The Confounding Case of Karim Lopez
Understanding the strengths, weaknesses (and areas for improvement) for Karim Lopez, the best international player in the 2026 NBA Draft.
Karim Lopez entered this year’s draft cycle as the clear favorite to be the first international prospect selected come draft night, a campaign he has continued to bolster with impressive production for the New Zealand Breakers of the NBL.
In a draft class filled with unique story lines and a headline-grabbing race for the number one pick, Lopez is living perhaps the most historic story of them all, on the brink of becoming the first Mexican-born player to be selected in the first round of the NBA draft. His selection would make him only the second Mexican-born player drafted behind Eduardo Nájera in 2000. Given his current trajectory, Lopez is well on his way to becoming the greatest Mexican-born player of all time.
Despite his notoriety as a top international prospect, Lopez has been one of my most exciting yet confusing evaluations of the 2026 class. To generalize, he’s a productive and competitive player with exciting physical tools, but his streaky shooting and defensive concerns are difficult to ignore.
To understand Lopez’s production, we must examine his context; unlike many of his draftable peers who are thrust into high usage roles as collegiate freshmen, Lopez is essentially a role player for an underperforming NBL team. Lopez is attempting just 8.7 field goal attempts per game and averaging 11.2 points, 6.1 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.2 steals, and 1.0 blocks in 25.3 minutes per game. While not spectacular, his counting stats highlight his potential to impact every aspect of the game both offensively and defensively.
While a bit of a short-sighted approach, there simply aren’t more than a handful of players in the 2026 draft that can make these plays, and Lopez is one of them.
The term “jack of all trades, master of none” sums up Lopez well; he has shown flashes or better of doing a bit of everything, shooting 31.8% from beyond the arc, being a great rebounder, with intriguing moments as a passer, while generating steals and blocks. He has clear dribble-pass-shoot potential with impressive size and strength, especially considering he is one of the youngest players in the class.
Still, at this point, Lopez doesn’t have a lone projectable skill he will be able to “hang his hat on” once he enters the league. Prospects like these pose inherent risk without any skills to fall back on; their value lies in them potentially taking significant developmental strides to both build out new skills and drastically refine their current ones.
Even some of the most surprising picks of last year’s NBA draft had at least one specific skill that excelled at:
Yang Hansen (Passing)
Cedric Coward (Shooting + Defense)
Egor Demin (Passing)
I don’t want this to be an anti-Lopez article; in fact, it is exactly the opposite. However, contextualizing his role in the NBL and lack of high-level competency with any singular skill is crucial in attempting to understand who Karim Lopez is.
Shooting
Given Lopez’s lack of skill speciality, much of his potential to be a “do-it-all” wing hinges on his ability to be a threat from the perimeter. Lopez’s shooting has been the tale of two halves, opening the season with stunning efficiency, shooting 40% on 3.2 attempts through the first 14 games. While on limited volume, Lopez’s hot start continued to solidify his place among the draft’s top-end talent.
However, his start has since proved unsustainable, with his efficiency quickly declining over his last 13 games, shooting just 22.5% on 3.0 attempts per game. His collapse as a perimeter shooter has certainly slowed his momentum up draft boards and raises a new set of questions about the projectability of his offensive role if he isn’t at least a competent shooter. In that same breath, one of these admittedly tiny sample sizes will be an outlier; maybe these last 13 games are just a fluke cold streak or vice versa, that his hot start was a peak he will never reach again.
Realistically, Lopez likely sits somewhere in the middle of his dual outlier samples this season, but if his poor shooting continues the rest of the year, it will be hard to find optimism moving forward.
Lopez’s shot diet has remained consistent, where he is almost entirely an off-ball shooter, taking 70-of-85 attempts in catch-and-shoot scenarios (31.4%) and shooting 5-of-15 (33.3%) on dribble jumpers.
Looking backwards, Lopez shot 30.3% on 66 attempts last year, having already taken 85 attempts in just two more games this season, an increase in his three-point volume has clearly been a priority for both Lopez and the Breakers staff.
