When You Look at Alex Karaban | The Prospect Overview
UConn's Alex Karaban should not go undervalued in the 2025 NBA Draft. PLUS: A Quick Hits section filled with interesting sleepers and deep cuts!
I don’t care about music that much. There are bands and songs that I love, don’t get me wrong, but I’m a “podcast-first” guy when it comes to pumping audio content into my ears. There are some pros to this, though. Because I’m not super educated or opinionated about music, a hefty majority of it is entirely inoffensive to me. If my friend wants to blare music in their car, I’m not going to be like, “WAHHH WAHHH I DON’T LIKE RAP/ROCK/COUNTRY” or whatever. It’s all fine with me!
I’m also the parent responsible for transporting our daughter to/from daycare. While I would love to raise my daughter on the You Know Ball podcast, she hasn’t taken much of an interest. Instead, I let her pick whatever type of music she wants to hear in the car. Because she’s three, her definition of genres is pretty loose. Among her favorites is “pretty music,” which typically features acoustic guitar and soothing vocals. One morning, I threw on a singer-songwriter-type playlist on Spotify to accommodate her request, and one song hit me like a ton of bricks. The song was “When You Look at Me” by Sara Kays.
Hey, look at me! Last week, we talked about cage fighting, and now we’re talking about emotionally impactful songs about love and insecurity. I contain multitudes. If you want to listen to the whole song, I’d encourage it. But for the sake of today’s article, we really only need to look at the following set of lyrics.
“I don't feel like you like me lately
I don't feel like I'm pretty.
Do I have the same glow about me
As that night in the city.When you told me, I remind you of the moon?
I'm still holding onto that and onto you.When you look at me, do you still think
That I shine brighter than anyone?
Or have you seen somebody else lately
Who reminds you of the sun?”
I’ve been there, and I’m sure a lot of you have, too. I’ve been in relationships where I could feel my partner growing distant from me. It’s an awful feeling. You may have done nothing inherently wrong, but still, a person may not feel as passionately about you as they did before. They may even move on to someone else, despite having previously communicated to you about your value to them. I’m also ashamed to say I’ve been the guilty party, too. I’ve allowed myself to drift apart from people rather than directly communicating that my heart didn’t contain the love it once did for them.
We do this to draft prospects all the time. At first, they’re newer to us. They have a glow to them. Then, they grow familiar. And even if they once reminded us of the moon, we start to look at fresher prospects. In doing so, we can lose an appreciation for what we already know. Instead, we find ourselves enamored with the prospects that remind us of the sun. We know enough about draft data to know that typically, young productive prospects outperform older productive prospects. It’s not entirely wrong to look elsewhere. But there is a danger to it when younger prospects have red flags or are far away from contributing at the NBA level, and older prospects have valuable skills that can help franchises immediately. When you look at Alex Karaban, I understand why you may rather look at someone who reminds you of the sun. But the moon still shines pretty damn brightly. UConn’s 6’8” redshirt junior sharpshooter has been there and done that. He’s unlikely to be the face of a franchise, but his shooting, instincts, and physicality should allow him to play an important NBA role for years to come.
Shooting
Alex Karaban has hit 42.5% of his threes this year while launching over 11 attempts per 100 possessions. He is elite both in terms of efficiency and volume. This isn’t anything new. For his career, he’s at 39.6% on 465 attempts—rare marks for players his size at the high-major level. This production from beyond the arc is exciting in and of itself. But the deeper you dig, the more exciting it becomes.
If your team is running more simplistic offensive sets, Karaban can fit right in. He has deep range on his standstill jumper and gets the ball out quickly. Per Synergy, spot-ups have been his most common play type over the years, and he’s made 42.5% of his threes in that setting. But there’s more than that. This year, his most common play type has been coming off screens, and he’s hitting 40.6% of his threes attempted on those possessions. If you just look at the Synergy numbers, Karaban takes far more unguarded threes than you’d expect for a reputable shooter (52 unguarded catch-and-shoot threes vs. 23 guarded catch-and-shoot threes). But it’s not because defenses are messing up—it’s because he’s great at maximizing his openings.
