Time To Float
The 2023 NBA Draft class has talent everywhere, but some names could start to "float" up Draft Boards in the upcoming months.
As evaluators, we find ourselves hammering through basketball film on a daily basis. Coffee, energy drinks, and any sort of caffeine find themselves skyrocketing up draft boards this time of the year.
With each passing month in a draft season, you’ll find yourself traveling down a road before coming to a stop. You suddenly look up and realize there’s a choice of two paths to take. One of these paths will result in making some early conclusions about prospects. You might find that if you go down this path, you’ll convince yourself that you have a great grasp of where a prospect should be when it comes to their draft stock.
The other road isn’t a shortcut. In fact, it’s the exact opposite. This path presents more questions than answers. It stresses the idea that just because you might feel you have a grasp on something, that doesn’t mean that things can’t change at the snap of a finger.
The goal of this segment is to shine some light on that second path, because it’s as important as ever in every NBA Draft cycle. When we reach the midway point of regular seasons, it’s always a good time to regroup. As scouts and evaluators, we can find that we have a good enough sample to start diving in with a passionate obsession. But it’s also an important time to remind ourselves that there’s still plenty of time left for things to start changing in a hurry.
For most prospects, there’s still time to float…
At this point of the draft season, you’ve probably started to realize that there’s been a lot of movement since the preseason. It’s something that happens each year. Last year, players such as Keegan Murray and Johnny Davis started storming up boards early in the year. Ousmane Dieng and Jalen Williams were both players viewed by many as second round prospects.
Things can change in a hurry. This is the time of the year that I like to refer to as “moving season.” Some prospects are going to start to see a light switch come on. While some might have been viewed as players who could explode with another year, we quickly realize “wait, why not this year?” A perfect example of this was last year during the 2022 NBA Draft cycle. Malaki Branham and Dalen Terry were both viewed as potential breakout candidates for the 2023 class. Fast forward through the second half of the 2021-22 NCAA season, and Terry and Branham both became first round selections.
It’s always an exciting time of the year when you start to feel like you’re finally getting a strong feel for a draft class. But I’m here to remind you to stress patience and start looking back at some of the important details that can get lost in between the cracks.
Let’s break it down.
Not Next Year, This Year
There are always some names that have plenty of fans in draft circles. The difference with these names is some of those fans are afraid to jump into the deep end of the swimming pool. Stop dipping your toe and just throw a cannonball at the body of water already.
The evaluation process takes time for everyone. Once we start to get a feel for the class, some other prospects can start to look a little more fascinating. We find ourselves reaching a point of the year in which we dance with our own minds when it comes to overthinking. You might find a player and say “Boy, I like him, but is he maybe a next year guy?” I’m here to tell you that these players should be climbing up boards this year, not next year.
Jalen Hood-Schifino | Guard | Indiana Hoosiers
During a podcast episode last month, I told my No Ceilings colleague Corey Tulaba I was incredibly confused about the lack of Jalen Hood-Schifino buzz. Specifically, I mentioned that I felt like Mugatu taking crazy pills in Zoolander.
Jalen Hood-Schifino is a lottery talent for the 2023 NBA Draft class. Is this becoming a situation in which we are all overthinking it? Am I potentially overthinking it by not having him high enough? While some have shined the light on some of the inconsistent performances from JHS this year, he’s also looked like one of the best freshman guards in college basketball.
A 6’6”, 213-pound combo guard who plays with a great feel for the game and poise is something that every NBA team wants. If a team finds it, then every other franchise is jealous that they don’t have it. Despite having a “rollercoaster” of a season production-wise, JHS is averaging 12.5 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 4.3 assists per game while shooting 42.2% from the field and 41.2% from three. He’s got the tools to start floating up some boards. If NBA teams are buying the shot (they should), he’s going to be firmly in the lottery conversation.
Taylor Hendricks | Forward | UCF Knights
Coming into the 2023 NBA Draft cycle, not many were expecting UCF freshman forward Taylor Hendricks to become a potential “one-and-done” prospect. That’s just what he’s going to be.
Hendricks has become one of the top players that can make some serious momentum up draft boards. Let’s put it into perspective. We have a 6’9” forward with good athleticism who can stretch the floor from deep. That’s checking a lot of boxes in a hurry, especially when it comes to intriguing NBA front offices.
