It’s finally here! March Madness! You know the deal—the stakes, the drama, etc. Because this is No Ceilings, and we cover the NBA Draft, I’m going to take you through an NBA Draft prospect-centered preview of THE ENTIRE NCAA TOURNAMENT FIELD. Yes, I’ve dedicated film time to the entirety of the field to make this happen. If you appreciate this type of content, make sure you’re subscribed to No Ceilings + and following me on Twitter/X! Let’s get down to business!
East Region
#1 UConn vs. #16 Stetson
UConn has a bevy of prospects! Let’s start with the big dogs.
Freshman Stephon Castle was ranked #6 on our most recent Big Board. The 6’6”, 215-pound Castle does a little bit of everything. He’s a positive playmaker, both as a ball screen creator and a connective passer. On defense, his combination of strength and agility enables him to cover multiple positions. He sticks on players like glue. Castle is mentally sharp, which enables him to make winning plays in “gray areas” on both ends. When things get ugly, Castle is composed and calculated.
The lingering question with Castle is his lack of a jump shot. He’s been both reluctant and inefficient. Teams play way off of him, limiting what he can do in the halfcourt. He’s 30.2% on catch-and-shoot threes. Even if he dribbles and takes a step in, he’s only made 22.2% of his pull-up twos this season, per Synergy. At his height, that makes his offensive fit in the NBA incredibly murky. If he can’t shoot, teams will have to find creative ways to deploy him and maximize his skill set.
Still, there’s reason for optimism. Castle battled injuries earlier in the year. Through his first ten games, Castle was 15.4% from deep on 1.3 attempts per game. Over the next 15, he was 35% on 2.7 per game. If Castle can continue his shooting ascent throughout the tournament, the sky might be the limit. The “if he shoots it,” phrase gets thrown around a lot, but Castle will be fantastic if he shoots it. He does everything else well and he’s got good size on him. Our number six ranking for Castle is higher than most, but a hot shooting stretch to close the year may make a top half of the lottery selection more probable than not.
Sophomore big man Donovan Clingan was ranked 12th on our most recent Big Board. The 7’2”, 280-pound center is a mountain of a man. He generated considerable buzz during the Huskies’ title run last year, but he ultimately decided to return to school. His second college campaign hasn’t been a disaster, but there are still questions about his NBA value.
Let’s start with the good stuff—Clingan’s presence on the defensive end is priceless. Opposing teams rarely get deep into the paint against him. He has tremendous help instincts. When opponents test him at the cup, it doesn’t go well. He has a BLK% of 11.2, so a lot of the time, dudes just end up getting their shot swatted. But even if Clingan doesn’t register a block, his strength causes players to bounce off his chest and force tough looks over his long arms. Few are better at holding down the fort than Clingan.
On offense, Clingan is a tremendous play finisher. He rolls like a freight train and goes up hard to finish. His power enables him to move defenders with ease, but he still has touch with his hook shot. He feasts on the offensive glass, boasting a preposterous 15.8 OREB%. Plus, Clingan has added a passing wrinkle this year, making sharp dishes out of the paint to open shooters.
Clingan can defend, finish, and pass, three important skills for modern centers. He’s certainly not lacking positional size, either. Still, his agility looks shaky at times and he’s not able to play a ton of minutes (21.4 MPG). He’s also dealt with foot issues over the past year. His massive frame and injury concerns can be a scary combination. Concerns about his health, lack of versatility, and ability to play a large number of minutes have hampered his stock. A dominant tournament run where Clingan looks the part from a cardio and movement standpoint could get him back into the top half of the lottery.
Alex Karaban ranks 35th on our board. The big-bodied redshirt sophomore stands 6’8” and 220 pounds. That frame plus his sweet shooting touch makes him extremely intriguing. He finished the regular season averaging 14.3 PPG on an incredibly efficient 50.3/40.1/90.2. He has NBA range and is comfortable moving into his shot. Someone that big with that level of touch is easy to get excited about. Plus, he’s a solid connective passer. The defense is a bit of a mixed bag. He understands how rotations work, his arms look long, and he’s got great timing as a shot blocker. His strength and size help him contain the ball well. Still, his feet are clunky, particularly when it comes to changing directions. On an NBA floor where he may have to fly to different places at warp speed against sophisticated offense, he may struggle. Still, Karaban is worth a shot because of his size, shooting, and feel. A strong conclusion to the year could get him into the first round.
We’ve yet to discuss Tristen Newton, the team’s leading scorer. The graduate is a stat sheet stuffer (15.0 PPG, 7.1 RPG, 5.8 APG during regular season play) with great size for a point guard at 6’5”. His length, feel, and general productivity could get him looks in the second round. A career 32.6% from three-point range, Newton’s close to the season as a shooter could sway things for him. Fellow graduate Cam Spencer has quietly had a tremendously efficient year, scoring 14.7 PPG on 49.2/45.1/90.5 splits during the regular season. He’s a competitive and fiery defender with active hands and a career STL% of 3.0. At 6’4” without a high level of athleticism, there’s a bit of a cap on his ceiling, but he’ll get NBA looks. 6’10” junior big man Samson Johnson had some buzz earlier this year. He’s really mobile and is a big-time finisher (70.4 FG%, 60 dunks in the regular season). His skinny frame and poor free-throw shooting (41.9% this year) will likely keep him in school, but keep an eye on him for next year.
Jalen Blackmon will lead the charge for the Stetson Hatters. The 6’3” junior is an unbelievable bucket-getter. He’s scoring 21.5 PPG on 43.4/38.9/91.0 splits. Blackmon has posted five games with more than 30 points this year, including a 43-point outburst in the Atlantic-Sun title game to secure this very bid. He has a stop-and-go shiftiness paired with a slick handle that allows him to get to his spots. His speed changes and bag of veteran-level tricks help him generate space. Blackmon gets into his pull-up quickly and can hit it from anywhere. The rest of his statistical profile is lacking, but he’s an excellent scorer. From an NBA standpoint, he will need to round out his game in a substantial way. But when he’s on, Stetson is tough to beat. If he proves something against a backcourt as good as UConn’s, he’ll be tough to deny.
Blackmon is flanked by Stephan Swenson and Aubin Gateretse. Swenson is a stocky 6’2” senior who sets the table for others extremely well. Gateretse is a 6’10” junior. He moves with great fluidity, excels on the offensive glass (15.0 OREB%), and finishes plays efficiently (72.5% from the field). Adding a shooting or playmaking wrinkle to his game could get him into the mix next year.
#8 Florida Atlantic vs. #9 Northwestern
While Florida Atlantic may not have a prospect in our Top 60, I’ve had eyes on both Johnell Davis and Vladimir Goldin all year. The fourth-year, 6’4” Davis is a physically imposing combo guard who can power his way to his spots before finishing with touch at the basket or in the mid-range. His strength allows him to guard up better than you’d think and outpunch his height on the glass (6.3 RPG). While he often fell victim to tunnel vision in the past, he averaged 3.7 APG to 2.4 TOV during conference play. If he can better strike that playmaking balance in the tournament while the Owls make another deep run, the NBA could come calling. Big Bad Vlad is a legit 7’1” big man. He moves his feet well enough, protects the rim, and brings a real level of toughness. He’s not the most exciting player, but he’s got positional size and he’s ultimately effective. I think he’ll likely overachieve most professional expectations based on that alone.
Boo Buie is Northwestern’s best player. The 6’2” graduate guard is a great playmaker and deadeye shooter (43.1% from long range in regular season play). But at his height and without outlier physical traits, he might be on the outside looking in when it comes to the NBA. From that perspective, Brooks Barnhizer is the guy to watch. The 6’7” junior is extremely powerful with a crafty counter game. He rebounds well and makes smart passes. If you squint, you can see some Jaime Jaquez in there. While he’s a productive defender, his lack of length and shaky foot speed make him a bit of a 3/4 tweener. Still, he can really play, and he’s got size. And though his shot has always been something of a question, his 41.8% from deep in Big Ten play this year is an encouraging mark heading into his senior campaign.
#5 San Diego State vs. #12 UAB
Jaedon Ledee is the big name for the San Diego State Aztecs. The big knock on Ledee is his age, as he’ll turn 25 prior to the start of the NBA season. The 6’9” forward also lacks decision-making chops, averaging 1.4 APG to 2.3 TOV. That said, he’s extremely productive, and he’s why San Diego State has been so good this year. He’s averaging 20.5 PPG, up from 7.9 PPG last year. Physically, he looks and moves like an NBA four. He’s tough as nails, constantly grabbing rebounds and getting to the free-throw line. On defense, he’s both vertically bouncy and smooth laterally. NBA teams typically don’t want to use draft capital on someone his age, but if the rapidly improving Ledee continues to dominate, they may have to think twice. Also, keep an eye on Elijah Saunders. The 6’8” sophomore isn’t a focal point for them, but he’s big, athletic, and he can shoot.
Eric Gaines and Yaxel Lendeborg are the ones to watch for UAB. Gaines is one of the best athletes in college hoops. The 6’2” guard is ridiculously fast and has absurd bounce. Even better, he’s a slick passer who averaged 5.4 APG to 2.4 TOV this season. While his shot has kept him out of the draft conversation (26.5% from three), some highlight plays in the tournament might reignite his stock. Landeborg is a 6’9” junior who stuffs the stat sheet. He comes into the tournament averaging 13.8 PPG, 10.5 RPG, 2.0 APG, 2.2 BPG, and 0.7 SPG. He’s a great rebounder. Landeborg is bouncy enough to protect the rim but quick enough to play in multiple defensive schemes. He’s an okay shooter, but timid from deep. If he can be more willing from deep and prove himself against legit fives to clear up where he stands positionally, he could generate serious buzz.
#4 Auburn vs. #13 Yale
The Auburn Tigers don’t have anyone on our consensus Top 60, but I’ve got Chad Baker-Mazara in mine. The redshirt junior is already 24 years old, and he’s been at four schools in four years—those things will raise eyebrows. That said, he’s 6’8”, he’s quick, he’s bounce, and he’s good at everything. He scores efficiently and makes smart passes. He guards the ball well thanks to his length and speed. He’s pesky as an off-ball defender too, finding playmaking opportunities time and again. I get the hangups, but this is too good of a size and talent bet to pass up at a certain point. Fourth-year big man Johni Broome is a super producer, averaging 16.3 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 2.1 APG, and 2.3 BPG. He also concluded the regular season with a career-high 2.2 threes per game, and he made 35.8% of them. He measured more like a power forward at the combine last year, which may give teams pause about where he falls positionally. Graduate Jaylin Williams has long been a favorite of mine. He’s 6’8”, strong, and he plays the right way. He’s always making hustle plays and he’s got some crafty old-man stuff to him as a driver. Williams is older and he’s been an up-and-down three-point shooter on lower volume. But if a team buys the shot, he could earn a two-way.
The Yale Bulldogs are headlined by Danny Wolf, a 7’0” big man who is a legitimate NBA prospect. The sophomore is very skilled. He’s a 36.1% shooter from deep, which draws closeouts. From there, he can attack downhill with an impressive handle for his size and dish the rock to open teammates (2.3 APG). Wolf is strong, and his savvy allows him to rack up steals at a high clip for a big man (2.0 STL%). But NBA teams will want to see if Wolf can truly anchor a defense as a primary rim protector. He’s got plenty of eligibility remaining, but he now has a chance to prove he may be ready earlier than expected. Johni Broome is going to be an awesome test for him. Also, keep an eye on Bez Mbeng, a lockdown defender (1.9 SPG, 0.4 BPG) with real passing chops (4.2 APG to 1.7 TOV) at 6’4”. If he develops a shot next year, he’ll get serious looks.
