Top Young NBA Performers During Week 1 | Youth Movement NBA
Our own Nathan Grubel takes a look at Paolo Banchero, Victor Wembanyama, and other top NBA rookie, sophomore, and junior performers after the league's first week back.
What a first week in the Association!
There are already a number of storylines surrounding the top teams; for better or worse, the NBA is back in full force.
What we’re focused on this season, however, is the young stars of the league aiming to ascend up the ladder of stardom, break out as starters, or just find meaningful roles within a team’s rotation altogether.
To be clear, not every player’s journey to finding their path is linear. Development is varied across the league, and the only players who find overnight success are the elite of the elite.
Poor shooting, weak defensive habits, lack of processing speed to adapt to quicker pace all plague younger players as they step into the NBA. But watching these young talents find success in different places is what makes basketball both thrilling and engaging at all times.
Youth Movement NBA is built to track these career arcs through three years of service for No Ceilings. The discussion will be primarily focused on the NBA’s rookies, sophomores, and juniors, but there will be times where “older” players who still meet the above criteria will be covered in different situations (plenty more to come on that front).
For now, let’s take some time to appreciate and recap the first week of action by looking at juniors who are proving they’re ready to move into different tiers, sophomores on the rise, and rookies who have stood out for one reason or another in early viewings. If you’re wondering why I didn’t talk about your favorite player, chances are I already did highlight a good early-year performance of theirs if you follow me on X/Twitter @DraftDeeper!
One last note before we get started on what to expect in this column and others to follow. I love numbers. Using statistics to track production, growth, and development is as exciting to me as anything else when it comes to basketball. But it’s of my belief that numbers don’t tell the full story behind what’s going on in the games.
As an evaluator, I use the numbers to ask the questions of “why” something is happening, and use the tape to study the “how” of those on-court events. In leaving the tape as the most important tool in my arsenal of studying player performance and development, I’m able to find and appreciate more about younger players than if I were just box score hunting or filtering on certain advanced stats. We’re too early into the season to let numbers dictate the outcomes of player performances. I encourage all to watch the film diligently and intently, while also finding the positives about what certain players are doing. Focus less on the raw makes and misses with those just coming into the league, and more on what they’re showing they can do to earn minutes early on!
Now, le’ts start by talking about one of the most exciting players across the entire league who has already set the nets on fire in Orlando.
All statistics used are as of 10/31/24, and are courtesy of Synergy Sports, Basketball-Reference, Dunks and Threes, and Cleaning the Glass.
Juniors On the Verge Of Graduating With High Honors
Paolo Banchero, Orlando Magic
*Edit: This was written and framed before the announcement of Banchero’s unfortunate injury that will leave him sidelined indefinitely*
Paolo Banchero’s performance against the Indiana Pacers was quite literally the definition of a superstar breakout.
In a close win that required a strong team effort late in the fourth quarter in order to hold off a furious comeback, Banchero sealed the deal with 50 points, 13 rebounds, and nine assists on 61.5% shooting. Ultimately, Banchero fell a little flat from deep and from the line as the game went on, but he had 37 points in the first half and nearly posted a triple-double in that time. Anyone would be gassed after a run like that.
Still, Banchero held it together to help his teammates deliver when it mattered most. Jalen Suggs and Anthony Black both had huge supporting nights, but Banchero’s offensive outburst was proof he has what it takes to carry a good team in the Eastern Conference to the playoffs and beyond.
Banchero’s aggressiveness in getting to the line and more decisive play overall—in terms of balancing his high usage role as a scorer and additional playmaker—have helped him enter some excellent company to start the season. Per Dunks and Threes, Paolo’s current estimated plus-minus rating puts him in the 89th percentile of the league, while Cleaning the Glass rates the Orlando Magic as +9.1 points better per 100 possessions when he’s on the floor. His predictive impact overall puts the Magic on an expected wins pace of 60 games.
Now, I’m not sitting here and saying a usage rating of 30+ is sustainable for a 6’10” forward and that Orlando is actually going to run roughshod across the entire league for the next few months. But it is worth noting the type of leap Banchero seemingly is taking before our very eyes.
An absolute bulldozer getting downhill, Banchero’s strength was already a weapon finishing around the basket. Using his physicality to actually draw contact and get to the line at a 60.8% rate is a completely different story—and one that’s a game-changer for his overall efficiency.
It’s one thing for a pure shooter to have the consistency and touch to knock down a ton of perimeter jumpers to start the game and get into a rhythm. I believe Paolo is a good shooter, but given his efficiency ratings prior to this year, he doesn’t exactly have a case as a great one. Getting to the line, converting on free throws, and seeing the ball go through the hoop is something that can help anyone catch fire and get in a groove. Banchero is using this to his advantage in spades.
More rim attempts, higher volume from three, and more shots at the charity stripe. All are helping Banchero to level up his offensive approach and carry a larger burden.
And when defenses are electing to send double and triple teams at him, Banchero is dissecting different reads and making the neccesary passes to find the open man and come away with points on those possessions. With two games under his belt with nine assists already, Banchero’s improved assist rate of 28.9% has been a welcome sight in conjunction with his staggeringly low 8.2% turnover mark.
