The Awakening of Jacob Cofie | The Prospect Overview
USC's Jacob Cofie is on the cusp of the cutting edge. Can he emerge as a first-round pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? PLUS: Quick Hits on Caleb Wilson, Thomas Haugh, and more!
I’m a coffee enthusiast. I used to be a big Energy Drink Guy, but when COVID first hit, I didn’t want to have to run into a gas station every day while a mystery virus was tearing through the country. So, I started making coffee at home. Now, I can’t live without it, especially during basketball season. Most days, I set my alarm for 3:20 A.M. The first thing I immediately put into my body is a single gulp of cold brew coffee and some pre-workout. That way, I can sneak in a quick workout, cram film, work on behind-the-scenes projects, get my article going, and cut tape in silence. Once 6:10 A.M. hits, my daughter wakes up, and chaos begins. It’s time for a second gulp of coffee. After I drop her off at school, I go to Panera Bread.
Why? Because I’m a Panera Sip Club member, and a membership gets you a free drink every 2 hours for only $12/month. Panera, if you’re reading this… ‘sup. ;)
Next, I pound an iced coffee while I do more basketball work before I begin The Day Job. Then, on my break, I do more basketball work. So, after that, what do I need to re-focus when I clock back in? More caffeine, of course. Recently, I’ve developed tremendous restraint and usually settle for a single Diet Coke. Once I’m home, it’s family time until the kid gets to bed, and then it’s time for more hoops.
As you can tell, I don’t sleep a lot for most of the year. It’s no wonder I’m such a coffee enthusiast. Anyway, during the solace of my Tuesday morning film session, I was wide awake—more so than normal. The reason for that wasn’t coffee, but rather, Cofie. Jacob Cofie.
Who is Jacob Cofie?
Jacob Cofie is a 6’10”, 232-pound sophomore who currently plays for USC. He started generating buzz during the latter part of his high school days. While playing for Seattle Rotary in 2022 and later Northwest Rotary in 2023, Cofie put together a skill set that intrigued evaluators. He was a long athlete who could rebound, make plays on defense, and had decent shooting indicators. As a senior, he won the Washington Gatorade Player of the Year Award thanks to his stat-sheet-stuffing production at Eastside Catholic School in the Seattle suburbs. Still, he wasn’t the most acclaimed prospect in the world or anything. He finished 91st in the class of 2024 RSCI rankings, and he began his college career at Virginia without a significant level of NBA Draft fanfare.
A hot start changed that. Cofie generated interest with a strong start to his college career, averaging 13.0 PPG on 60.9/45.5/100 splits, 7.7 RPG, 1.7 APG to 0.7 TOV, 2.0 SPG, and 1.7 BPG during his first three outings. A small sample size can make fools out of all of us, though. Cofie remained a stellar rebounder and defensive playmaker; his overall offensive output tailed off. He ended the year averaging a more modest 7.2 PPG on 49.5/24.4/75.0 splits. Still, there was reason to be excited. Coffee’s size, athleticism, and statistical output as a freshman in a high-major conference were nothing to sneeze at. He came out of the gate hot again this year, too, dropping 23 points on Cal Poly while grabbing 10 rebounds, notching two assists, swatting four shots, and nabbing a steal. Are we getting the real thing this time, or is this just another hot start mirage? Let’s dig into it.
Defense
As it stands currently, Jacob Cofie projects to provide most of his value on the defensive end of the floor. Last season, he posted a 3.4 STL% and a 4.9 BLK%. Those are stellar marks for any forward prospect, but particularly rare for a high-major freshman.
That’s a pretty funky list of players right there, but the important thing to consider is that almost all of them eventually got drafted. The exceptions here are Jeff Allen, Kwame Evans Jr. (who is still in school), and Jacob Cofie, who is also, obviously, still in school. Many were first-round picks. Basically, if you hit these thresholds, you’re probably getting drafted, and for that reason alone, it’s worth paying attention to Cofie now.