#6 BYU vs. #11 Duquesne
BYU’s Jaxson Robinson didn’t make our latest Top 60, but he’s been in that mix throughout the year. The 6’7” wing is a confident long-range bomber who’s launching nearly 15 threes per 100 possessions. While his 34.8% to end the regular season isn’t spectacular, given the sheer number of attempts and the range he can hit them from, it’s safe to say he can shoot. He’s also pretty quick with some bounce to him on the interior. On defense, he knows how to use his length to nab steals and blocks. Where I worry about Robinson is how much he can impact the game when the three isn’t falling. He’s not much of a rebounder, he can get lost off the ball on defense, and he’s really skinny. A big tournament run could heat his name back up.
For the Duquesne Dukes, Jimmy Clark III is my preferred prospect. The 6’3” redshirt senior guard is a nasty defender, posting a career 4.7 STL%. He’s also a solid creator and decent three-point shooter. His defense has never been a question, but he’s never really popped enough in one area on offense to get over the hump. Now, he’ll have a chance to make his case on the national stage. If he trips up a talented and experienced BYU backcourt on defense while running the show on offense, that will mean something.
#3 Illinois vs. #14 Morehead State
While no Illinois players made our most recent Top 60, I have Coleman Hawkins as a mid-second-round guy. The 6’10” Hawkins has played his best and most consistent basketball this season. He ended the regular season at 39.2% from deep on 4.5 attempts per game, both career highs. Hawkins is also a dazzling passer and good on-ball defender in space. A below-average rebounder and rim protector, Hawkins is more of a jumbo four than a true center. Past inconsistencies are likely what is hurting his stock the most at this point. If he can hold it together throughout the NCAA tournament, there will be little to dispute. He’s big, well-rounded, and does a lot of things well.
Riley Minix is the name to know for Morehead State. An up-transfer from NAIA program Southeastern, Minix has seamlessly scaled up to the Division-1 level. The 6’7” graduate stormed out of the gate and put himself on to the radars of NBA scouts with a 19-point showing against Alabama and an 18-point performance against Purdue. The powerfully built wing has a three-level scoring arsenal at his disposal. He can drive hard and finish above the rim, dazzle with mid-post turnarounds, or stroke it from long range off movement. Though he’s only at 34% from deep on the year, he shot over 40% from long range during his NAIA tenure, and the shot difficulty is worth considering. Defensively, Minix’s strong frame and understanding of where to be within a team concept go a long way.
There are some concerns about Minix scaling up yet again. He’ll have to operate in different spots on an NBA court, as he’s comfiest in the mid-post right now. His lateral movement is shaky, and he often crosses his feet when he has to guard in space. He’s a bit of a 3/4 tweener, as he’s not quite power forward size or small forward agile. Still, the fact that he performed well against good teams immediately at the D-1 level is encouraging. NBA teams have some interest in Minix, and a strong tournament performance could help get him higher up on boards before he begins the pre-draft process. Given Illinois’ size and talent between the two and four spots, this is a golden opportunity for Minix.
#7 Washington State vs. #10 Drake
Purely from a draft standpoint, Jaylen Wells is the guy for Washington State. You know what NBA teams like? Tall guys who can shoot. That’s Jaylen Wells. The 6’8” junior is posted 14.6 PPG on 45.7/43.6/86.4 splits during Pac-12 play. He’s got a beautiful high release. Wells can dribble a little bit, too, and he’s more than comfortable cooking in the mid-range. While not a point-forward, Wells makes sound decisions with the ball quickly. Defensively, he uses his length, stance, and lateral movement to guard the ball well. Even more enticing, he’s a late bloomer who was playing Division II ball a year ago. NBA teams will want to see him get to the rim more and improve as an off-ball defender during tournament play. 6’2” freshman Myles Rice had to take a medical redshirt last year while he received treatment Hodgkin’s Lymphoma. This year, he’s been awesome, posting 15.3 PPG, 3.9 APG, and 1.5 SPG. His jumper isn’t there yet, but like, are you going to bet against this guy figuring that out in time? Isaac Jones is a physical, dirty work interior player. At 6’9”, he’s not quite center sized and he doesn’t have a jumper, but he’ll be a pro somewhere.
Tucker DeVries is the name to watch for Drake. The 6’7” junior has been on my radar for years, and I’ve had him in my Top 60 for the entirety of the past two seasons. DeVries has stuffed the stat sheet this season, posting 21.8 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 3.6 APG, and 1.6 SPG for the Bulldogs.
He’s an excellent scorer who is capable at all three levels. DeVries has converted 36.4% of his threes on high volume (11.8 attempts per 100 possessions). What’s more, the degree of difficulty is off the charts. He makes NBA specialist threes. DeVries has converted 50% of his threes as a pick-and-roll ball handler and 44.7% of his threes on handoffs. Chase him off the line, and he’s still efficient. He’s made 41.5% of his pull-up twos and 64.3% of his half-court rim attempts on the year, per Synergy.
DeVries is more than just a scorer, though. He’s a savvy playmaker with a clever handle who can manipulate ball screens to maximize opportunities for himself and others. He sees the floor well and is capable of live dribble slinging with either hand. DeVries competes hard on the glass, too. Both his AST% and DREB% are over 20. On the defensive end, he does well within a team concept. He has good moments as a help defender, particularly when he operates as the low man. On the ball, he’s no slouch laterally, and his strong frame helps him contain opponents.
It’s my opinion that DeVries is one of the most well-rounded prospects out there. Depending on how things shake out in the coming months, I don’t think it’s out of the question that he could enter the draft and go in the first round. Public sentiment wouldn’t agree, but in my personal opinion, I think it’s a possibility. Still, with all mid-major guys, scalability remains a question. He couldn’t buy a bucket against Miami in the tournament last year. Now, DeVries has a chance to put that ghost behind him. Jaylen Wells presents an awesome test. If he shows out, he could be one of the biggest stock-risers in a wide-open draft.
Their supporting cast is solid, too. Kevin Overton is a deep-cut to monitor. The 6’5” freshman is scoring 11.4 PPG on 44.2/34.1/79.5 splits. He’s an awesome shooter who can hit tough threes. While his 1.1 APG seems low, in comparison to his 0.5 TOV, there may be a playmaking punch waiting to be unearthed here. If he fills out his frame, improves defensively, and adds a playmaking element to his game, he could get on the map. That sounds like a lot, but time is on his side, and his shooting is a great base.
#2 Iowa State vs. #15 South Dakota State
The Iowa State Cyclones don’t have a Top 60 player on our 2024 board, but they have a slew of guys who could jump into that mix by tournament’s end. Milan Momcilovic is at the top of that list. The 6’8” freshman has a silky stroke. He converted 35.8% of his threes during regular season play, and he’s got that Dirk fadeaway game in the mid-range. He needs to develop his body and work on getting to the rim more. 6’1” guard Tamin Lipsey may be undersized, but man, he can play. His combination of a thick frame and genuine quickness is great to see for a small guard. His 2.8 SPG is an elite mark. He’s also a clever passer and rebounds above his height. A 36.8% shooter from deep on okay volume, NBA teams will need to fully buy into his jump shot before springing for an undersized guard. Conversely, Keshon Gilbert has the ideal frame for an NBA combo guard. He’s 6’4”, strong, and has awesome run-jump athleticism. Those traits allow him to pressure the rim consistently. He’s a great defender and rebounder. He’ll need to improve as a shooter (32.6% from deep) but his 5.7 attempts per 100 possessions were a career high. Gilbert is also improving as a decision-maker, as he had a career-high in assists per game (4.2) while posting the lowest TOV% of his career (18.6). All three of these guys are worth tucking in your back pocket at worst. At best, they may plant themselves firmly in the 2024 conversation.
Zeke Mayo sits at the helm for the Jackrabbits. I covered the 6’4” junior guard prior to the season for my No Stone Unturned series. The man is a bucket. He’s a career 38.1% three-point shooter on high volume. He’s deadly off the catch, but he’s also a tremendous pull-up shooter, both beyond the arc (34%) and in the mid-range (49.2%). He’s also gotten all the way to the rim more often and converted 62.4% of his halfcourt shots there this season, per Synergy. Defensively, he’s nothing special, but he’s competent and physically strong. NBA teams will want to see him find a more consistent playmaking balance. While he has passing flashes, Mayo isn’t quite a “true point guard” and can be turnover-prone. Still, he’s one of the most electric scorers in college hoops, and he’s tough to stop when he gets going.
William Kyle III is a fun deep cut, too. The 6’9” big is a great play finisher (62.7 FG%, 98 dunks), shot blocker (7.8 BLK%), and he’s demonstrated intriguing passing flashes (11.7 AST%). If he can grow as an offensive hub and become a more consistent ball screen defender, there’s a real path for him even if he’s slightly undersized for the center position.
West Region
#1 North Carolina vs. #16, The Winner of Howard/Wagner
The top NBA prospect for the Tar Heels is Harrison Ingram, who ranked 51st on our most recent Big Board. The 6’8” junior forward has long arms, a strong body, and important modern NBA skills. After being a subpar shooter during his first two college seasons at Stanford, he re-worked things this off-season. The result? A 37.4% campaign from long range on a career-high 4.5 three-point attempts per game. Ingram is an intelligent player who processes the game well on both ends of the floor. Through three seasons, he’s averaging 3.0 APG to 2.0 TOV, awesome numbers for a forward prospect. On defense, his timing and ability to read the game enable him to collect steals and blocks at a solid clip. He embraces physicality and throws his body around on the glass, rebounding exceptionally well on both ends (9.3 RPG, 2.7 ORB).
Where it gets dicey for Ingram is that he’s not a great athlete. He’s ground bound, which hurts him at the rim and limits his shot blocking ability. His first step is limited, and he plays back-to-the-basket a lot on offense. His foot speed may cause issues against quicker NBA players. Still, he’s big and strong, which can go a long way. If teams buy the shooting improvements and he closes the year strong, he may have a first-round path given his size and feel.
Senior guard RJ Davis has gotten some Top 100 level buzz. The 6’0” guard is skinny and mediocre on defense, which will give teams serious pause. Still, he’s an electric scorer and clever passer with real speed. 6’10” graduate big Armando Bacot might get some looks. He’s a productive rebounder, but a limited defender who may not have the offensive skill to overcome that. 6’1” freshman Elliot Cadeau was a highly touted recruit, and he’s a fantastic passer. He’s one for down the road, as he needs to get stronger and improve his three-ball.
Howard’s Bryce Harris is one of my favorite guys that I was introduced to via this exercise. At 6’4”, he’s sort of an undersized, bullying wing. But he’s awesome at basketball. He’s grabbing 7.6 RPG, he can see the floor pretty well, and he’s an excellent defender. Harris can slide his feet with anybody, and his 220-pound frame helps him to swallow up opponents. His weakside rim protection instincts are outstanding. Not a lot of guys average over a steal and block per game at 6’4”, but Harris is one of them. A 39.1% shooter from three on low volume, he could draw real NBA interest a year from now if he becomes a knockdown guy on higher volume. Selfishly, I’m pulling for Howard here because I want to see him against the likes of Harrison Ingram and Cormac Ryan.
For Wagner, Melvin Council Jr. is the most interesting prospect. As a 6’4” junior who shot under 40% from the field, he’s a longshot. But he’s got long arms and moves like a pro in every sense. His handle and quickness reliably get him into the paint, and he sees the floor well when defenses collapse. He’s an impactful defender who posted a 2.5 STL% and 2.1 BLK% this season. Council uses his length to make plays and flies to block shots in transition. If he comes back with a jumper next year (25.9% from deep this season), he could be a deep cut to consider.
#8 Mississippi State vs. #9 Michigan State
Mississippi State might not be the best prospect team, but they are a great basketball team. Freshman guard Josh Hubbard is extremely undersized at 5’10”, but he still scored 18.4 PPG in SEC play. He’ll need to prove that he can hang enough defensively to stay on an NBA floor, but he has plenty of time to get there. I’ve always thought a team might kick the tires on Cameron Matthews with an E10 contract. The 6’7” senior is a bad shooter (career 18.9% from deep, 57.8% from the free throw line). That said, everything else is great. He’s got a big body and he can guard anybody. His 4.1 STL% and 2.9 BLK% are part of why he’s garnered such a reputation defensively. He can pass, too, and the Bulldogs ran a decent amount of offense through him. If a team thinks the shot is fixable, they’ll probably take a hard look at him as an undrafted type.
