The Prospect Overview: Don't You Forget About Me
PJ Tucker, Javonte Green, and Anthony Parker were all written off before finding their groove as NBA players. Maxwell reviews five college players who shouldn't be dismissed quite yet and MORE!
Feature: Don’t You Forget About Me
He had a nice college career. He just didn’t really have a clear, translateable role at the next level. At 6’5”, he only took four threes over his three college seasons. Still, he could fill it up, scoring almost 17 PPG. His rebounding was stellar, he could pass, and his defense was nasty. But at 6’5”? Eh, he wasn’t that appealing. He went 35th in the draft. As a rookie, he barely played, and he was cut in March. The next five seasons would see him play across the world, spending time in Israel, Greece, Ukraine, Germany, and Italy. I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: there is nothing wrong with a player having a long, successful career outside of the NBA. If certain things don’t break right for a player or if the best opportunities don’t present themselves, that’s okay. Sometimes the stylistic fit of the league doesn’t align with that player’s style. And sometimes…it just doesn’t align yet.
The player I’m talking about is P.J. Tucker. By the 2012-2013 season, the NBA started to toy with going smaller more consistently, and teams were becoming less repulsed by the idea of lining up a 6’5” player at a forward spot. Heck, eventually, Tucker could even play center. His strength helped him considerably, and he was aided by his growth as a shooter. Tucker became one of the most coveted role players in the league— someone who could defend multiple positions on defense while spacing the floor and making the right decisions in a low-maintenance offensive role.
As a Chicago area resident, I can’t go more than a few days without seeing a clip of Javonte Green throwing down a mesmerizing dunk. Unlike the first two guys I mentioned, Green couldn’t even get the time of day from NBA teams coming out of college in 2015. A 6’4” power forward from Radford who was nearly allergic to the three-point line? That was an easy pass for front offices. Green played for a team in Germany’s third division, then Italy’s second, and then finally Germany’s top division. In 2019, he finally earned an NBA opportunity with the Boston Celtics. In 2022, he has functioned as a key role player for the Chicago Bulls and emerged as a fan favorite. His contagious energy, pesky defense, and transition play have earned him a spot in the league going forward. Coming out of college, it would’ve made sense on paper to write off Javonte Green, but ultimately, it would have proven foolish to do so.
Another player who resonates in this regard also hits close to home for me— Naperville, Illinois’s Anthony Parker. A first-round pick in 1997, Parker couldn’t carve out a role during his first three seasons in the NBA. A long-range sniper in college, he couldn’t get his triple to fall in the NBA. He went off to Israel and took off with Maccabi Tel Aviv, namely during his stretch with the team from 2003 to 2006. There, he rounded out his game and won the EuroLeague MVP award twice. Parker rediscovered his confidence as a shooter and developed as a playmaker when chased off the line. He came back to the NBA during the 2006-2007 season. Parker would play six more seasons in the NBA, mostly as a starter.
Still, as evaluators, we make these mistakes every year. We write players off. We say “never” instead of “not right now.” Looking at the likes of P.J. Tucker, Javonte Green, and Anthony Parker, we should know how silly that can look in hindsight. While most of these men were written off at some point during their professional journey, it should seem even more absurd that we write players off while they are still in school. Today, I’ll be diving into five players that have become largely forgotten by the draft community. I’ll examine what put them on the radar, why they’ve fallen off, and what they can do to get back on it.
Marcus Bagley, 6’8”, Third Year Sophomore, Arizona State
Who is He?
Marcus Bagley is the younger brother of Marvin Bagley. While Marvin was highly touted throughout his prep career, Marcus was more of a late bloomer. He enrolled at Arizona State and played well as a freshman. He tested the NBA draft waters but ultimately returned to school for his sophomore season.
Why were people interested in him?
Two of the most important words in basketball: size and shooting. Over the course of his college career, he’s made 35.3% of his threes while taking a healthy 5.7 3PA per game. Bagley is smart in terms of positioning himself off the ball, finding holes in the defense’s coverage, and sneaking into those spots for open looks. His willingness to screen and preparation footwork makes him a ready-made pick-and-pop threat. At the 2021 NBA Draft Combine, Bagley measured with a 6’11” wingspan and generally tested well athletically, barring the lane agility drill. Given his length, intellect, and athleticism, the 3-and-D tools are all here. While he didn’t get to operate with the ball match, he makes solid, fundamental passing reads quickly and should function well as a connector piece.
