The Clear Path for Tomislav Ivisic | The Prospect Overview
Evaluating Tomislav Ivisic, and his potential path to the 2025 NBA Draft and possible role in the NBA.
When evaluating a player, one of the questions I like to ask myself is: “Does this player have a clear path to an NBA role?” Let’s say there’s an interior player who can finish and block shots, but he’s 6’8”. He doesn’t have great ball skills, and he doesn’t space the floor. Maybe he can switch a little bit, but he’s not a hyper-disruptive force on the perimeter. What does that look like in an NBA context? You’ll probably need a big man who can shoot and protect the rim in order to accommodate those shortcomings on both ends of the floor. How many of those guys actually exist? Additionally, you’ll need shooting at every other position on the floor. Will an NBA coach want to compromise their spacing to play a four who doesn’t have much juice beyond their finishing? Probably not. The path for that player is murky.
Conversely, other players get to walk down a much clearer path to an NBA role. For this reason, I believe Illinois’s 7’1” freshman, Tomislav Ivisic, has been one of the more undervalued players throughout this draft cycle. Let’s get into why I’m bullish on certain elements of his game scaling up well, and why there’s reason to believe his shortcomings might not be so bad after all.
The Offensive Value Proposition
Tomislav Ivisic might be the most underrated offensive value proposition in the 2025 NBA Draft. He’s really, really skilled, and I’m not sure we’ve fully appreciated that. Let’s start with his shot. Among NBA big men who’ve stuck in the last eight years, their median pre-draft season three-point volume was 1.7 threes per 100 possessions, and the median efficiency was 28.1%. This year, Ivisic took an astounding 9.9 threes per 100 possessions and made 35.7% of them. It’s not just that Ivisic is a really accurate marksman for a big man, it’s that it is exceptionally rare to find someone his size who launches this many threes. Plus, volume tends to be a great indicator of future efficiency. We’re dealing with a super high-end “floor spacing five” prospect here.
The tape makes the numbers all the more exciting. Ivisic is ready to launch off the catch. He does a good job of having his hands ready and knees bent prior to receiving the ball. The speed of his release bodes well for his shot’s NBA translation, too. He’s not a guy who has to bring the ball down with a deep dip before going into his shooting motion. Instead, he’s able to keep the ball pretty high and get into his release much quicker than most his size. Add in the height of his shot’s apex, and he’s comfortable shooting over closeouts, too. Per Synergy, a majority of Ivisic’s catch-and-shoot threes were classified as “guarded,” and he made 36.1% of them.
Between the numbers and the film, it’s not just reasonable to believe that Ivisic’s shot could translate to the next level, but it should border on an expectation. Now, think about what that opens up for an NBA team. Having a big man who can space the floor creates additional lineup flexibility. Have a defensively oriented wing that needs some additional room to operate? Ivisic has your back. Plus, given the amount of playmaking required of modern centers (think short roll, DHO, delay), having a big man who can knock down a triple goes a long way in keeping defenses honest. The fact that Ivisic projects to be a real-deal shooter who actually draws closeouts is significant. What makes it even better is that he has the passing skills to further accentuate these traits.
Ivisic had a 15.8 AST% and a 1.41 assist-to-turnover ratio this past season, both of which grade out in the highest tier of big men prospects. Sure, the basic, “I’m kicking it out to a shooter when I’m double-teamed on the block” stuff matters, and that’s here. But again, it’s the modern functionality of Ivisic’s game that has me so intrigued. He’s dynamite as a short roll passer whether he’s finding an open shooter in the weakside corner or a hard-charging cutter for a dunk. He’s comfortable operating handoffs and sees the floor well in that setting, occasionally catching defenses off-guard with more advanced reads than most big men are capable of making. He can wire bounce passes to cutters through tight windows. Ivisic can also use his length to generate advantageous angles for his deliveries, too. It’s all here. Every pass that an NBA offense could plausibly ask for out of a center, Tomislav Ivisic can make—and he generally does so while avoiding turnovers.
The last thing I want to touch on here is Ivisic’s interior finishing. While his skill set lends itself more to the perimeter, I think it’s at least worth nothing that he’s still been really good inside. Per Synergy, he’s made 80.5% of his halfcourt rim attempts this season. His length makes it easy for him to finish dunks off rolls and dump off passes. He’s also got a decent handle for a big man when attacking a closeout, so there’s a bit of self-creation in there. His patience, touch with both hands, and post footwork help him to convert on non-dunks, too. While it’s not the most fascinating element of his game, I think it’s important to note that he has other ways to score, and he has things to offer inside the arc.
In Defense of the Defense
The biggest concern about Tomislav Ivisic is whether or not he’s going to be up to scratch on the defensive end. The shortcomings are clear. For starters, his 4.0 BLK% is a super low mark for a guy who played the five. The success rate on “true centers” with that minuscule of a block rate is…not great. Sure, schematically, Illinois leaned quite a bit on Morez Johnson for rim protection, but the number still should’ve been higher. It’s not like Ivisic a quick-as-a-cat, nimble mover who was switching out onto an island so often that he just wasn’t around the basket enough. He’s sort of a clunky mover in space, actually. As a result, he’s near the rim a lot. His biggest issue is that he tends to keep his hands down far too late against drivers. He’s also not particularly strong, so he doesn’t swallow up smaller players with his chest. If opponents get him off his feet, he doesn’t have an easy second jump to get back into the play. There are real issues, both tactical and physical, at play here.
