie, who had a similar statistical profile at a younger age, has yet to be productive at the NBA level and has even struggled in the G League. I say all this to say it’s not a guarantee that someone will necessarily have a long-term NBA career because that player has similar red flags and strengths to a long-term NBA player who has succeeded in the past.
DISCLAIMER: All statistics are relative to long-term NBA players within their position group during their pre-draft seasons. For the sake of simplicity, I’ve organized percentiles into the following tiers: Great (81st through 100th percentile), Good (61st through 100th percentile), Adequate (41st through 60th percentile), Subpar (21st through 40th percentile), and Poor (20th percentile and below).
The Red Flag: Low Stock Guards
“Stocks,” or “steals + blocks,” is a useful proxy for athleticism and feel. If an athletic player can functionally harness their gifts, they should be able to produce steals and blocks at a healthy clip. There’s also the other side of that coin, where players who might be lacking ideal physical traits still manage to find ways to create events defensively by outsmarting opponents. But when you have players who don’t generate much on the stat sheet defensively, it becomes cause for concern. If the player can’t win with athleticism, feel, or some blend of the two in college, then what hope do they have of staying on an NBA floor? There have been a number of players this year, such as Mikel Brown Jr., Darius Acuff Jr., and Keaton Wagler, who have been dinged for their poor stock production. By taking a look at these players, we can see what that may mean for them at the next level.
Long-term NBA guards since 2017 with subpar steal AND block rates in their pre-draft season:
Aaron Holiday
Ayo Dosunmu
Bryn Forbes
Collin Gillespie
Collin Sexton
Donte DiVincenzo
Gabe Vincent
Jalen Brunson
Jared McCain
Jordan Poole
Landry Shamet
-All 11 players had an Adequate or better True Shooting Percentage, with seven of them grading out as Great.
-10 of the 11 players had an Adequate or better Free Throw Percentage
-10 of the 11 players had an Adequate or better Effective Field Goal Percentage, with eight of them grading out as Good or better.
-10 of the 11 players had an Adequate or better 3FG%, with seven grading out as Good or better.
-10 of the 11 players had an Adequate or better pull-up 3FG%, with eight grading out as Good or better.
-10 of the 11 players had an Adequate or better rate of Threes Per 100 Possessions, with nine grading out as Good or better.
-Nine of the 11 players had an Adequate or better Halfcourt True Shooting Percentage
-Nine of the 11 players had an Adequate or better OBPM
-Nine of the 11 players had an Adequate or better pull-up 2FG%
-Nine of the 11 players had an Adequate or better catch-and-shoot 3FG%
-Eight of the 11 players had an Adequate or better rate of Fouls Per 100 Possessions
-Eight of the 11 players had an Adequate or better Points Per 100 Possessions
-Eight of the 11 players had an Adequate or better pull-up two-pointer volume
-Seven of the 11 players had an Adequate or better BPM
-Seven of the 11 players had an Adequate or better 2FG%
-Seven of the 11 players had an Adequate or better half-court rim FG%
It should come as no surprise that if the defensive bar is going to be low, the offensive bar is going to have to be really, really high. Scoring efficiency is a must. Additionally, shooting is paramount, with a hefty majority of these shooters grading out well in terms of three-point volume, pull-up three-point percentage, and catch-and-shoot three-point percentage. Heck, even pull-up two-point percentage and volume were here, too. If you’re not going to create high-efficiency transition opportunities, you have to be really efficient in a half-court context. There wasn’t as much of a correlation between things like assist rate or assist-to-turnover ratio as I expected. The biggest commonalities, far and away, were the ability to get your own bucket often and efficiently.
I want to talk a little philosophy here, real quick. I totally understand why evaluators still might be afraid to rank this type of prospect super high on their board. There are always exceptions, as Jalen Brunson is one of the NBA’s best offensive engines, for instance. But I do think the demand for “low stocks guards” who don’t produce at a truly high level is quite low league-wide right now, as we saw at the trade deadline. That said, I do think if a player checks the boxes noted above, it’s important to be careful about fading them too aggressively.
The Red Flag: Low Assist Rate Wings
The NBA is a dribble-pass-shoot league. So, what do we make of the wings who are more play-finishing oriented, or simply aren’t seeing the floor that well during their college career? This topic has come up quite a bit this year with Darryn Peterson, who was regarded as more of a guard coming into the cycle. At Kansas, he’s drawn some criticism for his tendency to stop the ball and hunt his shot rather than pick apart the defense on the go.
Long-term NBA wings (2/3 position) since 2017 with subpar assist rates in their pre-draft season:
Buddy Hield
Cam Reddish
Cam Thomas
Devin Vassell
Duncan Robinson
Gary Trent
Gradey Dick
Isaiah Joe
Jaylen Wells
Keon Ellis
Lonnie Walker
Luke Kennard
Malik Beasley
Malik Monk
Matisse Thybulle
Max Christie
Moses Moody
Quentin Grimes
-15 of the 18 had an Adequate or better Free Throw Percentage, with 13 of them rated as Good or better.