From a mechanical perspective, Lopez has a solid foundation for his size and age, but has plenty to improve. I’ve been most impressed with his commitment to attempting difficult shots, especially out of catch-and-shoot situations, consistently trying quick-release and no-dip shots. While he hasn’t knocked them down at a high rate, his confidence shooting in tight areas and refusal to be deterred by contesting defenders is certainly a silver lining for his long-term shooting development.
One of his biggest mechanical faults begins with his right arm, but more broadly the power transfer from his lower half to his upper half. While Lopez begins his shooting motion with a natural flow, he finishes it by rushing his release. This manifests itself in an unnatural amount of force coming through his right arm as he hurries his shot, causing an intense flick on his follow-through, along with his right arm swinging out to the side after he shoots it. His upper half is rigid and unnatural, which also causes his right arm to finish flat. Developing a more balanced transition of power from his lower half to his upper half would prove beneficial and allow for a more natural flow to his form.
Lopez will likely never be known as a “shooter” and thankfully he doesn’t have to be, at the very least Lopez need’s to able to force competitive closeouts, something that a minor uptick in efficiency would achieve, if he can sit around that 34-36% range.
Driving
Lopez’s shooting outlook is directly correlated with his driving ability; without becoming a semi-respectable shooter, he will never be able to unlock the most exciting part of his game. With only 28 possessions as a driver this season, essentially averaging one per game, it might be surprising that it’s this aspect of Lopez’s skillset I’m most intrigued by (perhaps irresponsibly).
While he isn’t tasked with self-generating paint touches very often, good things happen when he does, shooting 57.1% (8-of-14) and drawing eight fouls.
Lopez plays with an enamoring blend of physicality, touch, and pace, especially when he attacks closeouts and gets downhill, where his strength creation is on full display. He combines shoulder bumps with his stride length and wingspan to both create space and put defenders on their heels, allowing him to finish around the rim against the length and strength of NBL defenders.
It’s in moments like these that his intersection of size, finesse, athleticism, touch, and physical tools overlap and create this beautifully unpolished player, bursting with potential while still clearly growing into his body. To be blunt, there aren’t many 6‘8”, 225-pound 18-year-olds who are self-generating paint touches and who can impose themselves with such controlled physicality.
A handful of Lopez’s drives result in poor shot selection, putting up unnecessarily rushed attempts, yet he generally plays with great poise and patience as a driver and ball-handler. He consistently plays under control, highlighted by his effective decel-Eurosteps and comfort level going through the chests of defenders.
The few possessions that Lopez self-generates as a ball-handler can only be described as funky and in a good way, with a unique stop-and-go cadence that remains effective despite how it may look on tape. His handle is fairly rudimentary, but it has continued to improve over the season, and given his strength creation, a flashy handle is not a necessity. Lopez absolutely loves his spin move going right, something that has proved difficult to defend given the sheer amount of space he is able to eat up. With one spin, he can effectively get to the rim from almost any distance inside the arc. I would also add that Lopez is comfortable driving either direction, with 16 drives to the right and 11 going left. The duality of his driving directions is a bit uncommon, especially in younger prospects, although he is still heavily reliant on finishing with his right hand.
As intriguing as Lopez is when he gets downhill, he’s not without his faults, posting six turnovers in 28 possessions. He struggles to create separation, especially against smaller defenders, and consistently tries to split gaps that he simply can’t fit through. While Lopez is athletic, his lack of burst and ability to change speeds limits his effectiveness as a ball handler and even shows itself on the defensive end.
Lopez’s offensive floor rests on his ability to create efficient opportunities as an off-ball scorer, shooting 62.1% in transition and 76.29% as a cutter, he has a budding sense of off-ball movement and navigating open space, although it’s something he really hasn’t focused on expanding this season, where he’s looked very content sitting on the perimeter waiting for a kick out rather than cutting into the play.
His off-ball potential has been hampered by his focus on perimeter shotmaking. With greater emphasis within an NBA system, I think Lopez is well positioned to be an effective back cutter and rollman. I would also note that Lopez is 5-of-6 on field goal attempts as a roller, a piece of his game that has been vastly underdeveloped given his skillset and an area I would expect his usage to grow upon entering the NBA.
