The Four Paths for Juan Nuñez

Pass-first point guards might have fallen out of fashion, but there are several avenues to the NBA for players who simply know what they are doing.

Juan Nuñez is one of the best passers I’ve ever seen, in terms of creativity, reactiveness, and accuracy.

You weren’t expecting such a direct opening, I know. But I wouldn’t be doing my job as a writer if I didn’t at least try to subvert expectations.

Four-time Euroleague champion and former San Antonio Spurs assistant coach Ettore Messina says that the two most important passes in basketball are the skip pass and the pocket pass, because, in a similar fashion to the opening paragraph of this piece, both passes subvert the expectations of the opposing team, and have the power to make the entire defense shift, creating hard closeouts and two-versus-one opportunities.

This is rooted in one of the basics of off-ball defense: you’re supposed to help off the offensive player who is seemingly two passes away from the ball-handler. That means that when an opponent is dribbling towards your side of the court, you’re supposed to get closer to your defensive assignment and when someone is dribbling away from your side, you inch closer to the middle of the floor. 

When Nuñez has the ball in his hands, however, every player on the floor is one pass away.

Nuñez is dishing 7.7 assists per 36 minutes in the 2023-24 season, while posting a 2.14 assist-to-turnover ratio. But there isn’t a single stat out there that can convince you of how special he is as a passer more than watching his tape. Nuñez possesses a level of vision that is truly unique, being able to thread the needle, make skip passes, no-look passes, and manipulate defenders consistently.

When you consider that there’s not a single pass in the book that Nuñez can’t make, his NBA floor is that of a tremendously gifted passer who will create open shots for teammates with his elite level of vision, reactiveness, and creativity in his deliveries; passing has always been a certainty with Nuñez.

Everything else, on the other hand, has been a question mark.

In order to get an estimation of said value, I utilized several filters to find the NBA players over the last 10 drafts who have provided positive value for at least one season in the league, mainly via their passing. The goal of the filter was to find:

1. Players who have been elite passers. (Career marks of at least 5.0 Assists per 36 and 2.5 Assist-to-Turnover ratio)

2. Players whose value has more to do with passing than with scoring. (Players who have never scored 15 points per game or more in a season and have career marks of at least 0.3 Assist-to-Point ratio). And,

3. Players who have contributed to winning. (Players who have at least one season of positive LEBRON metric).

After filtering, only six players remain.

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When looking at the common trends in those players' careers and, especially, their peak seasons, four potential paths open up for Nuñez to become a valuable player at the NBA level.

Path 1. Excel around the basket

Examples: 

2020-21 Cameron Payne (66.7% at the rim)

2022-23 Delon Wright (84.2% at the rim)

2022-23 Tre Jones (67.3% at the rim)

2022-23 Monte Morris (75.4% at the rim)

2017-18 Tyus Jones (68% at the rim)

Nuñez is a gifted and fluid ball-handler who utilizes crossovers, hang dribbles, and changes of directions to get by opponents in the perimeter, especially slower forwards and bigs in switches. He’s poised under pressure and is able to navigate traffic with the ball in his hands, utilizing off-beat dribbles to get defenders off of their spots.

Nuñez’s ball-handling ability is fluid, but really shouldn’t be described as electric or quick, with one of his limitations as a scorer being the lack of elite quickness in his first step. He also has difficulties in generating enough power and changing speeds after turning the corner, which allows defenders to stay in front of him and force him into tough shots at the rim.

The good news is that when Nuñez gets to his spots, much like the names on the list above, he’s an accomplished finisher. Nuñez converted 63.4% of his field goals at the rim during the 2023-24 season, attempting 4.1 shots per game in the restricted area. The percentage would rank him 132nd among 289 guards in the NBA during the 2023-24 season.

The left-handed Nuñez is able to drive both to his left and to his right (57/43 splits on drives to either side of the floor according to InStat), and is able to finish with either hand; around 40% of his rim finishes were made with his weaker hand and he shot 66% on them according to InStat.

Could Nuñez’s profile fit path 1?: In short, Yes.

You would wish that he was able to create more separation and wasn’t as reliant on those tough, off-balance shots falling, but much like the players in our sample, Nuñez has learned to work with what he has. In a way, if he were reliant solely on his quickness to get to the rim it would be equally more concerning because those physical advantages have a tendency to disappear once you get to the NBA level.

At the end of the day, Nuñez will generate value with his passing. There are a number of ways in which, despite his limited quickness, he will be able to add value on drives. His rim finishing being as good as it is for his size and age should allow him to draw help defenders at the rim, which he will be able to exploit with kick out passes to the corner or easy passes to the big man in the dunker spot.

It’s also worth noting that, while we tend to talk about how scoring can open up passing lanes, the opposite was true for Nuñez this season in Germany. He was able to find open lanes to the rim time and time again by manipulating opposing off-ball defenders, who were so focused on stopping his passes that they would stay with their defensive assignments for a second too long, being late to rotate and cover his drives.

Path 2. Find a way to thrive as a jump shooter

Examples:

2020-21 Cameron Payne (44.0% from 3pt, 68.5% of them assisted)

2022-23 Delon Wright (34.5% from 3pt, 85.4% of them assisted)

2022-23 Monte Morris (38.2% from 3pt, 76.9% of them assisted)

2017-18 Tyus Jones (34.9% from 3pt, 93.3% of them assisted)

Shooting has been the swing skill for many point guards in the NBA and it could certainly be the case for Nuñez, who’s currently at 31.7% from three-point range during the 2023-24 season. However, there are several explanations for the low shooting percentages, starting with his shot diet.

