The False Complexity of Kwame Evans Jr. | The Prospect Overview
The False Complexity of Kwame Evans Jr. | The Prospect Overview
Maxwell makes the case for Kwame Evans Jr. as a first round pick! PLUS: Dayton vs. George Washington in the Mid-Major Game of the Week and Quick Hits!
Feature: The False Complexity of Kwame Evans
Over the last few drafts, it seems that more evaluators have begun to latch onto a relatively simple concept—if a guy is good at basketball, don’t overthink it, just draft them. Christian Braun wasn’t the most consistent shooter, but he was a good athlete who knew how to play on both ends and won a national title in college. The Denver Nuggets drafted him, and he immediately carved out a role on a title team. Jaime Jaquez’s game didn’t fit neatly into a box, but he’s already solidified an everyday spot in the Heat’s rotation. While Trayce Jackson-Davis may not have had the best measurables, he was a high-level finisher with playmaking polish. This season, he’s been one of the best rookies in the NBA.
Given the recent history of good college players with size and athleticism managing to find roles at the next level, I’ve found myself perplexed by the lack of buzz surrounding Kwame Evans Jr. The 6’9” Oregon freshman hasn’t posted outrageous counting numbers. Injuries to more experienced players and the subsequent return of those players have seen his role shift and minutes fluctuate. He’s played minutes at center, which likely won’t be his NBA position given his relative lack of height and strength. If he’s a forward, his struggles from beyond the arc are more of a concern.
It’s easy to look at the circumstances surrounding Evans’s season, say, “hmm, I don’t know what to make of it, it’s complicated, let’s see what he does next year.” But I’m going to push back on that. I think Kwame Evans is a 6’9” dude with a solid level of athleticism who knows how to play basketball. The areas he’s struggled in are areas where NBA teams have helped recent prospects improve. In a draft like this, give me Kwame Evans Jr. in the first round. Today, we’re going to look at what Evans does well, and why the false complexity narrative surrounding his draft stock should be pushed aside.
Defense
This is where Kwame Evans Jr. has been the most impactful. On the ball, he’s done a great job against smaller players. He’s light on his feet. Add in his length, and Evans does a tremendous job of staying in front of the ball. Opponents are leery of testing him on an island. He can use his hands to quickly poke the ball loose or quickly pop off the floor to block a shot in the mid-range. His fast reaction times allow him to rack up steals and blocks at a high clip (3.8 STL%, 6.6 BLK%). Evans also displays a healthy level of discipline for a freshman, rarely getting beat because of reaching or jumping himself out of position. Even when he does leave his feet, he has the bunnies to hop right back up a second time. The biggest improvement area for him is his strength, as big men are able to knock him around and get where they want in the paint when matched up against him.
Off the ball, there’s just as much to love. Evans displays good anticipation skills, and again, he’s quick to react. He monitors the game well and generally knows what’s happening on the court. When he needs to make a rim rotation, he’ll get there before springing for a contest. He’s also able to get into passing lanes for steals and deflections thanks to his long arms and fluidity. His motor enables him to get out in transition and take away the easy stuff. Evans knows the scout, too, and rarely closes out improperly based on the opposing personnel. He knows who he can stop short on, but if he has to bust his tail to chase a shooter off the line, he has the size and speed to do it. His strength does bite him off ball on occasion, mostly when he has to meet opponents at the basket. He can struggle to stay vertical when someone drives into his chest. But again, we’re talking about a college freshman here.
In total, we’re dealing with a 6’9” prospect who exhibits a polished understanding of the game while possessing NBA physical tools. He’s one of five high-major freshmen with a DBPM over 4. Guys his size who are that good on defense during their first college season, and still manage to not be a total nothing on offense, typically end up having good NBA careers.
Here’s the icing on the cake—Evans isn’t just a nothing on offense. He has an intriguing, multi-faceted skill set tailor-made for the modern NBA.
Connecting the Dots
The NBA is a star-driven league. Given that there are only 24 players selected to the All-Star Game each year and roughly 450 players on standard NBA contracts, though, most guys don’t get to be stars. As a result, they don’t get to have the ball as much. When one of these players does get the rock, it’s imperative that they can make the right decision and, generally, do so quickly. Players need to understand the set that their team is running, but also have the acumen to make sharp decisions when plays break down or defenses are scrambling. During his time at Oregon, Kwame Evans has proven capable in this respect.