There’s no slam-dunk 2024 prospect on Michigan State either, but there’s a handful of players worth looking at. Graduate Tyson Walker is a tiny guard at 6’0”, but when he gets hot, he’s mesmerizing. He’s a talented pull-up scorer who can take over a game. I’d love to see this game become a back-and-forth shot-making contest between Walker and Hubbard. Walker has also gotten better defensively, which will get him something a foot in the door. 6’7” grad Malik Hall has always been a talented inside-out scorer, and his decision-making came along this season. Still, he doesn’t produce much defensively, he’s heavy laterally, and he can be gun-shy from three. 6’3” senior guard AJ Hoggard is built like a tank, allowing him to guard further up the lineup than most his size. He’s a trustworthy decision-maker with the ball in his hands. He’s never been much of a shooter or pull-up threat (career 29.8% from three), though. 6’6” freshman Coen Carr didn’t take a three all season and struggled at the free throw line, but like Hoggard, he’s super powerful. That goes a long way on defense. He can jump out of the gym and throw down some wild dunks. If he rounds out his skill set, he could be a guy at some point. 6’11” freshman Xavier Booker has shown enticing flashes when not appearing on the side of a milk carton. He moves well for his size and he’s hit 32.6% of his threes this year. It’s still unclear how he stacks up from a physicality perspective, as he’s on the slender side and didn’t rebound that well in his limited minutes.
#5 Saint Mary’s vs. #12 Grand Canyon
While the Saint Mary’s Gaels may not have a surefire NBA guy, there are loads of intriguing fringe prospects here. Unfortunately, my favorite among them will be out due to injury—6’8” sophomore Joshua Jefferson. While his jumper is a real question mark, he’s a pro athlete who rebounds, defends, and passes at a high level. His combination of size, smarts, and tools makes him worth an NBA flier at worst whenever the time comes.
Graduate Alex Ducas will get some E-10/Summer League type looks. He’s 6’6” with a strong body, a career 40.7% three-point shooter, and is a good decision-maker (2:1 ATO). He’s heavy-footed and can’t do much inside the arc, but his skills have value. Junior guard Augustus Marciulionis won the WCC Player of the Year Award. At 6’4”, he’s got good size for a guard and he’s a fantastic table setter. If he becomes a better jump shooter next year (34.3% on 3.2 threes per game this year), he could get into the mix. Sophomore guard Aidan Mahaney is the team’s leading scorer. He posted 13.6 PPG on 38.6/35.0/81.3 splits. He needs to improve inside the arc and on defense to get himself on the NBA map. 6’10” Mitchell Saxen is big, strong, and skilled, but likely behind the curve athletically as it pertains to the NBA.
The best “this year” prospect is actually on the lower-seeded team. Grand Canyon’s Tyon Grant-Foster has been on NBA radars since the start of the season. A health scare cost him almost two entire seasons, but he re-emerged at Grand Canyon this year, and my goodness, can this guy play. He’s 6’7”, and he’s unquestionably an NBA level athlete. He can run, slide, and jump with the best of them. It’s most evident on defense, where few can create advantages against him and he can wreak havoc off the ball. He’s a determined driver who can finish above the rim and draws a million fouls per game (roughly, don’t stat-check me on that). His energy and demeanor are awesome, and he seems like the type of guy you’d want to play with. The biggest question for Grant-Foster is where he’s at as a shooter. He made 33.1% of his threes this year, which isn’t terrible. Still, his pull up release is low, and on his catch-and-shoot motion, the ball comes across his body, and the release is a little funky. Front offices will be interested to see how he performs beyond the arc against high-level opponents.
#4 Alabama vs. #13 Charleston
Alabama doesn’t have a Top 60 prospect on our most recent board, but there are some interesting players here. Grant Nelson is an outstanding athlete at 6’10”. Few can match his run-and-jump physical tools, and that’s meaningful at his size. He’s a potent slasher and above-the-rim finisher. Defensively, he gets a bit lost on ball screens as a big man, and he needs to clean some things up technically when he’s switched down. His jumper also remains more of a theoretical tool than a real weapon. Still, some team will probably give him a two-way because of the size and physical gifts. Mark Sears is practically his opposite. He measured under 6’0” at G League Elite Camp last year. Still, he’s an outstanding three-point shooter (44.1% during regular season play) and a fantastic table setter (4.1 APG). His size will be held against him, but a deep tournament run will help his perception. Aaron Estrada is a bigger guard at 6’4” with more of a potent, downhill attacking style. However, his shot (26.3% from deep during SEC play) holds him back. 6’6” sophomore Rylan Griffen is an interesting long-term proposition. He scored 11.1 PPG on tidy 45.0/38.2/83.3 splits during the regular season. Plus, he’s got some passing chops. He needs to improve defensively and get stronger, but I think that’s on the table for him.
Charleston’s junior big man Ante Brzovic is fairly intriguing. At 6’10”, he’s a fluid mover everywhere on the court. Smaller players have a hard time taking advantage of him in space. The lefty has soft touch around the basket. He’s also comfortable putting the ball on the deck, and he’s a fantastic passer for his size (21.1 AST%). Where it gets tricky is that he’s a positional tweeter. He’s too skinny and not a good enough rim protector to play the five, nor is he a consistent enough shooter to play the four. Still, he’s got more time to sort that out.
#6 Clemson vs. #11 New Mexico
The Clemson Tigers are led by PJ Hall, who is the 23rd-ranked prospect on our Big Board. A 6’10” senior, Hall had a strong performance at G League Elite Camp and the NBA Combine last year before opting to return to school.
Hall came out of the gates hot. Clemson played a solid early season schedule, and it was evident that he had taken steps forward. Somewhat of a “4/5 tweener” positionally, Hall showcased improved timing and technique as a defender in drop coverage. His lateral agility and reaction time looked better, like when he rejected super-athlete Eric Gaines’s shot on an island in a clutch moment against UAB. He took more threes than ever before, ending the year at 9.5 attempts per 100 possessions. His devastating screen setting opens things up for teammates, and whether Hall will pop for a jumper or use his strength and bounce to roll to the rim creates headaches for defenses. He sees the floor well as a passer and rarely makes mistakes.
Down the stretch, Hall started to fade a little bit. His three-ball stopped falling, and he goes into the tournament at 31.6% from deep. There are also fair questions to be asked about where he’s at positionally. His measurements weren’t great for an NBA five, so he may need to be “a big who plays next to another big” in the NBA. His rebounding numbers have never been stellar (though he’s always played alongside other plus-rebounders).
Ultimately, I view Hall as a guy who will be around the NBA for a long time. I buy the shot, as the degree of difficulty, range, volume, and his good free throw shooting numbers all stand out as positive indicators. He’s a smart passer. He’s always competing and will do the dirty work as a screener. His strength and physicality bode well for him at the next level. His defense has come along to a place where I think he’s going to be able to hang. The question then becomes, “how exciting of a player is that?” Hall will have the NCAA Tournament to prove to teams that he’s going to be a higher upside equation worth spending a first-round pick on rather than a potential journeyman.
6’8” junior Ian Schieffelin is an interesting oddball to monitor. He’s tough as nails and rebounds the hell out of the ball (9.5 RPG). He can pass, too. Still, he’s not quite a full-fledged shooter yet. He makes his threes but he rarely shoots them (41.2% on 0.8/game for his career). Similar to Hall, he’s a 4/5 tweener, but not as tall or bouncy, which makes defense problematic. If he comes back shooting in next year, he’ll be cooking.
New Mexico has a slew of NBA prospects, but my favorite is JT Toppin. The 6’9” freshman has a powerful body but he can move with the best of them. His 7.6 BLK% and 2.2 STL% are both eyebrow-raising numbers, especially for a first-year college player. Toppin has sharp reactive instincts, great physical tools, and a motor that doesn’t shut off. Offensively, he’s a potent finisher who converted 66.2% of his twos. He’s a force on the offensive glass (14.3 ORB%) and an awesome lob target. At 35.5% from deep on low volume, there might be some shooting range in there, too. He doesn’t get to operate with the ball much, so I’m unsure how skilled he is as a passer and ball handler at this stage. And at 6’9”, he’s stuck in that 4/5 tweener slot as far as NBA projection goes until he shows more on that front. Still, Toppin is a great athlete with legit size who can score and defend. A strong stretch to end the year might make NBA teams think hard about him as a 2024 guy.
6’2” sophomore guard Donovan Dent has gotten some buzz this year. While small guards are “out” right now, Dent is hard to overlook. He’s a fantastic athlete with great passing skills (5.6 APG to 2.3 TOV) and he’s a pain on defense (1.6 SPG, 0.7 BPG). A reluctant outside shooter (37.5% on 1.2 threes per game) with a slight frame, the combination of his shooting and body questions have me viewing him more as a “down the road” guy. Graduate guard Jaelen House is also shorter and skinnier, and injuries put a damper on his production this season. Still, he’s an outrageous defensive playmaker with a career 4.4 STL%. I’d bet he still gets NBA looks.
From a pure match-up standpoint, there’s a lot to look forward to with this match-up. How does Donovan Dent handle PJ Hall’s physicality? How does JT Toppin look next to a high-major big like Hall? Does Hall have the defensive chops to shut down such a potent pick-and-roll game? This is one of the premier prospect match-ups of the first round.
#3 Baylor vs. #14 Colgate
The top-ranked Baylor Bears prospect on our board is #8 Ja’Kobe Walter. The 6’5” shooting guard was one of the top-ranked players in his high school recruiting class. His outside scoring ability is a big part of that. While his 33.9% from deep during regular season play may seem average, he did that on 6.2 attempts per game. There’s real movement stuff here, too, as he made 43.2% of his threes coming off screens. As a leading option, he simply doesn’t get many clean looks, and he’s often tasked with bailing his team out at the end of the clock. His long arms and willingness to throw his body on someone help him defensively.
Personally, I’m a little lower on Walter than our consensus board. He’s not much of a creator, posting an even assist-to-turnover ratio in conference play. If you’re buying the scoring profile, the fact that he has a basic handle and lacks the burst to separate become an issue. His finishing leaves a lot to be desired. On defense, he can be slower footed at times. Throw in his height, and I’m not sure how versatile he is on that end.
Ultimately, Walter has a really valuable skill in his three-point shooting. He makes the type of tough threes that NBA shooters need to make. When he’s in a more complimentary role, things should come easier for him. It’s hard to imagine a scenario where he doesn’t go in the first round. That said, the NCAA tournament will provide a big opportunity to climb back up the board if he can prove more efficient.
Walter’s teammate, big man Yves Missi, ranked 22nd on our board. Personally, I’m higher on the 6’10” freshman. He looks and moves like a starting NBA big. Missi is a big-time shot blocker who can be trusted to protect the rim. Still, he’s astoundingly light on his feet and excels when he has to switch down onto smaller players. On offense, he’s an awesome lob target. His 15.1 OREB% is elite, and he’s always creating low-maintenance putbacks for himself. If you don’t box him out, you’ll pay. He’s also one of my favorite screeners in this class. he’s always making contact, whether it’s on or off the ball.
He’s not without his flaws. Missi isn’t a great free-throw shooter, and he’s certainly not going to space the floor any time soon. His 3.5 AST% is ghastly for an NBA prospect. He can bite on fakes and advanced post moves too easily. I get it, he needs to add polish. But this is precisely the type of player I’d be willing to be patient with. Missi can defend in any scheme, he’s physically ready for the NBA, and he knows how to be a productive offensive player despite his limitations. If he can show more ball skills during the tournament, his stock could skyrocket.
