Washington Wizards 2024 NBA Draft Lottery Preview
The No Ceilings crew continues their preview series of all of the teams drafting in the lottery today with the Washington Wizards.
Stephen: Washington is one of the few teams in the NBA that seems to be approaching their team building with the long term in mind. Their GM, Will Dawkins, has publicly stated that their organization is laying the foundation to be competitive, and that there is no timeline associated with that. While losing is frustrating, there is no insta-fix for this team to burst onto the season with one draft pick, trade, or free agency signing, given their lack of real star power–particularly this year. Even the Spurs, with the mighty Victor Wembanyama, still need to bring in more talent to complement their foundational pieces.
Washington doesn’t have their own version of Victor Wembanyama in terms of a player to push their chips in with. With the second overall pick in this year’s draft, it doesn’t appear that they will get that player, either. So, what do you do for a team that is still searching for that player? There may not be a Victor Wembanyama for the Wizards to select, but could there be a Devin Vassel? Vassel is one of two players that San Antonio has deemed “untouchable” in recent trade talks. Having an asset like that may not be the mountain-mover, but that player can accentuate the star; they can complement the team’s best player. That is how Washington can–and should–approach this draft.
Atlanta has the first pick in this draft, and there is a lot of smoke surrounding players like Zaccharie Risacher, Alex Sarr, and even Donovan Clingan. Of course, some of their interests could simply be posturing to increase the value of their pick. It certainly wouldn’t be the first time an NBA team talked up certain players to increase their demand. Still, Risacher and Sarr are both popular among many draft circles as the top pick in the 2024 NBA Draft–and there are plenty of folks who have Clingan as their top prospect on their personal big board.
Any one of those players could immediately become popular for the Wizards depending on who the Hawks select.
Washington has players like Corey Kispert and Bilal Coulibaly along the perimeter, but also Kyle Kuzma and Deni Avdija who have already been linked to trade rumors. There is Tyus Jones, who has grown as a very good facilitator on higher usage. After trading away their bigs, one would argue that their biggest need is at center–but do you draft specifically for need if you’re in this deep of a hole? Or, if you’re already looking at the highly-anticipated 2025 Draft Class, do you look to add a contributor who you feel confident about, knowing your star may come next season?
Nick, what do you think?
Nick: It’s a tricky situation to parse if you’re the Wizards. Other than Coulibaly, Avdija, and maybe Kispert, it’s hard to imagine many other players on this roster being around for the next theoretical playoff-contending version of this Wizards team—and as you mentioned, Avdija might be shipped out for future assets. Given that all three of them are forwards (assuming that they all stick around), I would argue that their draft preferences should be weighted more toward guards and centers.
With that in mind, I think that the answer might end up being as simple as Alex Sarr or Donovan Clingan—assuming that both are still on the board after Atlanta makes their selection at #1. If the Hawks take Risacher, and Sarr and Clingan are both on the board, I would lean heavily toward Sarr for Washington. His defensive upside gives him the highest ceiling in the class, in my opinion, and that seems to me like a bet that the Wizards should take.
While Zaccharie Risacher is often talked about at or near the top of this class, and I would consider him for the Wizards, I think that getting a tentpole player who isn’t a forward should be a major consideration for them. They need building blocks, period, and there are only 96 minutes to go around at the two forward positions. Drafting someone who overlaps so heavily with their two best future players in Coulibaly and Avdija seems like a bit of a waste given all of their other needs—and also might lead to them getting in the way of their individual developmental paths. Even if Coulibaly ends up being the only player who the Wizards consider to be a long-term building block, I think Washington might be best served by looking elsewhere with the #2 pick.
I have one other potential option to throw your way, Stephen, in case Washington decides to go with a guard instead of a center. What about Reed Sheppard? The Wizards were worse defensively than they were offensively, but they were still 25th in Offensive Rating and could desperately use more floor spacing. Sheppard would be a huge boost to their offense. I have been a believer in Tyus Jones for a very long time, and I think that a Jones/Sheppard backcourt would work wonders together with Jones as a playmaking, game-managing point guard, and Sheppard as a devastating off-ball weapon who can also run secondary actions at a high level. Sheppard doesn’t exactly have positional size defensively, but I believe that his crazy defensive playmaking will translate and allow him to be a positive contributor on that end of the floor by Year Two of his NBA career.
What about you, Stephen? Which way would you lean if you were the Wizards?
Stephen: The thing about teams like Washington and Atlanta is that there are only a few players that we can really discuss going to their organizations. Reed Sheppard is a name that a lot of people like from pick #3 and onward, but I find it hard to believe that the Wizards would take him with the second overall pick. Tyus Jones—by the way—did a very good job staying under the radar as one of the better playmakers in the NBA. I'm not saying that you shouldn’t take Reed because you have Jones, but it's just something to consider.
To me, Nick, there are only three names that make sense for the Wizards to take with their pick. Let’s start with Risacher. I get that they have a slew of this type of player. Deni Avdija, Corey Kispert, and Bilal Coulibaly are all present on this team. Throw Kyle Kuzma in there if you want. Seems like a lot of redundancy, right? There is a lot of smoke surrounding the trade rumors of Avdija and Kuzma—which could be why Washington could really be thinking about drafting Zaccharie. That still leaves Coulibaly and Kispert. Would adding Rishacher really be the worst thing in the world? Would that really be a misallocation of assets? I don’t think so.