When the Ducks are operating a straightforward set, Evans clearly knows the play. That’s a low bar to clear obviously, but he takes things to another level with his knack for knowing the right pass to throw. His feeds are accurate and delivered at angles that make them difficult to intercept. He has no problem making the “one more” swing. But even when Evans doesn’t get to be premediated in his decision-making, he can make intelligent reactive choices. He’ll recognize where help is coming from and punish it or take note of which open teammate would require the most difficulty to close out. Some players are much better within the strict confines of a heavily structured offense, and others are more comfortable going with the flow. But Evans is able to operate in both settings.
As it stands currently, Evans Jr. averages 1.5 APG to 1.1 TOV and has an AST% of 12. Before we even get into the other elements of Evans’s game, that combination of playmaking, ball control, and his size is relatively uncommon. Over the last decade, only 11 high-major freshmen have stood over 6’8”, posted a 1.3-to-1 A:TO, an AST% above 10. Seven of them went on to be first round picks, and Amir Coffey made it to the NBA later on. Of the remaining three, Alex Karaban and Harrison Ingram could still get to the NBA. Steffon Mitchell’s 2018 season at Boston College is the lone exception. Still, this is what we call, “a positive indicator.” Plus, I would argue that Evans’ has an athletic edge over those who failed to meet the first-round mark.
Putting the Ball in the Basket
While Kwame Evans can make good things happen with the ball in his hands, a big part of his appeal is that he’s not a guy who gets hung up on needing the ball. Looking at the Synergy data, his three most common play types (in order) are spot-ups, acting as a pick-and-roll roll man, and putbacks. When he gets to the NBA, it won’t be a major adjustment for Evans to scale back to more of an off-ball role. He knows how to play winning basketball within a team concept.
Let’s talk about the putbacks, though. Don’t let Evans’s skinny frame fool you. He’s tough, physical, and wants to compete. His 8.6 OREB% is a good mark for a forward prospect, and his 61.1% conversion rate on putbacks makes that statistic all the more meaningful. His willingness to sneak in or fight for an offensive rebound before generating a high-percentage look is a winning trait. Plus, as he continues to grow stronger, he’ll become even more effective in this respect.
Where Evans will need to develop most is as a three-point shooter. There’s some good and some bad here. Let’s get the negatives out of the way. Right now, Evans is a 28.8% shooter from long range on moderate volume. Aesthetically, there is some work to be done, as it’s a lower release. When the ball gets up to his face, he starts pushing the ball equally up and out, making his shot easy to hinder. As a result, he struggles mightily against closeouts. Evans has gone 11-20 on unguarded catch-and-shoot threes this year, but he’s a measly 3-28 on guarded attempts.
It’s not all bad, though. Evans is an 82.2% free throw shooter on the year. BartTorvik lists him as 9-19 on his “far 2s” this year. He’s clearly not lacking touch. Also, he’s scaled up better than expected. I used Synergy to dig into his pre-college shooting numbers. During the 41 games tracked across his last EYBL and high school season, Evans shot 21.2% from three. To go up in competition and improve 7.6% is nothing to sneeze at. This shows that Evans is on an upward trajectory. Plus, the fact that he’s deadly on unguarded attempts at least means defenses can’t completely ignore him.
Now, here’s where Evans goes from, “alright, I can live with that,” to, “wait a minute, this is downright exciting!” Guys like this Evans from this last class, basically, “young guys who are a jump shot away” have been doing great in the G League this year. Let’s take a look at the chart!
Granted, we are still dealing with small samples (particularly in the case of Phillips, who has only appeared in nine G League games), and this is only a list of three players. It’s not a guarantee that these numbers will hold up in the NBA. But it’s encouraging! If you went back to the day before the draft and showed these numbers to every front office, I bet every single one of these players would get picked higher than they did. If a team is willing to be patient, it appears as if, “guy with size and feel who just needs to devote time to becoming a knockdown shooter” is a great investment.
Conclusion
When Kwame Evans Jr. comes up, I have a hard time wrapping my head around things. Okay, sure, he played a position he won’t play at the next level for a while. Yeah, he’s got to figure out his shot. But simultaneously, there seems to be a sentiment among the consensus that this is a weaker draft class. So if I’m going to draft a guy with some flaws, why wouldn’t I take Kwame Evans Jr.? And are we really going to get hung up on these flaws, anyway?