I get it—we’re working with an incredibly small sample size. But the Magic have played some quality teams already out of the gate, and have more tests ahead in the coming days. Banchero appears ready to shoulder the burden, while doing his part in propping up one of the best defenses in the entire NBA.
Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder
Jalen Williams hasn’t gotten off to a scorching start in terms of shooting, as he’s only posting a 45.8% True Shooting mark through the Thunder’s first few games. But what he’s doing as an overall two-way player has continued to propel him up the ladder of most intriguing young star talents.
Williams’s complete game hasn’t shocked anyone who has followed his meteoric rise over the past few seasons. That being said, it’s different when Williams can come in and perform well for a team without the types of expectations Oklahoma City possesses currently.
While the Thunder aren’t a conference champion (yet), that’s certainly the vibe that’s been passed around from the preseason by many NBA prognosticators which inevitably creates a “target on the back” for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams and fellow young standout Chet Holmgren (more on him later).
Yet Williams still plays with the same approach he has since he came into the league: how can I make everyone else’s life around me easier?
Whether it’s his adept cutting (85.7% shooting per Synergy), transition game both as a scorer and distributor, or ability to handle pick-and-roll possessions and put defenses in binds out of them, Williams can wear any hat he needs to in order to get the job done.
Couple that with his defensive versatility and it’s clear that stardom is on his plate now, it’s not just a hope for the future. Plus rebounder, assist man, and overall scoring threat for his position, Williams is a triple-double threat nightly while posting an EPM rating through the first week that puts him in company with the Top 6% of the league.
Williams can continue to handle more volume as both he and Holmgren take pressure off of SGA. And when his jump shot comes back around and starts clicking to the level it has the last two seasons, there’s an even greater leap for his overall scoring impact to take. Truthfully, there may not be more than a handful of guys (if that) across the NBA I’d want as a secondary option more than J-Dub, and he’s just getting started.
Dyson Daniels, Atlanta Hawks
Dyson Daniels still has plenty of room to round out some rougher edges on the offensive end, but I’ve loved to see the confidence he’s playing with to start the year.
Much more decisive off the bounce to either make a scoring move or get off the ball, Daniels is finally getting more used to the speed of the game as a scorer, not just a pure penetrate and kick player.
Still doing most of his damage at the basket, shooting 63.3% at the rim, Daniels has started to hit some more of his pull-up jumpers, making the most of space he’s able to take coming off handoffs or ball screens up top.
As I said, Daniels has always had an edge as a playmaker as a plus-sized guard with the length and touch to get passes where they need to go, but without any real scoring gravity those opportunities generally aren’t as advantageous as they seem. Why would defenses displace and sag off to help on someone who hasn’t proven they’re capable of generating clean looks outside of the paint?
That’s why Daniels’s confidence to step into more jump shots is such a welcome sight to see in his overall development. Because of everything else he does well, namely face guard the living hell out of opponents and create deflections and turnovers as if his life depends on it (3.9 and 3.1% steal and block rates respectively), he’s doing more of that and then some for the Atlanta Hawks.
Atlanta hasn’t seen a consistent perimeter defender like Daniels in years. He just needed more of the offensive game to take form in order to justify heavy minutes to showcase his defensive prowess (96th percentile in defensive EPM). Seemingly, that switch has started to flip, and he’s become one of my favorite players to monitor this year.
If he can progress as a catch-and-shoot threat when he doesn’t have the ball in his hands, that would REALLY tie the rest of his game together. But cutters and secondary ball-handlers can still get involved offensively and make sleeping defenses pay. That’s what Daniels is priding himself on in his new Hawks uniform.
Jaden Ivey, Detroit Pistons
Welcome to the party, Jaden Ivey.
After gaining new opportunities under head coach JB Bickerstaff compared to the leash he did (didn’t?) have with Monty Williams, Ivey is THRIVING as a second scoring option next to Cade Cunningham in the backcourt.
The biggest thing that’s stood out to me is not purely the three-point volume, but what those shots actually look like on tape. Ivey is firing as if he’s unconcious from the perimeter, and it’s changing his game for the better (42.9% from deep through five games).
If Ivey feels like he has even a sliver of open space, he’s letting that puppy fly like he did against the Miami Heat on Monday night. Ivey connected on 5-of-9 from three, and those looks were anything but traditional catch-and-shoot attempts.
Hard closeouts galore, Ivey didn’t care. He did what he needed to create space and pull up quickly. I didn’t see Ivey put up any performances quite like that from deep in college, so he’s surely put in the offseason work to take a leap as an outside force.
There are not many players who can stop Ivey from getting to the basket when he has a lane on the right side of the court, or in transition. But playing one speed, having only one area on the floor as a go-to zone, defenses can adjust and take certain things away after seeing enough of the same. Now that Ivey is forcing defenses to respect him from the outside, it’s taken his scoring to new heights as he’s put up over 21 points per game 58.5% True Shooting through Detroit’s first four contests.
I’ll be keen to monitor some improvements I’ve seen from him man-to-man on the defensive side of the ball, particularly in his screen navigation up top (which was atrocious during his first few seasons in the NBA), but I love me some cocky shooting when I can get it. Ivey’s stroke early on is the goods; let it fly, young fella!