Why did people lose interest?
Bagley suffered a knee injury during the third game of his sophomore season, so he’s largely been out of sight, out of mind. Unfortunately, he’s had many injuries over the years, missing his high school sophomore season and seeing limited action as a high school senior and college freshman. If he can get past the injury bug, his game doesn’t have many holes in it. For Bagley, it’s just about turning the dial up a little bit in a bunch of different areas. He’s good at the basket, but he doesn’t try to get there enough. His passing is respectable, but if it goes up a level, he’ll have more on-ball equity. Bagley isn’t a target on defense by any means, but he has the tools and savvy to be a problem for opposing offenses on that end.
Conclusion
“If he can stay healthy” is always a terrifying phrase. But for Marcus Bagley, it’s hard to lead off any other way. A year and a half ago, he had buzz as a potential first round pick. This year he’ll play for an Arizona squad flanked by (I’m trying to find a polite way to say this) a much more generous crop of guards than he played with as a freshman. In theory, he should get better looks more consistently. If he returns to his old ways as a shooter and improves on the margins, he’ll be right back in the mix.
Will Richardson, 6’5” Graduate, Oregon
Who is he?
Will Richardson was ranked the 40th player in the 2018 high school class by RSCI. He has played four years at Oregon. Each year, his responsibilities became greater. As a senior, he was primed to take over as their leading man after Chris Duarte went to the NBA. He had solid buzz as a late-first, early second round type. The buzz diminished, and now he’s returning for a fifth year.
Why were people interested in him?
Will Richardson is the prototypical combo guard. His length and pesky hands on defense allow him to cover both 1s and 2s. He’s great at reading passing lanes and swiping steals. On offense, he’s proven to be a great shooter. Over four seasons, he’s knocked down 39.2% of his triples. He’s not just a catch-and-shoot guy, either—he made 41.4% of his threes off the dribble this past season. Richardson has also proven to be a reliable finisher at the rim with a beautiful floater game. His pick-and-roll game is effective and fairly sophisticated. He’ll toy with misdirection and constantly keep defenders guessing as to what he’ll do next. Including passes, he ranked in Synergy’s 78th percentile on those possessions. His lob passes are tremendous, and he keeps an eye on the corners for open spot-up shooters, too. In total: Richardson can shoot, finish, pass and defend intelligently.
Why did people lose interest?
Inconsistency. For a moment, think about basketball players like restaurants. Yes, I understand how silly this is, but let’s go with it. The stars are the best ones, providing special, unique offerings that you could never dream of creating in your home—elite steakhouses with a well-honed dry-aging process, top-of-the-line seafood establishments with fresh fish every single day, etc. They come at a premium, but it’s because they’re rare. When it comes to high-end role-players, imagine a fast-casual chain restaurant like Chipotle or Five Guys. It’s not the cream of the crop, but it’s reliable, satisfactory, and, most importantly, you know what you’re getting. If you went to Five Guys and ordered a bacon double cheeseburger, but you got a plain McDonald’s hamburger, you’d be frustrated. Will Richardson serves up Five Guys a good amount of the time, but he’s sneaking McDonald’s hamburgers into the bag way too often. During his junior season, his scoring totals varied wildly from game to game. As a senior, he started well in his first two games. Over his next four, he scored 4.5 PPG and shot 30.8% from the field. Richardson then had two good games followed by an “eight points on 14 shots” disaster in a loss against Arizona State. Then, his best stretch of the season: 15 games, 18.1 PPG, 3.7 APG, 3.7 RPG, 1.6 SPG on 51.1/45.1/74.2 splits. Unfortunately, his last six games saw him post 9.0 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 4.2 APG, and 1.2 SPG on 31.0/17.9/92.9 splits. When it doesn’t go his way, Richardson either forces his hand or recedes to a point that you forget he’s on the court. He’ll pick up his dribble while stuck and shrink, then chuck a bad shot or turn it over. Other times, he’ll play too passively, like when he took three shots in 31 minutes in his final game of the year against Washington. You just don’t know which Will Richardson is going to show up to play every night.