-13 of the 18 had a Good or better Turnover Rate
-12 of the 18 had an Adequate or better Three-Point Volume, with 10 rated as Good or better.
-12 of the 18 had an Adequate or better DBPM
-12 of the 18 had an Adequate or better rate of Fouls Per 100 Possessions
-12 of the 18 had an Adequate or better Offensive Rebound Rate
-12 of the 18 had an Adequate or better pull-up two-pointer volume
-11 of the 18 had an Adequate or better Effective Field Goal Percentage
-11 of the 18 had an Adequate or better OBPM
-11 of the 18 had an Adequate or better 3FG%
There were two big commonalities that stuck out. The first was shooting touch. Generally speaking, these guys were great at the line, took a ton of threes, and made their shots more often than their counterparts. The next biggest was that these players tended to have low turnover rates. So, if a prospect isn’t the most dynamic creator, it’s probably important that they at least limit their mistakes.
If we’re looking at this through the Darryn Peterson lens, I would say there’s good news and bad news. Let’s do the bad news first. This list is far more tilted toward role players than stars. The hope would be that Peterson, once healthy, can create advantages more easily and get back to weaponizing his passing as he did at lower levels. The good news is that nothing about Peterson’s playmaking shortcomings this season should preclude him from having a long, successful NBA career. He’s hitting 40.5% of his threes on super high volume, and he has a microscopic 8.7 TOV%. The fact that he’s a flamethrower from distance and a low-mistake player gives him a strong floor.
The Red Flag: Forwards Who Can’t Finish
I recently wrote about Nate Ament. There’s a lot to like about Tennessee’s 6’10” freshman. I’m bullish on how his shooting projects; he’s a reliable decision maker, and he draws a ton of fouls. Still, I couldn’t help but shake the fact that he doesn’t get to the rim at a high clip, and that he’s been a poor finisher once he does get there. That made me want to look at those with similar issues in college.
Long-term NBA forwards (3/4 position) since 2017 with adequate or below rim pressure rates and subpar or worse rim finishing numbers in their pre-draft season:
Brandon Ingram
Brandon Miller
Cam Johnson
Danuel House
Franz Wagner
Jaden McDaniels
Jaylen Brown
Julian Strawther
Keldon Johnson
Kyle Kuzma
Peyton Watson
Saddiq Bey
-10 of the 12 had an adequate or better Pull-Up Two-Pointer Volume
-10 of the 12 had an adequate or better rate of Threes Per 100 Possessions, with eight coming in at Good or better.
-Nine of the 12 had an adequate or better Turnover Rate, with eight coming in at Good or better.
-Nine of the 12 had an adequate or better rate of Fouls Per 100 Possessions
-Eight of the 12 had an adequate or better Usage Rate
-Eight of the 12 had an adequate or better OBPM
-Eight of the 12 had an adequate or better Assist-to-Turnover Ratio
-Eight of the 12 had an adequate or better Points Per 100 Possessions
-Eight of the 12 had an adequate or better Pull-Up 2FG%
-Eight of the 12 had an adequate or better 3FG%
-Eight of the 12 had an adequate or better Catch-and-Shoot 3FG%
Again, shooting touch is largely what gets the job done for players with this issue. These guys took and made a lot of threes to compensate for their shortcomings at the basket. Additionally, these players tended to make few mistakes despite generally taking on higher usage burdens. This bodes well for Nate Ament, as he’s a comfortable perimeter scorer who makes the right decision more often than not. Surprisingly, here, the defensive outputs among this group were all over the map, but can be instructive in determining where a player’s floor and ceiling could settle.
The Red Flag: Interior-Limited Big Men
I’ve long been a big fan of Yaxel Lendeborg. The hybrid big man, who I guess you could consider a forward at this point, honestly, checks many of my favorite boxes. At 6’9” with a 7’4” wingspan, he’s a big, long dude who competes hard and really knows how to play the game. Still, a big worry for him coming into the season, which still persists to a degree, is that he’s not the most vertically explosive player, and he’s long struggled with finishing through contact. So, what does the roadmap for someone like him look like?
Long-term NBA big men (4/5 position) since 2017 with below-average dunk volume and half-court rim field goal percentages in their pre-draft season:
Day’Ron Sharpe
Isaiah Jackson
Jakob Poeltl
Jaren Jackson Jr
Jarred Vanderbilt
Jaylin Williams
Kyle Filipowski
Lauri Markkanen
Luka Garza
Luke Kornet
Moritz Wagner
Naz Reid
Quinten Post
Zeke Nnaji
-11 of the 14 had an Adequate or better Usage Rate, with eight of them grading out as Good or better.
-10 of the 14 had an Adequate or better Assist Rate
-10 of the 14 had an Adequate or better Assist-to-Turnover Ratio, with eight of them grading out as Good or better.
-10 of the 14 had an Adequate or better Free Throw Percentage
-10 of the 14 had an Adequate or better Rate of Threes Per 100 Possessions, with nine of them grading out as Good or better.
-9 of the 14 had an Adequate or better Three-Point Percentage, with eight of them grading out as Good or better.
