The Value of V.J. Edgecombe | The Prospect Overview
Baylor freshman V.J. Edgecombe is one of the most exciting and valuable prospects in the 2025 NBA Draft. Maxwell breaks down his game and projection with a detailed scouting report! PLUS: Quick Hits!
V.J. Edgecombe entered the year with sky-high expectations. The 6’5” Baylor guard was a McDonald’s All-American who slotted in at 4th in the 2024 RSCI rankings. Edgecombe also got a chance to compete on the international stage, playing for the Bahamian national team alongside the likes of Buddy Hield, Deandre Ayton, and Eric Gordon during Olympic Qualifiers over the summer. There, he averaged 16.5 PPG on 57.1/38.5/81.2 splits along with 5.5 RPG, 3.8 APG, and 2.0 SPG. Seeing that type of production on a court with NBA peers at his size only heightened the intrigue.
Edgecombe’s freshman season has had some ups and some downs. He struggled to score efficiently out of the gate, posting a meager 46.2 eFG% through his first ten games. His defensive play was stellar, though. He was rebounding like a forward while wreaking havoc as an event creator. While his rebounding and defensive production have taken a step back since then, they’re still really strong for a combo guard prospect. Plus, he had a scoring turnaround, as his eFG% has been 55.4% since his rough opening stretch. His playmaking comes and it goes. In totality, we’re left with quite the conundrum—a young, athletic, productive player with fair, serious questions to be answered about how he projects to the next level. Let’s dive in!
Scoring
A big part of the reason that I personally kept the faith with Edgecombe during his efficiency slump was because I always bought his shot. During his final AAU season on the Adidas Circuit, he made 36.2% of his threes and 83.8% of his free throws. He also sank 36.5% of his threes and 86% of his free throws during his final high school season at Long Island Lutheran. That’s a good set of priors. So, when Edgecombe only made 26.3% of his threes through the first eight games of the season, it made sense to exercise caution. Since then, he’s drained 42.6% of his attempts from long range. As it stands now, he’s at 38.5% from three on 8.3 attempts per 100 possessions—both good marks for a guard prospect.
Edgecombe is a great spot-up shooter. Per Synergy, he’s drilling 38.6% of his catch-and-shoot looks on the season. He’s decisive and confident, going directly into his motion with consistent mechanics across his attempts. This shot is made even better by his elevation and high release point. Edgecombe gets way off the floor and has a high apex, making his shot exceedingly difficult to contest. This further bolsters his efficiency. Teams know he’s a shooter, so he draws hard closeouts, but that “bounce + tall swan” combo enables him to shoot over them with the greatest of ease. Per Synergy, 51 of his 83 catch-and-shoot threes have been contested, and he still makes 35.3% of those shots. And while the sample size isn’t worth getting excited about, I wouldn’t eschew the possibility of movement upside here either. Edgecombe has made eight of his 16 threes coming off screens and looks comfortable moving into his motion.
The area of Edgecombe’s scoring arsenal that needs the most work, in my opinion, is his pull-up shooting. He’s 4-for-15 on pull-up twos and 4-for-17 on pull-up threes so far this season. Right now, it appears as if it’s not a shot he’s comfortable going to. He’ll resort to these shots when he’s either given heaps of space or if it’s late in the clock. From a shot diet standpoint, that’s good. But when it comes to projecting star outcomes, a certain level of tough shot making off the dribble is desirable. When he has the time to line up and aim these shots, like when a defender sags way under a ball screen, he can occasionally make defenders pay. But when he’s moving hard into these shots, he doesn’t seem to have ideal balance or full control over his body, leading to inconsistent results. If Edgecombe made defenders pay with these looks more often, it would make him a tougher cover, further accentuating his downhill game. Say, let’s get into that!
Edgecombe is an absolute sky-walker. He has real deal bounce and can finish well above the rim. Plus, he has the right tools to get to the rim on a consistent basis. He takes 31.9% of his halfcourt shots at the basket, per Synergy, which grades out well for a guard. Edgecombe’s catch-and-go burst and long strides help get him to the paint in a hurry. Plus, he has a bit of a wiggle to shake defenders in order to create advantages downhill. All of that stuff is good.