While Hendricks might not be a prospect that many see as a potential Top 10 selection right now, his ability is going to be something that will have NBA teams extremely intrigued. There’s always an idea of adding a specific skill set to a roster that will have NBA teams foaming at the mouth. Hendricks is averaging 14.3 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 1.8 blocks per game. Those are very exciting numbers. He’s also flirting with shooting splits of 40/40/80. If he could stay in that area while also showcasing some two-way upside, he’s going to be a popular name in NBA circles.
Kobe Bufkin | Guard | Michigan Wolverines
If you’ve listened to the No Ceilings NBA Draft podcast, first let me say I love you. Second, you should know that my co-host, Tyler Metcalf, has been talking my ear off about how he believes Kobe Bufkin can be this year’s Dalen Terry.
He might not be that crazy, folks…
This is becoming one of the biggest names to watch out for when it comes to a serious rise up some draft rankings. Bufkin is a 6’4” sophomore guard at Michigan, but he turned 19 years old back in September. Technically, you could say that he should be a freshman. There’s a lot of intrigue with his game. After averaging just 3.0 points per game as a freshman, Bufkin is starting to ooze with confidence and is up to 12.2 points during his sophomore year.
The light is starting to come on for Bufkin as of late. In his last four games, Kobe has gone on to post averages of 13.0 points, 7.5 rebounds, 4.3 assists, and 1.5 steals per game.
Potential International Darlings
The 2023 international class has been a bit disappointing throughout the first half of the draft season. But there’s some talent that is starting to show some impressive flashes of promise moving forward.
This year’s crop overseas is going to be overshadowed by a french alien that goes by the name of Victor. The international game can always present challenges to some basketball fans or evaluators. You’re unlikely to get a young prospect that produces elite production at a high competition level. Luka Doncic doesn’t come around every year, folks.
Rayan Rupert | Wing | New Zealand Breakers
French prospect Rayan Rupert had been generating some buzz overseas heading into the 2023 draft season. That’s when he announced he would be signing with the New Zealand Breakers of the NBL, a welcomed development for NBA scouts.
I continue to believe that after Victor Wembanyama, Rupert could be the international prospect that starts to get plenty of fans in front offices. Rupert is listed at around 6’7” and reportedly has a 7’3” wingspan. He’s lengthy on the court and has the potential to be an absolute pest on the defensive side of the ball.
The outside shot has taken some encouraging steps in progress compared to this previous summer. Not only does Rupert have the tools to be a dangerous 3-and-D prospect, but he also has some sports car speed in the open court and some shiftiness to his game as well. Rupert is the one to watch out for. He’s already starting to float toward the lottery.
James Nnaji | Big | Barcelona
This is where things are going to get fun for some evaluators out there. If you go box score chasing with James Nnaji, you’re going to probably run into a rough time. But the problem is you have to understand the situation when it comes to the talented but RAW big man.
Nnaji is playing with Barcelona in EuroLeague and Spanish ACB. He’s listed at around 6’10” and 225 pounds. From his physique alone, he looks as if he’s 250 pounds of muscle. He just turned 18 years old in August. Please take a second to re-read that last sentence. Nnaji is raw, but there’s some serious stuff to get excited about. This is going to be one in which evaluators are going to have to dig deep and trust what you see on film.
Also, remember the significance of an 18-year-old playing any minutes AT ALL with one of the top powerhouse teams in Europe. After asking around about the international class, I asked point blank about the thoughts regarding James Nnaji. “He’d be a first round lock if he went to Texas.” There are going to be some fans in front offices, especially if Nnaji can continue to put forth a couple more impressive performances. You pair that with the opportunity for Nnaji to get in front of teams for workouts this summer, and he could be a riser.
Is This Seat Taken?
There are a number of players who are generating some buzz as individuals who should end up hearing their names at some point in the lottery. But at the same time, I believe they are just a strong second-half stretch away from starting to cement themselves as going much earlier than we might expect. `
The second half of the draft season can always get dangerous. The NCAA is going to have conference tournaments followed by March Madness. International teams are going to reach their playoffs. Then everyone comes together to grind to prepare for workout season in front of NBA personnel. Regardless of what you think, that’s where some players can start to generate some real momentum.
Anthony Black | Guard | Arkansas
The discussion around Anthony Black could get interesting in a hurry. Black is a 6’7” guard that has intriguing playmaking ability and awareness on the court. Entering the 2023 draft season, Black and teammate Nick Smith Jr. were supposed to be one of the most talented backcourts in the country.