Karaban may not be a blur, but he’s not a sloth either. He knows the tricks of the trade for movement shooters. He’ll lunge in one direction to get a defender off-balance before flying back the other way. When he comes off a screen, he’ll make sure his positioning creates the longest, most arduous path for the defender to produce a meaningful contest. Plus, his shot prep footwork is exceptionally slick. He does a fantastic job of getting his feet under him in a hurry while maintaining optimal balance prior to starting his shooting motion. His strong frame (225 pounds) should also allow him to create openings as a screener at the next level. He’s already shown a proclivity for setting ghost screens before knocking down triples, adding yet another level of dynamism. His increased usage this season has also seen him take a career-high 11 pull-up threes this season, and he’s converted seven of them. While that is a very small sample, Karaban’s comfort launching shots and ability to quickly balance his base remain the same. Karaban’s combination of volume, efficiency, size, and versatility makes him one of the best shooting prospects in the class.
Passing
Alex Karaban is a reliable ball-mover, and he always has been. He’s posted a positive assist-to-turnover ratio during each of his three college seasons. Personally, though, I get nervous when a guy stays the same year-over-year. If a player isn’t improving in college, why do I trust them to improve in the NBA? The good news for Karaban is that while he’s always been reliable, he’s become increasingly reliable. This year, with his highest usage to date, he’s at a career-high 2.33 to 1.0 assist-to-turnover ratio. The simple “hot potato,” “next one,” stuff required of NBA role players is in there. He is great at avoiding mistakes (8.3 TOV%) while still processing the game quickly.
This year, Karaban has gotten to show a bit more than that. Per Synergy, he’s run 34 possessions as a pick-and-roll ball handler, including passes—he ranks in the 86th percentile on those plays. Karaban can make the right decision in a jiffy when he draws two to the ball out of a screen. His pass placement shines here, too. The man executes, making the right type of delivery and getting the ball where it needs to go in a hurry. He hits rollers in stride, making sure to lead them to the ball rather than giving the defense an opportunity to recover. It might not be sexy, but it is important. He’s also starting to see more of the floor, showcasing the occasional cross-court pass or more advanced read. While his NBA role will likely be more of the simple stuff that we’ve seen from him in the past, it’s nice to know that there’s some extra juice he can tap into from time to time.
Interior Scoring
If you watch through the video above, you’ll see that Alex Karaban’s interior scoring is a mixed bag. Let’s get the negative stuff out of the way. There are some pretty severe physical limitations with Karaban’s driving game. For starters, he’s a bit stiff. When he initiates his first step, he’s often quite upright with very little bend in his knees, minimizing his explosiveness when chased off the line. When met with a fly-by closeout, it’s not a guarantee that he can get to the rim quick enough to get a clean, uncontested look. He often has to go into his rim attempt with a man still on him. He’s not a particularly explosive leaper, and that’s exacerbated by his posture. Additionally, when met by help defenders, his handle is quite rudimentary. He can’t throw a counter move out there to beat the next level of the defense. From a metrics standpoint, Karaban is flawed. Per BartTorvik, he’s taken only 23 unassisted shots at the rim through 13 games. Synergy has him at 53.6% on half-court rim attempts this year with two total dunks, both of which are subpar marks for a forward prospect. Karaban will need to maximize his athleticism to stay above board on this front at the next level, and adding to his dribble game wouldn’t hurt either.
Still, there’s quite a bit to like here. Again, we’ll circle back to Karaban’s powerful 6’8”, 225-pound frame. The man is strong. When he drives downhill, he’s able to maintain his line, and sometimes, he can bully his way to his spot. While he may not physically overwhelm NBA opponents, his hard-nosed approach to driving gives him something to work with. His touch has historically been good inside, and he’s able to find clever rim angles at times. Additionally, Karaban finds ways to get clean looks inside while playing off the ball. He’s a smart, timely cutter and solid offensive rebounder (6.7 ORB%). Given how often he’s on the move as a shooter, his knack for finding holes in the defense and skill as a glass-crasher is even more potent than it would be otherwise. He’s hard enough to track as it is, and the fact that he may jolt toward the basket for an easy layup or offensive rebound makes it all the more important that defenders stay locked in on him. Given how high the three-point attempt rate is for role players, Karaban is going to butter his bread on the perimeter. And while he’s far from a great finisher right now, his shooting gravity, strength, and timing give him a path to contribute inside the arc when needed.
