Stephen's Eight Pivotal Prospects
Stephen takes a look at eight prospects who could have a major impact on the success of the 2025 NBA Draft Class. PLUS: Transfer Portal notes!
Do you remember the buzz that came with last year’s draft class? You may be saying to yourself: “Stephen, what buzz?” You’d be right. As someone who loves basketball and talent evaluation, that year was a bit of both good and bad.
The bad? Watching players that are truly game changing—or, dare I say generational—tremendously effect how we watch the game. While Jared McCain had his moments prior to injury, and Stephon Castle continues to prove me proud for having him as my top prospect, neither of them came into the season with the same type of star power or acclaim as Cooper Flagg or Dylan Harper.
But…what about the good? The good comes from unearthing players who have apparent flaws in their game, but we are able to stare through the glare and determine how impactful they can be. Compared to last season—which was thought of as a “Role Player Draft”—this season’s crop of prospects is fairly top-heavy. Cooper Flagg, Dylan Harper, and Ace Bailey are largely thought of as the consensus Top 3, but V.J. Edgecombe, Tre Johnson, and Kasparas Jakucionis are a few of the players who add some strong depth.
For many, there are about 12-15 players who are viewed as traditionally safe talents. Outside of that, this class is wide open. There’s no doubt NBA teams are more excited to have a shot at top-end talent; however, the steep cliff in franchise-altering pieces could give front offices a bit of anxiety when Adam Silver puts them on the clock.
Who can save us from the doldrums of the latter portion of the first half? Are there any prospects that are volatile enough to help bolster or burst the fortunes of an NBA franchise and this class as a whole? That’s what I’m here to discuss.
Here are my Eight Pivotal Prospects who can solidify the 2025 NBA Draft!
Jase Richardson | Guard | Michigan State | Freshman | 6’3” | 175
Few players have seen their stock change as much as Jase Richardson. Jase began this season outside of the $DRFT IPO Top 70—which determined the average stock price of many players among all reputable draft outlets. Now, you’ll see Jase projected to go anywhere from eighth at Bleacher Report to 24th at ESPN. Sam Vecenie at The Athletic ranked him 11th on his latest Big Board, and we at No Ceilings had Jase at 20 on our Big Board.
The reason that Jase has experienced such a rise in his stock is sort of twofold. For one, the door has been left wide open for anybody to solidify the Top 30 in this class. Besides that, Richardson has been pretty good. On the year, Jase has put up 12 PPG, 3.2 RPG, and 1.9 APG on shooting splits of 51/41/84. Jase, the son of NBA star Jason Richardson, plays with a ton of poise and can get to his spots with relative ease. Not only can he get to those spots, but he converts from everywhere.
Synergy ranks Jase in the 96th percentile in scoring out of the pick-and-roll. Including his passing, his efficiency in the pick-and-roll drops, but only to the 90th percentile. He also ranks in the 93rd percentile in transition, in the 90th percentile when spotting up, and in the 85th percentile operating off of screens. With this sort of offensive potency, you’re probably wondering: “What’s the catch?”.
Jase is listed at 6’3”. That’s listed, with a possibility that he could be smaller. In the past three draft classes, the following smaller guards were drafted:
Reed Sheppard
Rob Dillingham
Devin Carter
Bub Carrington
Jared McCain
Isaiah Collier
Scoot Henderson
Cason Wallace
Kobe Bufkin
Keyonte George
Nick Smith Jr.
Jaden Ivey
If you consider the names that were taken higher—Scoot, Reed, Jaden—there are some distinct traits they have. They were all very athletic. While Reed may not have had the mass of Scoot and Ivey, he proved to be a very good athlete. Those three also showed some stellar promise on the defensive end. Those traits aren’t exactly prominent in Jase’s game.
Most of the other players listed above were also very physical and defensively gifted. The two who are most similar to Jase are Nick Smith Jr. and Rob Dillingham. Nick Smith and Dillingham share the ability to create separation to get their shots—similar to Jase. Jase does seem to be more sturdy than what we saw from Nick Smith Jr., but Richardson is not as shifty as Rob (very few are). While he isn’t as shifty, Richardson is slippery and can manipulate the defense to move around them.
These strengths and areas of improvement that Jase has in his game are why you’ll see such variance in how people project him.