Kwame Evans Jr. is 6’9”. He’s a smart defender who knows where to go within a team concept. He moves well rotationally, he can slide his feet with the best of them, and he can swat shots at the rim. On offense, he’s totally selfless. He’s able to operate effectively within a system, but savvy enough to exploit openings when things break down. His toughness allows him to make hustle plays and finish inside. The alleged hangups are his strength and his shot. But he’s a young player with the frame to get bigger. As it pertains to his jumper, the recent returns on players with size who are otherwise well-rounded have been encouraging.
Maybe it’s not complex at all. Maybe Kwame Evans Jr. is just a first-round pick.
Mid-Major Game of the Week
Welp, we had a good run. The Mid-Major Game of the Week had been a back-and-forth, down-to-the-wire battle for the past few editions of this column. Unfortunately, that streak came to an end on Tuesday night when the Dayton Flyers romped the George Washington Revolutionaries, 83-61.
DaRon Holmes II was the star of the show, finishing the night with 25 points, 12 boards, four assists, and two blocks. Obviously, it was a potent offensive outing, but it was Holmes’s defense that stood out most on tape. George Washington simply could not get good looks when he was on the floor. Holmes was making himself big at all times, limiting the Revolutionaries from getting into the paint. Holmes was a tremendous deterrent on the interior and routinely forced his opponents to settle for less-than-ideal looks. He’s continued to improve on the glass, grabbing nine defensive rebounds in this game, and he’s now averaging 9.3 RPG over his last twelve outings.
On offense, there was some good stuff, too. His soft hands and lift make him a good lob target. He grabbed three offensive rebounds and kept the ball high to generate easy putbacks. He hit a nice mid-range pull-up in the second half, continuing to showcase his range. At a hair under 40% from deep on the year, opponents are learning that they cannot sag off the junior big man. Holmes also continued to show growth as a playmaker. Prior to this season, I regard him more as, “a guy who can pass” as opposed to a “good passer,” but that’s changed this year. He still makes the occasional quick whip dish, but he’s cut down on his mistakes, posting a positive assist-to-turnover ratio for the first time. In this game, there were times when he demonstrated appropriate patience and found a better look for himself or someone else. He’s better processing double teams and help, and it’s doing wonders for himself and the Flyers as a whole.
There are still some concerns to be had about Holmes. At the NBA Combine, he measured at 6’9” barefoot with a 7’0.5” wingspan and a 9’1” standing reach. He weighed in at 220.8 pounds, a mark more common among forwards than big men. His screens can leave something to be desired, and he can get bumped off his spot around the basket. Still, I can’t help but be enamored with his growing skill set, savvy, and defensive versatility. If he gets stronger, and there’s no reason to think he can’t, he’ll be able to play in just about every ball screen coverage effectively. At worst, when I look around the current NBA, he feels more intriguing to me than most “third centers.” Holmes should at least be valued as a second round pick. A strong pre-draft process where he improves his physicality could get him into the first.
6’7” junior Nate Santos had a great game for Dayton, too. After two years at Pitt where he rarely saw the floor, his breakout season has been a revelation for the Flyers. He finished the night with 17 points, five rebounds, and four assists. With Santos, it’s all energy, all the time. He’s constantly flying around the floor, making hustle plays, and slashing hard to the basket. He made some long, sharp passes, and knocked down three of his four attempts from long range. An NBA projection is still tricky, as he’s a skinny, high-octane four, which you don’t see much at that level. While he’s 44.3% from deep on the year, he has a low release that has me struggling to buy in. If he can fill out his frame and continue to prove he’s a legitimate shooter, he could find himself in the Portsmouth mix next year.
Sharpshooter Kobe Brea had himself a night. Dayton’s 6’6” senior went five-for-nine from deep, including a near logo-range make in the second half. He can convert even the toughest of looks from behind the arc, and his minutes as a de facto point guard at times last season have developed his ability to read the floor. That said, he’s always been sort of a, “and what else?” proposition. He’s a subpar athlete by NBA standards, doesn’t offer much inside the arc, and he’s a shaky defender. If a team falls in love with the shooting, a Summer League invite wouldn’t be out of the question.