Unfortunately, the results have been iffy. Edgecombe is only converting 49.2% of his halfcourt rim attempts this season, and he’s 45.3% on layups in that setting. So, what’s going on here? Is his touch broken? I don’t believe so, personally. I’m actually optimistic about what Edgecombe can become as a finisher, and much of that has to do with his physical tools. Simply put, it’s not uncommon for high-wire athletes to struggle with their touch at the basket when they’re younger. Bruce Brown, Dejounte Murray, Lu Dort, and Josh Green were all poor finishers during their pre-draft seasons. I think getting those overall body mechanics in line is just something that takes time. The technical fix, in Edgecombe’s case, is his takeoff point. He often leaps from way too far away from the basket, forcing him to launch difficult looks at suboptimal angles around rim protectors. If he can improve his gather footwork, he should be able to generate cleaner looks inside, which would do a lot of the heavy lifting.
Playmaking
Edgecombe’s playmaking is going to be one of the most interesting skills to monitor from this draft class in the coming years. His 20.2 AST% and 1.71 A:TO grade out fairly well relative to others in his archetype. He’s in a pretty good spot as a passer. Edgecombe’s “basic recognition” is strong. He’s quick to read help and hit the open man. He’s capable of staying poised when he draws two on the ball out of a screen before finding the roller. He can place accurate lob passes on the go. Defenses respect his rim gravity, and he’s started to consistently make interior passes to punish rim rotations while getting Baylor’s big men easy buckets. Occasionally, he’ll make the more advanced read, but right now, he thrives making the simple ones effectively. He’s a solid decision maker who will only grow as he gets more on-ball reps and accrues experience.
Still, his assist-to-turnover ratio isn’t anything to get excited about. Edgecombe’s passing turnovers are often the result of going too fast in his process. When he meets an aggressive ball screen coverage (I.E. a blitz), he’ll occasionally try to rush a pass over the top of the defenders, only for it to be tipped. Sometimes, he’ll leave his feet without a plan while driving to the basket and have to force the ball through traffic to no avail. The bigger issue, though, is his handle. Edgecombe doesn’t have great command over the ball, particularly when driving left. His dribble can get wide, which opens him up to digs. But even worse, sometimes he’ll just cough it up without much prompting while driving at top speed. I tend to be optimistic when it comes to players improving as passers, particularly when there are more positive flashes than negative ones. That said, Edgecombe’s handle needs a lot of work. His ability to drive left, his counter bag, and his spatial awareness in traffic will all need to improve in order for him to successfully fill a heavy on-ball role at the NBA level.
Defense
Despite having the second highest usage rate on Baylor’s roster among everyday players, V.J. Edgecombe approaches defense like he’s a walk-on thirsty for more minutes. His 4.1 STL% and 2.9 BLK% both grade out exceptionally well relative to long-term NBA players. He has a variety of ways to accrue steals. At the point of attack, he does an excellent job of timing his reaches to get in on the rock without fouling. I also cannot recall a prospect who picks the pockets of opponents immediately after rebounds as often as Edgecombe, and he manages to do it without getting whistled for needless “frustration fouls.” His speed in the open floor also enables him to pick off looping passes. His shot-blocking is very rare for a guard. When he’s on the ball, he rises to contest really well. In instances where he gets beat off the dribble, he always works to recover, and often manages to turn away his opponent at the basket. Off-ball, he boasts far better rim rotation instincts than most peers his size, getting into position before soaring for rejections.
There’s other stuff to love outside of his traditional playmaking, too. Edgecombe uses every pound of his frame well, and he’s not afraid to get physical at the point of attack. That toughness manifests on the glass, too. His 13.6 DRB% is another feather in his cap. It’s not uncommon to see him get a contested board against a traditional big man thanks to his bounce and grit. And though Baylor’s scheme doesn’t force him to navigate screens often, he’s shown an ability to do it.
There are two main issues that pop up for Edgecombe defensively. The first is more easily correctable, and it’s something I’m betting will be developed in time—he needs to play with more discipline at the point-of-attack. At times, he’s a bit too “reach happy,” which leads to him getting off-balance and forcing him to play from behind after his man creates an advantage. The bigger issue, though, is that he can be a mismatch target.
I’ve mentioned it multiple times now—Edgecombe works his tail off. He’s tough and physical. Still, he faces size limitations. He’s measured in at 6’3” barefoot with a 6’6” wingspan, and he’s listed at 180 pounds. To his credit, he’s done a great job of filling out his frame over the past few years. Still, all of this means that he will enter the NBA small by the league’s standards. And even at the college level, some teams have found success exploiting this issue. Bigger wings can knock him off his line when driving to the basket. When posted up, he’s not able to offer much resistance and he’s easy to shoot over. This is true of many players his size, but it’s still a limiting factor worth noting that NBA teams will seek to take advantage of, particularly in playoff settings.