Will Riley | Wing | Illinois | Freshman | 6’9” | 175
Unlike Jase Richardson, Will Riley came into this season with some expectations. Listed at 6’9” with a bit shooting, there were some that were very high on him. It wasn’t too crazy to think that Riley, playing alongside fellow draft prospect Kasparas Jakucionis, could be a major player when the draft came around.
That could still be the case, but Will has seen his draft stock experience some twists and turns throughout this freshman season. For instance, in his first game against Eastern Illinois, he went for 31 points on 10-of-13 shooting, with seven boards and three assists. Over his next 19 games, Riley scored in double figures just eight times—with shooting splits of 39/33/69.
The 13-game stretch that followed saw Will fail to score in double figures only once, as he averaged 16.3 PPG, 4.9 RPG, and 3.3 APG with splits of 48/33/75.
What makes Riley so enticing as a prospect is simple. For one, he has NBA length. Listed at 6’9”, Will plays with a ton of energy and is a threat on or off of the ball. Though he is only making about a third of his threes, the fact that he is putting up over nine threes per 100 possessions is actually encouraging for his trajectory. He falls into a category of player I always find weird, where he is better at shooting while guarded (37.3% on 32 attempts) as opposed to being open (28.2% on 28 attempts). For whatever reason, it feels like players who are better shooters when guarded can figure out how to shoot open as opposed to the alternative (more research required).
Will has also been a very solid decision-maker when creating. Synergy grades Riley out in the 49th percentile (Average) when scoring as the pick-and-roll ball-handler. When passes are included, Riley ranks in the 58th percentile (Good) when operating the same type of sets. Again, at his size, NBA teams are going to find his feel intriguing.
Where the hesitation lies in projecting Will too high comes from his slight frame. Riley weighs in about the same as Jase Richardson while having about six-ish inches on him, height-wise. As talented as he has shown to be, this will cause pause for some front offices if he can’t handle the physicality of the NBA relatively soon. Despite being a bit slight-of-frame, Riley has put up decent numbers on the boards in his conference—however, his defensive impact is a direct reflection of the strength disparity. Whatever cracks exist in his armor in college will only be exploited more. For his position of a wing—and potentially forward duties—he’ll need to work hard to add mass.
These strengths and areas of improvement are prevalent within the draft discourse, too. ESPN ranked Riley 22nd—citing the strength and defensive concerns as to why NBA teams are hesitant. The Athletic ranked him at 49th in late February, but mocked him at 39. Bleacher Report had him at 32. Our team ranked him at 35. Just paying attention to what NBA people are saying about Will and the draft at large, I would expect him to be in the mix for being as high as 18 once we hit combine season. From there, all bets are off.
Nolan Traore | Guard | Saint-Quentin | International (France) | 6’4” | 175
Will Riley may have entered this cycle with some modicum of buzz, but Nolan Traore was a consensus Top 5 prospect by pretty much everyone. With French prospects being on the rise, it was all but assumed that Traore was going to continue the stretch of elite players from Tony Parker’s homeland. Although not what many would consider a “jumbo playmaker” size-wise, Nolan was listed at pretty good size while also possessing insane speed. Also, his processing jumped off the film.
So, what’s the reason he became so polarizing, you may ask?
Well, like most of the recent European prospects we’ve seen as of late, Traore struggled to shoot the ball. The lack of a reliable stroke typically means guard prospects have to be elite in at least one of two areas: athleticism and defense. While he wasn’t thought of as a revolving door, Nolan wasn’t thought to be Marcus Smart, either. And while he had some zoom, Nolan wasn't thought of in the realm of Ja Morant. This led to his stock taking a severe hit among many NBA circles.
What happens with most international prospects that aren’t setting the net on fire is that they are sort of left in the dark, conversationally. Not much has been put out about Traore in the dialogue, other than the occasional mock draft or big board update. Keeping up with his film, there is still much polarization to Nolan’s game.
He still hasn’t figured out the shot, as he is just under 26% from deep. This is the same percentage he shot in just a handful of games last season for the same Saint-Quentin club. Even on his two-pointers, Traore is just a 46% scorer. It is to Nolan’s advantage that he has knocked down over 47% of his open three off of the catch. In fact, he is a 37.5% catch-and-shoot three-point shooter on the year.