6’7” senior Jalen Bridges is draftable for me, too. He’s got wing size, he’s athletic, knows how to defend, moves the ball quickly, and has developed a nice scoring package. He feels like the type of plug-and-play guy a competitive team should look at in the second round. Graduate guard Rayj Dennis will get some looks. He’s undersized, not a great athlete, and just okay as a shooter. But he’s an intelligent table setter who finds ways to bend defenses. Though I doubt he comes out this year, I quite like junior combo guard Jayden Nunn. He’s a defensive menace who’s over 40% from deep on his career. He’s also filled out his frame and become a legitimate finisher. If his passing takes a step forward next year, he’ll be in the mix.
I don’t know that the Colgate Raiders have a true NBA prospect, but they’ve got three guys who can really play. 6’10” big man Keegan Records displays solid recognition on defense and he’s a smart passer. Athletically, it’s just not there. 6’6” wing Ryan Moffatt is in a similar boat. He’s a legit movement shooter with a solid first step, but he’s a little too easy to shake defensively. At 6’0”, Braeden Smith will be fighting an uphill battle. Still, he’s stuffed the stat sheet with 12.5 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 5.8 APG, and 1.9 SPG. While his three-point percentage dipped to 30.9% this year, I think the sophomore will turn that around in the future. His release is both pretty and quick. This Colgate team is balanced, skilled, and better defensively than their past squads.
#7 Dayton vs. #10 Nevada
Dayton Flyers big man DaRon Holmes II is the 27th-ranked prospect on our board. The 6’10” junior has been outstanding this year. He’s always been a versatile defender who could slide his feet in space and a good rim protector. This year, he’s become a more physical player. He’s rebounded the ball better down the stretch and he’s getting to the free-throw line over eight times per game. While he had passing flashes in the past, he’s better actualized that, posting 2.6 APG during regular season play and a positive assist-to-turnover ratio. Holmes has an awesome handle for his size and routinely cooks other big men in space. He’s also become a respectable floor spacer, taking 2.5 threes per game and knocking down 38.7% of them.
The knocks on Holmes largely center around his size and ability to handle physicality. His 7’.05” wingspan and 9’1” standing reach at the combine are on the smaller end for a true five, and his slender frame doesn’t move the needle much in that respect. The fact that he’s producing so well in the Atlantic-10 can be hand-waved by skeptics, as he’s big for that league, but won’t be big for the NBA.
In my book, Holmes is a classic “good basketball player.” Is there one blow-away signature skill here? Probably not. But he can defend in multiple ball screen coverages, he’ll space the floor, and he’s a good decision-maker. If nothing else, he’s more interesting than most backup bigs in the NBA. The dream scenario for Holmes would see the Flyers make a deep run while he can prove himself against power conference bigs along the way.
6’7” fourth-year player Koby Brea will probably get some NBA looks when his time comes. He’s a limited athlete and defender, but my goodness, can he shoot. He ended the regular season at 49.7% from three on six attempts per game. That’s…beyond elite. Brea is a solid passer and decision-maker, too.
Nevada has two guys who I think could gain some NBA traction with strong tournament performances. More urgently, there’s 6’6” graduate Kenan Blackshear. He’s like a twitchier, more chiseled Hunter Maldonado. He stuffs the stat sheet (15.1 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 4.8 APG, 1.4 SPG, 0.5 BPG), but he can’t shoot (career 28.6% from deep). If he gets hot from long range, I could see a team buying the athleticism and production enough to throw him an E10. Longer term, there’s 6’8” redshirt sophomore Nick Davidson. He’s a subpar athlete by NBA standards and also needs to improve as a shooter (career 32% from three). That said, he’s strong, smart, and makes stuff happen. His 38.7% on pick-and-pop triples is a source of optimism. If he becomes a knockdown guy, he could get a shot.
#2 Arizona vs. #15 Long Beach State
The Arizona Wildcats have a number of interesting players. 6’5” wing Pelle Larsson is probably their most touted NBA prospect. He’s a career 39.2% three-point shooter. When chased off the line, he’s both a magnificent passer (3.7 APG) and potent finisher (62.3% at the rim in the halfcourt). While he’s not the longest guy on earth, his strong body and willingness to engage in physicality help him guard up the lineup. Teams will want to see more eagerness to shoot from Larsson. His elongated motion leads to him passing up too many triples. An assertive Larsson is one who could climb boards during NCAA Tournament play.
6’7” graduate Keshad Johnson has been a draftable guy for me since late November. He’s a powerhouse, physically. Opponents can’t drive through him, and he’s vertically explosive on both ends. Still, Johnson is agile, making him a nightmare for smaller opponents when he switches down. Opinions of Johnson will likely come down to his shot. He shot 38.8% during regular season play on low volume after shooting worse on even lower volume in past years. Personally, I like how it looks mechanically in slow motion, so I’m buying him. He’s an NBA athlete with an NBA body who plays hard, can guard multiple positions, shoot it well enough to be respected.
Freshman KJ Lewis could be a potential party crasher. The 6’4” guard does everything (12.8 DREB%, 15.5 AST%, 3.2 STL%, 1.6 BLK%), he’s a great athlete in every sense, and he’s strong. A low-volume shooter, Lewis might storm the gates if he gets hot from deep at the right time. Senior guard Caleb Love has likely done enough to sneak back into the conversation after an awesome senior year. He had his most efficient scoring season to date while demonstrating more playmaking poise. Sophomore guard Kylan Boswell has a powerful build, he shot 40.4% from deep during the regular season, and he’s a great decision-maker. At 6’3” and relatively ground-bound, the small guard stigma may keep him in school for a while longer. Freshman Motiejus Krivas is enormous at 7’2”, and he’s not a bad mover, either. He needs refinement on both ends, but he’s a future name to watch.
When it comes to Long Beach State, Jadon Jones is the guy you’ll want to keep an eye on. Personally, I’ve been monitoring him for a few years because he has a valuable NBA skill set, and I covered him during my No Stone Unturned series in 2022. The fourth-year 6’6” wing has NBA range (37.9% on six threes per game) and he’s a tremendous defender (1.8 SPG, 1.0 BPG). Most importantly, Jones has filled out the in-between portions of his game. His handle, finishing, and passing have come along in the last few years, giving him more dimensionality on offense. He has another year of eligibility, but if The Beach tip another apple cart, front offices will grow more curious about Jones. This matchup is particularly intriguing, as Jones is on the slender side. How he deals with a physical wing like Pelle Larsson will be interesting to watch.
South Region
#1 Houston vs. #16 Longwood
The Houston Cougars are once again an awesome basketball team. Their most talked about draft prospect is Jamal Shead, who ranked 56th on our most recent big board. At 6’1” and 200 pounds, Shead is built like the smaller guards who tend to stick in the NBA. The big selling point is his defense, as he’s an otherworldly defender on that end. His 4.5 STL% and 2.1 BLK% are elite marks for a guard prospect. He covers ground more like a wing than a guard. His hands are extremely fast, allowing him to tip passes and get into handles consistently. His spring off the floor to contest makes it difficult even for bigger shooters to launch over him. Simply put, it feels like he’s everywhere all the time and touching the ball on defense an uncanny amount of the time.
Offensively, it’s a little sketchier. He ended the regular season at 32.7% from distance on moderate volume, which is very concerning for a small guard prospect. If teams don’t respect him on offense, it’ll be tough for him to stick. However, Shead is a sharp passer who can whip the ball with either hand. If he can get his shot up to speed, his speed and playmaking acumen will serve him well. A strong shooting run to end the year could do wonders for his perception.
There are some interesting deep-cut prospects here, too. LJ Cryer is like inverse-Shead, a skinnier small guard who lacks size and has defensive shortcomings but is an electric shooter. Redshirt sophomore Emanuel Sharp can drill NBA threes with a quick release and he has good hands on defense, but at 6’3”, he’s not much of a playmaker. J’Wan Roberts is an awesome garbage man big who can defend well in space. He’s got some passing chops, too. Unfortunately, he’s only 6’7”. Freshman Joseph “JoJo” Tugler is a fascinating long-term proposition. He’s limited offensively right now, but he’s 6’7” with a 7’6” wingspan, a strong frame, and a good motor. He makes a ton of plays on defense (3.6 STL%, 9.3 BLK%). If he can carve out one thing he does really well on offense, he’ll be an NBA guy.
If Longwood manages to pull off the monumental upset, it’ll likely be due to the play of Walyn Napper. The 6’0” senior is strong and tough with a slick passing package. Still, from an NBA standpoint, he’s undersized and a non-shooter. If I were an NBA team and had to give a Summer League invite to a Lancers player, it would be Michael Christmas. The senior forward stands 6’6” with a pro frame. A 41.1% three-point shooter, Christmas can’t be left open from deep. When opponents close out too hard, he has a legitimate NBA-level first step, and he can explode off one foot to finish above the rim. He’s not much of a passer, and while he contains the ball well on defense, he doesn’t make many plays on that end. Still, his body and inside-out scoring package raised my eyebrows.
#8 Nebraska vs. #9 Texas A&M
The Nebraska Cornhuskers don’t have a surefire NBA guy, but they’ve got some interesting deep cuts. Brice Williams is my favorite of the mix. The 6’7” has a nice dribble-pass-shoot game, shooting 37.7% from deep and averaging 2.5 APG. Defensively, he has a solid level of feel, which helps him post respectable steal and block numbers. He’s a bit of a jack-of-all-trades, master-of-none, and with only decent athleticism, he’s never had a ton of buzz. Juwan Gary is a guy I’ve always loved to watch. He’s a 6’9” energy guy who can defend multiple positions. A 2019 high school graduate, Gary is on the older side and he’s a shaky shooter (32.1% from three, 66.3% from the free throw line). Reink Mast is 6’9” with a huge body. He can pick-and-pop or overpower players on the block. He’s a skilled passer. Defensively, I don’t know what you’d do with him in the NBA. He’ll make a lot of money overseas, though. Keisei Tominaga is an electric sharpshooter, but undersized for the NBA without the playmaking juice to overcome that.
When it comes to the Aggies, my favorite NBA prospect is a “one for the future” type name—Solomon Washington. The 6’7” sophomore looks and moves like an NBA player with a strong 225-pound frame. He’s a defensive specialist. It’s tough to get anywhere against him because he’s so long and agile. He’s a stellar off-ball playmaker (2.0 STL%) who can absolutely sky for blocks as a weakside rim protector (5.4 BLK%). The trouble is that I have no idea what he does in the NBA offensively. He’s a shaky shooter (27.3% from deep) and has never shown much in the way of ball skills (0.8 APG to 0.8 TOV). Wade Taylor IV and Tyrece Radford are a pair of tough-as-nails small guards. Taylor racks up steals on defense and can run a college offense, but he shot under 37% from the field this year. Radford has a fun “surprise skill” as a potent offensive rebounder (2.4 ORB), but he’s never shot well enough for a 6’2” player to generate draft buzz (career 31.8% from three).
#5 Wisconsin vs. #12 James Madison
While he’s probably not a “this year” guy, AJ Storr is a name to know for the Badgers. To say Storr is built like a pro would be an understatement. Storr is 6’6” with a big, solid body. He’s super physical. His strength and handle get him to the rim with regularity. When he doesn’t get all the way to the cup, he has a solid pull-up game. The sophomore still needs to round out his game. His jumper (30.9% from three in regular season play) has to come along. Defensively, he produces below the level you’d expect for someone with his tools. He doesn’t look to pass often enough and gets too sped up, leading to turnovers or forced shots. Still, Storr is a highly capable player who scored 17.2 PPG in Big Ten play. He’s good enough that he’s going to get the time and reps to figure these things out. 6’4” freshman John Blackwell is really interesting, too. He scored 8.1 PPG on 49.5/44.8/80.8 splits in conference games. Blackwell is a good spot up shooter with a quick release, but there’s some real dynamism to him. He has interesting movement patterns and a savvy handle, enabling him to weave through traffic in unpredictable ways before getting buckets. There’s some real craft to how he operates. At his size, he’ll need to be more of a passer and defender for NBA teams to bite, but his base is highly intriguing.
