2025 NBA "Draft Deeper" Notebook: My Guys, Vol. 1
Our own Nathan Grubel is back under the "Draft Deeper" moniker for a check-in on the 2025 NBA Draft, with underrated prospects across each positional category.
Did you miss Draft Deeper?
For those who haven’t been following my public work closely over the last five years, I started the Draft Deeper Podcast in 2020. After having pursued opportunities in basketball, working with a private scouting firm, and learning from agents, coaches, and executives, I wanted to put out content that gave the public insight into the lessons I had learned and how they apply to basketball evaluation and the draft at large.
That podcast, as well as my written work, carried over to No Ceilings when the collective formed a few drafts ago.
While I’ve been working on covering other areas of basketball, such as the young talent in the NBA, G League, and abroad, the NBA Draft has always held a special place in my heart as it’s arguably the most important part of building a competitive roster in the NBA. It’s not just about nailing lottery picks (although “star hunting” is a crucial aspect of fielding a championship contender), but also finding talent on the margins in the second round and pools of undrafted prospects.
That was the magic of Draft Deeper. I had plenty of conversations about the cream of the crop with professionals in the industry and the esteemed members of this platform at No Ceilings, but there were times where the spotlight needed to shine on unheralded players in the college ranks.
Therefore, it’s time to harken back to Draft Deeper and look at some of my favorite prospects so far in the class across all different areas of the board. Some players have first-round grades by consensus but could stand to rank higher, and some are second-round and undrafted/Two-Way contract targets.
Quite a few players were up for consideration here, so a friendly reminder that just because I didn’t write about a specific player or two doesn’t mean they aren’t on my radar! After all, this is only Volume One of the Draft Deeper Notebook for the 2025 NBA Draft!
Without further ado, let’s discuss some players by position—starting with the guards.
*All statistics used are as of 1/15/2025 and are courtesy of Sports-Reference CBB, Synergy Sports, and Bart Torvik*
Guards
Labaron Philon, Alabama
I’m a sucker for guards who do a little bit of everything to help their team win, no matter the cost.
That’s the best way to sum up Labaron Philon’s impact on Alabama so far this year. From grabbing offensive rebounds to playing passing lanes, from diving for loose balls to generating efficient offense inside the paint both scoring and on kick-outs, Philon’s well-rounded game has helped the Crimson Tide stack wins heading deeper into conference play.
Mark Sears is the leader in the backcourt, and Aden Holloway has had some great moments himself in non-conference play, but there are a few examples of this team going as Philon goes.
Philon has scored in double figures in more than half of Alabama’s games so far. He has had nine games of four or more rebounds and eight games of four or more assists on top of that. Currently rating per Synergy in the 67th percentile in terms of Total Offense and the 64th percentile in Total Defense, Philon’s two-way impact can’t be understated when it comes to finding ways to end possessions and creating new opportunities for his team.
When it comes to playing with poise, Philon is great at changing gears and knowing when to pick up the pace, or when to slam on the brakes and take advantage of cracks in the defense. Not to mention, he’s just a tough-nosed competitor who lives to outplay the man opposite him at the point guard position.
The shooting is a major question mark, and one that will have to get answered if Philon is to live up to a higher draft selection given the landscape of today’s NBA. But given his touch around the rim, with floaters, and on long twos, Philon has a number of positive indicators in his favor that suggest development in that area of his game in the long haul.
Looking around the NBA, it seems every winning environment has guards that embrace doing the little things, make correct decisions far more often than not, and compete on both ends to create every chance possible for efficient offense. Pure scoring guards are a dime a dozen at the end of benches and even in the G League and other professional environments. Scrappy guards like Philon who have his speed, handle, and spirit hold onto rotation spots—if not starting spots—in the NBA.
A number of guards have been discussed for lottery consideration in the 2025 NBA Draft, but I don’t hear Philon’s name nearly enough. If he continues the run he’s been on into February and March, that should change.
Robert Wright III, Baylor
Baylor’s backcourt is seemingly crowded every single season, making it difficult for one person to stand out as the “engine”.
If I were to try and point to a large reason why the Bears have stability in the backcourt on a possession-to-possession basis, I’d actually look at Robert Wright III, who has put up excellent numbers as a freshman yet hasn’t been discussed as a serious mainstream contender to enter the 2025 draft pool.
Wright has come off the bench primarily for Baylor, but he’s been one of the team’s most effective scorers as well as arguably the best pure passer on the roster. While his turnovers haven’t been “spotless”, his overall passing vision, ball placement, and touch have really helped get everyone organized and in the best position to score. And when he’s gotten opportunities to let it fly, Wright has been a very effective long-range shooter, converting on 41.3% of his jump shots and an even greater mark of 43.8% on his catch-and-shoot looks.