Now, the quickness and vision are what keep him within the realm of real draftability. On the season, Traore is scoring over 10 PPG while dishing out 4.6 APG. The pressure he can apply on the defense—especially at his age (still just 18 in a pro league)—gives some hope that he can figure it out.
Though we have Traore ranked at 25th collectively, I can assure you that his name comes with a wide variance in how he is ranked among our crew. ESPN—who has maintained a higher-than-most ranking of him all season—has him at 15. The Athletic ranked him at 14, while Bleacher Report has him at 17. I think that—perhaps more than most—Traore benefits from how wide-open this class gets outside of the lottery.
Carter Bryant | Forward | Arizona | Freshman | 6’8” | 220
A top recruit in his class, Carter Bryant committed to play for Arizona over the likes of St. John’s, Gonzaga, Louisville, and Duke—among many others. While this seemed like a great move for all parties, Bryant has been more of a role player for the Wildcats—playing under 19 minutes per game behind Trey Townsend, Tobe Awaka, and Henri Veesaar. This limited playing time led to Carter producing averages of 6.4 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 1.0 APG, 1.0 BPG, and 0.9 SPG.
The good news is that Bryant was very productive and showed plenty of flashes to his game—giving credit to him being ranked 20th on College Basketball’s RSCI rankings. Bryant had a usage percentage of just 16.1 during the regular season, which may result in some doubts about his projections. Despite a low usage, Carter showed a hot-burning motor on defense, which yielded a 5.8 Block Percentage and a Steals Percentage of 2.7.
Playing in a smaller role meant that Bryant had to make the most out of every minute and learn quickly from mistakes. As you could assume, a mistake deemed unforgivable by Tommy Llyod meant a trip back to the bench. Despite a short leash, Bryant knocked down over 36% of his threes on over eight attempts per 100. He also converted on all 14 of his dunk attempts.
The problem that comes from projecting a player on limited minutes is trying to toe the line between extrapolating his production to a larger role while also knowing that his effort and energy could change. In other words, would the 4.9 fouls per game based on his “per 40” really be there if he knew he would be playing more? These are the types of questions NBA front offices have to wrestle with when considering drafting him. Think: Peyton Watson in his lone year at UCLA.
Carter came in at 24 on our No Ceilings Big Board, but some of us (yours truly included) are significantly higher than that ranking. He came in at 19 on Bleacher Report’s latest board. Sam Vecenie also had him at 19. ESPN completes the hat-trick by ranking him at 19. It’s worth noting that Givony stated “Bryant is the type of player who could help his standing in the predraft process as teams get a better look at him in a workout setting”.
With so many outlets having a physical, athletic, 19-year-old, 6’8” forward that has produced as potently as Carter did in limited minutes in the first round, I would be willing to wager that Bryant could be the combine darling with a real shot to claim lottery real estate.
Alex Condon | Big | Florida | Sophomore | 6’11” | 230
It may feel like Alex Condon suddenly burst onto the scene, but the Australian sophomore played over 20 minutes per game in 36 games (one start) for the Florida Gators last season. During that season, Condon averaged 7.7 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 1.2 APG, and 1.3 BPG. That production for a freshman is quite impressive in the SEC; however, many eyes were on other prospects, and Florida had a deep big man rotation that Alex benefitted from out there.
Despite the clear production for a high major team in a strong conference, Condon didn’t get much love from consensus coming into the year; 70 players made the $DRFT rankings—polling from all major outlets—and Condon did not make that cut.
It didn’t take long for Condon to start turning heads. In the nine non-conference games Florida played to start the season, Alex averaged over 11 PPG and 7 RPG, with shooting splits of over 50/47/67. By the end of conference play, he averaged around 11 PPG, 8 RPG, 2 APG, and 1.5 BPG.
Condon plays such a translatable game. He runs the floor hard. He is a strong player, though he has room to improve on that front. He mixes it up on the boards, sets hard screens, and moves very well on defense.
What makes him so intriguing on offense is that he makes good decisions passing the ball (1.9 assist-to-turnover ratio), but can also make some moves putting the ball on the deck. As we all know, NBA offenses prefer to have a big that the offense can flow through. Condon has shown the ability to facilitate. Not only that, but Alex is pretty confident in shooting the rock. His percentages have fallen since the non-con play, but the shot looks clean.