The JMU Bulldogs are fronted by Sun Belt Player of the Year Terrence Edwards. The 6’6” wing may be skinny, but he is slick. He’s going to put pressure on the rim and punish teams when they help. He has a variety of dribble moves to shake defenders and get inside the paint time and time again. His 20.2 AST% is a testament to how he reads opposing defenses. While his 35.4% from deep on the year may seem like a run-of-the-mill number, his consistent demonstrations of off-the-bounce scoring and tough shot-making are enough to prove that he’s more than capable behind the arc. His quickness helps him make plays on defense, too. After scoring 24 points in an upset win over Michigan State to start the year, Edwards has been largely out-of-sight, out-of-mind. But one or more impressive showings against good competition could raise questions about whether the redshirt junior might actually be a “this year guy.”
#4 Duke vs. #13 Vermont
Duke’s Kyle Filipowski has put together a great sophomore campaign. The seven-footer ranks 14th on our consensus board. Size and skill are the keys to the sell. He ended the regular season shooting 35.3% from deep on great volume for a big man. If you close out hard, he can put it on the deck. After only making 50.9% of his halfcourt rim attempts last year, Filipowski got better through contact. This year, he’s made 58% of those shots. He’s improved tremendously as a passer, increasing his assist rate up to 18.4%. On defense, he’s moved with great fluidity and demonstrated better positioning in ball screen coverages. He gets a lot of steals for a big man because of his timing and anticipation.
Still, Filipowski can be frustrating at times. While he’s a better finisher this year, he’s still below where most NBA prospects his size were at the same age. Similarly, his block rate doesn’t grade out that well. He’s not a great leaper and his arms aren’t that long, so he may not be able to anchor a defense. If he’s a four, does he have the athleticism to start at that position? I’m not sure.
Ultimately, where I settle with Filipowski is that he’s good at basketball. His combination of shooting, ball handling, and passing is hard to find at his size. While I wish I trusted him more defensively, he’s leaps and bounds better than he was a year ago. If he gets hot from deep and protects the rim at a high level, it will undoubtedly help his stock. Still, there’s a firm floor for guys this tall and this productive.
6’3” guard Jared McCain landed in the 15th spot on our most recent board. The pitch with him is straight-forward—he gets buckets, and he gets them efficiently. He ended the regular season scoring 13.6 PPG on 45.8/40.6/87.3 splits. His range is limitless, and he’s fantastic off the bounce. McCain converted 38.1% of his pull-up threes. This gravity, combined with his physicality, makes him one of the premier pick-and-roll scorers in college hoops, ranking in Synergy’s 95th percentile on those possessions. While not a mesmerizing playmaker, he has a basic understanding of gravity and knows how to punish help. Plus, at 197 pounds, he checks the “strong body” box for a small guard. Additionally, he plays hard, punching above his weight on the glass on both ends.
Still, I get a little scared with McCain sometimes. It’s hard to know how much playmaking juice he really has. Because he brings so much more off-ball value than Duke’s other guards, he doesn’t get to operate on it as much. That doesn’t mean he can’t do it, but it’s not totally clear how ready he is to run an NBA offense. He’s also a below-the-rim athlete, and his 0.1 BPG is a red flag, even for a small guard.
McCain’s scorching close to the season has rocketed him up boards. If he keeps it up during March Madness and shows more flashes as a passer, that should cement him as a “this year” guy and a first-round pick.
Tyrese Proctor landed 42nd on our board. The 6’5” guard is clearly really competent. He’s an intelligent passer with a creative handle, and rarely will he make a mistake. As a sophomore, he improved both inside and outside the arc, taking his eFG% from 45.9% to 56.3%. Still, he can go frustratingly quiet at times. Despite his smarts and length, his skinny frame and mundane athleticism prevent him from being a more impactful defender. If he has a more dominant and consistent closing stretch, that would help his case significantly.
Senior Jeremy Roach has never gotten much NBA attention because he’s a smaller guard. Still, he’s been a great table setter and he’s become a really good shooter. Sophomore Mark Mitchell had a bad shooting year, but I’m still really interested long-term. At 6’7” with an NBA body and NBA athleticism, Mitchell makes a ridiculous amount of hustle plays. He can guard anybody and he’s an underrated passer. Freshmen Caleb Foster and Sean Stewart have had their moments this year. Foster is a great shooter and good decision-maker, but he needs to figure things out on defense and take a step forward athletically. At 6’9”, Stewart is a non-shooter right now, which creates an uphill battle. Still, he’s a high-energy guy and awesome defensive playmaker with real deal athleticism.
Shamir Bogues is the Vermont player I’ll be monitoring. A fourth-year guard with serious defensive chops (1.9 SPG, 0.5 BPG), Bogues won’t hesitate to bring the fight to the Duke backcourt. He looks, moves, and defends like a pro. He has long arms, he hustles, and he’s extremely disruptive in passing lanes. His NBA case is dicey because he’s never been a shooter (23.7% from deep this year), but his slick handle gets him to the rim and he exhibits smart timing as a passer.
#6 Texas Tech vs. #11 NC State
Texas Tech’s Darrion Williams is a fascinating long-term prospect. He’s 6’6” with a strong body, but he’s fairly ground-bound and slow-footed. Normally, that would take a lot of players out of the mix. Williams, though…he does it all. During Big 12 play, he averaged 13.1 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 2.4 APG, 1.3 SPG, and 0.3 BPG. He’s an excellent connector and glue guy. Williams operates completely within the flow of the offense. He’s beyond selfless. He takes open jumpers and gets inside when it makes sense. He uses his frame to control the glass. His recognition of open teammates and creativity when it comes to passing angles are both sublime. Defensively, his tools hold him back a bit, but his intelligence has been able to bridge the gap at the college level. Williams probably needs to be a more assertive shooter to get over the top (47.1% from deep, but only 5.1 attempts per 100 possessions), but I think he’ll do it. I could see graduate big man Warren Washington getting some team workout looks. He’s 7’0”, he rebounds, and he’s a better passer than most his size.
The NC State Wolfpack is deep, but without much in the way of NBA prospects. Fifth-year guard DJ Horne is undersized at 6’1”, but he has always been productive. He sets the table well, limits his mistakes, and he’s a great shooter (41.3% from three on 6.4 per game). Big man DJ Burns Jr. has long been a cult favorite thanks to his dazzling combination of size (6’9”, 275 pounds) and skill (2.8 APG). I’m also the world’s biggest Casey Morsell enthusiast. He’s a 6’3”, tough as nails guard who plays the right way more than anyone has ever played the right way.
#3 Kentucky vs. Oakland
Buckle up, because the Wildcats have a million prospects.
Let’s start with our fifth-ranked prospect, Reed Sheppard. He’s polarizing. On one hand, he’s an electric sharpshooter. He made an astounding 52.6% of his threes during regular season play while launching 4.4 per game. Thes aren’t standstill jumpers either, he’s pulling up from the logo. Teams cannot afford to give him an inch of space, or he will pull the trigger and make them pay. He boasts quick recognition as a passer, enabling him to average 4.5 APG to only 2.0 TOV. That recognition carries over to the defensive end, where he reads the opposing team’s offense like a book. Add in his lightning-fast hands, and you get his outrageous STL% of 4.7 and BLK% of 2.7. Those numbers are out of this world for a point guard. This well-rounded hyperproductivity led to Sheppard entering the SEC Tournament with an elite BPM of 12.2.
Still, Sheppard has his detractors. He’s only 6’2” with a reported 6’3” wingspan in an NBA that increasingly pushes small guards to the side. Athletically, he doesn’t leap off the page. His handle is pretty straightforward, and he doesn’t create much against more aggressive ball-screen defenses. He doesn’t get deep in the paint a lot. There are questions about how well his defense will scale up to the next level, and even then, how impactful a guard his size can even be on that end in the NBA.
Reed Shepard wasn’t supposed to be this good. But he’s had to make a lot of people look themselves in the mirror and say, “You know what, I had these preconceived notions about Sheppard, but maybe I’m too low on him.” What greater way to do that yet again than by winning a national championship?
Fellow guard Rob Dillingham slots in at #9 on our board. The 6’2” guard is an unbelievable shot-maker. He ended the regular season at 44.5% from deep. Similar to Sheppard, the degree of difficulty was off the charts. Dillingham has the fancy stuff—the long range, the slick dribble combinations to get himself space. But he’s a better “details” creator than he gets credit for, manipulating screens well to generate advantages. When he gets inside, his slick movement patterns, body control, and touch make him an effective finisher. While he may not be the most consistent or advanced passer, he’s miles ahead of where he was a year ago on that front.
Where Dillingham and Sheppard differ is in terms of their defense. Dillingham can use his quickness to generate steals, but he’s generally a negative on this end. Kentucky has had to pull him because of his shortcomings on that end at times. He has painful off-ball lapses, and at 175 pounds, he’ll be a prime bullying mismatch target in the NBA.
With Dillingham, the question is, “can his offense outweigh his defense, and if so, to what extent?” Dillingham could go nuclear on offense to further make his NBA Draft case. However, I believe the best thing for his stock would be to lock in on defense. If he can play tougher on the ball and more engaged off of it, I think teams may feel better about rolling the dice on a smaller, skinnier guard come June.
Justin Edwards ranked 46th on our board, but he’s climbing rapidly. A highly touted recruit, the 6’8” freshman sputtered out of the gate. His passing feel was whatever, his rebounding and defense were just okay, and his shot wasn’t falling. While he hasn’t been a well-rounded superstar, Edwards has started to knock down his shots. During SEC play, he scored 8.4 PPG on 53.7/50.0/84 splits. Ultimately, he’s a 6’8” dude with good athletic traits who got up to 38.4% from deep during regular season play. It’s hard to be low on someone like that. If Edwards can sustain his momentum and then some through tournament play, he’ll be back in the first round on most boards.
A lot of guys on this team are still in the general mix. 6’4” graduate Antonio Reeves is one of the best scorers in the country, and he’s able to do it in an off-ball, complimentary way. He’s scoring 20.2 PPG on 50.7/44.0/88.0 splits. His poor defensive play, age, and wiry frame will work against him, but he’s going to get a real opportunity. 6’3” freshman DJ Wagner has his fans. He’s a scrappy guard who gets into the paint and makes solid decisions, but his shot needs work (30.7% from deep). 6’9” graduate Tre Mitchell can do a little bit of everything, and knows how to play a role but doesn’t have a signature skill to hang his hat on. Sophomore Adou Thiero is an awesome athlete and defensive playmaker. Still, he can go too fast and his jumper isn’t there yet. I quite like Zvonimir Ivisic as a backup center bet. The 7’3” big man has his lapses, but he’s huge, can protect the rim, and he can space the floor (37.5% from deep in regular season play). 7’0” Aaron Bradshaw has a pretty stroke for his size but doesn’t interest me much as a 2024 guy. He’s a lackluster rebounder, his defense needs a lot of refinement, and he needs to get stronger. 6’11” Ugonna Onyenso has little offensive polish, but his 15.1 BLK% is difficult to ignore at a certain point when compiling a board.
The Oakland Golden Grizzlies are headlined by Trey Townsend. The 6’6” fourth-year player does a bit of everything. With averages of 16.9 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 3.1 APG, and 1.3 SPG, he’s a critical part of their roster construction. He’s a physical player who competes exceptionally hard. Townsend also reads the floor quickly and rewards open teammates when help comes. Defensively, his strength and ability to slide his feet goes a long way. It’s tough to pin down an NBA role for him, though. Most of his work is done with his back to the basket. While he’s a 34.7% three-point shooter, he takes less than one a game. If Townsend can hit some jumpers and hang with Kentucky’s jumbo frontcourt, there might be something to him.