-9 of the 14 had an Adequate or better Points Per 100 Possessions
-8 of the 14 had an Adequate or better Defensive Rebound Rate
-8 of the 14 had an Adequate or better Steal Rate
If you’re a big guy who doesn’t have a go-to way to score inside, there has to be some sort of perimeter skill that you’re bringing to the table. For some of these players, it was shooting touch. Many in this group were high-volume shooters relative to their height, and they made those shots at a strong clip, too. But even the ones who weren’t necessarily shooters were still good enough with the ball that they could find a way to provide better spacing through their ball skills and decision-making. Players like Jakob Poeltl and DayRon Sharp aren’t likely to knock down a three, but the fact that they can sling the ball to open teammates from the perimeter definitely helps open things up for their team. I also thought it was interesting that more often than not, perimeter skill showed up on defense with regard to steal rate, even while these players still managed to use their bulk on the defensive glass. If a big man isn’t necessarily a lob target or dominant finisher, it’s important to ask whether or not they have the skill away from the basket to compensate for it.
This couldn’t be better news for Yaxel Lendeborg. He loves to let the three-ball fly, he’s a good shooter for his size, he’s an awesome passer, he rebounds, and he’s a disruptive defender on the perimeter. While he may not be the best lob target or finisher in heavy traffic, the fact that he’s got a skill set loaded up with perimeter tools should go a long way in helping him mitigate that issue.
Conclusion
It’s easy to be a hater. And honestly, sometimes, it’s a little fun. But if you’re going to be a hater, I’d ask that you at least be an informed hater. Ignoring statistical red flags can be a gateway to disaster. There have been plenty of players with flaws so severe that they inhibited them from NBA success. Heck, there are more of those guys than there are guys who went on to succeed. Generally, we’re only looking at about 20-25 guys in a given draft who are going to supply positive value throughout the course of their NBA career. It’s important to look through each prospect’s game with a fine-tooth comb for that reason alone. But when you find a statistical red flag, don’t throw the baby out with the bathwater! Be curious! Try to dig into what could get that player over the hump. Jalen Brunson, Jaylen Wells, Franz Wagner, and Naz Reid were all undervalued to one degree or another on draft night. But if discerning evaluators can figure out who is more likely to overcome a statistical shortcoming, it could be a major victory for their franchise.
QUICK HITS
-It’s Big Board Week internally at No Ceilings! Today, I’ll be focusing on some of the biggest risers and players that I’m higher on than consensus.
-I get that Bennett Stirtz is sort of an older, known commodity. He also has some legitimate athletic limitations as it pertains to his lateral agility, straight-line burst, and wiggle. That said, how many guards shoot over 60% from two in conference play while also being nearly 40% from three? Throw in his ability to thrive in a complex offensive system, and I worry that he’s gone a tad underdiscussed in a loaded guard class. I also think his vertical athleticism and ability to time plays in passing lanes are legitimate tools that could manifest themselves more in a secondary role at the next level. This archetype consistently goes under-drafted, and I would caution front offices to be careful with how they rank Stirtz.
-I feel like I’m losing my mind with Tarris Reed Jr. at this point. I’ve been a fan since his pre-college days and already had him in my Top 30 when I covered him for No Stone Unturned this offseason. The 6’11” senior is physically enormous, he moves well, and he’s polished in drop coverage. As a result, he’s a versatile ball screen defender with a 9.8 BLK% and 2.3 STL%. He’s also a big-time rebounder on both ends of the floor and a smart playmaker (18.1 AST%). This blend of size, production, feel, agility, and defensive output is wild. I get it, he’s older, and he doesn’t shoot threes. But every other “long-term NBA center” box is checked here, and his physical tools should enable him to make an impact sooner rather than later. I strongly dislike the phrase, “don’t overthink it.” In Tarris Reed Jr.’s case, I’m just begging people to think it. This stuff translates.
-Allen Graves. The 6’9” forward/big is perhaps one of the most discussed prospects in niche circles this season. Long-time readers know how much I love bigger dudes who really know how to play. I’ll elaborate more in the coming weeks, but I think it works in the NBA. I’m certainly not “first” here, and I want to be cautious with any mid-major player in the current climate, but his intersection of skills is super valuable and malleable. I’m a fan.
-I’ve really come around on Michigan sophomore Morez Johnson Jr. I feel like every year, there’s a “Well, I know he can play in an NBA game, but…” prospect that I undervalue. I don’t want to make that mistake here. There are certainly nits to pick with regard to the 6’9” sophomore’s positional size and playmaking process. But Johnson’s production, rebounding, defensive versatility, ability to get out and run, and touch improvements are too much to overlook. The dude is a winner.
-I’ve gone back-and-forth on 6’9” graduate Trevon Brazile a lot over the years. He’s an awesome athlete with high-end agility who can jump out of the gym, and he’s got solid shooting touch. Still, he was always a bit too erratic for me. This year, he’s been so much smoother attacking closeouts and reading the floor on the go (1.7 APG to 1.2 TOV). Maybe he’s not a true value add, but I think his skill set is awesome in an innings-eating context if nothing else. I have him in my guaranteed contract range.
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