The major downside to Lopez’s off-ball role and current skill set is that long stretches of game time can pass him by without him making any significant impact. He has a knack for doing his damage in bunches, where he will be omnipresent for multiple possessions before fading away for the next couple of minutes of game time.
Rebounding
A significant portion of my excitement with Lopez stems from his motor, especially as a rebounder, where he consistently crashes the glass from the perimeter, fully embracing the nature of fighting for rebounds in the NBL, an experience that is undoubtedly more physical than that of his NCAA counterparts. He is the second leading rebounder for his team and pairs his natural instincts with active hands and great length. He also reads the floor well after grabbing boards, consistently hitting the right player with an outlet pass that fuels a transition opportunity.
Frankly, Lopez just has some real grit to him; it’s not uncommon for him to get pushed or tripped to the ground, but he always bounces back up and usually tries to get a bucket on the next possession. While his body language might look lackadaisical and his engagement can fluctuate, more often than not, Lopez plays hard. On most plays, he’s crashing the boards, running in transition, and bringing an energy that clearly stems from a deep competitive spirit.
Playmaking
Lopez has made significant strides as a playmaker from just a season ago and is certainly trending in a very positive direction in terms of being an adept connective passer. The game has clearly slowed down for Lopez, and he is less frantic with the ball in his hands, resulting in a solid 1.5 AST/TO ratio over his last seven games and 1.29 on the season. While not particularly impressive, it highlights positive growth for Lopez, given his 0.94 AST/TO ratio in 25 games last season, along with similar struggles across his earlier FIBA and Joventuts career.
While he has his fair share of head-scratching turnovers, he also has moments of clear experimentation, pushing the boundaries to understand his limits. Continuing to grow as a playmaker, especially in ball-handling situations, given his potential to collapse defense, would unlock the next level of Lopez’s connectedness. When the game is at a standstill, it’s much easier for him to read the floor. What it looks like when Lopez is in motion and is forced to react quickly is less certain.
Defense
Lopez has improved significantly as a defender this season, yet it still remains one of his biggest question marks as a prospect. Specifically, his struggles with guarding on the perimeter, against players attacking downhill, when he is forced to quickly shift direction and speed. Lopez often turns his hips at the first sign of being outmatched and attempts to run alongside the driver. This is evident in Lopez’s high foul rate, with 83 personal fouls, the fourth-most in the NBL.
When Lopez is able to stay in front of offensive players, he is extremely disruptive, walling up and altering shots with his length and bothering shooters with strong closeouts. Attacking players must meet him with significant momentum or try to blow by him; otherwise, he is extremely difficult to move or seperate from.
Lopez’s processing has continued to sharpen as the season has progressed, making quicker decisions as an off-ball defender, especially as a rim protector. While he isn’t always the fastest to diagnose actions, when he does accurately track plays, he provides great defensive rotations and bothers shooters at all three levels with his length and size.
As a prospect, Lopez stands at a unique crossroads, while he has the physical tools and statical production to become a good defender, the tape doesn’t always back it up. My optimism for Lopez’s defensive outlook has fluctuated over the course of the season. However, his ability to generate blocks and steals, paired with his physical tools, motor, and age, makes me very optimistic that Lopez will at least become an average to above-average defender.
While not his current reality, Lopez does have the potential to develop into an intriguing and versatile defender, with the strength to defend the paint and enough speed to hold his own elsewhere on the court.
Outlook
Lopez falls into a scary grey area, with the size and tools of a traditional 3-and-D prospect, without being a consistent shooter or defender... This contradictory style of prospect is naturally hard to get excited about, with his weaknesses being far more obvious than his strengths.
With that being said, while I don’t expect Lopez to become an All-Star, I do believe he will bring consistent value once he enters the NBA. His production in a competitive professional league at just 18 years old is being underappreciated, and there are only a handful of players in this year’s draft with Lopez’s physical tools who have proved to be able to pass, dribble, and shoot at his level.
While potentially delusional, I’m blinded by Lopez’s potential overlap of physicality and touch on both ends of the floor: the ability to post-up, while also operating the pick-and-roll, and being a rim protector while also guarding the perimeter and generating steals. It’s this rare intersection that I believe Lopez can capitalize on, and it’s what makes him worthy of a lottery pick.