The NBA values wings and forwards. Above all, these players provide tremendous value and rotational flexibility. Taking Risacher wouldn’t be the same thing as Atlanta drafting Reed Sheppard or Rob Dillingham. It wouldn’t be the same as Minnesota drafting Kel’el Ware or Zach Edey. Washington bringing Risacher in could give this team someone who can play the 2-4, making their lineup more switchable. I know what a lot of people may be thinking: “What about Jordan Poole?” I’m glad you asked. Washington’s top six rotations all had a negative point differential. Their seventh-most used rotation was a +19.5, which featured Poole at the point, rounded out with Kispert, Avdija, Kuzma, and Richaun Holmes. Should one (or both) of Avdija and Kuzma be moved, this opens up a spot for Risacher to fill.
There is also the possibility that Risacher could be off the board, though. Should that be the case, there is the “Sarr vs. Clingan” case to be made. I think the obvious pick is Alex Sarr here, Nick. We’ve seen Sarr’s player type find success all across the NBA. Evan Mobley finally got to play a lot of five for the Cavaliers, and we saw him take a good step in the right direction during the playoffs. Chet Holmgren was a defensive anchor for a strong playoff team in his first season. We’ve seen Jaren Jackson Jr., Nic Claxton, and Kristaps Porzingis be effective players for their teams as well. Alex Sarr shows the ability to cover a ton of ground on defense and the ability to space the floor. The beautiful thing about Alex going here is that he can fill a position of need, as Gafford was moved during the season, as well as possibly being the best player available.
But, let’s say that Atlanta takes Sarr and that Washington doesn’t want to add another wing/forward player. Donovan Clingan would be the name that makes the most sense to go second overall. Clingan isn’t believed to have the same level of ceiling as Sarr and Risacher. Simultaneously, there are a number of people who think that Donovan can grow as a shooter. Regardless of where you fall on either side of both takes, there is no denying that Clingan has the potential to be one of the better bigs in the NBA.
He does all of the important things at a high level, Nick. He measured in at 7’1.75” without shoes. He also touts a 7’6.75” wingspan and weighs 282 pounds. He posted an offensive rebounding percentage of 13.8 and a 23.4 defensive rebound percentage. His 11.4 block percentage ranked seventh in college hoops. Clingan also shows solid playmaking feel and takes good care of the ball. While he isn’t the same level of athlete as Sarr, you don’t have to wonder how he will fare at doing the “center things” in the NBA. That is what makes him valuable. There is also the fact that, no matter who Washington takes this year, they likely won’t change the fortunes of this franchise as a rookie; look at Wemby and the Spurs. Should the Wizards land another high pick next season, they could have their pivot man locked in with Clingan, and then take their pick of extremely talented players in next season’s class.
Nick: I totally get where you’re coming from on the Risacher point, and just wanted to clarify my thoughts quickly: I have Risacher at #2 on my board, so he would be BPA for me if Sarr goes #1 to Atlanta. The Wizards are in a place where they could use all the talent that they could get; my argument is more from the standpoint that I think that either Sarr or Clingan would address their biggest needs more directly than Risacher would. I agree that Sheppard is a bit more out of left field as a pick at #2, but I figured I should mention him as a potential fit given the glut of forwards in need of playing time on the roster and that he makes the most sense in my mind for Washington’s needs among the guards at the top of the draft this year.
I’m with you 100% that Sarr should be the pick for Washington if he does not go #1 to the Hawks. If he is the pick for Atlanta, that makes matters a bit more complicated. Risacher might be higher on my personal board and higher in terms of general consensus around the draft, but Clingan addresses Washington’s more specific needs. Is the gap between them wide enough that they should take Risacher anyway, or should they lock in their pivot man now, as you mentioned above, and look for star talent at the top of the 2025 NBA Draft class instead? I would lean toward Clingan for Washington, given that he helps the rest of the roster make a bit more sense, but Risacher would be a great pickup for them as well and would certainly add a lot of versatility to the roster.
Ultimately, there’s a bit of a “wait-and-see” element for the Wizards here with the #2 overall pick. We both seem to agree that Sarr should be the choice here if he’s available, but there’s still a decent chance that he will be off the board. That leaves the Wizards with two potential key contributors available, and maybe even a chance to trade back if another team is desperate to get Clingan or Risacher in the building. For a team with a lot of room to grow, that’s a pretty good dilemma to have.
i cant believe anyone thinks Sarr has more defensive upside than clingan. The ONLY reason not to take Clingan is if you worry about his injury history. Otherwise he is miles ahead of sarr by every metric. Sarr is not evan mobley. Lets get that out of the way. If he were, in any universe, Id say there was a discussion. But he is more john salley or kai jones than mobley. Im not even a giant fan of clingan. Big men with foot problems would concern me. Id take Sheppard #1 if it was me. Risacher is safe because the assumption is his floor is high, and i guess it is. His dad was a star in france. He knows the game. He has a nice feel for it. But he is at best an average defender. For the wizards anyone could help, even sarr i guess. But i think you have to look at Sarr's brother, too. Olivier Sarr got a two way contract in march for OKC. He barely played. He is a bit smaller than his kid brother, but has the same lack of core strength. A bubble roster guy, and sadly I see the same issues with alexandre. Anyway, i enjoy this blog, you guys do good work.
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