The Enigmatic Egor Demin
Egor Demin has become one of the more polarizing prospects in the 2025 NBA Draft Class. Stephen breaks down his game and projects his path. PLUS: Transfer Portal notes!
Like many of us at No Ceilings, I am a huge wrestling fan. I grew up during the height of the Monday Night Wars, watching WWE (then, WWF) take on WCW. I was more of a WCW guy—Rey Mysterio quickly captivated me. I even went trick-or-treating dressed as Rey during his filthy animal run. I knew WWE (again, then it was WWF; I’m old) existed, but Eric Bischoff’s show had the majority of my attention.
When WCW was bought out by the WWE (I’m stopping), I quickly became interested in this new show. Names like Stone Cold Steve Austin, The Rock, HHH, and The Undertaker were the big names that I obviously became a fan of, but Jeff Hardy was a guy I was sold on. The funky outfits, the hyped-up entrance, and the beautiful, high-flying move set all had me hooked. By the time Rey Mysterio made his debut, Hardy was coming out of the tag team scene into the realm of singles competitors. His moniker—”The Charismatic Enigma”—was a fitting description for him (in more ways than my 12-year-old brain knew at that time).
Jeff Hardy speaks about this openly, but he battled with some addiction issues while his company was beginning to push for him to become one of the big names in the industry. That sort of polarization of talent vs. production had become one of the more sticking points when it came to Hardy’s name—almost more famous than the legendary Jeff Hardy vs. Undertaker match that launched Hardy into stardom.
For reasons that are FAR different than what Jeff Hardy experienced, Egor Demin has become an enigma in this year’s draft class. Egor Demin came into the season with some legitimate hype. In November, Demin was ranked as the 12th-ranked prospect on the IPO’s that our own Corey Tulaba posts. He came in at #5 on the No Ceilings first Big Board, and was ranked 4th, 4th, 7th, and 15th as later editions would be released. ESPN mocked him at 8th in February, and is now down to 10th on the latest Big Board update. These mocks typically are heavily based on intel, and can be slow change. Jonathan Givony went so far as to open Demin’s blurb with “Demin in a polarizing prospect with extreme strengths and weaknesses accentuated by roller-coaster moments in Big 12 play”. Sam Vecenie opened his Mock Drafts with Demin coming in at 26, and stated “This is higher than I would have Demin”, and would state that his feelings were not congruent with what scouts were saying at the time. During his last Big Board release in February, Vecenie only moved him up to 21.
The diametrically-opposed views of Demin are among the most prevalent in magnitude compared to any other player. But, why? Why would there be such contrast in evaluations and projections for a 6’8” ball-handler with feel who just turned 19 at the beginning of this month? That leads us to the point of today’s piece: Breaking down the game of the enigmatic Egor Demin.
The Buildup
As I just stated, Egor Demin is a 6’8”-6’9” point…forward? Guard? Swing? This is one issue with Egor’s projection: there isn’t a precise positional fit. In a world that celebrates “positionless basketball” for the most part, it can still sort of be a problem to be a man without a country, so to speak. Regardless of the positional dilemma, Demin committed to play for BYU—a team that has recently made good use of NIL as a recruiting tool.
Demin came to the Cougars after playing for Real Madrid in Spain, and is originally from Russia. Looking to follow in the footsteps of players like Andrei Kirilenko and Timofey Mozgov, Egor came to the States to increase his stock and interest to land higher in the pending draft. His commitment is (and was) viewed as one of the most significant in the history of the BYU basketball program, as he had a huge summer for Real Madrid in the U18 ANGT Championship. He logged 26 points, 11 rebounds, six assists, three steals, and two blocks. With his success overseas, it was not all that surprising that many found themselves intrigued by the tall, skilled teen phenom.
