X Factor Files #3: SCPs (or, Special Conference Performers)
X Factor Files #3: SCPs (or, Special Conference Performers)
With the conference slate in full swing, which players have made such a profound impact that they deserve a special classification amongst the X Factor Files?
Secure, Contain, Protect. No, this isn’t the motto of NBA general managers like Sam Presti and Daryl Morey regarding draft picks, although it very well could be. Instead, it’s the moniker of a fictitious clandestine organization that seeks to research paranormal or supernatural entities in the known and unknown universe.
While these odd and sometimes terrifying entities are known as SCPs, they will not be the “SCPs” covered in this edition of the X-Factor Files. If that’s your sort of thing, I’d suggest looking outside No Ceilings, but I digress.
Instead, this week’s files focus on special conference play performers. Various supposedly supernatural prospects of yore have had a miraculous non-conference schedule, only to watch their stock crumble as they wilted under the floodlights of conference play. On the flip side, some prospects wait until the lights are brightest to show their supernatural capabilities, which sends their stock into another dimension.
Today, we’ll focus on a handful of peculiar players who have taken their games to the next level in conference play. Are they verge on breaking containment and bursting onto the draft scene? Or are their flashes just an illusion?
SCP-2024-001: Dalton Knecht, Tennessee
Conference Stats: 26.9 points, 5.1 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 1.0 turnovers, 56.4% 2PT%, 42.3% 3PT% on 6.5 attempts, 76.8% FT% on 7.0 attempts
Dalton Knecht has been on the No Ceilings radar for a while now, thanks to the tireless work of agents like Maxwell Baumbach. Recently, however, Knecht has appeared to take the step up from being just a paranormal prospect to a proper SCP based on his demolition of the SEC so far this year.
Already on a tear in his first year as a Volunteer, Knecht has elevated his game to “Destroyer of Worlds” level in conference play. Through eight games in SEC play, he’s averaging 26.9 points, 5.1 rebounds, 1.9 assists, and 1.0 turnovers, all improvements upon his early season stats. His efficiency has also improved, as he’s hitting 56.4% of his twos, 42.3% of his threes, and 76.8% of his free throws in conference play.
Knecht has always been a confident scorer, but the level of lethality he’s exhibited against SEC opponents is hard to describe. Despite routinely facing extra defensive attention, Knecht has rained fire from deep, backed his way into easy post looks, and utilized his pull-up jumper to torture unwitting defenses. Per Synergy, Knecht has an “Excellent” rating on his catch-and-shoot attempts and post-ups, while he’s sitting at 37.9% on his pull-up two-pointers.
It hasn’t even been ten games in conference play, but it’s hard to see another player eclipse Knecht’s ascent in the SEC. Compared to the many supposedly special prospects who’ve scurried back into the shadows once the conference games started, Knecht’s improvements should rightfully vault his draft stock even higher.
To indeed be an SCP, players must make such a marked improvement that they’re no longer just a potential paranormal entity. Dalton Knecht’s immolation of the SEC has not only led to his file skyrocketing to the top of the SCP pile but speaks to the growing inevitability that he’ll hear his name called in the first round, if not the lottery in 2024.
SCP-2024-002: Devin Carter, Providence
Conference Stats: 21.4 points, 8.0 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 1.8 steals, 2.0 turnovers, 57.8% 2PT%, 38.2% 3PT% on 6.9 attempts, 73.3% FT% on 5.5 attempts
Although he’s an SCP, Devin Carter hasn’t just recently broken out onto the NBA draft scene. He had a tremendous second season at Providence after transferring from South Carolina and had some sleeper hype to his game before his junior year.
Still, few expected him to break out in such a violent and vivacious manner as the lead dog for the Friars. It’s been a combination of his development and Bryce Hopkins’s unfortunate ACL injury, but regardless, Carter’s become a beast this year and has only been more beastly in Big East play.
Across nine Big East games, Carter has upped the ante by averaging 21.4 points, 8.0 rebounds, 3.7 assists, and 1.8 steals per game, all of which rank first or second for the Friars in conference play. He’s been a menace as a perimeter defender, a force of nature attacking the basket for dunks, and has kept up his pristine pace from deep by hitting 38.2% of his threes with extra defensive pressure in his grill.
Again, Carter’s inclusion on several draft boards already makes him a well-known paranormal prospect. Including him as an “SCP” instead is a further piece of evidence in determining whether Carter’s breakout is a fluke or whether he can reach his high ceiling as a player.
Based on his conference crushing, I’d believe the latter put Carter in a much spookier light. Instead of solely projecting as a defensive-minded guard with limited offensive skills, Carter now looks like a player who could comfortably fit into an NBA rotation on both ends of the floor, allowing him to rise towards even the first draft round if he keeps up his ascent.