It seems that the obstacle that Condon is challenged with is overcoming the fact that he has been a complete shock within the draft community. Perhaps some believe he is in an ideal situation to perform well. I think most NBA teams will have guards that can play with and off Alex—in a very similar way Florida guards can.
ESPN ranked Alex 28th on their latest board. Vecenie had him at 50 (again, late February) but mocked him at 37 on March 19th. Bleacher Report ranked Alex at 36. On our latest board, Condon came in at 50, but we mocked him at 31 to Boston. The time between our mock and big board was about 10 days—enough time for some convincing conversation. Those same conversations are happening in NBA front offices.
Yaxel Lendeborg | Forward/Big | Senior | UAB | 6’9” | 240
Yaxel Lendeborg is facing a few hurdles on his path to being a high-end NBA draft pick. For one, he is a senior, which puts a cap on how high he will ultimately be drafted. In the past five drafts, Zach Edey is the lone senior to be taken in the Top 10. This was also in what was perceived as the weakest draft in at least a decade. Beyond the upperclassman bias working against him, Lendeborg is also playing for a smaller major team. NBA teams are going to have to work through the talent gap projection.
Perhaps the biggest issue Yaxel will have to work through is his positional projection. Listed at 6’9”, Lendeborg plays a ton of center minutes for UAB. Even though he is incredibly productive , he would likely be slotted as an NBA forward. Without seeing him take on that role somewhat exclusively—and against low or mid-major competition—there is now even more projection scouts will have to parse through.
One could argue, though, that despite those projections, Lendeborg’s production has been phenomenal this year. “Yax” has averaged 17.7 PPG, 11.0 RPG, 4.2 APG, 1.8 BPG, and 1.7 SPG. His ability to be an imposing presence while also playing in various spots is what makes Lendeborg such a bright spot in this class. As many know, rebounding is one of the strongest indicators of future success. He posted an Offensive Rebounding Percentage of 12.2 and a Defensive Rebounding Percentage of 24.4. He draws plenty of contact, as he is credited with 17 “And-1s” and a Free Throw Rate of 45.4.
His defensive metrics are also strong, as he recorded a Block Percentage of 5.3 and a Steals Percentage of 2.8. His strength gives confidence that he can see the court early, along with his experience. Along with the defense, Yax makes good decisions and takes care of the ball. His 2.1 assist-to-turnover ratio is very impressive.
His two-way ability and physicality are what give those who are “in on him” the confidence that he will overcome the smaller conference and positional concerns. It should be noted that he is a low-volume shooter, with only 3.3 threes per 100 possessions. With that low volume, he is shooting below 34% from deep. If he cannot play center, teams would have to get creative with their lineups while having a non-shooting forward.
Yax came in at 32 on our latest big board and was taken 34th on our latest mock. ESPN ranked him 52nd. The Athletic mocked him at 28 in Sam Vecenie’s latest mock draft. Bleacher Report mocked him at 39. The concerns have been enough for outlets with intel to have him late-first at best. With another year of eligibility, Lendeborg could come back to college hoops in some capacity to prove himself against the primary concerns NBA teams have.
Collin Murray-Boyles | Forward/Big | Sophomore | South Carolina | 6’8” | 245
In a similar way, Collin Murray-Boyles is a polarizing player in the same vein as Yaxel Lendeborg. Listed at 6’8”, there are questions that come with CMB’s style of play. He can get to the rim at will, which impacts his three-point volume. So, do we know him for not shooting it? Or do we understand both the ease with which he can get to the rim, and how his interior scoring is a catalyst for South Carolina’s success? NBA teams have real questions about the perceived size/position juxtaposition. The thing Murray-Boyles has going in his favor compared to Lendeborg is that he has shown consistent production across two seasons in SEC play.
The shooting is concerning. Last season as a freshman, Collin didn’t hit a single one of his five three-point attempts. He has stepped up the three-point volume this year, but it is still low volume—just 2.1 attempts per 100 possessions. Murray-Boyles has only converted 9-of-34 attempts (26.5%) from three-point range. It’s worth mentioning, at least, that he has hit over 30% of his open threes. This could indicate an upward trajectory.
