Sweet Sixteen Roundtable
In advance of the Sweet Sixteen, the No Ceilings crew puts together a roundtable on the NCAA tournament so far and their thoughts on the remaining teams and prospects for the 2025 NBA Draft.
The best basketball month of the year may be winding down, but there’s still plenty of time for excitement. NBA playoff races are heating up as teams approach their final ten games while tanking teams are looking ahead to the players who might be available to them in the lottery.
Much of the basketball world, including a vast Draft Sicko contingent, is locked into the NCAA Tournament. In the midst of the brief wait between the Round of 32 games and the Sweet Sixteen, we gathered the No Ceilings crew to get some perspectives on the tournament so far, as well as the games to come. Without further ado, here is our No Ceilings roundtable on the Sweet Sixteen games and the tournament as a whole.
1. Which player has been the most impressive to you in the tournament so far?
Jam: Walter Clayton Jr. Following his 23-point (4-of-9 3PA) opening round outing against Norfolk State, WCJ refused to let Florida go down against the reigning back-to-back champions. His stellar performance (23 points, 5-of-8 3PA), particularly late in the second half, highlighted his mix of pure shooting, tough shotmaking, and downhill prowess. He continues to showcase his plug-and-play skill set and ability to thrive both on and off the ball. WCJ remains one of my favorite potential draft steals/values.
Rowan: It may be a little out of left field, especially as he couldn’t will Drake to another win, but Bennett Stirtz had a massive showing with Drake. He established himself as a March figure of renown with his upset performance over Missouri, following that up with a similarly great game against Texas Tech. His stupendous scoring and passing plays paced the Bulldogs all season, and his play has firmly slotted in Bennett Stirtz as a potential 2025 NBA draft pick.
Corey: I have quite enjoyed the Walter Clayton Jr. experience. He really struggled throughout most of the UConn game, as the Huskies were clearly trying to make him uncomfortable and get him to move off the ball by sending hard hedges at him, but he was massive down the stretch, hitting some incredibly difficult and timely shots. I love his change of pace, quick burst, and his ability to pressure the rim. You can see his football background when he is attacking downhill. Clayton is a smallish guard, but he’s stocky enough and competitive enough to defend a few positions. He looks a lot like the Payton Pritchard of this class to me.
Nick: I’m going to have to go with Tyrese Proctor for this one. I’ve had him on my board for two years running at this point, but he’s shown the best of what he can be offensively through Duke’s first two tournament games. His shooting from distance, once a major concern for Proctor, has been elite this season, and he’s been on a ridiculous heater in the first two games, canning 13 of 16 triples. Proctor probably won’t end up as a lottery pick like he was projected to be heading into his freshman year, but he can certainly solidify his spot in the 2025 NBA Draft with even average play for the rest of the tournament; if he can keep up anything close to his current heat levels, his draft stock might still have more room to climb.
Metcalf: Carter Bryant has been really fun. His offense has been a little inconsistent, but that’s not shocking, given his role. Where he’s been fantastic, though, is on the defensive end. His versatility, defensive playmaking, and rebounding have been fantastic. There aren’t many freshman wings in this class who move their feet, time their blocks, have the strength, and disrupt passing lanes the way Bryant does. He’s continuing to prove that he’s just a winning player.
2. Which player has been the most disappointing to you in the tournament so far?
Jam: There’s no doubt that R.J. Luis Jr. struggled during St. John’s somewhat surprising second round loss to Arkansas. Huge kudos to him owning the performance amidst some ridiculous and unfortunate online backlash that went too far. I still believe in Luis Jr. being a lottery-caliber prospect and look forward to the reigning Big East Player of the Year bouncing back in a major way.
Rowan: Although his counting stats looked good in each game, I found myself wanting more from Nate Bittle each time I watched him. For a player of his experience and size, I wanted to see more of a takeover in the paint. Instead, after expectedly dominating the smaller Liberty frontcourt, Bittle was seriously harried by the size and athleticism of the Arizona bigs until late in the game. It’s cast a cloud over the intrigue that had been building for me with Bittle over the past few months.
Corey: I think if you’re going to zag against the insane statistical profile that Johni Broome has boasted this year, the warts he’s shown offensively in the tournament can certainly be used as evidence for skepticism. Broome’s lack of touch and creativity on the block has been apparent in both games; he’s missed all seven of his threes, which teams are begging him to shoot, and he’s hit just 36% of his free throws. His scoring has mostly come out of cleaning the garbage around the rim, cuts off their flex stuff, and gaps in the zones. Against Kalbrenner specifically, he looked rushed and overwhelmed by the size disadvantage. It begs the question: How does Broome score effectively at the next level? Is his best role going to just be a smart lunch pail dirty work type bench big? How high do you take that guy? It’s a really interesting case of production vs stylistic projection. He’ll have another tough challenge against Michicgan’s massive frontcourt coming up. It’s going to be interesting to watch if he can right the ship a bit.