The spacing and playmaking combo Wright provides is as solid of a baseline as any could expect from a freshman off the bench in a super-sixth-man-type role. In terms of what this means from a draft standpoint, there’s plenty of optimism for how his game could translate at the next level. His ability to play out of pick-and-roll, relocate for open jump shots, and play off of higher usage teammates may allow him to step in as a primary facilitator or complement a jumbo-sized creator in the backcourt.
Defensive concerns will always be present with a 6’1” guard, no matter what his indicators are in terms of ratings and metrics. Teams in the league know how to hunt for mismatches and switches. But a guard who has a mature offensive game that could add positive minutes off the bench with room to develop is exactly the type of player teams should take a look at late in the first and into the second round of the draft.
Keshon Gilbert, Iowa State
I’ve been torn on Keshon Gilbert in the past, as over the course of multiple seasons his areas of improvement have remained relatively the same in terms of perimeter shooting efficiency and cutting down on turnovers with higher usage.
Gilbert’s playmaking overall still falls in the same camp to me in terms of his vision and passing placement, but his upward trajectory as a scorer inside the arc has created even more opportunities to get others involved because of how much attention he commands once he gets into the next level of the defense.
Shooting nearly 57% on two-point shots, Gilbert has taken his finishing to another level. Possessing an electric first step to get by his man at the point of attack, Gilbert’s confidence attacking downhill while being able to convert looks at different angles has really tied his game together in a meaningful way. Not to mention how often he gets to the free throw line—an absurd .555 rate.
His jump shooting has taken a step back from prior years in terms of self-created looks, but he has knocked down 45% of his catch-and-shoot threes off the ball, which is enough of a weapon to warrant attention from defenders when he doesn’t have the ball in his hands.
Combine these elements together with the fact that he has the size to compete defensively in the NBA, and there’s a lot to like about Gilbert’s chances to stick around. He’s worth a flier in the second round and should find himself on a Two-Way contract at minimum. And given how he’s able to manufacture offense inside the arc and pass on the move in ways that other guards have struggled to in the G League, Gilbert’s time on a non-standard NBA deal should be limited once he steps into his professional career.
Wings
Darrion Williams, Texas Tech
Admittedly, I’m still somewhat of a skeptic about how Darrion Williams translates to the NBA after seeing him in person around a month ago in Brooklyn. So why would I have him on a list of “my guys” leading up to the 2025 draft?
Because this is an argument to buy into proven production if the analytics scream at you to do so.
Watching Williams work in terms of how he gets buckets, passes, and commits to doubling and helping on defense reminds me a ton of what I saw from Dillon Jones at Weber State. Jones had to operate as more of a de facto point guard due to how that roster was constructed more so than Williams, who has a number of lethal perimeter options around him. But Texas Tech is much more dangerous with Williams making decisions and reads in post-ups, short rolls, and handoffs working two-man games with the likes of Chance McMillian and Elijah Hawkins. Having plus shooters alongside of those two, like Kevin Overton and Christian Anderson, also helps set Williams up with space on the interior to delve into his deep bag of fakes, fades, and runners.
Williams can shoot from the outside, as the numbers have proven so over his career, but the way he’s able to attack mismatches because of his polish as a scorer inside the arc could offer him nice opportunities off the bench for an NBA team.
Smart, active, heads-up, and confident in his game, Williams has a lot of the same elements that I saw in Jones, yet I didn’t fully buy into him because of the physical package. Shorter than you’d expect for someone who is better suited defensively to guard forwards, Jones’ speed and athleticism didn’t jump off the page outside other than his length. Williams looked slow on tape, even slower in person. Those players who might be a step slower yet anticipate well have found success in the league of late, as more offenses have become driven by constantly making decisions to share and move the ball rather than purely breaking down defenders in isolation sets.
If Williams wasn’t as good on the boards or a reliable shooter, I’d say his case would fall apart. But his physicality, active hands, soft touch, and overall awareness on both ends is too good to pass up, despite some questions I may still have.
The analytical profile for Williams shouts first round. And Williams might be the type of role player NBA teams find too good to pass on in the 20-30 range, especially playoff teams looking to add depth from an older rookie who could step in and contribute from day one.
Sion James, Duke
One thing I’ve begun to value much more in players who project into specific roles rather than higher usage starters in the NBA is if they have skills that can scale up or down depending on different situations.
For example, a player who is a prime spot-up shooter but doesn’t have any ball skills at the next level isn’t nearly as valuable as someone who can bring the ball back out and reset the offense out of pick-and-roll, hand-off, or give-and-go situations.
Sion James handled the ball and made decisions as a secondary creator well at Tulane before transferring to Duke, where his gadget-style game projected to slot in well alongside Cooper Flagg, Kon Knueppel, and company.