Jeremy Sochan, San Antonio Spurs
Admittedly, I wasn’t the most confident in Jeremy Sochan’s fit with the San Antonio Spurs after this past draft.
The Spurs didn’t exactly have an efficient offensive season last year, especially from the perimeter. Sure, Sochan upped his percentage from three by a few ticks, but he still didn’t cross the league average threshold.
Now, his defense is absolutely something to rave about on a nightly basis and the foundation behind him playing big minutes under Coach Pop (who rarely has trusted rookies in San Antonio). After Point Sochan didn’t take shape in the way some wanted, was a non-shooting forward the type of player the Spurs wanted definitively next to Victor Wembanyama in the frontcourt?
That answer, even with what has seemingly been a regression from deep through the first few games of the season, actually is turning out to be yes—thanks to another few key additions in San Antonio.
Chris Paul and Harrison Barnes have helped Sochan in different ways. In regards to Barnes, having another trusted floor spacer helps open up the floor for Sochan to catch and rip to the basket.
Paul’s addition, on the other hand, has really accentuated Wembanyama’s impact as a passer and Sochan’s adaptive nature as a cutter and off-ball scoring weapon.
Yes, Sochan’s currently being assisted on nearly 76% of his overall attempts from inside the arc. But it’s helped carry his efficiency and has led to multiple efficient performances in which he’s scoring 18, 17, 22, and 17 points, respectively.
It’s one thing to have one passer on the floor who can read the flow of the game and make the necessary reads in front of them and across the court in tight windows. But having TWO of those players, and a third like Sochan who also can read and react, can help an offense sing.
Now, let’s not get too carried away. Currently, the Spurs still rank 29th in the league in points per 100 possessions and 26th in effective field goal percentage. Those numbers aren’t going to get San Antonio into the playoffs.
But it’s been interesting to see some of the fun wrinkles that having the combination of Paul, Wemby, and Sochan introduces in terms of flavor and fun. It is worth noting that the lineup of Paul-Sochan-Wemby-Barnes-Keldon Johnson is +16.7 points per 100 possessions per Cleaning the Glass. I’d love to see some more combinations with both Johnson and Stephon Castle (more on him later) and remain impressed with what Sochan has done to balance out both ends of the floor as a primarily off-ball offensive talent.
Scotty Pippen Jr., Memphis Grizzlies
I’m not saying Scotty Pippen Jr. is a future All-Star, but this guy is a freaking mini-magician with the ball in his hands and has been nothing short of spectacular off the bench for the Memphis Grizzlies to start the year.
After signing a newly guaranteed contract, Pippen has provided the Grizzlies with an absurd amount of per-minute playmaking and efficient scoring as a backup to Ja Morant.
In 25 minutes a night, Pippen is posting 7.4 assists per game, which equates out to a 41.6% assist rate and 14.2 assists per 100 possessions! That’s all while posting a 57% True Shooting mark that includes splits of 48.7% from the field and 41.7% from three.
Bottom line, Pippen has everything in his bag from a passing perspective. With his crafty vision, pace, touch, and velocity on all of his passes, Pippen makes everything he does as a playmaker look easy. Pocket passes, cross court dishes, skips, corner kickouts, transition hit aheads: you name it, and Pippen can throw it.
And while he’s done most of his damage as a spot-up shooter in terms of scoring, it’s nice to see Pippen not completely dominate the ball on his team’s possessions. He’s anything but a ball-stopper. Pippen catches, reads, and moves off of the ball quickly.
Sure, the plus-minus game will always be a struggle with Pippen, given the fact he’s nothing in the way of most opposing NBA offenses. He’s never going to excel defensively in the way of other bigger guards. But what he’s doing as an offensive dynamo has me hooked to watch more—especially given his developmental path through the G League system.
Christian Braun, Denver Nuggets
Look, it most certainly hasn’t been sunshine and rainbows for the Denver Nuggets to start the year. But it would be A LOT worse if someone hadn’t stepped up to slot into the starting lineup for Kentavious Caldwell-Pope the way Christian Braun has.
Thankfully, Braun has been stellar in his complementary role playing off Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray. Having had moments in the NBA Finals where he looked like a draft night steal, Braun is taking and making more shots per game, including threes, and supporting Denver both in transition and in the halfcourt on both ends of the floor.
There isn’t one particular advanced stat I can point to through a few games that illustrates what Braun has done on the court for the Nuggets in a tight, neat summary. But watching the tape, Braun has stepped up to hit shots in spots that other teams wish they had someone as confident and cocky in those situations.
And that truthfully means a lot, especially since his production has helped lead to two consecutive overtime wins off of collapses against teams with few playoff expectations in the Toronto Raptors and Brooklyn Nets.
Without Braun, those games may have been losses, putting the Nuggets in one heck of a hole to start the year. That, without a doubt, would have become the league’s biggest talking point to start the season.
Denver still has a three-time MVP in Jokic to steer the ship. But if Murray doesn’t play up to an All-Star caliber level, and Michael Porter Jr. doesn’t become a secondary scoring option that Jokic can trust in big spots, then that ball is going to keep moving and stopping late in games in the hands of someone like Braun. If Braun can keep delivering with moxy, then the Nuggets won’t plummet.