Projection
Look. 100th percentile outcomes don’t happen very often, so I don’t like to fixate on them very much. But when talking about talent at the top of the draft, I do think it’s important to let your imagination run wild… to a degree. All stats are per 100 possessions. Which prospect would you prefer?
Player A:
-28.6 PTS, 9.8 REB, 6.2 AST, 3.9 TOV, 4.3 STL, 1.4 BLK
-45.6%/38.5%/79.5%
-50.5 2FG% on 13.5 2FGA, 38.5 3FG% on 8.3 3FGA, 79.5 FT% on 6.8 FTA
-24.3 USG%, 56.9 TS%, 53.0 eFG%, .310 FTr
Player B:
-28.1 PTS, 8.8 REB, 4.9 AST, 3.0 TOV, 3.7 STL, 0.9 BLK
-40.8%/35.4%/80.6%
-46.3 2FG% on 11.6 2FGA, 35.4 3FG% on 12.0 3FGA, 80.6 FT% on 5.7 FTA
-24.6 USG%, 53.4 TS%, 49.6 eFG%, .243 FTr
Player A is V.J. Edgecombe. Player B is Donovan Mitchell during his sophomore season at Louisville.
Again, I want to be clear that I am not saying V.J. Edgecombe is going to turn into Donovan Mitchell. What I am saying is that there are similarities, and if everything falls into place, I think that could be an approximate outcome. When Mitchell was in college, he was knocked for not being a traditional point guard but lacking positional size for a shooting guard. He didn’t quite have the playmaking chops to lead an offense due to his inconsistent passing. His handle and poor takeoff points prevented him from getting all the way to the basket consistently, and he struggled as a finisher despite having real-deal bounce. However, Mitchell was a great athlete and a willing shooter, had shown flashes as a passer, and was a super disruptive defender.
So, what’s the holdup? For starters, even though Mitchell is shorter than Edgecombe, he still has the edge physically. Mitchell measured with a spectacular 6’10” wingspan and he weighed in at a muscular 210 pounds at the NBA combine. He was longer and stronger than Edgecombe is. Additionally, Mitchell made outlier developments. He improved his finishing as he went from being almost exclusively a two-footed leaper to someone who could soar off one. Not only did he become a far better interior finisher, but he became a ridiculous three-point shooter. The fact that he was a far more prolific pull-up threat as a college player is a meaningful difference and a reason why I’d be cautious about saying that Edgecombe is the next Donovan Mitchell. Mitchell launched 60 pull-up twos and 61 pull-up threes as a sophomore at Louisville. Now, he’s a deadly threat from way behind the line. But if Edgecombe brings more defensive value, that could help ease that particular shortcoming. As time went on, Mitchell also made continual refinements to his dribble game and playmaking process. At the end of the day, if we’re hoping for Edgecombe to meet Donovan Mitchell’s level of expectations, we’re asking for a lot.
Generally, my preference is to look at more reasonable outcomes. There’s still good news, though, because Edgecombe is cut from a valuable piece of cloth. Guards who can be disruptive defensively, punch above their weight on the glass, make good decisions, and knock down threes always have a place in the NBA. Right now, he’s a star who competes like a role player. So if he needs to slide into a role, he’ll be more than up to the task. And there are some really valuable role players who produced similarly to Edgecombe in college—think Alex Caruso, Josh Hart, Keon Ellis, or Gary Payton II. They might not be the biggest dogs in the yard, but their combination of competitiveness, defensive production, rebounding, secondary playmaking, and floor spacing helps them routinely find playing time on winning teams. I feel confident that with Edgecombe’s work ethic, improvement trajectory, and performance, he’s proven that he can be that type of player. But the fact that’s he’s already producing the way those guys were as upperclassmen (even better than them, arguably) does indicate that he could be even more. V.J. Edgecombe has been one of the most exciting prospects to watch in this cycle, but he also projects to be one of the most valuable to an NBA franchise come June.