Defense
Some of the athletic limitations that hinder Karaban on offense are present defensively as well. His posture, flexibility, and foot speed are an issue here. He can be pretty upright in his stance, and he doesn’t slide his feet particularly well. Simply put, he doesn't look like a natural lateral mover. As a result, he resorts to crossing his feet or turning and chasing more often than I’d like. He has a hard time slinking around screens. His heavy footedness leads to trouble against directional changes, and he doesn’t have the tools to get back into the play once he’s behind his man. His career 1.3 STL% is tied into that as well, as he doesn’t have the stop-start burst to jump passing lanes.
But in spite of these flaws, I think Karaban has enough goods to negate these areas of concern. Once again, his frame goes a long way. In addition to his 225-pound frame, he has good length with a 6’11” wingspan and 8’10.5” standing reach. As a result, he’s difficult to get around, even without ideal quickness. He makes himself big at the point of attack while playing with a brand of discipline that minimizes openings for his opponent. Rarely will he reach or leave his feet without a good reason for it, allowing him to remain balanced and in the play. Plus, while he’s not the best mover, I believe Karaban to be a better mover than he was a year ago. That improvement trajectory is always encouraging.
My favorite thing about Karaban’s defense is his shot-blocking. It’s truly uncanny. As it stands, he has a 5.8 BLK%, which isn’t something you’d expect from a guy with only two dunks on the year. Karaban manages to accrue blocks through his awareness, anticipation, and timing. He makes the right rotations and is eager to help around the basket. On-ball, his physicality can swallow up drivers, forcing them into smothered looks at the rim. He’s not one to soar off the floor, but he has excellent hand-eye coordination which allows him to get to balls before they are out of his reach while avoiding fouling. Instead of high-pointing his blocks, he gets to the ball low. This is yet another area of the game where his feel and instincts are on display.
Conclusion
I don’t find the common criticisms of Alex Karaban to be unfair or unwarranted. He’s going to turn 23 during his rookie year, he offers little self-creation, and he’s not a great run-jump athlete. I hate to slander the very name of our website, but realistically, there’s a ceiling on the type of outcome Karaban can achieve, given those factors.
But at a certain point, for certain teams, I’d be leery of eschewing the “reminds me of the moon” prospect for the “reminds me of the sun” prospect. Karaban is really, really great at really, really important things. He’s a proven knockdown, high-volume shooter who makes great decisions and can function selflessly within a complex offense. Defensively, his timing, instincts, and size allow him to stifle opponents.
While they are quite different in terms of their build, I feel like Karaban has Cam Johnson written all over him. Similar to Karaban, Johnson’s age, lack of explosiveness, lackluster defensive production, and sub-optimal finishing were held against him. Johnson was often ranked in the 20s on boards and mocks headed into the 2019 NBA Draft, and the Suns were derided for taking him at 11. But as time went on, people looked back and said, “you know what? That was actually a good pick for them.” He’s fifth in his class in career VORP and third in career BPM. I could see something similar unfolding with Karaban. His skill set is so tailored to the modern NBA that I believe him to be a lottery-level prospect in this class.
Every team’s board is going to look different. I’ve always warned against Loser Mentality. Certain franchises should absolutely prioritize higher upside prospects, even if it’s a riskier proposition. No one wants to be the team that drafted Kelly Olynyk over Giannis Antetokounmpo, especially when you’re lacking star power and/or initiators. But for teams in the playoff race, Karaban could make a lot of sense higher on the board than you might expect.
