Tidjane Salaun is the Ultimate Lottery Ticket
Few players in the 2024 NBA Draft are as theoretical as Tidjane Salaun, but if the French forward hits, he's going to be a problem.
As draft season progresses and we get larger sample sizes, the disparity between questions and answers tends to lessen. This year, though, the questions continue to pile up. One of the biggest unknowns and wild cards in the 2024 NBA Draft is Tidjane Salaun. Salaun is currently listed at 6’9 and 212 pounds, and he doesn’t turn 19 until August. Salaun has had a fascinating season for Cholet and continues to garner some of the most diverse evaluations of any player in this draft. Through his size, athleticism, motor, and shooting, Salaun looks like an ideal lottery ticket.
I’m a firm believer that it’s really important to start with the exciting aspects of a prospect when evaluating them before diving into the areas of improvement. With Salaun, there are plenty of reasons to get excited. For starters, it wouldn’t be shocking if Salaun’s official measurements are even more impressive than his currently listed ones. Every game, Salaun looks like one of the biggest players on the court. When we factor in his athleticism as well, Salaun starts with a baseline of physical tools that very few other players can. Players with these physical gifts are often afforded a longer leash as masking over their weaknesses is a bit easier.
Additionally, Salaun has one of the best motors in this class. The bulk of his production comes from him simply outworking everyone else. Salaun has his flaws, but effort isn’t one of them. One of the biggest aspects of draft evaluation is determining how realistic a player’s improvement is, and players who have the work rate of Salaun are typically a more appealing bet than those who don’t. Salaun has fascinating upside, but also has inconsistencies on both ends of the floor that warrant a thorough dissection.
Offense
The biggest selling point with Salaun’s offense is his shooting potential. The key word there is potential. Salaun has really sound mechanics and a ton of confidence, but his numbers are still underwhelming. According to Synergy, Salaun is shooting just 33.3% from three on 195 attempts across all competitions this year. That’s not an ideal number, but it is also weakened by his pull-up attempts.
The short to medium range outlook with Salaun’s offense should be viewed through the prism of him as a play finisher. Maybe one day he will expand out of that, but for now, that’s how he’s best utilized. Salaun’s four most frequent possessions this season have come as a play finisher: spot up, transition, cut, and offensive rebound. His effectiveness has varied as he ranks in the 30th, 37th, 58th, and 63rd percentiles in points per possession (PPP) respectively.
When Salaun is asked to create, it’s rare that something productive happens. However, when he’s asked to finish a play and capitalize on his motor, size, and off-ball shooting, the results tilt more in his favor. This season, Salaun is shooting just 23.3% from three and 17.6% from two on pull-up jumpers. Conversely, he’s up to 36.2% from three shooting off the catch. As we can see, Salaun has deep range, sound mechanics, and confidence when launching off the catch.
Having a 6’9” outlet on the perimeter is an advantage that not every team can boast about. It’d be great if Salaun was over 40% from three on his volume, but I’d be pretty surprised if he isn’t a league average spot-up shooter at worst. The shooting on its own is critical to Salaun’s ultimate role, but how it opens up everything else is just as crucial. By being a legitimate off-ball shooter, Salaun will force long closeouts. This will enable him to attack defensive rotations, get to the rim, and even create for others.
Unfortunately, Salaun has been very inconsistent with his effectiveness. The highs are fantastic and when things are clicking, he looks like an easy Top 10 talent. When they aren’t, though, Salaun struggles to find a way to make an impact. Plenty of Salaun’s possessions where he attacks closeouts result in terrific results like we just saw, but just as many, if not more, fall well short of the mark.
In the halfcourt, Salaun is shooting just 56.7% at the rim, 7.1% on floaters (only 14 attempts), and 19% on two-point jumpers. Salaun’s poor finishing numbers feel more like a lack of craft and plan rather than poor touch. He has good touch on his outside shot and is shooting 80.5% from the line, so it is perplexing that his two-point scoring numbers are this rough. A lack of touch is really hard to fix, but general recklessness and naivety can be corrected with experience.
What further backs up this idea are the numbers on Salaun’s drive attempts. So far, Salaun has 106 drives and is shooting just 26% on them. Additionally, he has a turnover rate of 18.9% in these situations. All of this suggests that when Salaun attacks the rim, he just kind of goes for it without a plan. He isn’t great at reacting to defensive rotations, has inconsistent passing instincts, and struggles to finish through contact. A lot of this can be corrected in time, but it does limit what Salaun can do on offense. The numbers are really concerning, and the tape unfortunately aligns.