Outlook
As a fifth-year senior, it’ll be an uphill climb for Richardson to hear his name called on draft night, but I don’t think it’s out of the question. On the whole, he’s a good, productive player who can plug and play well into any style. If you need him to create with a screen, he can, and if you want to park him as a floor spacer, he’ll excel. Still, his inconsistency makes finding a long-term NBA role tricky. When coaches go to their bench, they want to know what they are getting. Hit-or-miss, microwave bench scorers tend to pour in buckets at a clip we haven’t seen from Richardson. Most often, players need to be reliable. If he were to get a roster spot and carve out minutes, a cold stretch could see a coach move on to the next man up. Should Richardson prove consistent, NBA front offices will be enamored. His size for the guard spot is perfect for where the league is headed, he’s an outstanding shooter, and he plays good defense. Richardson has more than proven capable; he merely needs to prove steady.
Kadary Richmond, 6’6”, Junior, Seton Hall
Who is he?
Kadary Richmond was the 89th-ranked recruit by RSCI’s metric in 2020. The Brooklyn native stayed in New York state, committing to Syracuse. He immediately grabbed the attention of evaluators, who were simultaneously frustrated by his role for the Orangemen. After his freshman season, he transferred to Seton Hall.
Why were people interested in him?
Kadary Richmond boasts a trinity of valuable skills that have landed many players NBA opportunities: defense, playmaking, and size. Richmond excels at bursting into passing lanes. He gets around screens well, does a great job of poking the ball loose when dribblers don’t anticipate him, and he’s difficult to get around. Off the ball, his speed, awareness, and flexibility enable him to chase players, avoid screens, and prevent his man from getting open. He’s unshakable, and he doesn’t quit on plays. His strength, quickness, and length should enable him to cover multiple positions on-ball at the NBA level. Richmond held pick-and-roll ball-handlers to a measly 0.485 points per possession last season, per Synergy. Even with a screen to deter him, he’s next to impossible to score against. Over his two college seasons, he’s posted a 4.1 STL% and a 1.9 BLK%, both stellar numbers.
On offense, Richmond is intelligent and creative as a playmaker. He’s wiggly and selfless, creating advantages and then hitting his teammates for easy buckets. His speed and handle enable him to split pick-and-rolls and reject screens, leaving defenders on their toes and opening up different ways for him to get to his spots. He maintains his burst with the ball in his hands, enabling him to turn the corner on defenders. While he is right-handed, he is comfortable slinging the ball with his left when it’s the best way to hit an open teammate.
Why did people lose interest?
While Richmond got more opportunities at Seton Hall than he did at Syracuse, it didn’t lead to the jump in productivity on the offensive end some may have anticipated. Richmond hasn’t found a way to score consistently at a high enough clip to warrant draft consideration yet. He made 34.5% of his threes, but he’s largely left wide open on the perimeter, and defenders barely even “stunt” to close out on him. There is a ton of noise, mechanically speaking. He brings the ball outward and away from his body on the way up before pulling it back toward him before he shoots. It’s such a disjointed motion that it makes it difficult to maintain upper/lower body connectivity and release the ball with proper touch. The end result is a lot of ugly misses. While he gets to the rim consistently, he hasn’t displayed good touch there, making only 44.5% of his shots at the rim in the halfcourt as a sophomore. He’ll get to the rim, but the results can be unpredictable once he’s there.
Conclusion
There are few defenders more imposing than Kadary Richmond. When he’s guarding the ball, he walls off opponents, forces them to take difficult shots, and instigates turnovers. Off the ball, he’s a constant threat to dart into passing lanes or to generate a help strip. It’s not all bad on offense, either— he’s clearly a savvy operator who can create opportunities for himself and others in a variety of ways. The challenge is that right now, he has no gravity. Defenders can ignore him off the ball and sag deep on him when he has it. Richmond’s lack of touch inside complicates things further, but he did well as a finisher at Syracuse, and I’m optimistic he can turn that around. If Richmond can merely reach a level where he can be parked in the corner and knock down an open three, there’s an NBA future for him. He’s intelligent, selfless, and an exceptional defensive player. All he needs to do is find a way to put the ball in the basket more consistently.