Quick Hits
-Will Riley’s stock has been heating back up. The 6’8” freshmen out of Illinois has takeover scoring ability and a nasty shot-making bag at his disposal. He’s started off February averaging 18.4 PPG on 51.5/40.0/80.0 splits. His ball skills take things to another level, though. He does a great job of keeping his dribble alive, he knows how to lead teammates with his passes, and he’s also capable of making a quick “.5” skip pass. Still, I have reservations. His skinny frame and struggle to play through physicality take me back to when I over-indexed on Jett Howard’s shooting and feel in light of those same issues. He routinely gets bumped off his line offensively and plowed through on defense. His steal and block rates (0.5 and 1.0%, respectively) are at red flag levels, too. His height and offensive prowess are still so attractive that he could ultimately be a “this year” guy, but how he performs down the stretch could lead to one of the more interesting “stay or go” decisions in this class.
-Arkansas State’s Joseph Pinion is one of my favorite wing sleepers in the country. The 6’5” junior is one of the few players who could be tagged with the “three-and-D” label and genuinely live up to it on both ends of the floor. His 37.4% mark from three understates how dangerous he is from long range. Pinion is launching 14.4 threes per 100 possessions. He’s shown the ability to hit off movement and the capability to drain them from deep behind the line. Pinion has also shown a knack for taking no-dip threes off the catch, adding another level of functionality to his arsenal. When chased off the line, he has a surprisingly strong first step for a shooter and he gets off the floor well, enabling to shoot 62% on twos this year. Defensively, he is a force, flying all over the place and disrupting plays. He’s got some of the best closeouts in college basketball and routinely blocks shots on the perimeter. His 2.6 STL% and 3.4 BLK% would be great in a vacuum, but when you add in the volume three-point shooting, that’s downright tantalizing. If he can show more juice as a playmaker (1.1 APG to 1.0 TOV, 8.7 AST%), he’ll be off to the races.
-George Washington big man Rafael Castro has my attention. The 6’11” junior moves well in the open floor and is a great lob target, currently ranking third in the country in dunks. He also has some real ball skills, too. He can make great passes from the short roll (13.1 AST%, 1.8 APG to 1.5 TOV). Additionally, his quickness allows him to burn unprepared defenders with blow-by drives off DHO keepers. Defensively, his bounce helps him deter shots around the basket. His agility enables him to guard comfortably on the perimeter. He’s also great at using his hands, whether that’s by generating a steal off a dig or getting them into the passing pocket out of ball screens. We’re looking at a versatile ball screen defender and rim runner who can move the ball. That’s a good thing! At 220 pounds, he could stand to add strength. But he does maximize what he has and constantly scraps for position. I’m very interested to see what he looks like with another offseason under his belt.
-There are always a million guards to monitor, but don’t overlook Augustas Marciulionis. I covered Saint Mary’s 6’4” senior guard during my No Stone Unturned series this offseason, and the good stuff is all still there. Marciulionis is one of the most polished and gifted orchestrators in college basketball. He has a great handle and polished footwork. He’s constantly changing speeds and directions, which makes staying in front of him an arduous task. Marciulionis generates paint touches at will, and when defenses collapse, he’s got an exceptional passing bag to make them pay (6.1 APG to 2.1 TOV, 33.2 AST%). He’s also made real strides as a scorer this year. His 14.3 PPG and 55.8 TS% are both career highs. Marciulionis is both taking and making more threes than ever (35.3% on 4.3 attempts per game). He’s also improved his rim finishing, getting up to 60% on half court shots at the basket per Synergy. There are still serious defensive concerns, as he opens his hips up too easily and lacks recovery tools. But Marciulionis’ size, feel, and improvement trajectory make him one of the more interesting guards on the margins.
-Miami (OH)’s Kam Craft exploded for 40 points against Toledo on Tuesday. The 6’6” redshirt sophomore was a Top 100 recruit back in 2022 who didn’t find his footing at Xavier. Now, he’s one of the MAC’s most prolific scorers, averaging 14.3 PPG on 44.6/42.4/80.0 splits. He is an effortless movement shooter with a snappy release, allowing him to get off 6.9 threes per game on fantastic efficiency. He also has some wiggle and footwork combinations to create for himself off the dribble. In order to get into the NBA conversation, Craft will need to round out his game. He rarely looks to pass (7.4 AST% on 26.4 USG%) and is easy to get around defensively. But if he can be a Koby Brea-level three-point scorer who makes improvements in other areas, Craft could work his way into the mix by the time it’s all said and done.