Nick: I’ve been stubbornly holding on to most of my Ian Jackson stock all season, so I was quite disappointed to see him get just nine minutes and score just one point in North Carolina’s one tournament game. It wasn’t exactly surprising, given Jackson’s inconsistency all season and limited playing time in recent games, but it was still disappointing. It’ll be interesting to see if Jackson ends up putting his name in the portal sometime soon or if he gets enough positive feedback that he declares for the draft; either way, this was not the ending to the season that he or the Tar Heels wanted.
Metcalf: I still really like him, but Kasparas Jakucionis left me wanting. I really enjoyed a lot of his playmaking, but the ball security was far too sloppy, his shooting was inconsistent, and his defense was all over the place. Jakucionis has still shown me more than enough to be a Top 10 pick, but his late-season slump, culminating with two really sloppy performances, is frustrating. This would’ve been a fantastic opportunity for him to simplify things and execute at a high level to cement himself as a Top 5-7 pick; instead, he inflated some of the concerns with his game.
3. Which player or team has had the best story in your eyes in the tournament so far?
Jam: Baltimore native Derik Queen leading Maryland alongside the Crab Five into the Sweet Sixteen. Baltimore is a city with such a rich basketball tradition, and Queen, a future lottery pick at worst, is an embodiment of it. His blend of toughness, skill, and feel has shone brightly all season, and it hasn’t stopped in March. Queen is my top big in the class and is a legit Top 5 talent.
Rowan: Walter Clayton Jr. once tasted defeat in the NCAA Tournament to Dan Hurley’s UConn Huskies last season. He wouldn’t let it happen again, as he helped steer Florida to a tough Round of 32 victory over the reigning two-time defending champs. Clayton Jr.’s had a slow ascent to his perch as the best player on a top title contender, but now that he’s in a position to deliver a title, his focus has crystalized with top-tier shooting and play. There’s still a lot of basketball to play, but Clayton Jr. looks poised to make this month his moment.
Corey: It’s been lonely on Egor Demin island, but I just can’t quit everything this dude (theoretically?) represents, so it’s been nice to see a lot of the kinds of flashes throughout the tourney that made Egor so intriguing in non-conference play. The playmaking is as impressive as ever, and shots have dropped in this ever-so-small sample. That’s not to say Demin has been Steph Curry (or even Seth); as has been the case all year, though, the volume and confidence in which he shoots is as close to important as the percentages for his future projection in my eyes. I totally understand the flaws, but at 6’9” with his innate tools and in my eyes clear room for growth I just can’t get too down on Egor. He may not be the star primary to hand over 30% usage to, but I think there is a real Lonzo-esque role for him. BYU has been on a roll, and I think if Egor can keep this up through the tourney, he can continue to rehabilitate his stock.
Nick: After tearing his Achilles last season, I was worried about what the future might look like for Terrance Arceneaux, one of my favorite defensive wings to scout from the 2022 high school class. Instead of fading out of the picture, though, Arceneaux has played every game this season and put together his best college season for a once-again dominant Houston team. Kelvin Sampson has once again molded this Houston squad into a title contender, and there are plenty of players on this squad with great stories to choose from for this section. Still, I’ve had a soft spot for Arceneaux for a while now, so even with his limited playing time against Gonzaga, it’s been great to see him playing such a major role for a once-again dominant Houston squad.
Metcalf: For me, it’s this whole Arkansas team making a pretty fun run. This team and players have faced pretty much nothing but criticism all year, and the fact that they’re in the Sweet 16 is incredibly fun. Whether it’s DJ Wagner playing the best ball of his career, Boogie Fland returning from injury, Karter Knox making a leap, Billy Richmond playing like a psycho (compliment), the emergence of their bigs as legitimate offensive weapons, or the potential return of Adou Thiero, it’s all incredibly fun, and the exact storyline fans typically fall in love with during the tournament.
4. Which team has been the most impressive to you in the tournament so far?
Jam: Duke. The team has been connected and hungry all season. They are humming-Flagg looks healthy, Proctor is torching the nets, and multiple players continually step up when needed. They are built to handle whatever adversity comes their way.