Still, I think Ivisic can get to a level of respectability. I do believe he processes the game well. There are moments when he makes timely rotations to prevent clean looks inside. While he’s not the fastest in terms of ground coverage, he generally knows where to go and has a basic understanding of concepts such as nail help on the perimeter. He’s not clueless out there. There have also been games where he’s done a good job of using angles in drop coverage to prevent opponents from getting clean looks inside. Whether he uses his length to keep the ball handler at bay or prevents an angle to pass it to the big, he can be something of a rim deterrent, if nothing else.
His length goes a long way, too. While he didn’t block a high number of shots, he did make a lot of dudes miss. Per Synergy, he held opponents to 38.5% on halfcourt rim attempts this season. When smaller players drive at him, his length and fluidity prevent him from getting put on skates. As they get inside, his size and use of angles often forces them into difficult, high-arching shots. Against post players, he remains disciplined and stays grounded when he needs to. As a result, he keeps himself out of foul trouble. While Ivisic may not be a guy who can soar for monster rejections time and time again, his size and feel could be enough to keep him above board. Plus, given his frame, it feels like there’s a lot of low-hanging fruit here. That doesn’t necessarily mean it will get picked, but hand placement is an easier thing to fix than being undersized or being too far behind the feel curve.
Conclusion
I understand why Tomislav Ivisic might not be everybody’s cup of tea. Go through a list in your head of guys who got played off the floor in the playoffs over the last several years. You’re probably thinking of a lot of smaller players and wings who can’t shoot, and a lot of big guys who can’t defend. It’s scary, and I have to concede that. Still, I’m holding out hope. If nothing else, Ivisic did a good enough job of stopping players from scoring inside that there’s something to work with. Development doesn’t stop when a player gets to the league, and a team will need to put effort into improving his habits in drop coverage. If he doesn’t do that, it’s going to be a serious ceiling inhibitor.
With that being said, I’m confident in Ivisic from a size and feel standpoint. If he can get better at leveraging his length inside, it would be a very meaningful development. Plus, we’re being presented with a serious surplus of offensive value. It is exceedingly difficult to find guys who launch threes like Ivisic pre-draft, particularly on his efficiency and with the functionality of his mechanics. He’s also an outstanding passer who can make advanced reads and precise deliveries without getting overindulgent. I always say that at a certain point in the draft, you have to bet on something. Depending on team context, I’d be willing to bet on Ivisic earlier than most. He’s a “guaranteed contract” tier prospect for me.
Quick Hits
-People will always remember Texas Tech’s comeback win over Arkansas, but 6’6” freshman Karter Knox should be incredibly proud of how he played. Knox scored 20 points on 6-8 shooting. He went 4-4 from three, demonstrating deep range off the catch and comfortability pulling up from distance. Still, he’s a strong, physical player who can get downhill with the bounce to finish above the rim. Knox can be rough around the edges in terms of rebounding and defensive consistency, but he has a lot to work with from a talent and build standpoint. I can’t wait to see what’s next for him.
-Shoutout to Maxime Raynaud for playing in the NIT until Stanford was eliminated. The 7’1” big man dominated smaller players during those two games, scoring 22 points in each contest while swatting nine total shots. Raynaud’s jumper (34.7% from deep on 9.8 threes per 100 possessions), ability to attack closeouts, and dominance on the glass have allowed him to steadily climb boards this season. I wish he were a better rim protector, and I wish he had fewer egregious turnovers, but he’s one of the better offensively-tilted center bets in this class.
-I was really impressed with Jaden Bradley in Arizona’s final outing of the year. The 6’3” guard is so tough and physical on both ends of the floor. His ability to pressure the rim, make good decisions, and get up in his opponent’s business makes him an intriguing player to watch as he has one year of eligibility remaining. If he can take and make more threes next year (32.1% on 2.1 per game this year), he could be one of the more interesting guards in that class.
-Santa Clara’s Elijah Mahi caught my eye on their way out the NIT door. The 6’7” junior has a powerhouse build at 220 pounds, but he’s much more skilled than you’d expect for a player with that body type. He can bully his way to spots inside, but he also uses clever angles and deliveries on passes out of ball screens. He’s pretty shifty, too. Thanks to his ability to get to his spots and feel, Mahi ended the year averaging 2.7 APG to 1.6 TOV. The swing skills for Mahi are going to be his finishing (47.9% on halfcourt rim attempts) and his defense. He can be flat-footed at the point of attack and disengaged off-ball. Still, Mahi’s strength, size, savvy, and skill make him an intriguing name to watch.
-With Southern Methodist bowing out of the NIT, I wanted to tip my hat to Matt Cross, who has been one of my favorite prospects to watch these past few years. The 6’7” graduate makes an inescapable impact away from the ball, with a 19.2 DRB%, 2.4 STL%, and 2.2 BLK%. Plus, he really found his footing as a shooter this year, going 38.2% from deep on good volume. He remains one of my favorite bets in two-way range.
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