#7 Florida vs. #10, the winner of Boise State vs. Colorado
The Florida Gators have a number of “almost there” prospects, but no one in our current Top 60. Coming into the year, sophomore shooting guard Riley Kugel had a significant amount of buzz. He’d closed his freshman year on a heat. Unfortunately, that momentum didn’t carry over. Kugel was moved to a bench role later in the year. That said, he’s been more efficient since then, knocking down 39.6% of his threes in conference play while reducing his turnovers. A hot March could get him back on the horse before next season. Junior guard Walter Clayton Jr. led the team in scoring after transferring up from Iona. He’s a bit overtaxed in a leading role, causing his three-point percentage to dip from 43.1% to 35.9%. He’s also struggled with turnover issues at times. That said, I think he could really take off next year now that he’s adjusted to the high-major game. WCJ is a small guard at 6’2”, but he’s strong, vertically explosive, defends, and he can shoot the cover off the ball. 6’4” grad Zyon Pullin is an extremely reliable table setter who has gotten more comfortable from three. Still, he’s a somewhat tentative shooter and lackluster defender. 6’10” graduate Tyrese Samuel is solid in a lot of areas but isn’t special in any one regard. I’m extremely bullish on freshman Alex Condon. At 6’11”, he runs like a gazelle, can finish above the rim, and plays like his hair is on fire. Still, there’s skill here. He’s an okay shooter and solid passer, especially for his age and height. If he can get his shot going, his defensive versatility and motor make him a dream NBA four man. 7’1” big man Micah Handlogten had a little bit of difficulty adapting to SEC physicality and battled injuries, but remains a name to watch heading into his junior year. 6’9” freshman Thomas Haugh is athletic, defensively versatile, and is a solid shooter. If he can show more consistency and continue to develop, he should get on radars in time.
Boise State may not have a splashy 2024 name, but they’ve got a few guys who have been on Sicko Radars for a while. 6’7” junior Tyson Degenhart leads their squad in scoring with 16.8 PPG on 51.9/33.7/78.8 splits. He’s really strong and loves to boss around weaker players on the interior. He’s got a solid jumper that I wish he used more often and he’s a trustworthy decision maker. Defensively, he’s a bit between positions due to his iffy agility and lack of vertical pop. 6’7” senior Chibuzo Agbo looks and moves like a pro. He shoots like one, too, having converted 39.3% of his career triples. If he can grow as a decision-maker and defender, NBA teams will be interested. 6’8” junior forward O’mar Stanley similarly has an NBA frame. He’s a versatile defender who can guard down while providing real rim protection. Stanley has some ball skills and can put it on the deck, too. If he becomes a more consistent shooter (33.3% on 1.5 per game), it will really open things up for him.
When it comes to the Colorado Buffaloes, teams picking at the top of the draft will be locked on to Cody Williams. The 6’8” freshman is currently the third-ranked prospect on our board.
It’s easy to get excited about Williams. He has a great frame that should fill out well. His signature skill is his finishing. He is truly elite in that sense. Williams has converted an absurd 73.9% of his halfcourt shots at the rim this season. He gets up well off one foot, has the body control to contort and finish, and his touch is exceptional. His handle isn’t out of this world, and he’s not a “break guys down off the dribble” guy, but he’s functional with the ball in his hands and he takes long strides to the cup. While there were concerns about his shot coming into the year, he’s made 42.1% of his threes and 72.1% of his free throws this year, the volume has been low. Given his physical tools, he should be able to guard multiple positions at the next level.
Unfortunately, it’s not all sunshine and rainbows. Williams’s game can go astoundingly quiet at times, which is frustrating given his skills and tools. He had a 9.5 DREB% this year, which would be a red flag mark for a guard, not just a 6’8” guy. Given how few threes he took, it’s tough to be sold on the shot. While he can make some nice plays as a second-side playmaker, his pass placement and handle through contact aren’t fully actualized. Defensively, he doesn’t make off-ball plays as much as someone with his frame and feel should. On ball, he gets beat more easily than he should due to his upright posture and tendency to turn and chase too easily.
It’s easy to look at Williams and get excited. He’s an awesome finisher who exhibits feel and has great size. Conversely, he feels invisible at times, and his game can leave scouts wanting more. This will be Williams’ last chance in a college setting to leave an impression. Interestingly enough, big, physical dudes like Degenhart and Stanley will provide him with an interesting “first four” challenge.” One of his quieter nights could end things on a sour note, but a big finale could lock up a Top 5 spot for him.
6’9” senior Tristan Da Silva ranks 30th on our board. The sell is very straightforward—he’s tall, he shoots, and he knows how to play. Over the past three seasons, Da Silva has shot a combined 38.3% from beyond the arc. Even better, he’s increased his volume every single year. He has sharp instincts as a passer. He’s not flashy, but he’ll whip the ball to teammates in a hurry when he finds an opening. Da Silva’s length and feel have enabled him to consistently post solid steal and block numbers. He has a good three-point percentage, strong assist-to-turnover ratio, and decent defensive metrics at 6’9” but a solid floor on his draft stock.
The question then turns to this: how much upside is there? Da Silva is on the older size, and while he’s definitely gotten better over the years, it’s unclear how much potential he still has. He’s had issues playing through physicality on offense at times, which makes for a trickier NBA projection. On defense, he can be a bit of a clunky lateral mover, and stronger players may overpower him.
Da Silva has long been a guy who is reasonably draftable in that 20-45 range. Now, he’ll have one last chance in the college setting to get teams more excited about him.
KJ Simpson ranks 49th on our board. At 6’2”, the junior is on the smaller side. That said, he does a bit of everything. Simpson has had a great shooting season (45.3% from deep). His 4.9 APG to 2.2 TOV show that he’s a trustworthy operator. He overdelivers on the glass with 5.7 RPG. Defensively, he does his best to compensate for his size with quick hands and well-timed gambles in passing lanes. There is a stigma against small guards, and Simpson will be looking to prove that he’s special enough to be an exception.
#2 Marquette vs. #15 Western Kentucky
Marquette has a talented and entertaining mix of players. The highest-rated player based on our most recent consensus board is Tyler Kolek, who slotted 28th. The 6’3” senior is physically strong, tipping the scales at a stocky 195 pounds. He’s one of the best passers in college hoops, finishing the regular season with averages of 7.6 APG to only 2.8 TOV. He sees the entirety of the floor at all times, but his deliveries are what take things to another level. His pass placement is sublime, and he’s able to fit the ball through impossibly tight windows. Despite having only a decent first step, Kolek gets to the rim a lot thanks to his power and ability to manipulate screens. There, he converts 57.9% of his shots. When Kolek gets downhill, his finishing and passing bag make for serious trouble.
Where things get trickier, and why I’m personally lower on Kolek, is when it comes to the questions of how his shooting and athleticism will scale up. He’s only converted 30.6% of his pull-up threes, and he almost never pulls up in the mid-range. It’s going to be easy for NBA defenses to sag on him, and when they do, I’m not sure he’s going to be able to punish them. While he’s a good college finisher, it’s harder to imagine him getting all the way to the rim against NBA defenses and converting at the same clip, given that he’s more ground-bound. A tough and calculated defender, I don’t think NBA guards will eat him alive, but his versatility will be limited.
Kolek will make for a tricky evaluation. On one hand, he’s exceptionally smart, hyper-competitive, and an outstanding passer. Conversely, his lack of a pull-up game and average athletic traits in a league that is unkind to small guards are serious obstacles. If Kolek lights the nets on fire in March, it will be easier for teams to slot him in the first round.
Oso Ighodaro ranks 40th on our board. The 6’11” fourth-year player is a tremendous passer for his size. He’s posted a 17.5 AST% over the past two seasons. Ighodaro is a top-tier handoff orchestrator who can wire the ball to anyone at any time. Plus, he’s a potent roll man who can take off from far away and still finish above the rim. He’s an agile mover who is more than comfortable when switched down the lineup on defense.
Where Ighodaro differs from a passing big man such as a Trayce Jackson-Davis is that there are concerns about how he can anchor a defense. His 4.9 BLK% at the end of regular season play is a poor mark for someone who spent so much time at the five. Often, he’ll get into position, but he does a really poor job of tracking the ball with his hands at the basket. He’s not that strong, and traditional bigs move him around pretty easily. On offense, he’s terrified to shoot outside of floater range, but he’s also not powerful enough to bully his way there against bigger opponents.
Ighodaro finds himself in the classic “5 on offense, 4 on defense” conundrum. Unless something changes, he’ll probably require a particular fit in order to be a big minute player. That said, he’s super talented with a relatively rare skill set for a player his size. An explosive tournament run could make teams less leery of the particulars and more likely to say, “let’s just take the guy who is good at basketball.”
Kam Jones has a chance to be a sneaky late riser. The 6’4” junior is putting up 16.7 PPG on 50.7/41.1/73.0 splits. He’s got a lethal pull-up game from deep (43.9% on pull-up threes), but he’s also been good at the rim. While he’s not a true point guard, he limits his mistakes, and has posted a 2:1 ATO each of the last two seasons. He guards well enough within a team concept. Positionally, he’s in a tough spot, as he’s small for a wing but not a true initiator. Like Ighodaro, a hot run could make an NBA team say “let’s just go with it” if he decides to throw his name into the draft.
I’ve also got a soft spot for 6’7” junior David Joplin. He’s got a strong body and a gorgeous stroke, going 38.7% from deep over the past two seasons. His 3.6 BLK%, 1.7 STL%, and NBA frame give him three-and-D potential. Offensively, he needs to look to pass more, as he gets way too locked in to hunting his shot. Keep an eye on him for next year.
The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers don’t have much in the way of NBA prospects. Don McHenry is an interesting name to watch. The 6’2” junior guard can get microwave hot. He can put it in the bucket at all three levels, leading the team in scoring (15.2 PPG) on 46.6/37.1/85.9 splits. Physically, he’s fighting an uphill battle, as he’s skinny and not much of a defender.
Midwest Region
#1 Purdue vs. #16, the winner of Montana State vs. Grambling
Zach Edey needs no introduction. The 7’4” big man has dominated college basketball for the past two seasons. It’s not just that he’s tall; he’s also strong and he doesn’t gas out. The man weighs 300 pounds. His end-to-end speed has improved, and he’s managed to play over 30 MPG in back-to-back seasons. He’s an unstoppable interior force on offense. Even fouling Edey doesn’t slow him down, as he’s a 71.8% free throw shooter on over ten attempts per game. Double-teaming doesn’t work either, as he’s a smart passer who reads defensive rotations quickly. He dominates on the glass. Teams avoid going into the paint when he’s anchoring the Boilermakers’ defense. He’s a nightmare to deal with.
Still, he remains a lightning rod in draft circles. On one hand, he’s outrageously productive, posting two straight seasons with a BPM over 15. His sheer size, power, and skill is an exceptionally rare combination. Conversely, NBA big men are now more mobile and agile than ever before. He struggles mightily against pick-and-pop plays, and the association’s “defensive three seconds” rule could trip him up defensively. Additionally, underdog teams have managed to knock off Purdue early in the tournament these past few years. When Fairleigh Dickinson did it last year, a big part of their gameplan was making Edey guard in space.
This is going to be Zach Edey’s last hurrah in college hoops. The stakes couldn’t be any higher. If Edey is able to answer questions about how well he holds up in space under the brightest of lights, there will be much less contention around him as a first-round pick. However, if Purdue falters early in the tournament yet again, the scoffers will be more than ready to make their voices heard.
Montana State is led by guard Robert Ford III (no relation to former Toronto mayor Rob Ford). While undersized at 6’0”, he’s undoubtedly their best player, scoring at all three levels and racking up a comical 2.9 SPG. But from a pro scouting perspective, my eyes will be on Brian Goracke. The 6’5” junior can really shoot the three. While his 36.5% mark from long range may seem run-of-the-mill, he’s able to hit from long range off movement. Plus, when he goes downhill, he can get up off one foot and finish above the rim. His 25-point outing against Weber State demonstrated how dangerous he can be when he gets going. He’s not much of a playmaker for others, and he doesn’t move that well off the ball on defense, but he’s still got eligibility ahead of him.