Cofie’s defensive presence can be overwhelming. He’s not afraid to use his body at the point of attack, and he moves well, making it difficult to gain an advantage over him. His combination of length and physicality makes his man uncomfortable. This manifests in suboptimal looks at the rim, dribble-pickups, and turnovers. He also generates a lot of his blocks by simply swallowing up his man around the basket. He’s an eager helper, too. He’ll come over to swat a shot or dig into the rock when ball handlers let their guard down in order to generate a strip. When he closes out, he generally stays on balance, and he always has a hand up to prevent an uncontested jumper from going up on his watch. In total, Cofie is a versatile defender who will positively contribute to the turnover battle.
Still, there’s a lack of refinement that shows up from time to time. He doesn’t always sit down in the most technical defensive stance. He gets extremely handsy on the ball rather than playing long. His eagerness can get him into trouble, too. Cofie fouled quite a bit (7.8 times per 100 possessions) during his freshman season at Virginia. While defensive playmaking production and fouling often go hand-in-hand, players like Josh Minott, Jalen Johnson, and Tari Eason were big-time foulers in college, and none of them topped 7.0 fouls per 100 possessions. I also don’t believe he moves as functionally or as explosively as those three players.
It feels weird to say, but Cofie is going to have to make improvements on this end. When he’s guarding the best players in the world, he will need to exercise a greater level of discipline with regard to his technique. That said, a core tenet of my draft philosophy is that you’re always better off aiming to refine a capable, ambitious player than trying to draw new skills out of a player lacking competence. Cofie has the tools, and more importantly, he’s proven he can produce. His length, strength, agility, and instincts give him a path to be an incredibly impactful defender at the NBA level.
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Rebounding
Before we fully move over to the offensive side, let’s talk about rebounding! It’s everyone’s favorite exciting thing to talk about and watch highlights of! LET’S GOOOOOO!!!
Cofie is a serious contributor on the boards. Last season, he posted a 9.1 ORB% and a 19.1 DRB%. Relative to the final pre-draft season production of long-term NBA forwards, he slots around the 65th percentile as a rebounder. Again, that becomes all the more impressive when you take age into account. Cofie’s physical traits help, obviously. He gets off the floor well with both his first and second jump, and he has long arms. But on top of that, Cofie has a great blend of tenacity and timing. He wants to go up and grab the ball, and he knows when to do it. This allows him to high point the ball effectively on both sides of the ball, even when the paint gets crowded. As he continues to fill out his frame, he should only get better in this department. Plus, rebounding tends to be a safe scalability bet, making this another box that Cofie checks.
Offense
So now, the question becomes, “Does Jacob Cofie have the juice on offense?” One of the first questions I always ask myself when scouting a prospect is, “How does this player score on an NBA floor?” For Cofie, he’ll likely operate most in a play-finishing capacity.
Cofie is an above-the-rim athlete. Last season, he dunked 21 times, which is a good mark for a player who played 20.8 MPG. He thrives in the open floor, where his long strides and athleticism give him a massive edge over the competition. In a half-court setting, he can pick his spots as a cutter and convert as a roll man. His coordination and lift make him a potent lob target. And while Cofie struggled from long range as a freshman, his indicators are decent. He took 4.0 threes per 100 possessions last season, and he made 75% of his free throws on good volume—given his age and size, that’s a runway to become a respectable floor spacer.
Still, play finishers, particularly non-big man play finishers, are becoming more of a rarity in the modern NBA. The free-flowing, ball movement-oriented offenses that are taking hold across the association have raised the “acceptable skill level” baseline across the positional spectrum. This is where I have questions about Cofie. Digging through his Synergy data backlog, he’s almost always been a play finisher. Let’s look at the play types that made up over 10% of his shot selection over the years.