Dawson Garcia, 6’11”, Junior, Minnesota
Who is he?
Hailing from Prior Lake, Minnesota, Dawson Garcia was ranked 35th on the RSCI for the class of 2020. He enrolled in Marquette. There, Garcia put together an impressive first-year campaign and made the Big East All-Freshmen team. He declared for the 2021 NBA Draft while maintaining his college eligibility and ultimately decided to return to school. Garcia transferred to North Carolina, joining former AAU teammate Kerwin Walton. He has since transferred again to Minnesota.
Why were people interested in him?
Dawson Garcia is a flamethrower from long range. He’s hit 36.2% of his threes over his college career. As a freshman at Marquette, he finished in Synergy’s 78th percentile on jump shots. He moves well on the perimeter and could even create off-ball headaches coming off screens down the road. Players with his size and that type of jumper at his age are exceedingly difficult to find. Even better, Garcia has a potent first step for a player his size against closeouts, enabling him to get to the rim consistently. Per Synergy, he made a tremendous 59.6% of his shots at the rim in the halfcourt as a freshman, too. He presented a conundrum for opposing big men— either leave him open for a high percentage three or close out and risk getting beaten off the dribble for an easy finish at the basket. The first time I saw Dawson Garcia, I saw a lot of Lauri Markkanen in his game. While Garcia shoots with his left and Markkanen with his right, both have a pure stroke with a towering release point and clean footwork to prepare for shots off the catch. Additionally, both can attack the basket when chased off the line.
Why did people lose interest?
Dawson Garcia left the team at UNC while his grandmother dealt with a serious health issue. In his statement, he also noted that he’d almost lost his dad earlier in the year. For those reasons alone, transferring back home to the Minnesota area makes sense. Still, his play at UNC wasn’t at the level of his performance at Marquette. Through his first 11 contests, he played 23.9 Minutes Per Game. That number dropped to 13.2 MPG over his next five outings, and he was removed from the starting lineup. He’s not physically strong, and he fared far worse at the rim, only making 45.1% of his shots there. Additionally, he’s not the craftiest passer for someone who is positioned on the perimeter most of the time and needs to expand that area of his game. The biggest issue is the same one that plagued Lauri Markkanen, though— his defense. His lack of power and vertical explosiveness prevents him from being a meaningful rim protector at this point, and he doesn’t have the mobility to contain quicker players on the perimeter. Garcia can be slow to react at the point of attack, and he doesn’t have the burst to recover when he gets beat. When he has to rotate, his footwork can be choppy. In order to regain attention, he’ll have to find a reliable role he can play on that end of the floor.
Outlook
While Minnesota isn’t exactly the favorite to win the Big Ten, it’s going to be a great place for Dawson Garcia to find himself. He’s not totally without help, either. Jamison Battle is a proven scorer, and transfer Ta’Lon Cooper will give him a reliable table setter. The good news for Garcia is that his outside shot has never left him. I think the finishing can come around, and we’ll certainly find out in a conference loaded with powerful interior big men. The key for Garcia to get himself back on the map will be finding a place on the court defensively. If he can protect the rim more consistently and get his offensive mobility to translate to the other side of the floor, he’ll be in business.
Javonte Perkins, 6’6”, Redshirt Graduate, St. Louis
Who is he?
Javonte Perkins spent his first two years of college at Southwestern Illinois College, a JuCo program. From there, he transferred up to St. Louis and immediately made his mark as a talented scorer. He took another step forward during his senior season and returned for a graduate year…but we’ll get to that later.
Why were people interested in him?
Javonte Perkins is one of the most polished scorers in college hoops. He averaged 17.1 PPG during his senior season, and it was an efficient 17.1. His shooting splits were 46.5/37.6/86.6. Perkins is a true three-level scorer. He can hit threes from NBA distance. In the mid-range, he’s a terror. He finished in Synergy’s 83rd percentile on those shots. If it’s an end-of-shot-clock situation, Perkins is a guy you can count on to send home a contested jumper. He also boasts strong cutting instincts and can find holes in the defense off the ball. Defenders tend to deny him high when he comes off screens, and Perkins has no problem going to the basket when they do. Regardless of where he is on the court, he’s a threat to get buckets.