Rowan: I had high hopes for the Arkansas Razorbacks in the offseason before they suffered some growing pains in John Calipari’s first season in charge. The team, chock full of underachieving talent, came together at the perfect time without their best player in Adou Thiero to stun both Kansas and St. John’s to get to the Sweet Sixteen. They’ve suffocated teams on defense while having some standout scoring performances of their own, which has made this a fun late-season resurgence for Arkansas.
Corey: I don’t think anything has changed from the college season. When Cooper Flagg is in the lineup, Duke beats the brakes off teams on a nightly basis. Since losing to Clemson on February 8th, Duke’s closest game with Flagg in the lineup has been a 13-point win over UNC. They’re blowing teams out and looking as if they aren’t even breaking a sweat.
Nick: This is Duke pretty easily for me. They’ve been dominant in both of their games, and they’ve shown no signs of slowing down. When their entire roster is connected and firing on all cylinders, as they have been so far, they are going to be nearly impossible to beat.
Metcalf: It’s boring, but it’s Duke. They’re just loaded from top to bottom and have a tremendous mixture of size, athleticism, and skill.
5. Which team has been the most disappointing to you in the tournament so far?
Jam: I was surprised Louisville’s season came to such an abrupt end against Creighton, in a 14-point loss where the team trailed 49-34 at halftime. Their incredible first-year turnaround under Coach Pat Kelsey featured 27 wins, an ACC Tournament title game berth, and the end of Louisville’s five-year NCAA Tournament absence. The team felt poised to become a potential Cinderella, but the slipper just didn't fit. However, the future is very bright for the Cardinals.
Rowan: By a handful of metrics, Louisville was under-seeded and able to make a sneaky run against Creighton and Auburn. Instead, Pat Kelsey’s team was shot out of the gym in their first twenty minutes. It was a deflating thud to the end of an excellent season for the Cardinals, who had a much better showing during conference play. At least Kelsey’s bringing in more freshman talent and returning transfer stars to try to knock this performance out of our minds.
Corey: I know McNeese had a lot of momentum for upsetting Clemson, but I kinda liked that Clemson team. Lakhin and Schieffelin are a strong, skilled frontcourt duo, while Hunter and Zackery are veteran guards capable of getting buckets. Unfortunately for them, McNeese had too much Aura on their side.
Nick: All credit to the Arkansas Razorbacks for playing a great game, but I have to admit that I did not expect St. John’s to be the only 2-seed that did not make the Sweet Sixteen. Zuby Ejiofor put in a heroic effort, but the rest of the Red Storm shot a staggering 14.3% from the floor (9-of-63) and 10.0% from beyond the arc (2-of-20, which was actually dragged down by Ejiofor missing both of his triples). RJ Luis Jr. was the biggest culprit, going just 3-of-17 from the floor, which resulted in him being benched for the final few minutes, and he admirably took the blame on his shoulders in the aftermath; however, this was an all-around effort by St. John’s in this loss.
Metcalf: I still think they have a great shot to win it all, but Florida was incredibly discouraging against UConn. Their free-throw struggles were concerning, and they still barely escaped despite polar opposite shooting performances from Walter Clayton and Solo Ball. The biggest concern, though, was how bad their defense looked. UConn runs some of the most fun stuff in the country, but Florida was constantly lost on defense. There was no communication on switches, rotations were inconsistent, and there were open cutters and shooters everywhere. Florida has the talent to make a title run, but not if they play defense like that again.
6. Which Sweet Sixteen matchup are you most excited to watch?
Jam: Florida-Maryland. WCJ and Derik Queen are two of the top players and prospects in the tournament. How Maryland and Florida respectively decide to defend them will be critical keys to the game. Florida’s collection of bigs (Condon, Chinyelu, Haugh, Handlogten) gives them the size, length, and athleticism to give Queen different looks and a glimpse of the physical tools Queen can expect to see on the NBA level.
Rowan: Auburn versus Michigan. After listing for some of March, the Auburn Tigers have looked to have righted their ship just in time for the tournament. Michigan needed a scare against UC San Diego before grinding out a late win over Texas A&M. Both teams boast a strong frontcourt. Tre Donaldson transferred from Auburn just last season alongside several other crisscrossed connections. Both teams should feel confident about their chances heading into their Friday clash.
Corey: BYU vs. Alabama has the potential to be a scoring bonanza. The over/under is 175.5! We’re going to get NBA prospects with lots of up-and-down NBA-style possessions. I am very ready.
Nick: Florida-Maryland. There will be plenty of great prospect battles in this one, and I’m particularly excited to see what Derik Queen can do against one of the best and most experienced teams in college basketball.
Metcalf: Maryland vs. Florida should be a blast with the experienced guard play and frontcourt versatility. It’ll be a great test for the myriad pro prospects in this game to see how they all hold up against each other.