It may seem like I’m putting way too much pressure on Braun’s shoulders, but he’s capable of doing more as he has already.
Sophomore Ascensions
Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City Thunder
There’s still no clear definition of how to vote for the NBA’s Most Improved Player Award, but Chet Holmgren will have his hat in the ring to win if he keeps up the absolute absurdity of his start to the season.
Literally the only thing he hasn’t done so far on the season is shoot the ball effectively from three. Name almost any other aspect of Holmgren’s game, and he’s improved on it from last season.
Currently averaging 22.5 PPG, 11.0 RPG, and 2.8 APG on 66.1% True Shooting, Holmgren’s overall two-way impact can’t be understated. Leading the league in blocks while posting a ridiculous 10.3% block rate to start the year, Holmgren’s ability to protect the rim and deter drivers and slashers alike has helped Oklahoma City weather a very poor shooting start on the year. Hell, he currently rates in the 99th percentile in terms of defensive EPM!
Shutdown defense is crucial to any team looking to win a championship, and it starts with having an anchor down low who not only handles the objective in front of him, but can call out to others and quarterback the defense from down center. Few big men read, react, and anticipate defensively the way Holmgren does.
Holmgren gets his mitts on everything, rarely fouls, and cleans the glass like he’s been starved for rebounds his whole life. This guy just doesn’t quit, and he certainly doesn’t beat himself. No matter who he’s going up against, Holmgren gets up; even if he’s knocked back down, he doesn’t beat himself up or hold closely too many negative emotions.
Offensively, Holmgren’s confidence as a ball-handler in the halfcourt has really started to take even greater shape. Many evaluators questioned before he got to the NBA whether he could actually generate offense for himself and others in the halfcourt. Holmgren showed plenty of flashes of transition ball handling in grab-and-go situations, but the fact that he’s able to get looks against packed defenses (albeit not the prettiest all the time) is an excellent development in his overall attack.
Hitting jumpers and making reads out of double teams is one thing, but doing more on the move opens everything up for his teammates to play off him rather than shoulder all of the offensive burden themselves. Not every team has a big man who can take the ball himself in 5-out offense, and when factoring in just what he means defensively, Holmgren is a unicorn talent worthy of the highest levels of consideration league-wide.
Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs
The legend of The Alien continues, as Victor Wembanyama has kept on stifling opponents defensively while tapping into his shot making creativity on the offensive end.
You really think you’ve seen it all in the NBA, until you watch a 7’4” center run inverted pick-and-rolls and pull up from 25+ feet from the basket and drill a three-pointer.
Honestly, if his shot from deep really does become a 36-38% weapon on high volume, there will be nothing the NBA can do to stop him. And even though those raw results aren’t there yet, he is connecting on 90% of his free throws on five attempts from the line a game. His jump shot isn’t broken; as a matter of fact, it’s a good-looking stroke. Taking better shots is the name of the game for Wemby, and I’m full-on confident he’ll figure it out.
While that part of his offensive game is developing, Wembanyama is improving as a rebounder, playmaker, while still changing the way offenses operate when he’s in the middle of the floor.
Nitpick what Wemby isn’t doing as an efficient shot maker, but few players league wide can change the course of a game like Wembanyama can. Opponents take less shots in the paint while Wembanyama patrols the lane, and overall opposing offenses score 8.7 points less per 100 possessiosn while he’s on the floor.
The name of the game in the NBA is executing on and ending possessions. Wembanyama does both of those at excellent rates, and continues to flash moments where everything comes together and he’s a go-to guy on offense as much as he is an anchor on defense. Tracking his development over the course of the year will be exciting to watch.
Bilal Coulibaly, Washington Wizards
If you need any evidence of Bilal Coulibaly being one of the best young defensive wings in the league, watch the second half of the Washington Wizards’ early-season showdown against the Atlanta Hawks on Monday night. Coulibaly guarded Trae Young with everything he had, forcing double-digit straight misses en route to an upset win.
Be it on or off the ball, Coulibaly’s defensive evolution is allowing him to not only do a good job with above-average wings, but some of the best offensive options the NBA has to offer. Even in the Wizards’ game against the Boston Celtics, Coulibaly had some strong defensive possessions against the likes of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.
Now, it hasn’t been a blistering start for the Wizards or Coulibaly from an advanced metrics perspective. But looking at both the tape and the box scores, Coulibaly hasn’t let negative parts of the game impact how he performs in other areas. Even on nights when he doesn’t have an excellent scoring performance (although he has continued to ascend in that department over Washington’s last few games, scoring 17 and 27 points repectively against the Hawks), Coulibaly rebounds, makes plays off the bounce, and holds the fort defensively for his team.
But speaking of being more effective off the dribble, Coulibaly continues to grow more comfortable with opportunites on the ball.
He may not be making any advanced passing reads, but Coulibaly can play in pick-and-roll offense or find reads out of catch-and-go looks. There were times last season when the game looked a little fast for him, and he forced some shot attempts in the thick of defenses where he should’ve found another way to attack. I haven’t seen that happen as much through the Wizards’ first handful of games, which is more than a step in the right direction for a player in need of on-ball reps to fulfill his two-way promise.