To this point, Egor has performed as follows:
BPM- 4.8
Offensive Rating- 103.2
Usage- 25.9
Effective Field Goal Percentage- 48.4
True Shooting Percentage- 51.2
Offensive Rebounding Percentage- 1.4
Defensive Rebounding Percentage- 14.5
Assist Percentage- 34.9
Turnover Percentage- 23.8
Assist/Turnover- 1.9
Block Percentage- 1.8
Steal Percentage- 2.4
Free Throw Rate- 29.5
Dunk Percentage- 92.3 (12/13)
Free Throw Percentage- 67.1 (51/76)
Two Point Percentage- 54.8 (74/135)
Three Point Percentage- 27.6 (34/123)
Threes Per 100- 9.2
In terms of offensive production, only Braden Smith and Xaivian Lee are performing similarly. It’s worth noting two things here. One, they are both older prospects than Demin. Secondly, they are both significantly shorter. When you figure in the steal and block percentages, there is no other player in college hoops that has the sort of efficiency and effectiveness that Egor has. The notable deficiencies in his metrics involve shooting and turnovers. Egor is one of only 35 players to have an Assist Percentage of at least 34. He is one of two freshmen on this list—joined by Mekhi Connor from Sacred Heart. His turnover numbers will likely be balked at, but he is joined by other notable 2025 NBA Draft Class prospects Kasparas Jakucionis and Danny Wolf as players with a usage percentage of at least 25 and a turnover percentage over 23.
On the shooting efficiency, there are some concerning numbers. To put a positive spin on the shooting, Egor is one of 29 players in college basketball who is shooting 9+ three pointers per 100 possessions with a usage percentage of at least 25 and a BPM of at least 4.5. This puts him in a class with Dylan Harper, Tre Johnson, Kam Jones, and Maxime Raynaud. The bad news? He has the worst three-point percentage of that group, shooting 27.6%. The shot isn’t pretty (we’ll look at it in a moment), and his free throw percentage of 67.1% doesn’t instill a ton of hope of that getting any better. I would be prepared to see Josh Giddey’s recent shooting explosion as a reason to believe in Demin, as both are larger playmakers.
The Offense
This is where we’re going to have some fun in the scouting with Egor. The highs with his offense are incredible. The lows are…well, low. Our friends at Synergy grade Demin out in the 24th percentile in points per possession (0.803), which is below average. For avid prospectors, you’re likely aware that the best of Egor’s offense comes from creating with the ball—predominantly for others.
While operating in the pick and roll, Demin ranks in the 65th percentile as a scorer. When including passes, his percentile skyrockets to the 81st percentile—which grades out as very good. This is where we will start with the film.
Pick and Roll Scoring
This clip against Utah encapsulates the good and bad that comes with the Egor Demin experience. Demin (#3 in blue) starts with the ball toward the top of the key. He waits for his teammate, Keba Keita (#13 in blue), to set the screen to his left. Demin drives left and looks to pass the ball to the rolling Keita. The concerning part of this play is that Egor gets the pass to Keita tipped.
Luckily, the ball comes back to Egor, who is able to regroup after Trevor Knell (#21 in blue) recovers it. Egor gets the ball again, and gets back into the two-man game with Keita. Egor drives right and pulls up at the elbow to hit the pull-up. You’ll notice the form on the pull-up is a little unconventional at the base, but it goes in clean. The shooting motion and consistency from Egor are topics of conversation, and you can see why from clips like this.
In this clip against West Virginia, we’ll see Egor come in off of the break and put the pressure on the defense. As our guy comes across halfcourt, Fousseyni Traore (#45 in white) sets a faux screen that Demin goes around. After rejecting the screen to his right, Demin hits a crossover and looks to take his man to the block. A quick up-fake freezes the defender, which allows our guy to get into his man’s chest and hit the post bank shot for an And-1.
This level of handle and slipperiness is what makes Egor hard to handle once he has an advantage. The constant poking and prodding gives him the ability to find openings and exploit them. It allows him to score, but Demin is most comfortable when setting up others.