Quick Hits
-I’ve really enjoyed watching UCLA’s Eric Dailey Jr. this season. He has many classic “Maxwell Guy” traits. He’s strong, he’s smart, and he plays hard. The 6’8” sophomore has plenty of power at his disposal. He operates with a rugged physicality that allows him to get to his spots on offense and cut opponents off on defense. Additionally, he’s feisty on the glass on both ends of the floor. His intellect takes things to another level, though. He’s a savvy passer (1.8 APG to 0.9 TOV). Defensively, he knows where to be off the ball and uses his timing to collect stocks (3.7 STL%, 1.4 BLK%). His shot remains a question. He’s at 48.4% from three on 2.4 attempts per game, but he’s only 69.4% at the charity stripe, and his side-aligned mechanics give me pause. Still, everything else is there. He’s a high-feel competitor with a variety of ways to impact the game. I’m very intrigued long-term.
-Somehow, I still haven’t given Tyrone Riley IV his flowers this year. San Francisco’s 6’6” freshman has been one of the best first-year players in the country. He’s a high-flying athlete who can finish above the rim. Per Synergy, he’s already registered 22 dunks this season. Riley also has the body control to adjust and finish with finesse when needed, too. He puts his tools to use on the defensive end as well, as he can read the opposing offense before springing into action to make plays on the ball. He’s a solid shooter, too, hitting 38% of his threes on moderate volume. The swing skill for Riley is his playmaking, as he has only 18 assists to 22 turnovers on the year. With the Dons graduating a lot of talent this year, I’d love to see him return to a high-usage role there next season and really show out.
-Utah State sophomore Mason Falslev is catching my eye as a super-producer. Falslev is old for his class at 23 (he served a mission in Brazil prior to redshirting his first year on campus), which is worth keeping in mind. But the 6’3” guard does it all. He has a good dribble game with heaps of counters at his disposal to create advantages. He recognizes openings at warp speed and makes sharp passes (21.8 AST%) while operating with a great sense of fluidity. His strength and touch do wonders at the rim, where he’s making 62.5% of his half-court rim attempts, per Synergy. Defensively, his recognition and timing allow him to rack up 2.7 SPG, though the Aggies often operate out of a zone. His shot is questionable, as he has a funky follow through and his volume is low. He’s at 45.5% from deep on 3.7 attempts per game this year, but he’s a career 36.5% from three and 63.1% from the free throw line. He’ll be much older than most prospects by the time he goes pro. Still, his strong body, positional size, and well-roundedness make me wonder if he could follow in Sam Merrill’s footsteps as a player who comes into the league older but eventually provides value on an inexpensive contract.
-Belmont always seems to churn out interesting prospects, and Jonathan Pierre appears to be their latest. The 6’9” senior had two fantastic years at D-2 Nova Southeastern before transferring to Memphis, where he didn’t get much run. Now, he’s flourishing with the Bruins. Pierre covers ground well defensively and elevates easily out of his slide to contest at the rim. He also puts in the work on the defensive glass, with a sky-high 27.2 DRB%. He’s a great shooter (38.2% from three through all college seasons, 39.0% this year) with a quick release and a gifted passer (26.2 AST%, 3.8 APG to 1.7 TOV). Where Pierre struggles is in dealing with physicality. He has a hard time playing through contact and converting at the rim. He’s a guy I’d consider on an E-10 due to his length, shooting, and feel, while seeing if the rest of his game can iron itself out as he adjusts to better competition with better resources.
-A long-term deep cut I’ll be keeping an eye on is Portland’s Austin Rapp. The 6’10” freshman is the latest standout from the Australia-to-Portland pipeline. His biggest shortcoming is clear—he’s not a great athlete or mover right now. He’s slow and a little ground-bound, which is why he has a meager 4.0 BLK%. However, his shooting and feel are off the charts. He’s smooth with the ball and has moments of great decision-making (2.4 APG, 16.3 AST%). His jumper is out of this world. He can hit deep ones and has one of the prettiest big man strokes in college hoops. Rapp has made 39.3% of his threes this year, and he’s launching them at the clip of 12.1 attempts per 100 possessions. The hope here is that Rapp can follow the Danny Wolf arc and transform his body while improving his athleticism. If he does, watch out.
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