2024-2025 at Virginia:
-Spot Up, 23.9%
-P&R Roll Man, 20.4%
-Cut, 19.6%
-Offensive Rebounds (Put Backs), 13.0%
2023 with NW Rotary Rebels 17U:
-Cut, 20%
-Spout Up, 19.3%
-Transition, 18.4%
-Post Up, 10.8%
2022 with Seattle Rotary 17U:
-Cut, 21.5%
-Transition, 18.9%
-Spot Up, 18.5%
-Offensive Rebounds (Put Backs), 12.1%
-Miscellaneous Plays, 10.6%
Simply put, the teams Cofie has played for throughout his career so far feel better off with him off the ball than on it. That’s not a total death sentence, as a guy like Will Richard has managed to find minutes early in his NBA career in that capacity.
That said, Richard is the exception, not the rule. The median pre-draft season NCAA usage rate for college forwards who stick in the NBA is around 24.7%, with a median assist rate around 13%. Last season, Cofie’s USG% was 20.9% and his AST% was 11.2%. Then, there are his limitations as a driver. Cofie posted a 43.1 eFG% on drives last season. He’s upright and awkward with his dribble, both limiting his pop and making him easy to bump off his line. He’s not totally out of the game on this front, but he appears to be behind where he may need to be in this present moment. So, does he have the ball skills to take on more usage?
It’s very possible. While Cofie is unlikely to ever call his own ISOs or make highlight reels with flashy ankle-breaking dribbles, he’s not bereft of feel or will. The “plain basics” are there. He’s not one to stop the ball, and he generally does a good job of keeping things humming when the ball is skipping around the perimeter. Still, two plays caught my eye in his opening match-up against Cal Poly. One was an intermediate read, where he hit Chad Baker-Mazara in the weakside corner from the slot to punish the help on a tag. The other pass saw Cofie run off the line before he made a slick dish through a relatively tight window to Ezra Ausar for a jam. Statistically, it’s also worth noting that Cofie had an even assist-to-turnover ratio last year. If nothing else, Cofie is competent, and he knows what not to do.
Conclusion
Jacob Cofie is definitely interesting. His length, agility, lift, and processing ability allow him to be an effective defensive and low-mistake offensive player. Projecting him out is honestly difficult for me at this point. I don’t believe he has the strength to function as a standard, stand-alone big man in the NBA. As a result, it is absolutely imperative that he rounds out his offensive skill set. He’ll likely need to be at least respectable as a shooter. If Cofie can add some polish to his dribble game and continue to make good passing reads, particularly on the go, that would go a long way.
I know it’s fun to get super declarative early in the draft cycle, but I’m not that guy, pal. Cofie is a “wait-and-see” for me, but he’s one of the premier “wait-and-see” prospects in the NBA Draft world. He’s teetering between “player on the cutting edge of basketball” and “play-finishing relic that you don’t see as often at the four-spot.” Guys who are this big, athletic, and productive don’t grow on trees. Even if he doesn’t fully blossom as a handler, passer, and shooter, he could carve out a path as an innings-eater. The skill bar is just so high right now that limited on-ball players who aren’t centers and aren’t knockdown shooters aren’t highly coveted. There’s a chance Cofie is more in that mold. But if Cofie finds a level of consistency from long range while continuing to develop his on-ball chops, he could be an exceptionally valuable NBA player. I know it’s an opening game against a mid-major program, but some of the flashes he put on tape against Cal Poly made me wonder if his time at USC could awaken something in him. Get him on your radar now, because if the latter comes to fruition, he could be a name to know come June.
Quick Hits:
-It’s hard not to love Caleb Wilson. The 6’10” UNC freshman put everything I wanted and more on tape in his first tough college test against Kansas. He showed his explosiveness on the glass, made some pristine passing deliveries, and used his blend of length and instincts to disrupt plays on the defensive end of the floor. The question with Wilson has long been his shot, as he’s prone to shooting a hard ball from distance and is a bit undersized for a true center. Still, shots like the mid-range turnaround jumper he sunk against the Tar Heels point to real touch. Some guys are worth the patience. A hard-charging, quick-thinking mega-athlete like Caleb Wilson is a case where I can stomach the jumper not being NBA-ready. I’m a big fan.