Pick and Roll Passing
This clip takes us back to the matchup against Utah. We’ll start after some motion takes place, but brings us to where the ball finds its way back into Egor’s hands. Egor gets the ball at the top of the key and runs the two-man game with Keita. As Egor is driving to his right, his eyes are on his big man rolling to the basket.
The entire defense is moving with Egor, as expected, but they are moving to Keita in anticipation of the pass. Demin sees this and is aware of where his teammates are—even when he isn’t looking at them. That includes Dawson Baker (#25 in blue) in the right corner, who Egor finds for an open three.
We can see a bit of the same in this clip against Arizona State. We’ll start this play with Egor getting the ball just inside halfcourt with nine seconds left on the shot clock. Egor drives right but quickly changes direction to his left, right into Traore setting a screen. While this play is different in concept, direction, and progression, there is a similarity here with the previous play.
It’s the use of Demin’s eyes. As he is driving left, Egor is looking to the two teammates on the strong side of the court. That keeps the defense heavy to the left side of the court. The ball goes where our guy isn’t looking, which is into the hands of Richie Saunders (#15 in black) on the right wing. Saunders catches and does what he does at a 43.7% clip: hit the three.
Egor’s eye manipulation is up there with anyone’s. With his size, it’s moments like this that tickle the imaginations of scouts and evaluators. So, what’s the downside with Egor’s game?
Turnovers
Egor begins with inbounding the ball to Keita, and gets the ball back quickly. Now, Iowa State is a pretty good defensive team and understands the impact Demin brings to his team. The Cyclones pressure him after he gets the ball. This pushes our guy to the halfcourt line, and the double team forces him to pick up the ball. Demin throws a rainbow pass across the court to his teammate.
Egor runs to get the ball back at the top of the key, where he gets the ball. Keita runs back to screen Demin to his left. He drives and is followed by Keshon Gilbert (#10 in white). The Cyclones blitz Demin after the screen is set. This forces our guy to pick up the ball and try to move it to the rolling Keita. Gilbert knows the pass is coming and tips the ball, forcing the turnover by Demin.
The scouting report on Demin spells out that he favors driving to his left—which he does that 78.6% of the time. You’ll see that Iowa State’s Tamin Lipsey (#3 in white) is in position to play the pass to the strong side corner, which is a contributing factor in Demin looking to pass over the top of the defense.
We saw a similar pass get tipped in the first play in this piece, and it happens again here. This is a major part in Demin having a turnover percentage of almost 24%. For a player of his size, it would be assumed that passes over the top would be an automatic advantage. He’s capable of hitting on these passes, but his tendencies are heavily leaned upon. He also is at a strength deficit for the time being, so he isn’t able to naturally create separation “in a phone booth”. The defense is able to negotiate breathing room with him for now.
Shooting
The shooting isn’t where it needs to be. We touched on the percentages, but it is nice to see him putting up over nine threes per 100 possessions. You can’t make what you don’t take, right?
In this clip against Utah, we see Egor pass the ball to Keita. Egor runs down to the baseline and waits for the down screen set for him. As the screen is set, our guy does a good job or running his man into the screen and creating separation.
Demin gets the ball handed off to him at the top of the key. He takes the handoff and gets into his shot immediately off of motion. The shot doesn’t look that bad. The knees bend and toes both point in—nothing crazy at all. The ball does dip to his knees, and then the arms come up. The release is high, and the follow-through looks good. He gets good lift. Ultimately, the ball is short and hits the front of the rim. That’s a typical outcome for him, unfortunately.
Shooting off of handoffs can be tricky. Demin does rank in the 53rd percentile on those handoffs on 17 credited possessions. However, he has only converted on just 1-of-7 threes within that play type. Maybe he is better off the catch?
He is better, but he is only 27.8% from deep off of the catch on 72 credited attempts.
