The 2026 Outcome Window: Bigs
A vital piece of the evaluation process is envision different prospect NBA outcomes. Jam peers into the outcome window of five intriguing bigs in the first of a three-part positional series.
The Outcome Window is one of my favorite exercises and pieces to write. I believe envisioning realistic and creative low, medium, and high outcomes for prospects is a necessary tool when evaluating across all sports. Understanding the major outcome possibilities helps complete the prospect puzzle and significantly affects team building, as different outcomes shape what’s needed to build and sustain a championship team.
This will be the first of three parts, led by the bigs, followed by the wings and guards. Let’s get it started with my favorite big in the 2026 NBA draft, Duke’s Cam Boozer.
Cam Boozer | Freshman | Duke
Low: Domantas Sabonis with better ball skills and shooting
Boozer arguably has the highest floor in the class because of his archetype, consistently elite production, and versatility. When envisioning a high-floor outcome for Boozer, Domantas Sabonis kept coming to mind. I understand how some could see Sabonis with better ball skills and more shooting as a medium or high-end outcome. That speaks to the caliber of prospect that Boozer is.
Both are versatile, physical double-double machines with NBA bloodlines. Although athletically limited, both possess tremendous feel and passing ability. The athletic prowess is more of an issue defensively, where both seek to leverage their size, strength, and IQ to defend on and off the ball. I can see this as a low-end outcome if Boozer doesn’t quite reach the self-creation levels I believe he can.
Medium: Paolo Banchero with less scoring juice, but more feel and shooting
This has long been a comparison for Boozer, and it makes a ton of sense. Both win with a very similar mix of physical tools (size, strength, physicality) alongside ball skills, playmaking, and multiple-level shotmaking. The key differences are rooted in Banchero’s athleticism and more dynamic self-creation compared to Boozer’s higher feel, decision-making, and pure shooting ability.
I wrestled with making this the high-end outcome, and really, it’s a 1A-1B situation with the next player's outcome.
High: Kevin Love with more offensive upside
Love is another double-double monster with limited athleticism that brought three-point shooting, multiple-level shotmaking, and passing feel to excel. He was a perennial All-Star, NBA champion, and future Hall of Famer-a path that is certainly in play for Boozer. Boozer provides more offensive upside thanks to better ball skills, athleticism, and primary playmaking ability.
Morez Johnson Jr. | Sophomore | Michigan
Low: Moussa Diabate with shooting upside down
It’s all about the blend of defensive versatility, activity, motor, and physicality for Morez Johnson to impact both ends of the floor. It’s a profile that aligns with Moussa Diabate, who received the NBA’s Hustle Award and has developed into a vital piece of Charlotte’s frontcourt rotation.
Medium: Montrezl Harrell with shooting upside
This is absolutely another 1A-1B situation where the medium outcome could easily be the high-end outcome, too. Harrell had a productive eight-year career that culminated in winning the NBA’s Sixth Man of the Year during the 2019-2020 season. There might not be a Sixth Man of the Year in Johnson’s future, but the same could have been said about Harrell’s NBA projection. Harrell’s game was rooted in tenacity, energy, fearlessness, and the emergence of his mid-range shotmaking. Many of the same qualities can be used to describe Johnson, who has more shooting potential than Harrell entering the NBA.
High: Isaiah Stewart
Isaiah Stewart is a popular comparison outcome for Johnson, and I’m all for it. A high-end rotation player on a contender that makes his presence felt through physicality, a relentless motor, rebounding, defensive versatility, and capable floor spacing. Stewart’s three-point shooting was based on projectable touch and mechanical indicators just like Johnson’s. If Johnson reaches his high end, providing value as a floor spacer will be a major reason why.
Jayden Quaintance | Sophomore | Kentucky
Low: Kevon Looney
In this outcome, Jayden Quaintance doesn’t hit those NBA All-Defensive Team marks, but he’s still a distinguished defender on and off the ball, a reliable rebounder, and a playfinisher with functional ball skills.
Medium: Less athletic Robert Williams
When healthy, Williams is a game-changing rim protector with defensive versatility and excellent play-finishing ability. That sounds exactly like Quaintance, right down to the medical concerns. Williams should be considered amongst the potential high-end outcomes as well.
High: Jalen Duren with elite defense
If Quaintance reaches his peak, there is a real possibility that he’s a perennial All-NBA Team and All-Defensive Team member. There is no question that he has one of the highest upsides of any big in the class. Ideally, Duren’s offensive role is the blueprint. Thriving as a forceful, athletic playfinisher, setting good contact screens, hitting the offensive glass, and utilizing functional ball-handling and movement skills when the situation calls for it.
The big separator is Quaintance’s monster defensive upside. Although he’s slightly undersized, he has anchor potential thanks to his blend of tools, instincts, and scheme versatility.
Henri Veesar | Junior | North Carolina
Low: Taller Mike Muscala
Muscala logged 11 years in the NBA, mostly as a rotational stretch big with functional ball skills. On the floor, that’s Henri Veesar’s foundation.
Medium: Quinten Post
Post has brought immediate value to Golden State, a team looking to win now, because of his coveted pass-dribble-shoot skillset at 7’0”. He’s started in 49 of his 109 games, including 35 this season. Equipped with a comparable skill set, it’s fair to expect a similar impact, especially against playoff-caliber teams.
High: Kelly Olynyk with better physical tools
A high-end outcome could look like Olynyk, where the pass-dribble-shoot skill set translates alongside the ability to handle more usage (especially on DHOs and short rolls) and to start in the right situations. Taller and longer, Veesar brings a dimension of playfinishing and weakside shotblocking that Olynyk can’t provide.
Ugonna Onyenso | Senior | Virginia
Low: Jeff Withey
Jeff Withey was a second-round pick (39th overall) by the Portland Trail Blazers after establishing himself as one of the top rim protectors in college basketball at Kansas, despite lacking ideal vertical pop. He spent roughly five years in the NBA in a fringe rotation spot but delivered a shot-blocking presence when on the floor.
Medium: Christian Koloko
Before being sidelined by blood clots, Koloko appeared to be a potential rotation player for the Raptors. Like Ugonna Onyenso, he operated as a playfinisher with a large catch radius and mobile shotblocker. If Koloko was able to continue on his Raptors trajectory, it could look similar to Onyenso.
High: Less athletic Moussa Cisse
The Mavs hit on the margins by nabbing Cisse on a two-way deal last year. Although raw offensively and lacking a modern big's skill set, Cisse produced in his role-play finishing-shot-blocking role by leveraging his physical tools and motor.