Shooting concerns aside, CMB is a force on both ends of the floor. He ranks in the 84th percentile (Excellent) around the rim and ranks in the 86th percentile (Excellent) in post-ups. As the roll man, Collin ranked in the 54th percentile (Good). He is credited with 24 And-1s, produced a Free Throw Rate of 55.6, and has dunked the ball 26 times. Not only does CMB use his physicality to score, but he also has an Offensive Rebounding Percentage of 8.8 and a Defensive Rebounding Percentage of 23.8.
Murray-Boyles has been a very stout and consistent defender throughout the year. Most SEC teams have a stable of big men, and Collin has performed well against the majority of them. He recorded a Block Percentage of 4.7 and a Steals Percentage of 2.9. He moved well enough to have moments defending in space that projects well for some defensive versatility.
One of the best areas of growth Collin showed this season was the leap in (and consistency with) his playmaking. He has had 11 games with three or more assists. That’s as a player that is primarily a play finisher. His 21.1 Assist Percentage is an improvement of a nice-but-not-great 17.1 Assist Percentage as a freshman. The feel and underrated fluidity combined with his forceful frame is something that CMB brings no other prospect has in this class.
It should never go un-discussed that Murray-Boyles is just 19 years old, turning 20 on June 10th. The discussion around his game among the majority of prospect projections feels like that of an upperclassman.
ESPN ranked Murray-Boyles as the 18th prospect. Bleacher Report mocked him ninth. The Athletic mocked him eighth to the San Antonio Spurs. CMB came in at 11th on our latest board and was mocked at 16th. Team fit may impact Murray-Boyles more than most players in this class. While physical, teams are struggling with his height, what position he will defend, and where he is most beneficial on offense. While many draft outlets are in a similar range on his stock, the concept of team philosophy puts him in very different “buckets” for NBA teams.
Bennett Stirtz | Guard | Junior | Drake | 6’4” | 180
If you aren’t among the initiated, allow me to introduce the latest prospect to draw significant buzz. Bennett Stirtz was on my list of potential players to list in this piece before Jonathan Givony dropped his name on national television on March 18th. That shout vaulted his name into this piece. In a weird way, Bennett has overcome some of the hurdles that Yaxel Lendeborg is currently facing. Stirtz is a 21-year-old (turns 22 in October) junior playing for a lower-major school. He doesn’t have elite size, as he is listed at 6’4” and 180 pounds. He also wasn’t in the “look out for this guy” spotlight that was projected in the same manner as players like Nique Clifford, Dailyn Swain, Xaivian Lee, Sion James, or Rasheer Fleming.
His rise to draft community prominence has been remarkable, and he has been built on the back of insane production and efficiency. Stirtz, a player who Tom Thibodeaux would love, recorded a ridiculous 98.7% minutes percentage—which led the NCAA by about 2%! In those minutes, Bennett averaged 19.1 PPG, 5.7 APG, and 4.4 RPG—with shooting splits of 49/39/80. He operates with the ball in his hand a ton, ranking in the 87th percentile (Excellent) in scoring out of pick-and-roll sets. He also operated in those sets 45.1% of his time on the floor—ranking in the 98th percentile. When you include his passing in pick and rolls, he ranks in the 83rd percentile (Very Good). This is important when projecting a guard into the NBA.
When you look at the numbers, you can easily become enticed by his NBA future as a ball-handler, but there are questions about his separation ability. That is where things can be a bit tricky. When you factor in his age and size, how much of an appetite will NBA teams have for him?
What helps him immensely is that he is a fantastic shooter. Bennett shoots over 44% on catch-and-shoot looks. He cannot be left alone, but he is also someone who can hit tough jumpers. When guarded, Stirtz has knocked down 36.4% of his three on 22 attempts. When left open, he has made 52.4% of his 21 attempts. That sort of shooting has been so much fun to watch.
Stirtz has had some fun passes this year, too. He has put up an assist-to-turnover ratio of just under 3.0! His Assist Percentage of 33.8 ranked 35th in all of college hoops. He is also one of just two players with an Assist Percentage over 30 and a Turnover Percentage beneath 13. The other player is Kam Jones, who is largely considered to be a late-first to early-second round player. Compared to Kam, Bennett is shooting more efficiently, rebounding better, putting up better defensive numbers, and is younger.