In this clip against Arizona State, we see Demin running the pick and roll with Richie Saunders. He does connect with Saunders on an over-the-top-of-the-defense pass. Saunders gets the ball and draws the defense to himself. This leaves Demin completely isolated at the top of the key. Saunders sees our guy and feeds him.
Egor is fairly deep beyond the three-point line—certainly at NBA range. Nevertheless, our guy goes right into his shooting motion. Of course, he dips the ball and rises into his shot. The shooting base does appear to be a bit narrow from this angle, which might be why the shot falls a little short. The slim base and distance likely result in the miss. Again, it’s great that Egor is getting shots up. What this typically means with poor shooters is that they are working on their shot. Despite work likely being put in, Demin is a sub-28 % shooter from deep. On unguarded threes, he is just 6-for-25—24%.
The Defense
On defense, you can look at the numbers and be a bit optimistic about how he competes on that side of the floor. Insert typical defensive metric caveats on how they can be misleading here: Synergy ranks Demin in the 78th percentile on points allowed per possession, which grades out at very good. While those numbers can be skewed, remember the steal percentage of 2.4 and block percentage of 1.8.
Use of Length
Like the clip we began with, we have another clip that shows the good and bad that exists with Demin on defense. In this clip against Arizona, Demin is matched up against Trey Townsend (#4 in red). While they are in the paint, Trey goes into the body of our guy and gets a nice opening to shoot over him. The shot doesn’t drop, but Townsend is able to collect his own miss.
Trey goes back up for another shot attempt, but this time, Demin is able to use his length to tip the shot off its trajectory. Demin gathers the block and gets BYU back on offense. The sheer length allows him to shrink passing lanes and shot angles. Listed at 6’9”, it is rumored that his wingspan is around 7’ feet or so. We’ll perhaps know more about his measurables come combine season, but his tools are what make some of his faults more tolerable to evaluators.
Egor’s length isn’t just a factor for block shots, but he can actually cover a bit of ground when helping away from the ball. We’ll see that in this clip against West Virginia.
Our guy is assigned to Toby Okani (#5 in white) while the Mountaineers run an action to get the ball into the hands of their best player, Javon Small (#7 in white). Small gets the ball on the right wing while Okani is in the right corner. Okani sets a faux screen for Small, but Demin stays in drop and prevents Small from driving.
Small picks up his dribble and gets the ball poked out, which allows him to dribble back out into the corner. The scouting report on Okani shows that he is shooting almost as poorly as Egor, at 29%. This means that Egor can sell out from his deny positioning as Small breaks down his man and drives to the elbow. As Small drives, Egor steps way out to double Javon.
As the dribble is picked up, Demin swipes his long arm out into the passing lane, which allows him to steal the ball and push the break. On the year, Egor has over 30 steals, which is why his steal percentage is solid.
So, with the defense looking nice, where does Egor need to improve?
Poor Process But Survives
Plays like this one against Iowa State are a bit too common for a player that has a lot of potential. To be upfront, this play results in a miss by Iowa State. That is the outcome you want at the end of the day. However, the process shown leaves a lot to be desired.
Egor is defending Keshon Gilbert on this play. The key thing I’d like you to take away is the position he is defending: point guard. If this is what he will defend in the NBA, this play is concerning.
Keshon brings the ball from the baseline and out to the right wing. Keshon is on the wing while his teammate, Milan Momcilovic (#22 in white), gets into position to screen to Gilbert’s left. Look at how Egor rejects the screen before it is set. The crossover puts our guy on his heels and gives Gilbert a ton of space. Gilbert recognizes how Demin is dropping back to show the drive some respect. This allows him to cross back to his left, and pull up for a wide-open pull-up three.
The shot misses, but in no way due to anything done by Demin. Remember how I said to remember the position Demin is defending? This dribble move is super effective and not all that complicated. NBA guards are going to do significantly more than the talented senior guard, Keshon Gilbert.