SCP-2024-003: Johnell Davis, FAU
Conference Stats: 22.6 points, 6.6 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 1.4 steals, 2.3 turnovers, 53.0% 2PT%, 57.5% 3PT% on 4.4 attempts, 92.0% FT% on 5.6 attempts
Johnell Davis etched his name into the hallowed halls of small college stars when he helped lead FAU to their first Final Four last year, but he’s not done in college yet. He returned to the Owls to lead them back to the postseason and has accomplished his mission.
Davis isn’t the most athletic guard vertically, but he has a motor of a vengeful spirit on both ends of the floor. He handles a good share of primary ball-handling duties for the Owls, picks up tough assignments on the defensive end, and has continued to round out his rebounding and passing to solidify his game.
Davis has gone from his early spirited play to hooping like a man possessed in conference play. He’s up to 22.6 points, 6.6 rebounds, 3.2 assists, and 1.4 steals per game, all while hitting a ridiculous 57.5% of his shots from deep and 92.0% of his free throws. Whether on hard drives into the lane or moonshots from beyond the arc, Davis has already led FAU to a few wins in their first season in the AAC.
While he’s been a transcendent all-around player, there are a few reasons to be skeptical of Davis’s supernatural classification. Eventually, his shooting will regress closer to his career 37.7% mark from the three-point range, dampening his star and impact. He’s also getting to the line and converting at a much higher clip than usual, which may not be sustainable.
Even if he does fall a bit below his high standard in AAC play, based on both this year and last, it’s worth considering Davis as an eventual NBA prospect. He may not have the preferred measurables or clearly defined role, but it’s hard to imagine a player with his defensive zeal, shooting touch, and undying motor not finding a way to stick at some level in the NBA.
SCP-2024-004: Basheer Jihad, Ball State
Conference Stats: 21.0 points, 8.5 rebounds, 1.3 blocks, 3.4 turnovers, 46.3% 3PT% on 4.1 attempts, 76.8% FT% on 8.2 attempts
When investigating special conference performers, context is everything. The non-conference slate can be a cakewalk for power conference players where they pad their stats. On the other hand, the most challenging matchups that smaller college stars face are often those outside of their conference.
Basheer Jihad and the Ball State Cardinals fall somewhere in the middle. They played a so-so non-con slate that helped them amass wins, but they’re only 3-6 in conference play so far. However, no blame should be put on Jihad, who’s done his best to carry the team on his back and lead them to wins.
Jihad is a high-energy, ferocious forward who is versatile on offense and shows enough verve on defense. In his nine MAC conference games, Jihad has muscled his way to 21.0 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 1.3 blocks per game, leading the Cardinals in each category. He’s also rained fire upon defenses from deep on 46.3% shooting from three, earning a “Very Good” rating for his catch-and-shoot jumpers this season.
While the numbers are gaudy, it’s hard to buy everything that Jihad is doing as being ready for the next level. He’s turned the ball over 3.4 times a night, which casts doubt on his ability to function as anything less than a ball-dominant star, and he hasn’t been able to drag Ball State to even a few more wins in a mid-major conference.
Still, the fact that Jihad has started to force the hand of draftniks to consider his candidacy is a win in and of itself. He is still a talented scorer, screener, and athlete, which could provide him with enough hype to either transfer up or make the leap to the NBA this year. He’ll deserve more than just his “SCP” label if he can.
SCP-2024-005: Clarence Daniels, New Hampshire
Conference Stats: 23.9 points, 9.3 rebounds, 1.5 steals, 0.8 blocks, 62.9% 2PT%, 42.9% 3PT% on 4.4 attempts, 81.0% FT% on 5.3 attempts
When assembling the X Factor Files and hunting for SCPs, leaving no conference unexplored is essential. Even though the America East has only had four NBA alumni in the past 20 years, it’s still worth looking into the league’s stars to see if any have a shot at breaking the mold.
That’s what led me to Clarence Daniels, who has asserted himself as the apex predator of the Wildcats this season. Daniels spent a year at Montana State-Billings, a Division II school, before his second season was canceled. He then went to Lake Region State College in 2022, where he was named a NJCAA All-American. That propelled him to New Hampshire, where he’s been a critical cog since day one.
Daniels has metamorphosed into a viciously effective first option in his second season with the Wildcats, especially in conference play. Through seven games in AEC play, Daniels has averaged 23.9 points, 9.3 rebounds, 1.5 steals, and 0.8 blocks per contest on 62.9% from two-point range and 42.9% from beyond the arc on 4.4 attempts per game, numbers that make him the clear leader of the Wildcats.
As an undersized power forward, Daniels can be a chameleon on the floor, for better or worse. The fluidity and litheness that help him now could be a hindrance at the NBA level, where players bigger and stronger than Daniels will be just as agile as him. He’ll have to keep shooting and playing solid defense to have a chance against bigger predators on the court.
With such a positive foundation, however, Daniels looks primed to be a late bloomer on the draft scene and could potentially feature on a future Summer or G League roster. Due to his stealthiness, Daniels is one of the most dangerous types of SCPs: the kind you don’t see coming until it’s too late.