Why did people lose interest?
That graduate year I promised we would get to later? It didn’t happen like it was supposed to. Perkins tore his ACL during SLU’s first exhibition game, and he missed all of last season’s games. As a graduate super-senior, Perkins is going to be an “old” prospect playing at a mid-major. The path for him to actually get drafted is arduous. Kam McGusty had an incredible season at a high-major program last season and still didn’t hear his name called on draft night, likely because of this. Still, I’m intrigued by Perkins as a prospect because he’s continuing to bloom. The biggest step for him is going to be utilizing his leverage as a scorer to create more for others. During his junior season, he pretty much only got buckets— 15.0 PPG to 0.7 APG. As a senior, those numbers climbed to 17.1 PPG and 1.8 APG. He’s keeping his head up more often, but it’s still not quite enough. Because he’s such a prolific scorer, there are few “bad shots” for him to take. Regardless, it would make him a more difficult cover if help defenders had to sweat when they abandoned their man double him.
Conclusion
There’s a lot for Perkins to overcome— he’s coming off a devastating injury, he’s an older prospect, and his team’s roster has filled out in a way that may reduce his touches. Still, not many guys can fill it up the way he does. If Perkins can find teammates more consistently, he should earn consideration for something like a two-way, Exhibit-10, or at the very least, a Summer League invite.
The Expanding Big Board
1. Victor Wembanyama. Victor keeps the top spot after another big performance, posting 33 points on 17 shots, 12 rebounds, four assists, and three blocks in a win over Limoges. Wembanyama’s uptick in efficiency this season has been a dream. He could have fallen far short of what he’s done and still held down this spot, but the leap he’s taken has been spectacular. His passing has also come along nicely, and he’s better leveraging the attention he’s drawing by finding open teammates for easy baskets.
2. Scoot Henderson. While Scoot hasn’t been efficient as a scorer in his first two G League outings, he’s still the firm number two for me. His defense has been great, and his 3-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio for such a young player in a pro league is nothing short of exceptional. I’m confident that the shots will start to fall more consistently in short order.
And the latest addition to the board…
3. Amen Thompson. Look, I get it. I outlined my concerns with his shot in my column last week— it has a long way to go. But the man is a walking paint touch with high-end athleticism and limitless creativity. On top of that, he’s a nightmare when defending opposing guards. I have my reservations about exactly what he looks like on an NBA floor, but with additional spacing and the best minds in basketball working on ways to make him click, I think he’ll figure it out. I can’t bet against his tools and ability to process the game on both ends.
Quick Hits
-Ausar Thompson went 3-6 from three in his first game of the season on Friday. The jumper is the swing skill for him. With the shot looking cleaner and going in during his first game, he could easily shoot up my board. He’s currently around the 10th spot, but if the shot falls, there’s an easy Top 5 case to be made.
-The early returns on Leonard Miller have been encouraging! He’s getting a lot of run for the G League Ignite, and he’s converting 52.5% of his shots through two games. Given his size and the strides we’ve already seen defensively, he could easily assert himself into the first round with steady improvement. His push-shot jumper still needs work, but we saw Dyson Daniels change his shot mid-season to splendid results last season.
-Each week, I’m going to try to highlight a mid-major game I’m looking forward to, then cover it the following week. This week’s contest: Wednesday’s game between South Dakota State and Boise State. For SDST, the name to watch is Zeke Mayo. At 6’3”, he has NBA size for a guard. He’s a trustworthy decision-maker with exceptional shooting touch, converting 41.5% of his threes and 93.3% of his free throws as a freshman last season. Boise State’s Tyson Degenhart is a prototypical modern NBA player. The 6’7” forward has allegedly added 20 pounds of muscle this off-season. He’s a winning player who was key in Boise State hitting their stride last season. Degenhart defends well within a team concept, keeps the ball moving, has the power to finish inside, and he’s a lovely jump shooter (42.5% from three as a freshman last year). With many of his team’s top producers from last season gone, he should have a larger offensive role and a tremendous opportunity to assert himself in the 2023 NBA Draft conversation.