Curtains
Egor Demin has plenty of supporters for him going pro, as indicated by his rankings by Jonathan Givony of ESPN. There are also plenty of detractors, as shown in Bleacher Report’s latest mock draft that has Egor not getting drafted until pick 19. This sort of dichotomy is a clear representation of Demin’s polarization.
The bottom line is that Egor is likely to go in the first round should he stay in this class. NBA teams will only go so long without taking a young 19-year-old, 6’9”, versatile playmaker—even if he is likely viewed more of a project now than he was at the start of this year’s cycle. For me, I have Demin 23rd on my personal board. It would be easy to see a team in the back part of the first round willing to be more patient in Demin’s development.
Later picks typically mean better teams. For instance, Indiana, Miami, and Orlando are in that 23rd pick range. This would allow Egor to learn a system, grow accustomed to NBA speed, and work on his body at a pace that would be conducive to his development. If he is able to do that, you would be more likely to see Egor’s gravity more to the positive side of that “production vs. potential” discussion.
Portal Reporting
If you felt a sudden and disruptive shift in the atmosphere, that was the transfer portal bursting back into full force! This means we can already, officially, start getting excited for next year’s draft class! I want to touch on a few names that have been sucked into the portal, patiently waiting for some program to pluck them out:
Jamichael Stillwell | Forward | Milwaukee | 6’8” | 225 | Junior
Stillwell is a player that I mentioned a few times this season—in both quick hits and on the pod. What stands out for Stillwell is his motor. For a player of his measurables and rebounding numbers, my assumption prior to firing up the film was a small, unathletic, mid-major big man. I was pleasantly surprised to find an athletic forward who plays with all-out energy. His biggest area of improvement is his shooting. He’s only 28.6% from deep on the season. Fit will be interesting for Stillwell. From Georgia, it would be interesting to see if the Bulldogs snag him, as they have been pretty active in attracting transfers—such as De’Shayne Montgomery. He’ll be someone I’ll be watching with great interest next season, as he was in my Top 125 this year.
Josh Harris | Forward | North Florida | 6’8” | 210 | Freshman
Harris was a player I’ve seen live for North Florida on a few occasions. His name popped early, as the freshman impress with his efficiency, strong frame, and poise. I found that Harris suffered positionally playing for a smaller school, as the Ospreys used him at the 5 a ton. Hopefully, he’ll decide to play for a program that will use him more as a forward—the position I believe is naturally what he is fit to play. He’ll likely need to up his three-point frequency, as he only shot 2.7 threes per 100 possessions. He’d also need to be more involved in moving the ball, as he was used more as a play finisher for North Florida. Still, he is very young and has the tools to be very impactful on both sides of the ball. The Florida Gators would be fun to see, as they are one of the better portal-pluckers in all of college basketball, and it’s worth noting that he is from Florida.
Treysen Eaglestaff | Wing | North Dakota | 6’6” | 190 | Junior
Eaglestaff is a player that has been briefly discussed on our pod this season, but has largely been an under-the-radar wing playing for North Dakota. Averaging just under 19 PPG this season, the junior shot almost 36% from deep this season and is a career 37% three-point shooter. He has a solid handle, which has allowed him to be an effective on and off-ball option for the Fighting Hawks. He is a bit slight of frame, which has led to his rebounding on both sides of the glass being underwhelming. Wherever he goes, I would love to see him mix it up and be a bit more physical to help increase his pro potential. His decision-making is pretty solid, so it would make sense for a high major program to involve him in a number of roles. From North Dakota, there are plenty of high major programs in Big Sky country that could lobby for his services. A team like Colorado State could make some sense with players on the wing looking to move on after the season.
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Stephen never stop using wrestling references!!
The “passing gene” is something you can’t teach and very few have.. Demin has it, and I think he can figure out the rest; shooting, change of pace to leverage his gifts at the pro level. He’s gonna be great.