Smith has only appeared in six games while dealing with an injury (more on him later), which has given Anthony Black an opportunity to showcase his skills. The term “connector” often gets thrown around when talking about a prospect like Anthony Black. The problem is that so many fans think of “connector” as having a negative meaning.
NBA teams are always hunting to find the connecting piece that can take their team to the next level. It could be a defensive asset that can impact the game without scoring. Maybe it’s a player that doesn’t require a heavy offensive load but can impact the game in a variety of ways. When it comes to Anthony Black, a 6’7” combo guard with size and the ability to impact the game in a plethora of ways, teams are going to be buying stock. That could mean that Black could end up going much higher than some of us might realize. All it takes is one team to fall in love and Anthony Black has the tools to get front offices deep in their feelings.
Cam Whitmore | Wing | Villanova
After generating some buzz coming into the 2022-23 season, Cam Whitmore’s debut was delayed by a preseason thumb injury. Since finding his way to the court, Whitmore has shown some exciting flashes, but there’s still a craving for more from evaluators.
Whitmore has plenty of tools to get giddy about. He’s listed at 6’7” and 235 pounds, and he is a freight train when he’s got a lane to attack the basket. The outside shot is still an area that will have the attention of NBA scouts moving forward. But there’s a feeling that we could be on the verge of a strong stretch from the talented freshman.
The fit with Villanova has been a bit interesting this year, to say the least. Whitmore should still be a prospect that is considered a potential Top 10 selection. But with a couple of big months ahead, including pre-draft workouts, he could be a name that starts to float. In his last eight games, Whitmore has averaged 13.4 points per game while shooting 47.6% from the field and 43.6% from three-point range.
Jett Howard | Wing | Michigan
You better believe that there are going to be plenty of fans in NBA front offices when it comes to Michigan freshman Jett Howard. Yes, he’s Juwan Howard’s son. Yes, NBA teams and evaluators are suckers for bloodlines (myself included).
But Jett has the tools to be a perfect talent for the modern NBA. I’m convinced that he’s bigger than his reported 6’8” and when you pair that with his offensive upside, you find yourself with a dangerous talent. Scoring at the NBA level is at a full TILT during the 2022-23 season. Teams are hunting offensive players more than ever. That means that Jett Howard could be a popular name when it comes time for the draft. With the smoothness and potential to offer three-level scoring upside, Jett should have some teams drooling.
The consistency will be the only thing preventing Jett from moving up boards rapidly. He has the talent to be a takeover type of scoring option at any time. Because of that, NBA teams will have him in high demand. If Jett can showcase a more consistent production, it could make him a name that starts to enter an interesting conversation when it comes to climbing up the Top 10.
Dream A Little Bigger
In the opening months of the draft season, it seemed as if everyone had their Big Board figured out. It involved some combination of Victor Wembanyama and Scoot Henderson at one and two. From there, it seemed as if the majority of folks believed in Amen Thompson as the third overall prospect.
Now what’s funny about draft season is that it can start to open your eyes to other directions. While there are still plenty of folks that might have the previously mentioned trio in the same order, there are also some other names that are starting to kick down the door. Is it that ridiculous to view some other prospects as contenders for the third overall pick?
Brandon Miller | Wing | Alabama
Before the 2022-23 NCAA season tipped off, one name was buzzing consistently when it came to preseason practices. That name was Brandon Miller. So far, it looks as if that buzz has delivered for Miller.
Miller hit the ground running and showcased some fascinating offensive versatility. Then he took his game to another level. At 6’9” with impressive fluidity on and off the ball, Miller has the tools to offer some superstar upside. After some early-season hesitations when it came to his finishing ability, Miller has seemed to trend in the right direction.
There are some legit tools here to get excited about. While plenty want to talk about the outside shooting, there are other areas that are coming together as well. The playmaking potential has been fascinating from Miller. He has the feel for the game and vision to become a dangerous weapon when you pair his awareness and scoring prowess. The rebounding consistency has also been an awesome development for a wing that is often relied upon to carry the load offensively. Miller is trending up. Regardless of if you have him there on your big board, he’s in the conversation for a Top 3 pick.
Jarace Walker | Forward | Houston
There’s a chance that Houston Cougars freshman Jarace Walker could become one of the safest picks in the lottery. When you turn on the film, Walker looks like the Incredible Hulk except playing under control and not smashing everything that exists. He’s listed at 6’8” and 240 pounds.
During his high school days with IMG Academy, Jarace showcased some SERIOUS playmaking ability as a bit of a “point-center.” In the early portion of the 2022-23 NCAA season, evaluators were patiently waiting for that same playmaking upside to start to rise to the surface.