Bennett Stirtz didn’t show up on ESPN’s Top 100 about 20 days ago, so it’s pretty interesting to see Givony drop his name on a major ESPN segment about two weeks later. Sam Vecenie didn’t list Bennett in his latest mock draft that came out on the 19th, despite noting teams having significant interest in him on his podcast. Bleacher Report did mock him at 35 on his mock that dropped on March 14th. With the tournament starting the day you’re reading this, Bennett Stirtz has a real chance to boost his stock against a Missouri team that will test him in the way NBA teams will want to see.
Curtains
These players are going to tremendously impact the quality of this class, both in terms of the quality of the draft and its historic success over time. There is still plenty of time between now and June. There is a possibility that one of the prospects I listed could end up being a foundational pillar for this class. There’s also a possibility that a player lurking in the shadows could be that pillar. That’s what makes this whole process so much fun. It’s all about trial and error and learning from your mistakes.
Portal Reporting
The portal is in full effect and is growing on a—no-kidding—hourly basis. Last week, I shared some thoughts on Jamichael Stillwell, Josh Harris, and Treysen Eaglestaff. There have been significantly more prospects to enter the portal. I won’t bog you down by throwing out a ton of names; I will keep the three player method going. These may not be “the best available” prospects, but they are my most interesting.
Owen Freeman | Forward | Iowa | 6’10” | 245 | Sophomore
Owen Freeman is a player who I have watched with great interest this season—at times, I liked him as a potential sleeper for this year’s class. While this year didn’t turn out the way my most optimistic hopes envisioned, Owen had a very strong year for a player under the 40% Minutes Percentage threshold. In spot duties, he rebounded well and was a sound rim protector. His three-point percentage wasn’t earth-shattering, but he hit 31.3% from deep on 16 looks. The belief is that the shot is something he is comfortable with, but the shots need to be within the flow of the offense to get the most out of him. With him transferring, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him go to a team that has done well with transfer prospects, and allows him to be a more integral part of a system. For a player of his class, size, and ability, there have already been several reports of interested teams. I would imagine he stays in conference with him being an Illinois native, and play for a team within that region (not necessarily the Illini).
Malik Reneau | Forward | Indiana | 6’9” | 233 | Junior
Not moving too far geographically, Malik Reneau has been one of the larger names to be sucked into the transfer portal. Being that he has been very productive for Indiana, there are likely to be a number of teams lobbying for his services. Malik is a hard-nosed player—a grinder, if you will. Malik has averaged at least 13 PPG over the past two seasons, and around 6 RPG. That sort of productivity at his size is intriguing. He hasn’t been a shooter over his past three seasons. His best shooting year was last season, where he only hit about 33% of his deep balls. Defense is where Reneau has his biggest impact. His strength and length allow him to defend the frontcourt well. He posted a Block Percentage of 2.6 and a Steals Percentage of 2.0. His next team could be interesting. This is purely speculative, but seeing him go to North Carolina would be fun, as they’ve had some success with players of a similar archetype.
Taylor Bol Bowen | Forward | Florida State | 6’10” | 205 | Sophomore
I’ve had Taylor Bol Bowen in second round territory for a couple of months, and I honestly feel like he has been slightly slept on. His counting numbers are not jumping off of the stat sheet in the way some other prospects are. He’s averaged 8.0 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 0.8 APG, 1.0 SPG, and 1.5 BPG this season. His measurables and versatility are the things NBA teams look for, and he is going to be fairly young compared to other transfer prospects. On defense, Taylor posted a Block Percentage of 7.1 and a Steal percentage of 2.3. He was also very active on the glass. His game still has to evolve on offense, but Bol Bowen did shoot over 41% from deep on 5.5 attempts per 100 possessions! If Bowen stays in school, I would love to see him make improvements as a passer and do just a little bit of on-the-ball stuff—even if it’s just 2-3 plays per game. Team fit gets interesting, as most schools will play him at the 4 or 5; Florida State has been the premier “lanky guy” school for so long. Perhaps a team like Alabama makes sense, but there is some overlap on that roster already. Georgia, Missouri, or Florida make some sense, as they will have some departures in just a few months.
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