Taking and making more catch-and-shoot looks and quick pull-up jumpers off of initial penetration will help further enhance his offensive profile. The good news is that Coulibaly has been efficient on both shot diets, albeit on low early-season volume.
Shooting to monitor aside, I’ve loved the pace Coulibaly has played with on both ends. He hasn’t let his opponent dictate one-on-one outcomes without him having his say. More of that, please.
Anthony Black, Orlando Magic
If I were voting for the NBA’s Sixth Man of the Year Award today, I’d be thinking long and hard about my selection and why it very well might be Anthony Black.
Black has done a bit of everything while posting efficient shooting numbers across the board including a scorching hot mark from distance at 44.4%. He still isn’t taking a high volume of threes, but the looks he is connecting on have been impactful, particularly Monday night against the Indiana Pacers, when he nailed some big shots from the corner.
There were enough signs from Summer League that Black was going to take his shooting to another level during his sophomore campaign, and so far that’s checking out to be true.
On top of his halfcourt offense becoming more reliable, Black is still one of the better playmakers as a bigger lead guard in the league. He can see over the tops of defenses, and doesn’t force passes into poor windows. Sure, there’s room for Black to still cut down on some turnovers, but I don’t see a ton of truly “bad” mistakes when I watch him play.
Black fights for loose balls, rebounds, and strives to make everyone else around him better. And when he’s on his game defensively, using his length and quick hands to play passing lanes and create deflections, it becomes incredibly difficult to penetrate and generate cohesive ball movement against the likes of him and Jalen Suggs. Both have formed one of the better perimeter defensive tandems early in the season.
Connectors who know how to play that role around stars and play it well make NBA teams into legitimate contenders. Both Black and Suggs are playing those roles effectively for Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner. If I were to select a team that’s been one of the most impressive league-wide so far, Orlando would without a doubt be up there in the East. Black has been a big reason why off the bench.
Amen Thompson, Houston Rockets
If you’ve watched Amen Thompson play defense this season, then you have an idea about how irrationally high I am on his future in the NBA.
With All-Defense potential on the wing, Thompson’s competitive nature, athleticism, and instincts have been one of the few bright spots on that side of the ball for the Houston Rockets this season.
Thompson is in the middle of rating in the Top 7-8% of defenders league wide for the second season in a row, and the ceiling of his is much higher on that side of the ball.
Questionable at best offensive results aside to start the year (39.1% from the field overall), the energy of a game just changes when he and Tari Eason enter in for the Rockets off the bench. He’s still as good of a connecting piece as they come, and he’s even started to step into some jump shots and knock them down!
If I were Thompson, I would watch how someone like Dyson Daniels has started to impact the game more offensively in a third season. Thompson’s upside is much higher because he’s in fact in the 1% of all NBA athletes, but it’s the confidence as a shooter he needs to keep progressing on that end of the floor.
For now, he’s still a game wrecker pushing the pace in transition, playing off the ball, even setting screens for short roll playmaking opportunities. He’s an excellent cutter and secondary playmaker, and he can finish above the basket in the halfcourt.
There are a bunch of ways for Thompson to impact the game now while he irons out his shooting and concerns regarding touch. I’ll be watching closely to see how he progresses as a scorer throughout the rest of the season.
Dereck Lively II, Dallas Mavericks
The box score results haven’t exactly jumped off the page for Dereck Lively II in his second season so far, but again I implore everyone to watch the tape! As a play finisher, play extender, playmaker (yes, there’s a pattern here), Lively is as important of a complementary piece to the Dallas Mavericks as any other role player around Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving.
Matter of fact, I buy into the notion he’s the third-best player for the Mavericks right now. When he fills in for Daniel Gafford off the bench, I can just feel the pace of the game change. Lively is a much quicker processor of the game overall than Gafford, and offers even more vertical spacing than Gafford—who is no slouch off the ground himself.
He’s better on the glass than given credit for, and he’s always looking for teammates off offensive rebounds and in give-and-go situations. Rarely have I seen a rim-running archetype of big man who has the passing chops that Lively does, and that favorite trait he displayed at Duke has carried over and then some in the NBA.
His combination of 74% shooting from the field and a near 17% assist rate puts him in rare company right now as a big man. The only players to have better True Shooting marks than Lively currently, with a higher assist rate, are Domantas Sabonis and Jalen Duren.
I’m truly not as concerned as others if he doesn’t end up extending his range out beyond the arc. He’s an impactful rim protector, glass cleaner, and playmaking option for a team that’s needed more on defense from the center spot for years. He and Gafford are one of the best big man tandems league wide, and I don’t foresee that trend changing anytime soon.
Gradey Dick, Toronto Raptors
Gradey Dick continues to impress me as a scoring option, not just a shooter.
Rating in the 90th percentile so far in terms of jump shots off the dribble, Dick has done his part to put the ball in the basket well past just open catch-and-shoot looks from the corners and on the wings.
Even stepping up and hitting some fades out of the post or quick pull-ups in the lane, Dick has expanded his scoring package in meaningful ways. Still just an average finisher around the basket, he isn’t a poor cutter or transition threat by any means.