Nuñez’s shooting profile resembles that of many offensive engines across the college and overseas landscapes, containing a heavy dose of dribble jumpers—80.6% of his jump shot attempts are off-the-dribble according to Synergy, which Nuñez has converted at a 0.82 point per shot rate, which places him slightly below the average when compared to other Point Guards in the class.

Nuñez possesses a level of versatility and ability to convert jumpers on the move, especially in the pick-and-roll. According to InStat, Nuñez has converted 34.5% of his pick-and-roll three-point jumpers, and he’s clearly able to punish defenders when they go under screens.

The limitations to create separation that Nuñez displays as a driver don’t heavily affect him as a shooter, in part due to his creative ball-handling, but mainly due to his effective and consistent footwork, which allows him to get defenders off-balance and create separation consistently with side-step and stepback moves.

When it comes to shooting mechanics, Nuñez shows good balance and generally aligns well, showing little left/right variance. His catapult-style jumper, where he brings the ball all the way back near his left shoulder, makes his jumper not only slower, but also leads to higher variance in his release point and could be one of the reasons why his misses are mostly long or short.

Could Nuñez’s profile fit path 2?: There’s a chance.

Nuñez has shown a good level of versatility this season in Germany, and his percentages from three-point range haven’t completely tanked even with the level of difficulty of the majority of the shots he takes. I find that shot versatility is generally a good indicator of shooting potential at the NBA level, as well as touch in other areas besides shooting, and for Nuñez it manifests in his tough, off-balance layups around the basket and in the difficult passes that he delivers with tremendous accuracy.

The expectation is that, just like the four examples listed at the beginning of the section, once Nuñez is able to play more off-the-ball, the shots might become less difficult and he can improve his percentages.

The reason why I don’t consider him a lock to become a prolific shooter at the NBA level is that he simply hasn’t played off-the-ball that much in his career, and the jump shooting has been more of a complement to his pass-first approach than a consistent offensive weapon. It will be interesting to see how he adapts to a role in which he has to share the ball-handling duties, probably for the first time in his career.

It’s no surprise then that two of the most concerning statistical indicators have to do with low volumes. First is the low volume of attempts off-the-catch: only 28 jumpers during the season, which he converted at a 1.07 Points Per Shot rate. Decent, although not eye-popping numbers. Then there’s the low three-point attempt rate. 31.5% of his field goal attempts are three-pointers, which would rank on the lower end of NBA guards.

The final indicator for concern is his below average free-throw percentages. Nuñez is at 62.3% from the free-throw line for his career on 400+ attempts and hasn’t finished a season above the 70% mark from the line.

Path 3. Make an Impact Defensively

Examples:

2020-21 Cameron Payne (1.0 DBPM)

2022-23 Delon Wright (3.1 DBPM, 3.7 STL%, 2.7 STL per 36)

2017-18 Tyus Jones (1.7 DBPM, 3.2 STL%, 2.3 STL per 36)

While it’s plausible that Nuñez finds a way to thrive both as a shooter and as a driver at the NBA level, his defensive potential is a harder sell.

Simply put, Nuñez’s lack of elite size, length, quickness, and explosiveness severely limits his ability to navigate screens and stay in front of drivers as an on-ball defender. When it comes to his off-ball defense, Ulm’s scheme asked Nuñez to stunt on drives from the strong side and get back to his man, which he did with mixed results, as his lack of elite quickness was a limitation that, at times, didn’t allow him to get back to his defensive assignment and close out on time.

Still, I don’t think Nuñez is a complete zero on defense and, as shown by his solid steal rate (2.5 steals per 36, 3.6 STL% according to RealGM), he can contribute with his anticipation and off-ball positioning. His best moments come when he’s able to see passes before they happen and intercept them. The flashes of defensive potential off the ball are there, the question is if it will be enough to derive enough value on this end of the floor.

Could Nuñez’s profile fit path 3?: Doubt it.

Considering the limitations in his impact as a point-of-attack defender, it’s hard for me to see him developing into a defensive stopper on the perimeter.

Path 4. Be the one guy who knows what the fuck you’re doing.

There is one name from the query that I haven’t mentioned yet in these examples, and that’s Elfrid Payton. His 2019-20 season was, statistically, the best of his career, playing for an awful, Julius Randle-led New York team that fired their coach 22 games into the season.

Despite not shooting the ball all that well (47% TS, 57.5% at the rim, and 20.3% from three-point range) and not making a huge impact defensively, the Knicks were clearly better with Payton on the floor. They were 17-28 in games that Payton played, and 4-17 without him. Payton was also able to make teammates better when he was on the floor according to the on/off numbers.

When looking at that Knicks roster, one thing becomes clear: Payton is the one player who can run an offense on a primary level. Ntilikina and Smith Jr. were theoretically point guards entering the league in the 2017 Draft, and while their careers were, much like Payton, limited by poor three-point shooting, it was Payton’s ability to run an offense that ultimately allowed him to stay eight years in the league, play 500 games, and start 395 of them.

Could Nuñez’s profile fit path 4?: Yes. 100%.

Even in an era where leading scorers are tasked with bringing the ball up and initiating most of the offense, regardless of their passing prowess or lack thereof, there’s still a place for players who simply know how to run an offense.

The six players in the sample are proof of it. Without being dominant scorers, they have played an average of 7.3 seasons in the league, with five of them still playing in the NBA this season and at least four of them (Payne, Morris, and both Jones brothers) being a near lock to play at least one more season in the league.

Of course, it’s always better if you can get a guy who can run an offense AND score, but players who can make teammates better will always have a market. When you’re in the thick of the season and you realize Julius Randle is leading your team in assists per game, you’ll be thankful to have Elfrid Payton on your team.

Don’t be surprised if a few years down the line, the player who you’re thankful to have on your team is Juan Nuñez.