Grambling State doesn’t have a lot of buzzy names. That said, keep an eye out for Tra’michael Moton. The 6’1” guard can shoot, defend, and pass a little bit. He’s short and slender, but he does a lot of things well. Junior Dozier Kintavious is on the way up. He’s also short, but a bit stockier than Moton from a frame standpoint. While his shot isn’t all the way there, he’s a good inside-the-arc scorer who puts a lot of pressure on the rim. It would be nice to see him build some momentum for next year in tournament play. These two guards against Rob Ford III might not be the greatest prospect matchup, but you can convince your significant other that it will be better than most episodes of House Hunters.
#8 Utah State vs. #9 TCU
When I think of Utah State, the first place my head goes is to Great Osobor. The 6’8” junior is a powerhouse with a big, muscular physique. He’s also an extremely talented basketball player. He averaged 17.6 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 2.9 APG, 1.5 BPG, and 1.3 SPG during regular season play. He’s everywhere, all the time. Osobor throws around his weight to get easy buckets and rebounds. Still, he shows refinement at times as a passer and defender. He’s an undersized big who can’t/doesn’t shoot, which will hold him back. But part of me wonders if this late bloomer’s sheer skill and motor can get him NBA looks when the time comes. Darius Brown II’s age will be held against him as a sixth-year guy, but he’s a fantastic orchestrator (6.4 TOV to 1.8 TOV). He’s also a polished mid-range and three-point shooter. At 6’2”, NBA teams may be reluctant to bite on him, but don’t be surprised if he gets some looks. 6’3” senior Ian Martinez is an interesting three-and-D guard (38.5% from three, 1.7 STL%, 2.9 BLK%). He really knows how to play off the ball on offense. Defensively, he’s a ridiculous shot blocker for his size. He’s a limited playmaker (1.7 APG to 1.9 TOV), which hurts his NBA prospects. 6’3” freshman Mason Falslev is another interesting stat sheet stuffer (11.6 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 2.5 APG, 1.3 SPG), but his shot needs to improve (30.7% from three, 65.2% on free throws.
The TCU Horned Frogs have a handful of interesting names to watch. Emanuel Miller missed our Top 60, but he’s been in mine for most of the season. The 6’7” graduate is a “knows how to play” prospect with a motor that doesn’t shut off. He’s strong, too. The end result—extremely well-rounded production. He’s coming into the tournament averaging 15.9 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 2.7 APG, 1.1 SPG, and 0.4 APG. While his shot has always been a question, his 38.2% from three on a career-high 2.3 attempts per game is encouraging. If the shot sticks, his quick-thinking decision-making ability and defensive versatility should enable him to carve out an NBA roster spot for years to come.
6’1” guard Jameer Nelson Jr. will get some looks, too. He’s got an extremely powerful frame, which is helpful given his lack of length. He’s always been a pest on defense, with a career average of 2.0 APG. Nelson is also a steady decision-maker and good mid-range scorer. His jumper (career 31.2% from three) holds him back. 6’7” senior Micah Peavy is quite similar to Miller, but further behind the shooting and athleticism curve.
#5 Gonzaga vs. #12 McNeese
While the Gonzaga Bulldogs may not be as traditionally loaded, there are still some players here with a shot at the NBA. Anton Watson received a G League Elite Camp Invite last year, and he’s probably in line for another. The 6’9” graduate does a little bit of everything. He’s a super versatile defender, savvy passer, and a physical rebounder. Offensively, he’s more of a dirty work, cleanup guy than most modern fours. His shot (career 30.1% from three, 62.4% on free throws) remains a major issue. Teams will want to see an assertive Watson who is knocking down jumpers. He’s a deep cut, but I’m very partial to 6’10” redshirt junior Ben Gregg. Like Watson, his motor is off the charts, and he’s going to make every effort play imaginable. He too can guard multiple positions. Gregg isn’t quite as clever as Watson from a passing standpoint, but he’s solid enough. That said, he’s a much better and more willing shooter. Gregg made 36.7% of his threes this year. Size, shooting, and defense? Sign me up. His counting numbers may not pop (8.9 PPG), but the framework is awesome, and I’m buying that he’s capable of more than he gets to show. Junior guard Ryan Nembhard is a talented pick-and-roll operator who is quicker than a hiccup. But at 6’0” with a skinny frame and inconsistent jumper, he still has something to prove. Fellow small guard Nolan Hickman (a 6’2” junior) quietly had his best season, scoring 13.9 PPG on 46.3/40.7/88.3 splits. Where he stacks up in terms of defense and physicality at the next level remains a question.
Will Wade and the McNeese Cowboys are a deep team. However, there’s a clear star of the show, and that’s Shahada Wells. The graduate guard is a super producer, averaging 17.8 PPG, 4.5 RPG, and 4.8 APG. His slick handle and dribble moves allow him to get where he wants. He pressures the rim well, but he’s also an elite pull-up scorer (42.3% on pull-up twos, 39.3% on pull-up threes). He’s got solid passing vision and picks up on openings quickly. The best thing about Wells is his defense. He averages 3.0 SPG in the aggressive Cowboys defensive scheme. He’s got quick hands on the ball, but off of it, he always knows where to position himself and how to get into passing lanes. As a 6’0” graduate, his age and height may prevent him from getting serious NBA looks, but he’ll be a pro somewhere for as long as he wants to be. But who knows, maybe if makes life miserable for Gonzaga’s guards and pulls off an upset, teams will give him real consideration.
#4 Kansas vs. #13 Samford
A red-hot streak to close the season has made Johnny Furphy the top-ranked Kansas prospect on our board. He’s currently 13th on our board. The pitch is simply—he’s a 6’9” late blooming freshman who scored 11.4 PPG on 49.6/36.5/78.5 splits in Big-12 play. He’s got a great shooting stroke for someone his size, and he’s great at relocating into open spaces on the perimeter. Heck, he’s a great off-ball mover in general. He cuts well and makes a ton of hustle plays on the offensive glass. While he doesn’t get to operate much with the ball, he’s a solid decision-maker when chased off the line.
Personally, I’m a bit lower on Furphy than our consensus ranking. I’m not sold on his first step, and he doesn’t get all the way to the rim on his own accord very often. If he isn’t knocking down shots, I think there’s a real cap on how much value he can bring. Defensively, he’s got a ways to go. He competes, but his hands are low too often, and opponents get by him way more often than one might expect given his sheer size.
The NCAA Tournament will provide Furphy with one final springboard. Size and shooting will never go out of style. But if he can show more as a driver, passer, and defender, he could cement himself as a Top 20 prospect.
18th-ranked Kevin McCullar Jr. has seen his stock take a hit lately. After shooting well to start the year, the 6’7” graduate only made 29.7% of his threes during conference play. Additionally, he’s been hobbled by injuries consistently throughout his entire college career. A 23-year-old non-shooter with injury concerns is a tough sell in the first round.
Still, it’s hard to quit McCullar. He’s got one of the highest motors in college basketball. While he hasn’t shown it off as much this year due to his increased usage, he’s a phenomenal defender. His ground coverage, awareness, and timing are all out of this world. He’s got a solid handle and counters to help him get inside, and he’s a good passer when defenses collapse on him. While the shot is concerning, it’s also worth noting that McCullar has never been shy about letting it fly. If nothing else, he’s not tentative.
McCullar is an “eye of the beholder” prospect. On one hand, he’s older, a shaky shooter, and has faced injury concerns. Conversely, he brings a combination of size, skill, and effort that has consistently allowed his teams to compete at a high level. If McCullar (who is currently battling injury) can get through the tournament unscathed, rack up some wins, and knock down shots, he might be able to climb back up boards.
Hunter Dickinson will probably get looks whenever his time comes. The 7’1” big plays with a lot of fire. He’s got real skill as a passer and has a nice jump shot for someone his size. Defensively, he’s not quick enough to switch nor bouncy enough to protect the rim at an NBA level at this stage. If a guy like Luka Garza has been able to hang around, though, that means Dickinson has a shot.
On the Samford side of the coin, Achor Achor is one of my favorite sleepers. The 6’9” junior is a late bloomer who posted mundane numbers at the JuCo level before joining the Bulldogs. Since January, he’s averaged 15.9 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 1.8 APG, 2.0 BPG, and 0.7 SPG. He’s scoring efficiently, too, with 61.3/45.9/72.2 splits during that stretch. He’s a good finisher, displaying toughness and bounce off one foot at the rim. He’s physical, screening hard and mixing it up inside on defense. He’s smart, communicating on defense, using his timing to disrupt plays, and displaying some creative passing flashes. Achor will probably need to be a more willing and consistent three-point shooter to garner NBA interest. He’s a little short and slim to play the five at the next level. Athletically, he’s more good than exceptional. Still, given his rapid upward trajectory, I wouldn’t even consider writing him off. A strong tournament outing could start to get his hype train rolling. If he shows out or even holds his own against the likes of KJ Adams and Hunter Dickinson, it will be worth noting.
#6 South Carolina vs. #11 Oregon
South Carolina’s Collin Murray-Boyles ranked 25th on our most recent board. To be honest, I’ve probably talked about CMB behind the scenes more than any other player over the past two months. He’s extremely polarizing and everyone has an opinion about him.
On one hand, he’s 6’7” and he can’t shoot. He ended regular season play with zero made threes and a 68.4% free throw percentage. That’s scary, and if he’s not going to shoot, he will require a particular roster construction in order to thrive. Few guys go from that level of non-shooter in college to being an okay NBA shooter. Conversely, the good stuff is really good. He’s long, he’s strong, and he’s frighteningly agile for a 231-pound man. Few can put him in trouble on an island. He thinks the game at a high level, which makes him an impactful help defender. His 2.8 STL% and 4.3 BLK% are both great marks. He’s also a great rebounder and stellar passer (18.1 AST%).
There are always “if he shoots it” prospects. With CMB, the stakes are extremely high on that bet. If he can’t shoot at all, or if he’s well below average, his lack of height will put a harsh ceiling on him. But if he even gets a near-league-average level as a shooter, the rest of skill set is immensely valuable. He’s one of the trickiest evaluations in this class. How he performs under the bright lights of March Madness could help clear up the complicated picture he has painted for scouts.
I also have some interest in Ta’Lon Cooper as an Exhibit-10/G League type guy. He’s 6’4”, built like a tank, shoots the lights out, makes great passes, and defends his tail off. He’s older as a graduate prospect, and he’s never scored more than 10 PPG. He just feels like he could be a “won’t get you killed” bench guard in the mold of Shaq Harrison or Ryan Arcidiacono, but with a jumper.
For the Ducks, Kwame Evans Jr. will be the marquee name to monitor. He’s the 29th-ranked prospect on our board. A 6’9” freshman, Evans has a modern NBA four’s game. He’s a really sharp connective passer (1.1 APG to 0.8 TOV) who keeps the ball moving and limits his mistakes. Defensively, his length and feel shine. He can use his long arms to poke the ball loose and intercept passes (3.4 STL%). Evans also has strong help instincts as a shot blocker (5.1 BLK%).
Where things get a little tricky for Evans is that he’s a good but not great athlete. That raises questions about the scalability of his defensive production. He’s also not quite there yet as a shooter. While he did make 78.4% of his free throws and exhibit a willingness to let it fly from deep, he’s only converted 27.4% of his threes this year. He’s also been up-and-down from a production standpoint. Without elite athleticism, his shaky shot and inconsistent output become more concerning.
Still, the upside with Evans is tantalizing. Guys with his instincts and length are valuable. Oftentimes, those two traits alone are enough to buy them developmental patience and opportunities. However, NBA teams may be more trepidatious, as we rank Evans higher than other outlets. He’ll need to show consistency in order to get front offices more ready to buy in this year.