On the George Washington side of things, I was most interested in Garrett Johnson. At 6’8”, he’s a 41.5% shooter from deep on good volume. He also has an incredible background, having gone through nine rounds of chemotherapy before playing his first college basketball game this season. It was an off night for him, as he scored five points on 10 shots. Still, he’s a player who can move into his shot with great positional size. He’s physical on the glass, too. Johnson is having a great season, and I’m interested to see what he looks like next year after getting a full season of college experience under his belt.
Darren Buchanan Jr. led the Revolutionaries in scoring with 13 points. The 6’7”, 235-pound freshman has an, “oh, that guy looks like an NBA vet” frame and a filled-out upper body. He nabbed eight rebounds, thanks in large part to his physicality. His toughness and determination helped him to get to the basket. Buchanan also used his length and size to be disruptive on the defensive end. He’s a sub-30% three-point shooter who takes less than one triple per contest, so expanding his range will be the biggest thing to get him on NBA radars. In the meantime, he offers a little bit of everything else, and is worth monitoring as a long-term proposition.
Next week’s Mid-Major Game will be Colorado State vs. Boise State! Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter/X to vote in future MMGOTW polls!
Quick Hits
We will be dropping a consensus Big Board shortly! As a result, I decided to use this Quick Hits section to highlight some of the recent risers on my personal board. As a reminder, No Ceilings + subscribers receive access to each of our individual boards. You can upgrade your subscription in the upper righthand corner of this page.
-Zaccharie Risacher has claimed the number three spot on my board. As the season’s sample size has increased, it’s hard to imagine his jump shot is anything other than legit. Add in his size, youth, and defensive impact, and there’s a safe floor for him. I’ve also been pleased with how much better Risacher has done playing through contact and guarding other players his own size on the defensive end. Improved finishing, ball handling, and passing over this final stretch could get him to the top spot on my board.
-I have a very hard time imagining a scenario where Dalton Knecht isn’t a Top 14 player in this class in a re-draft ten years from now. He’s got a great body, he’s a high-level athlete, and he can score at all three levels. As the year has progressed, he’s done a better job of leveraging his scoring gravity to hit the open man, and he’s been smarter about getting off the ball faster when he can’t create an advantage. I know the defense isn’t great, but given his tools, I can’t imagine him being too far below water when it’s made a focal point for him.
-Last week, I wrote about Baylor Scheierman and what an NBA role player looks like. Basically, most guys in that sixth through eighth man role tend to be over 6’5”, shoot, and take care of the ball. Two others who fit that bill but with some additional physical advantages—Kyshawn George and Alex Karaban. George is lighter and more agile, whereas Karaban has a bigger body and some real strength to him. I’m keeping a closer eye on both of them moving forward.
-Cal’s Jaylon Tyson is a guy I can’t help but root for. The 6’7” junior wing blends some old-man game funk with genuine above-the-rim bounce, making him one of the most enjoyable watches in college hoops. His defensive metrics are solid but understate that he’s a consistent communicator. While Tyson has his moments as a passer, and he’ll likely have less of a playmaking burden at the NBA level, I would like to see him bring down his turnovers. He’ll occasionally make a frustrating forced pass, and his 1:1 ATO is a bit discouraging for someone in their third college season.
-Coleman Hawkins has worked his way back into my second round. Illinois’s 6’10” big had been in the midst of a great defensive season, but he’d sputtered out of the gate offensively. That’s changed, as he’s scored 13.6 PPG on 46.8/43.5/82.4 splits over the past ten games. He’s also been far less erratic as a decision-maker, posting his best assist-to-turnover ratio yet. The size and skill has always been there for Hawkins, it’s just been a matter of refinement and consistency. We might be getting there!
-I noted Ben Humrichous as a mid-major name to watch in a column earlier this cycle. The 6’9” senior from Evansville hasn’t slowed down. He’s scoring 15.6 PPG while making 61.6% of his twos and 48.5% of his threes. Humrichous isn’t a low volume merchant, either—he’s taking nearly 100 per 100 possessions. While he’s not the fastest or most agile, the dude can get up. He’ll regularly throw down dunks and swat shots. His scoring efficiency, bounce, and decision-making have him firmly in the mix.