And when he gets his outside shot going, few can stop him, given his size and release point on those looks. A 34.4% shooter from deep on 9.9 attempts per 100 possessions, Dick is giving the Toronto Raptors a healthy injection of outside offense that it desperately needs around Scottie Barnes and Immanuel Quickley (and boy does that team need it even more with those two out for extended time).
He’s been supremely confident in his shot-making, and while he hasn’t exactly taken leaps in other parts of his game, what he does best is what his team needs on the wing. Sometimes, doing your part is as simple as it needs to be. Few have been more effective in their roles on the Raptors than Gradey Dick has to start the season.
Toumani Camara, Portland Trail Blazers
Is there another more interesting developmental story over the last season (and a few games) than Toumani Camara from where he was as a college player?
This man was a power forward at Dayton, was recruited originally as a center, and now is playing shooting guard in the starting lineup for the Portland Trail Blazers while Shaedon Sharpe misses time. Talk about a developmental learning curve!
With him on the floor dating back to last year, Camara made the Blazers a combined 7.8 points better per 100 possessions heading into Wednesday night’s game against the LA Clippers , which is an excellent mark for any rookie/sophomore. Yes, he came into the NBA with experience as an older rookie, but he’s picked up quickly what he needs to do to compete now and get better for the future.
His success starts on the defensive end, where he’s been one of the better young wings on that side of the ball league-wide. Camara moves his feet well, competes without egregiously fouling, and has the length to contest looks both on the ball and when closing out on open shooters. Camara is as effective rotating and playing other positions as he is staying home and covering his own man. His versatility both out away from the basket and as a backline help defender put him in company with other talented forwards in the NBA.
Offensively, Camara keeps hitting shots at even better clips, and provides floor spacing Portland desparately needs from the wing position. He doesn’t take a lot of shots per game overall, even from three, but he’s been efficient with the ones he has taken. And those makes go a long way when factoring in the points and possessions he can take off the table defensively.
I said going back to his days at Dayton that Camara excels best when his role is simplified for him. Don’t ask him to change the life of the program, but give him two to three consistent things to do and watch him grab his lunch pail and go to work. Camara has done that through Portland’s first few games, and he’ll keep being a reason why the Blazers are feisty and frisky all year long.
Jordan Hawkins, New Orleans Pelicans
Not everything has to be complicated when it comes to defining a role in basketball, and that’s especially the case with Jordan Hawkins for the New Orleans Pelicans.
When he comes off the bench, the Pelicans ask him to do but a few things: hit jump shots, rebound, and keep it moving within the offense. He doesn’t have a high-usage role in terms of scoring and playmaking. Just take open looks that you get from off-ball movement, keep ready, and let it fly when the ball swings around.
Hawkins has excelled in that type of role, to the tune of 16.2 PPG on 59.9% True Shooting for a perimeter gunner! That’s an awesome mark for a shooting specialist—especially one who attempts so many threes at high volume when given the opportunity.
There are enough options for Hawkins to play off offensively, and not all of his makes have come in crucial minutes for New Orleans. But it’s good to see the young sharpshooter get some run for a team that needs spacing any way it can get it.
Where I’ve been encouraged regarding Hawkins is in the fact he’s grabbed so many rebounds as a guard. That was a signature trait of his at UConn, being an above-average guard rebounder, but he’s kept on snagging long rebounds at the NBA level and helped to support a team that needs extra help on the glass without a true-blue starting center down low.
I’ll keep an eye on that aspect of his game, as well as if he can grow into any sort of reliable playmaker in different second-side actions. But for now, I’m appreciating simplicity being executed to a high degree.
Scoot Henderson, Portland Trail Blazers
Up and down is one way to put Scoot Henderson’s early season run for the Portland Trail Blazers.
On one hand, Scoot’s game against the New Orleans Pelicans on October 25th was one of the best in his career so far. Playing under control, finding gaps in the defense to drive and kick, and make the most of open lanes when he has them—even hitting on some perimeter jumpers. As a matter of fact, he just posted another excellent performance against the LA Clippers in which he against was very efficient in 24 minutes off the bench posting 14 points and six assists on 5-8 shooting including two threes!
On the other hand, there have been a few games already where Henderson has had the raw box score stats to stand out, but his efficiency and decision-making have been in the tank.
I’m a massive fan of Henderson’s talent and future as a star NBA guard. I haven’t gotten off his wagon. But there is something to be said for a guard in his second season to still make so many mistakes that he just didn’t do at volume in the G League before he got up to the NBA level.
Sometimes I’m left scratching my head at some of the decisions Henderson makes in terms of certain big men he tries to attack, or passes he attempts to make that aren’t there. But then he has outings where his potential assist count is through the roof, and he could have 15 assists if his teammates would knock down the requisite shots from deep!
The perimeter jumper isn’t broken, and I buy his confidence from the midrange and when he has an open catch-and-shoot look. But the turnovers have got to come down, and he needs to take better angles to the basket on a consistent basis.
Let’s see what happens with this Blazers team as we keep progressing through the year, and how Henderson adapts to different roles and responsibilities within certain lineups.