-How about Thomas Haugh’s debut outing against Arizona? While the Gators came up short, Haugh’s outing showed why I remain bullish on him relative to consensus. At 6’9”, he’s a confident shooter, he always has the floor mapped, and he’s an extremely aggressive, physical player. Defensively, he was eager to make plays on the ball. I get the reservations, as he’s an older prospect who doesn’t change directions with the greatest of ease on defense. But players this big, productive, intelligent, and competitive find roles at the NBA level time and time again.
-While all eyes were on Cameron Boozer last Tuesday night, the progression we saw from Texas’ Dailyn Swain was worth highlighting. The 6’7” junior has always been a good defender and an impressive offensive creator for his size. However, his timid nature and poor results from beyond the arc have always made me more of a skeptic. On Tuesday night, we saw a big stride in the right direction. Swain got up career-high-tying five three-point attempts and made two of them. The nature of the shots impressed me, too. Two of them were pull-ups, which will go a long way in elevating his on-ball equity, and a third one saw him come off a screen into a jumper at the top of the key, which he hit. A career 81.6% free-throw shooter, Swain has long shown a semblance of touch. If he can continue to take threes with confidence and hit them at a respectable clip, he’ll have the makings of a wonderful two-way player.
-It’s always important to be careful when dealing with early-season games against subpar competition, but Robert McCray V’s 17-assist outing against Alcorn State was mesmerizing. For those unfamiliar with the 6’4” Florida State senior, here’s the rundown—he’s a hyper-athletic guard who broke out at Jacksonville two years ago. There, he took on gigantic usage loads (29.0 and 31.6 USG rates), but still rocked rims, rebounded well, and scored with efficiency. He also put his tools to better use on defense last season. One of his biggest issues is that his passing has been up and down. He could force things through tight windows or miss open teammates. I was fascinated to see how he’d play with more talent surrounding him, and he did an awesome job. He routinely punished help, made advanced reads more consistently, and slung some pretty passes through tight windows. He’s a name to keep an eye on.
-Colorado has some dudes. Isaiah Johnson is tiny at 6’1” and 170 pounds, but he can hoop. The lefty embraces contact downhill, he’s speed downhill, and he’s comfortable pulling up in the mid-range and behind the arc. I’m excited to see how he rounds out his game in the coming years. I also continue to be intrigued by Bangot Dak, a hyper-mobile 6’9” hybrid big man who moves exceptionally well. He can finish above the rim on offense, and he’s agile enough to contain much smaller players on the perimeter defensively. He’s willing to shoot, but the results haven’t come yet. If the shot becomes a real thing, he could be an intriguing bet when his time comes.
-Belmont’s Sam Orme looked great out of the gate. The 2025 No Stone Unturned prospect showed off a lot of what put him on my radar in the first place. The 6’9” redshirt sophomore made sharp connective passes, showcased a quick release from three, finished above the rim, bullied mismatches inside, and used his length to act as a disruptor on defense. The interesting development here is that he had more drives and on-ball creation opportunities than I recall him having in most games last season. While the results were mixed, the flashes were there, and he ended his season opener with four assists to only two turnovers. If he can be a genuine dribble-pass-shoot guy at 6’9” while knowing how to defend, watch out.
-Owen Aquino has once again caught my eye as an interesting gadget player on the margins. The 6’8”, 230-pound big man from High Point may lack height, but he might be able to compensate for it through his motor and skill. He nabbed three steals and two blocks in the Panthers’ opening game against Furman. He was all over the floor on defense, protecting the rim, making plays in passing lanes, and effortlessly switching onto smaller players. Offensively, he registered two dunks and two assists, showing both his floor vision and functional athleticism. If you squint, you can see some Jonathan Mogbo in him. I’ll be monitoring his production to see if he can keep it up.
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