Jermaine Couisnard is a rock-solid “not quite wing” type who can do a little bit of everything at 6’4”. He’s a willing shooter who sets the table well. I’d expect him to get some team workouts. 6’0” freshman Jackson Shelstad is undersized, but he’s a slick operator. He’s got a tantalizing combination of shiftiness and NBA range that will get him into the conversation at some point. 6’11” center N’Faly Dante is one of those, “not exciting but clearly good” prospects. I’d expect to see him at G League Elite Camp. He’s physically strong but light enough on his feet to bring some defensive versatility. He rebounds, protects the rim, and finishes efficiently. Dante probably won’t change an NBA franchise, and he’s been set back by injuries at points. But he’s good enough and the important stuff to earn a two-way.
#3 Creighton vs. #14 Akron
Creighton’s top prospect on our board is Trey Alexander at 32nd. The 6’4” guard measured with a giant wingspan at the NBA combine last year, and he plays bigger than his listed weight of 185 pounds. He’s stuffed the stat sheet this year with 17.5 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 4.9 APG, 1.2 SPG, and 0.5 BPG. Alexander is a tremendous ball screen operator and exceedingly difficult for defenders to telegraph. He’s great at finding ways to get himself space and he’s an elite mid-range scorer (51.8% on pull-up twos). Defensively, he’s fundamentally sound and does a great job of navigating screens. His length and multiple efforts have consistently made him one of the better shot-blocking guards in college hoops.
Where you settle on Alexander comes down to the shot. He shot 32.1% from deep during the regular season. Guards with shooting problems are often a no-go for front offices. However, last year, he shot 41% last year. His other indicators (mid-range pull-ups, 82.1% from the free throw line) are as good as you can get. If he starts to make threes at a higher clip to close the year, there won’t be much of a dispute about him as a Top 30 guy.
Baylor Scheierman sits at 54th on our board. The 6’7” grad is a career 39% three-point shooter, but that undersells his acumen. He’s great in transition, he can knock them down off screens, and he’s more than comfortable pulling up from deep. When teams chase him off the line, he has stellar vision. His passing skills, combined with his rebounding and shooting, make him a legit grab-and-go guy. He’s tailor-made for early offense.
Unfortunately, he’s got some athletic shortcomings. His first step is poor and he’s not a great lateral mover. The Bluejays hide him a lot defensively. There are real concerns about how much he can do inside the arc and if he can hang defensively on an NBA floor. He’s a player who can move the needle with strong defensive play in the big dance.
7’0” Ryan Kalkbrenner will draw NBA interest, too. He’s a cleanup big man who averaged 17.1 PPG on 68.3 TS% along with 3.0 BPG during regular season play. The drawback with Kalkbrenner is that he’s skinny and a subpar rebounder, raising questions about if he can anchor an NBA defense as effectively as he has in college. If he holds it down against other traditional bigs, that should help his case.
Akron’s Enrique Freeman is an interesting player. He’s 6’7” and he looks like a guy who could play as an undersized four in the NBA, physically speaking. He’s strong but he moves well. His motor is absurd, and he’s a force on the glass. His 12.9 RPG make him the top rebounder in men’s Division I basketball. If Kalkbrenner doesn’t box him out, he’ll pay. A skinny big like Kalkbrenner and an undersized big like Freeman should provide an interesting litmus test for each guy. But back to Freeman—he shot 37% from deep this year, but the volume was really low. He’s not much of a passer. If he doesn’t shoot it, I don’t know that there’s an NBA place for him. But if he does, he could be a real-deal rotation player. NBA teams will want to see him let it fly while displaying his outrageous rebounding talents against Creighton.
#7 Texas vs. #10, the winner of Virginia vs. Colorado State
Texas sophomore Dillon Mitchell ranked 57th on our most recent board. The 6’8” sophomore came into college as a highly-touted recruit, but his lack of NBA scalability has hurt his draft stock. Mitchell doesn’t shoot. He’s attempted eight threes this year and missed all of them. Still, he’s remained intriguing as a high-octane defender and finisher. His strength, quickness, bounce, and technique allow him to guard almost anybody. While his range is limited, he made 61.1% of his twos this year. He also tripled his assist output, showing that he’s not totally bereft of skills. If he can show some offensive juice, that should help him out.
March Madness legend Max Abmas will get some looks. He’s a tiny guard, but the man can shoot exceptionally well from deep behind the NBA three-point line. He’s also transformed his game from being more of a pure gunner to a more traditional point guard, and he deserves credit for that. Dylan Disu may benefit from a big stage. At 6’9”, Disu has some playmaking chops and he’s a good scorer from the mid-range in. After struggling from deep the past two seasons, he made 50% of his threes on 78 attempts this year. Still, his shooting motion, where his guide hand sometimes comes completely off the ball, leaves questions remaining. On defense, he’s able to cover multiple positions well. I think he’s worth a two-way, but a big March could bump him up.
Ryan Dunn is the Virginia Cavaliers’ top prospect, ranking 17th on our board. One thing is clear—Dunn is an elite defensive prospect. I don’t say that frivolously or without considering my words. The 6’8” sophomore is genuinely special. He posted a BLK% of 10.5 and a STL% of 3.1, which is something I don’t recall ever seeing before. He’s not one of those dudes who just gambles a lot, either. He can lock down the ball. He’s got a powerful frame, smooth feet, and exceptional balance. His ground coverage and rotations are out of this world. It’s like watching someone play a video game with unlimited turbo turned on and stamina turned off. The guy can go full speed in one direction, then immediately start going in a different direction without any lag time. Per Synergy, opponents have a 34.7 eFG% when being guard by Dunn. It’s obscene.
However, the offense…isn’t great. The good news is that his feel helps him know when to cut. His tools and strength help him finish effectively at the rim against anyone. He’s a potent straight-line driver, and he actually makes some nice dump-off passes when rim protectors come his way. That said, Dunn can’t shoot right now, and he doesn’t like to do it. He passed up a lot of open looks and missed a hefty majority of the ones he took, going 20.6% from deep on one attempt per game. The free throws aren’t an encouraging indicator, as Dunn went 53.3% there, too.
Dunn can be tough to assess. The offense is a huge problem, but the defense is good that it might not totally matter. If there is a way that a team can surround him with shooters and park him in the dunker spot, everything will be a lot easier for him. Lining him up as a small ball five is also a little precarious, as him guarding a five is less enticing in many situations. The bottom line is, someone this good at one side of the ball should warrant serious consideration. This may be Dunn’s final chance to show that he’s got some offensive juice in a real game setting before he goes pro.
Reece Beekman slots in at 48th on our board. The 6’3” senior guard has been on the cusp for a while. Much like Dunn, he’s a great defender. His 4.1 STL% and 2.0 BLK% may seem uninspiring next to Dunn’s metrics, but those are genuinely great marks for a guard prospect. He’s also a clever playmaker who makes advanced passing reads and takes great care of the ball. A career 32.2% from deep on lower volume, NBA teams still worry about how effective Beekman can be on offense at the next level. Beekman doesn’t quite have the athletic pop that someone like an Alex Caruso has, which makes his shooting woes more problematic. If he lets it fly and gets hot in March, that may ease some of the concerns about his translation.
For the Colorado State Rams, Nique Clifford is a fascinating player to watch. He’s ranked 33rd on our consensus board. Clifford is 6’6” and can comfortably guard 1 through 4 at the college level. He’s stocky but quick. Defensively, he racks up steals and blocks as a help defender (1.5 SPG, 0.9 BPG). Clifford rebounds like a much larger player (8.2 RPG). Offensively, his slick handle and passing prowess are impressive for his size. He has the pop to finish above the rim and he’s converted 38.2% of his threes this year.
Clifford’s shot is still a bit questionable, though. He started hot but shot only 32.8% from deep during conference play. His shooting motion is slow and he doesn’t take a lot of threes (5.9 per 100 possessions). While he’s a productive defensive playmaker, he tends to leave his feet too easily and he can be overzealous as a helper. He’s sort of a jack-of-all-trades, master of none. If the shot isn’t there, it’s tough to totally bite on what he’s bringing to the table. If he gets his jumper going again under the bright lights, he’ll be tough to deny.
Graduate guard Isaiah Stevens will get dinged for his height at 6’0”, but the dude can play. His passing wizardry (7.0 APG) and outstanding pull-up game (50.9% on pull-up twos, 40% on pull-up threes) are ultimately too difficult to hand waive. He’ll be in that E10/two-way mix come June. Standing out against a defender of Beekman’s caliber would do wonders for his perception.
#2 Tennessee vs. #15 Saint Peter’s
Have I told you lately how much I love Dalton Knecht? I covered Tennessee’s Knecht prior to the start of the season during my No Stone Unturned series. A 6’6” sniper with above-the-rim athleticism, Knecht transferred into Tennessee as a genuine NBA prospect. However, few, if any, expected him to surpass his productivity at Northern Colorado while playing in the SEC. He’s currently ranked 11th on our consensus Big Board.
Knecht might be the best three-level scorers in college hoops. He concluded the regular season averaging 21.4 PPG on 47.4/40.5/75.8 splits. During SEC play, he hit 42.4% of his threes on 7.3 attempts per game. He has logo range and he’s capable off movement, having converted 38.9% of his threes off screens and 41.0% of his transition triples. Chase him off the line, and you’re opening yourself up to a potential poster dunk. If he can’t get to the rim, he has a mid-range bag at his disposal. Knecht may not be an advanced playmaker, but his 13.5 AST% isn’t shabby, and he rarely turns it over. Additionally, he gets off the ball quickly when his look isn’t there.
Detractors will point to Knecht’s defense as his weak spot. Still, his 1.3 STL% and 2.8 BLK% during the regular season aren’t red flag numbers. Also, per Hoop-Explorer, Tennessee wasn’t much worse defensively with him on the floor. When a guy is 6’6” with broad shoulders and positive athletic traits, he’s probably not going to be a total disaster. Yes, his footwork needs to be cleaned up, as does his off-ball processing. But I don’t see Knecht as a target who will be played off the floor at the next level.
Knecht is going to be 23 on draft night. As a result, there may be a cap on how high teams are willing to take him. Still, the extent to which he set the SEC on fire this season should not be overlooked. Additionally, Knecht being a “late growth spurt guy” who’s simply peaking later in his development arc needs to be taken into consideration. There may be a preconceived notion of how high a player this old should be taken, but Knecht might push that to the limit with a big closing stretch.
Fellow Tennessee graduate Josiah-Jordan James has been perpetually on the cusp. He’s 6’6” with long arms and a strong frame. His physical tools and mentality allow him to guard almost anybody effectively. Offensively, he’s a mixed bag. He’s become a good decision-maker with regard to his passing. His shot diet is frustrating, as he’s too content to take mid-range jumpers. Even worse, he’s never been consistent from three. As a result, he’s never shot over 40% from the field. His defense, body, and the fact that he knows how to play should still be enough to get him looks.
The guy I really like outside of Knecht is Jonas Aidoo. At 6’11”, Aidoo gets off the floor well, but he’s also a fluid mover in space. As a result, he’s a scheme versatile big who genuinely protects the rim (8.9 BLK%). While skinny, he’s been a better rebounder on both ends later in the season. On offense, he makes quick, simple decisions in handoff settings and has a budding mid-range jump shot. In his last 18 regular season games, Aidoo averaged 13.3 PPG, 8.3 RPG, and 2.2 BPG. He’s quietly turned the corner and become one of the more productive, well-rounded big men out there. I doubt he comes out for the 2024 Draft, but if he keeps it up, he could have a big senior campaign next season. Heck, maybe a Vols title run could launch him into this class.
The Saint Peter’s Peacocks are back in the big dance. This time around, Corey Washington is the guy to watch. The sophomore is 6’6”, he can score (16.5 PPG), rebound (6.6 RPG), and defend (1.2 SPG, 0.8 BPG). He’s only made 32% of his threes on three attempts per game, but he was a non-shooter a year ago. If that comes along, watch out, because he’s got a nice first step and he’s a coordinated driver with some slipperiness to him. He’s tough through contact at the basket. My biggest gripe with Washington is that he doesn’t look to pass enough. Adding to his shooting and playmaking skill sets should help him get into the mix down the road.
Amazingly thorough work here, great job Max
This is incredible work Max! Thanks!