Salaun’s loose handle and lack of craft essentially make him not a viable on-ball option. While his improvisational skills are nonexistent on-ball, they’re rather intriguing off-ball. Salaun is terrific at keeping possessions alive, working to make himself available to teammates, and finding open pockets in the defense to exploit. This season, Salaun is scoring 1.255 PPP (58th percentile) on cuts and 1.212 PPP (63rd percentile) on offensive rebounds. Salaun’s activity is exhausting for defenders to deal with, his timing is impeccable, and his physical tools make him incredibly effective.
Salaun’s unrelenting energy pairs brilliantly with his shooting. Defenders can’t sag off of him or else he’ll make them pay, which then opens up space behind them for Salaun to cut into. If they get lazy and ball watch, Salaun will quickly make them look silly. The dream is that everyone has significant on-ball equity, but that’s an incredibly tough ask. Haven’t you heard? There’s only one ball. Even though Salaun’s lack of on-ball equity puts a ceiling on what type of player he’ll likely develop into, his off-ball work rate, shooting potential, and play finishing raise his floor.
Defense
The defensive end of the floor is simultaneously the messiest and most important aspect of Salaun’s game. Currently, Salaun is far from a good defender. He has flashes that are exciting, but again, most of his positive impact simply comes from effort. Effort is a major part of defending, but it only gets you so far. A lot of the time, Salaun looks out of his depths, over-rotates, and has putrid fundamentals.
Here, we can see Salaun make a positive impact, but it’s mostly due to him having a superb motor and physical tools. His footwork is still sloppy, and he’s high in his stance, but he has the desire and length to really disrupt these possessions.
Typically, though, Salaun is rather easy for ball handlers to manipulate. He is very jumpy, and his hyperactivity, combined with poor footwork and an upright stance, often leads to him getting easily shaken by ball handlers. Salaun may stay with the first move or two, but any on-ball creator with a modicum of creativity won’t struggle to beat him off the dribble.
Where Salaun has found some success on the defensive end, though, is with his off-ball defense. He is really committed to making the right rotations and being in the right spot to help his teammates. His motor and length allow him to cover a ton of ground, too. He isn’t an impactful rim protector yet, but his rotations frequently lead to deflections, verticality at the rim, and shot deterrence. Salaun continuing to perfect his off-ball defense is the quickest route for him to grow into a positive defender.
Unfortunately, there are still a lot of holes in Salaun’s team defense. His eagerness to make the proper rotation often leads to him over-rotating. Instead of tagging and recovering, Salaun will fully rotate to cut off a roll or a cut and never recover or communicate a switch. His overly aggressive rotations also lead to unnecessarily long closeouts. Decent off-ball scorers are then easily capable of manipulating him as his sloppy footwork and jumpiness yet again become an issue.
Currently, Salaun isn’t a good defender. He lacks the requisite fundamentals and consistency of his position. Despite this, Salaun still finds ways to make a positive impact through sheer force of will. He works really hard, covers a ton of ground, and clearly wants to be a good defender. Salaun’s flaws stem from what feels more like inexperience rather than desire. With coaching and time, his defense can improve. It’ll just take a team that’s patient and willing to put in the resources to accomplish that.
Outlook
The 2024 NBA Draft is full of questions and wild cards, and Tidjane Salaun may be the biggest wild card of them all. So much of his game right now is theoretical. Given his mechanics, shot difficulty, and volume, Salaun should theoretically improve as a shooter (I think he will). With his athletic tools and motor, Salaun should theoretically be a good defender. When all of those are pieced together, Salaun could theoretically be one of the biggest steals from this draft.
The more people you talk to, the wider the range of opinions Salaun engenders. Some are all in on taking the swing, while others are far more cautious. If Salaun does indeed hit, he will undoubtedly be one of the best players from this draft. Players that have that much variance in their development, though, are scary. What continues to spark optimism, though, is that he gives a shit. It’s cliché and overly simplified, but the way Salaun plays screams of someone who wants to win and get better. Those are the wild cards that are worth swinging for the fences.
I wonder if he might agree to a stash for one year. Needs a lot of patience so could be better than a year in the G league.
Y’all just keep pumping out fantastic draft content! Keep it coming!