Rookies Who Have My Attention
Ryan Dunn, Phoenix Suns
Few could’ve expected the preseason and early season run Ryan Dunn is on from a shooting perspective. The dude is just on an absolute heater from three-point range after showing little to no signs he could impact the game in THIS way early on in relation to his college career results offensively.
Smart scouts have pointed back to Dunn’s pre-college shooting confidence as to why there’s been a turnaround after leaving Virginia, and there’s most definitely an investigative study to be done at some point. That time, though, is not today. Today, we appreciate Dunn’s complementary offense to a team that has needed any sort of youth injection on the wing in the Phoenix Suns.
The Suns went all in on a core of Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal to win a championship. For better or worse, the Suns are cash-strapped with that core in place and have to win the teambuilding contest around the margins with picks like Dunn and fellow rookie Oso Ighodaro.
With Dunn, it looks like Phoenix knocked the draft out of the park, as he’s already able to hold his own in rookie minutes while spacing the floor and guarding a number of positions in about 15 minutes a night.
If he keeps up a pace of hitting even 36% of his threes—let alone the 43.8% he’s at right now—the Suns should be able to contend in the West, given the star power and other role players in place.
Yves Missi, New Orleans Pelicans
Speaking of surprises out of the gate, Yves Missi has been a pleasant one for the New Orleans Pelicans.
Missi came into the pre-draft process as arguably one of the best overall athletes in his class. A gazelle in the open court who can run and jump with the best of other 7-footers, Missi has the athletic tools to compete at a high level in the NBA.
Raw offensively in terms of his role on the floor and lack of ball skills and shooting touch, Missi is still valuable as a garbage scorer, offensive rebounder, and lob finisher on the break.
Defensively, he’s been able to step up and help protect the rim for a team needing anything from the size currently on the roster. He’s been competitive in the games New Orleans has played, but Missi has yet to face off against any of the game’s elite centers in regular season play.
He will have moments where the game moves too fast for him, or he misses rotations, or gets in foul trouble against offensive-oriented bigs. But everything with Missi comes back to his motor and how hard he plays. His impact on a per-minute basis could put him in contention for Rookie of the Year when all is said and done because he’ll keep getting minutes even if/when this team deals for another center.
Bub Carrington, Washington Wizards
I’ve got to be honest, I didn’t expect the Washington Wizards to start Bub Carrington out of the gate and give him the keys to secondary ball-handling duties in between Jordan Poole and Bilal Coulibaly.
Yet here we stand, and Bub is coming off his best game in the NBA yet. On Wednesday night against the Atlanta Hawks, Carrington posted 16 points, 6 rebounds, and six assists on 5-of-8 shooting and finished with a +3 net rating.
It’s one thing for a rookie to string together some good games and then see some downswings. And while Carrington hasn’t been perfect out of the gate, he’s already reading coverages better, getting involved defensively, and playing a role to where he’s comfortable picking and choosing his spots to score.
Granted, the Hawks don’t have a nightmarish defensive unit outside of Dyson Daniels (although Zaccharie Risacher is coming), but still I’ve been thoroughly impressed with Carrington’s pace of play and demeanor from day one.
He had his fair share of moments in Summer League posting some decent numbers even through some tough slogs.
But Washington is staying the course to develop and provide minutes early for its young collection of talent, and there have been some bright spots too for the other rookies Alex Sarr and Kyshawn George, all of which started in that Wednesday night showdown in DC.
The stock is up for the Wizards and young Mr. Carrington.
Jonathan Mogbo, Toronto Raptors
Man, is there anyone that Jonathan Mogbo can’t guard?
Before you laugh, of course there are a number of guys who could cook Mogbo right now. I’m not that crazy.
But when I say something like that, I mean that Mogbo is capable of scaling up and down a lineup to guard virtually any position you need him to. He’s already been putting that kind of versatility on display for the Toronto Raptors and it’s paid off in the team being much more competitive out of the gate than some prognosticators pegged before the season started.
No, he’s not a shooter yet by any stretch of the imagination. But he’s already connected on a look from deep, and has shown offensive flashes in other areas including screen-and-roll offense, transition finishing, and playmaking.
Mogbo’s energy on the glass, awareness, and lateral mobility to step up and take care of bigger wing matchups on the perimeter make him one of the more unique prospects to step into the NBA this season. A player who vied for a first round spot on some big boards last cycle, Mogbo will continue to be a fascinating watch as the season progresses. The early returns are trending very positive for Raptors fans.
Stephon Castle, San Antonio Spurs
Man, does this guy do some awesome stuff on the court with the ball in his hands.
Stephon Castle is most certainly a better athlete than sometimes given credit for, but his herky jerky style of play in the halfcourt is just fun to watch as he bounces off defenders like a pinball and puts the ball in the basket with flair.
Castle’s strength gave him a leg up in college on the defensive end, but it’s afforded him opportunities already as a finisher at the NBA level. And he’s already shown off some slick playmaking flashes to boot.
The Spurs can use his combination of playmaking and defense on the perimeter, and will welcome anything he can bring to the table from a shooting perspective.