And to James’ credit, he’s been a reliable rotational piece whether he’s been in the starting lineup or off the bench for the Blue Devils. James can make plays for others, create offense with timely steals and deflections, and crash the glass. He’s also knocked down 42.4% of all of his jumpers, including 48% of his catch-and-shoot looks.
James is built like a tank on the wing, and he has the strength and lateral quickness to guard multiple positions at the next level. If his shooting progression translates well, James’ ability to score and distribute off the bounce creates the type of role player package that every NBA team needs off the bench.
From a draft standpoint, I’d find it difficult to believe he doesn’t hear his name called within the top 45 picks when all is said and done.
Forwards
Alex Karaban, UConn
I don’t need to spend a ton of time breaking down Alex Karaban’s game here, as my friend Maxwell Baumbach already did a wonderful job here.
What I will say, though, is that Karaban was tailor-made to play a role on a smart NBA team that thrives on the principles of spacing and quick decision-making.
Karaban’s feel for the game is very sound for a 6’7” forward. He’s strong, competes on the glass, knows where to be on both sides of the ball, and has excellent timing in terms of getting his hand on blocked shots as a baseline help defender.
He’s operated well as a distributor within UConn’s offense, helping to create offense with snappy decisions. NBA offenses are at their best when there are fewer ball stoppers and more ball movers. Karaban fits that description perfectly, as he sees the floor and operates with a plan rather than dribbling the air out of the ball waiting for someone else to do his job for him.
All of these skills are quite complementary, but aren’t even what he does best on the floor. Karaban’s shooting has moved into borderline elite territory for a prospect. Karaban has converted over 42% of all jump shots, 39% of his catch-and-shoot looks, and over 61% of his shots off the dribble. Karaban’s mechanics in terms of shot preparation and overall balance are among some of the best in this draft class, which helps to create a very tangible floor of NBA value.
Teams and evaluators may not consider him a lottery-level prospect, but how many players can actually match his strengths and awareness on both sides of the ball? Yes, there are some athletic limitations as far as not being an explosive above-the-rim finisher or dynamic creator that can break down the best perimeter defenders. But Karaban doesn’t have to be either of those things if all of his other strengths translate well.
Karaban has spent multiple years in Dan Hurley’s system, which is predicated on nearly all of the same principles as most NBA offenses. He can slot in tomorrow and find a way to contribute positively at the next level, and in most drafts there aren’t more than 15 guys who actually reach that level and play 20+ minutes a night.
I’d bet on Karaban to offer role player upside similar to what Tristan Da Silva is doing for the Orlando Magic, and a player like that is worth betting on in the lottery.
Alex Condon, Florida
Alex Condon is finally getting some national attention after a string of great games against SEC competition.
Admittedly, I didn’t realize how productive of a freshman he actually was when I went back and looked at his numbers, having become intrigued off his tape this year. And, boy, was I wrong to not have him higher on my preseason watch lists. Condon is as productive of an NBA-ready forward as you’ll find in the college ranks.
Standing at 6’11”, Condon’s frame could stand to add some more muscle, and I think it will. That will only further his production on the interior, as he’s already a great rebounder who explodes off two feet and is a sneaky great second jumper. Condon is tough as nails fighting against other forwards and bigs, and is the type of run-and-jump play finisher with size that NBA teams are looking for alongside rim-running, drop coverage bigs—particularly on defense.
Condon covers a lot of ground on defense, and plays the backline help defender role well from a shot-blocking standpoint. He has the mobility and quickness to stay with opposing ball handlers who attack him, and is rangy to rotate and help when a big man can’t make up the difference and gets beaten in space.
Offensively, Condon finishes incredibly well around the basket and is a better dunker than the numbers/opportunities indicate up to this point. He’s also flashed some outside touch from distance despite his lower volume of attempts. His follow through mechanics are just fine for a player his size, and I buy the touch despite the fact he could still stand to make some tweaks at the base of his shot.
Still, this type of package in a 6’11” forward is incredibly enticing for any NBA team to take a chance on, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he starts to trend more towards the first round than current mainstream big boards suggest.
Eric Dixon, Villanova
Here me out on this one. There are a few red flags in putting together a case for Eric Dixon as a draftable prospect, for sure.
To start, Dixon doesn’t project to have a defined role of any sort on the defensive end. A tweener on that side of the ball in the worst way, Dixon doesn’t have the size, length, or leaping ability to play a small-ball center role, while also not possessing the quick feet and lateral mobility of someone who can handle matchups guarding on the wing.
Opposing offenses will be able to attack someone like Dixon, but to his credit, he’s every bit of 260 pounds when players attack him on a straight line. There are some creative ways to try and hide him on that side of the ball, but that’s not exactly something coaches want to hear about a player being considered for a draft selection.
Dixon’s rebounding rates are also quite low for a player of his size, as he’s never been much of a factor on the offensive glass and is even less so now that he’s had to do everything from a perimeter shot-making perspective for Villanova to win games.