After some solid performances to start the year, Jarace Walker has looked to finally found another level. In his last eight games, Jarace is averaging 17.4 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 1.5 steals per game while shooting 53.5% from the field and 46.7% from three-point range. The outside shot was the biggest thing holding Walker back from being a big-time prospect for this class.
When you go down the checklist for a prospect like Jarace Walker, you find yourself checking off a lot of things in a positive way. One of the top defensive assets in this class, Jarace has the two-way versatility to be an impactful presence at the next level. He’s going to make some General Manager fall in love. The question is how early could Jarace go?
Remember Me?
Every year, you’ll find a preseason big board that has some prospects projected to go in the lottery. Fast forward months later and you’re going to find yourself looking at updated big boards and asking yourself “Hey wait, where did that one guy go?”
Not every incoming player will hit the ground running and average 20.0 points per game as a freshman. That’s just not how it works boys and girls. But there’s also an important realization that NBA scouts and personnel will take into consideration the situation at hand. Just because a player isn’t excelling as a freshman, doesn’t mean that scouts are going to be completely out on the talent.
Jaden McDaniels was viewed as a preseason potential Top 5 selection going into his freshman year. He averaged 13.0 points per game with shooting splits of 40.5/33.9/76.3 and still went 28th overall in the 2020 NBA Draft. The very next season, Ziaire Williams averaged 10.7 points on shooting splits of 37.4/29.1/79.6 and went 10th overall in the 2021 NBA Draft. Just because you didn’t have an elite season doesn’t mean NBA front offices won’t still be in love with you.
Nick Smith Jr. | Guard | Arkansas
This was supposed to be the guy that was challenging for a Top 5 spot in the 2023 NBA Draft. After a delayed debut, Nick Smith Jr. played six games for the Razorbacks. While the numbers won’t wow you, the flashes on film were a heck of a tease.
Smith has the transition feel and smoothness to be a dangerous threat at the next level. The shot looks good and he’s got intriguing size at 6’5” for a potential combo guard with strong feel. Reports have suggested that he could return sometime in February for the Razorbacks as he’s been dealing with a knee injury. If that happens and Smith can stay on the court, he has the talent to start heating up QUICKLY when it comes to draft circles.
When we all have seen the same thing for months and then all of a sudden something new gets thrown in front of our faces, it doesn’t take much for that new shiny thing to look awesome. Nick Smith Jr has the talent to get all of us on the edge of our seats when he returns to the basketball court.
Dereck Lively II | Center | Duke
Well, well, well…I bet you didn’t see this one coming. I wanted to end this one with a little vent because I believe it’s important when regarding the 2023 NBA Draft class.
The big man class is struggling. Teams are going to be desperately looking for someone to separate themselves from the rest of the pack. During the preseason, names such as Kel’el Ware and Dereck Lively II were mentioned as lottery projections. Both have struggled when it comes to their roles on their respective teams
But Lively has become a fascinating development. The Duke Blue Devils have been a bit all over the place this season. Lively and fellow freshman Dariq Whitehead got a delayed start after some preseason injuries. But focusing on Lively, it’s become one of the most fascinating evaluations in recent memory.
Lively was often mentioned as one of the top prospects in high school basketball coming into the 2022-23 NCAA season. He’s listed at 7’1” and 230 pounds, and he has some impressive athleticism. The problem is that Lively has been basically Casper the friendly ghost on the offensive side of the ball.
I need Jon Scheyer to come out and say that he gave Dereck Lively the Norman Dale speech from Hoosiers
“Don’t shoot the ball unless you’re under the basket all by yourself!” - Norman Dale
But Lively has started to showcase some fascinating flashes, especially when it comes to his defensive ability. While the talented big man is still going to need some work as an offensive threat, the ability he’s shown as a rim protector this season has been remarkable. On paper, Lively’s stats are nothing to look at. For the season, he’s averaging 4.7 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 2.4 blocks in 17.9 minutes. When you take a look at his most recent stretch, you start to wonder if things are starting to finally click. In his last four games, Lively is averaging 7.8 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 5.0 blocks while shooting 72.2% from the field.
Lively will have some work to do when it comes to making up ground in the Draft ranks. At some point in the first round, teams could be intrigued by the upside. With a class that is struggling to get a big man to make a statement after Victor Wembanyama, Lively could offer some intrigue for front offices looking for a defensive asset in their rotation.