The good news is he’s been more willing to take jumpers at this point than he was at the beginning of last season at UConn. His confidence began to grow in March during Connecticut’s NCAA Tournament run, and he carried over into his combine shooting drills and at Summer League.
If Castle’s shot can come around in terms of both volume and efficiency, even by a slim margin, the arrow will point that much higher toward further development in his sophomore and junior NBA campaigns.
I’m still bullish on Castle’s competitive nature, playmaking instincts, and untapped scoring potential. There’s plenty to him that oozes star potential, and early opportunities suggest there’s more than meets the eye with Castle.
Zaccharie Risacher, Atlanta Hawks
It wasn’t the prettiest of starts to the season, but damnit, I’m still here saying that Zaccharie Risacher has had a better run than he’s given credit for so far.
List off the shooting splits, and it’s been a rough watch offensively for him prior to Wednesday night’s game against the Washington Wizards, in which he posted 17 points on 7-15 shooting. The deep ball still hasn’t come around even though that was his most touted skill overseas in France, but as a slasher and off-ball finisher, Risacher is starting to show some chops.
Where I’ve seen growth game to game is in his defense, both on the perimeter man-to-man and in opportunities where he’s been able to rotate and help on someone else’s man.
Risacher’s defense is what intrigued scouts and got them to buy into taking him high in the draft. As a streaky shooter, it was Risacher’s defense both in the halfcourt and in transition that carried his evaluation through offensive rough patches. We’re starting to see some of those things come together for the #1 overall pick, and it’s nice to be able to say something positive about a rookie rather than just talk trash because the box scores haven’t been pretty.
Growth is not linear for every player, as I stated earlier. Risacher is a great example of a player for whom you cut up some tape on his minutes and watch for the little things: the ball denials, closeouts, effort, and energy. He’s playing hard, and the Hawks will continue to reward him for it.
Donovan Clingan, Portland Trail Blazers
Donovan Clingan has played in limited minutes to start the year for the Portland Trail Blazers as he ramps up his overall conditioning, but there’s no denying just how scary of a per-minute monster he is when everything is clicking.
Similar to his first year at UConn, Clingan’s effectiveness in the advanced metrics as a finisher, rebounder, and shot blocker are unheard of for a rookie in terms of a complete package. I get it, we’re talking about a freaking 63 minute sample size. But this is exactly what he did in Storrs.
There’s nothing flashy about Clingan’s game. He’s not someone who’s beating other bigs with 50 different post moves. He hasn’t shown much of an outside shot yet. Clingan is just incredibly strong, has soft touch around the rim on assisted looks, pounds the glass, and protects the rim like some of the better defensive bigs in the Association.
Again, sometimes simplicity is everything when it comes to production translating early. Clingan doesn’t have to do a lot to earn minutes for the Blazers. There’s a ton of bigs on the roster who can play ahead of him so he can be brought along slowly. Little pressure for him to carry the burden of a franchise by himself.
And that’s likely what’s best for the young man as he develops and readies himself for what will be plenty more opportunity post trade deadline.
There’s a reason why Clingan was mocked as high as third before the 2024 draft. He’s as talented of a center prospect as they come, with so much room to grow and blossom as the year goes on.
Jamal Shead, Toronto Raptors
For the fact that there are a number of higher profile rookies who haven’t found the floor yet, even at his position, Jamal Shead having the trust of the coaching staff of the Toronto Raptors this early in the season has been a nice development up north.
An experienced guard out of Houston, Shead left campus known much more for his defensive efforts than his offensive skills package.
And while he’s already living up to that pesty reputation in the league, wanting to guard guys all 94 feet on the floor, Shead’s efficient offensive play has piqued my interest in some run out of the gate.
He’s still struggling to hit threes at a higher clip, but Shead has been crafty inside the arc, effective when he’s gotten to the line, and has played the role of setup man when called upon to get others involved.
He still has opportunities to cut down on rookie mistakes and take higher quality shots, but I’ve noticed the minutes he’s gotten . I have him earmarked as someone who could make a jump to an All-Rookie level if his offense keeps taking steps to match his defensive intensity.
Dalton Knecht, Los Angeles Lakers
For anyone who wants to have any disappointment regarding this rookie class and shooting numbers, Dalton Knecht isn’t having any of it.
One of the first NBA rookies to hit the 15-point mark on the season while shooting efficiently on his attempts from deep, Knecht is living up to JJ Redick’s billing that he is in fact among some of the special shooters who have come into the league.
A high-volume scorer who got most of his shots off of movement and secondary opportunities at Tennessee, I’ve rarely seen a scorer of that magnitude have to work so hard for as many buckets as he got in college. That level of athleticism and conditioning comes from freaking hard work, meaning Knecht isn’t afraid of the grind before him.
And seemingly, Knecht has a coach and organization behind him who believes in him to give him opportunities to win a rotation spot early on. Questions about his defense aside, Knecht just has it as a shot maker. And for a rookie who is asked to just come in and do his part within the flow of the offense, Knecht is built for that role out of the gate.
I still want to see more from him as a live dribble passer as he gets run off spots, but for now, defenses are still adjusting to those who are coming into the NBA and getting minutes early on. Let’s just sit back and watch Knecht bomb away from three like nobody’s business.