That, however, is why the case has to be made for Dixon as a second-round pick and Two-Way deal target. Dixon’s shot-making this season has been utterly freaking ridiculous. He’s averaging over 24 points per game on 49.5% shooting from the field, including 45% on all jumpers, 46.2% on his catch-and-shoot looks, and 43.1% on all of his shots off the dribble.
That level of efficiency with most of his volume coming from distance is extraordinary for a player of his archetype. I’m not sure I’ve evaluated a player quite like Dixon, and even if his percentages are outliers in the best way possible, they’re outliers on a 34.3% usage rate.
Villanova has relied on National Player of the Year-type performances from Dixon to even be competitive in some games, and he’s given everything he’s had to make sure his team has had the chance to win.
There are far worse swings NBA teams have taken on upside bets in the second round over players who have exceedingly outperformed expectations in college. Yes, he’s an older player who has likely tapped out any upside he had as a prospect, but if Dixon is truly a 38% or better three-point shooter on high volume, that’s a guy worth finding out if he can hold his own in other areas to make it onto an NBA floor.
A definite candidate for a Two-Way contract, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Dixon suiting up for an NBA franchise next season and earning actual minutes as a bona fide shot maker.
Centers
Maxime Raynaud, Stanford
Look down the list of projected prospects for the 2025 NBA Draft, and you’ll quickly notice how few centers actually grade out as legitimate candidates for a selection as of January. As of now, the following centers seem to be first-round prospects come June:
Derik Queen, Maryland
Khaman Maluach, Duke
Thomas Sorber, Georgetown
Danny Wolf, Michigan
Johni Broome, Auburn
There’s certainly wiggle room for debate on how that collection grades out and ranks amongst their peers at other positions, but those are the names most commonly referred to as first-round grades in my circles.
That being said, size matters in the NBA, and teams will constantly take chances on players who intersect at the corners of size, skill, and feel.
Maxime Raynaud might not jump off the page to some as a surefire first-round pick, but I’d be willing to bet there are a number of NBA teams that feel different on that very subject.
Standing over 7’1”, Raynaud has become a pick-and-pop threat who can efficiently space the floor for creators and drivers. His ability to both shoot and score at volume caught my attention early on in November. Raynaud was on my preseason watch list for the position, but scoring over 20 a night on efficient splits while also having his best year as a rebounder and shot blocker is enough to warrant potential first-round consideration on my end and, at worst, a top 45 grade.
There’s always discussion about NBA teams needing a stretch big to maximize and optimize athletic talents who can generate paint touches and score or distribute at will. Raynaud projects to offer that capability, so how could teams turn down the opportunity to get him on their roster?
Now, Raynaud is a little stiff on the defensive end. He’s not a leaper, and has had some issues defending in space as a big. There’s a chance he’s played off the floor in certain matchups on that side of the ball. He’s also doesn’t have an overwhelmingly positive assist-to-turnover ratio for a big man, although he’s had some nice assists this year on film.
But still, there’s a ton of value in a 7’1” shooting center who can screen effectively, roll, finish around the basket, and rebound on both ends of the floor. Even if he doesn’t crack the first round, I see no reason to pass on him early in the second. Raynaud is exactly the type of candidate an NBA team should sign to a four-year deal sooner rather than later come draft night.
Nate Bittle, Oregon
Last season, Oregon’s N’Faly Dante played himself onto NBA radars and got onto a Two-Way contract with the Houston Rockets. Through the Tip-Off Tournament period of G League competition into the regular season, Dante has proven to be a viable candidate for a standard contract should the opportunity present itself for the Rockets to convert him.
Two years in a row, Oregon might have a center on the same path in Nate Bittle.
Bittle has quietly had a well-rounded season as a scorer, shot blocker, and shooter, to an extent. His overall three-point percentage isn’t blowing anyone away, but he’s been steady at the free throw line and his form and touch are solid. Bittle also fights defensively and is lighter on his feet than some may give him credit for. He runs the floor and plays aggressively in the paint.
Solid rebounding, passing, and defensive metrics coupled with the fact he’s converted on nearly 37% of all of his jumpers at over 7 feet tall mean that Bittle is a productive player with size, length, and feel on one of the best college basketball teams in the country.
That case alone should have him on more draft radars than I’ve seen (kudos to Maxwell again for mentioning him in his Monday column this past week).
He’s not leading his conference in scoring or rebounding, but Dana Altman knows what he’s getting from Bittle on a nightly basis. That’s the type of player I’d want to roster on a Two-Way deal, see how he grades out in the G League, and possibly look to convert him to a standard deal when it’s all said and done.
Guards and undersized wings can be found all throughout the G League. The best center prospects are in the NBA for a reason, and Bittle looks the part of someone who could be in position to capitalize on the need for skilled size come June.