2026 NBA Draft Lottery Preview: Miami Heat
The No Ceilings team continues their 2026 NBA Draft Lottery Preview series, with Nick Agar-Johnson and Tyler Rucker taking on the team with the #13 pick, the Miami Heat.
Nick: The Miami Heat are in a strange position heading into the 2026 NBA Draft. After a second-straight season finishing as the tenth seed in the Eastern Conference, the Heat find themselves at a bit of a crossroads. Aside from the 83-point game from Bam Adebayo, this was a season marred by inconsistent play, extended absences from Tyler Herro and Norman Powell, and a limp to the finish that saw them drop nine of their last 15 games to slide into the play-in picture.
With Powell set to enter free agency after an All-Star campaign and Herro the subject of plenty of trade rumors, the team appears to be unsettled heading into the offseason. It remains to be seen if and/or when they decide to reset the roster, as they seem further and further removed from their #1 seed in the 2021-22 season and NBA Finals appearance the year after that. Whatever the case may be, the Heat will hope to pick up a key piece of the next great Heat team with the #13 pick in the 2026 NBA Draft.
The Heat will have a number of solid guard options on the board when they make their selection, and they might see that as an area of need, given that Powell’s status remains up in the air–and possibly Herro’s as well. Expecting the #13 pick to be a franchise savior is way too lofty, but Miami does have a number of intriguing young players, with Jaime Jaquez Jr. finishing as the Sixth Man of the Year runner-up, Pelle Larsson emerging as a gap-filling starter, and Kel’el Ware showing some of the flashes that made him such an intriguing prospect.
What are your thoughts here, Rucker? Any thoughts on the players that the Heat should be considering here with the 13th overall pick?
Rucker: This is setting up to be an all-time “I can’t believe that guy fell into Miami’s lap.” The Heat are fantastic at letting value play into their hands when it comes to the night of the draft. They stay calm and let the board play out. While there are plenty of teams that wish they were picking earlier in this draft, I think there’s a big opportunity for teams picking right outside the Top 10 to be pleasantly surprised come draft night.
The sweet spot in every draft is at the tail end of the lottery. We will always get a surprise or two in the Top 10, which means that “value” starts to present itself for a certain team. Years after swinging for superstars, I think Miami has done a solid job of improving on the margins. They are chipping away, lurking quietly for an opportunity to strike. Even if the 13th overall pick might not (in theory) be a franchise-altering piece, it’s another piece of the puzzle that can help you take a step forward. ESPECIALLY in this class.
Things are wide open for the Heat in terms of which direction they choose. While some might argue that they have some depth at certain positions, I still think the strength of this draft class could leave that concept up for discussion, especially at this point in the draft. Many expect a guard run inside the Top 10. Because of that, I think that another team could finally “break the mold” and target another position, before the well runs dry. That’s where it could get interesting for Miami. One of my favorite targets for them is Alabama guard Labaron Philon. I’m a huge believer in Philon, and even though they selected Kasparas Jakucionis last year, who I still think will be a big Year 2/Year 3 jump player, I think Philon would give you another dynamic ball-handler, except with real creation juice.
Baylor redshirt sophomore Cameron Carr is another name I think would be a fascinating target for the Heat. Carr has serious bucket-getting juice and has a rare frame to go with that archetype of player. The other name I wouldn’t be surprised to see still on the board when Miami picks: Michigan forward Yaxel Lendeborg. Is he Heat Culture enough?
Nick, I think Miami is in a really good spot. There are some real pieces that could pop and turn into pieces to build with for the Heat. Anyone else come to mind for you? Anyone you are specifically intrigued by?
Nick: I would absolutely sprint to the podium for Labaron Philon if he were still on the board for the Heat at #13. As our colleague Quinn recently wrote, it is long past time for people to stop ignoring Philon. He was a clear first round guy for me last year due to his incredible defense–and then he doubled his scoring this season while improving his efficiency inside the arc and emphatically answering any remaining questions about his shooting. His defense this season wasn’t quite as superlative this season as it was in his freshman year, but that’s to be expected with his much-larger offensive burden this past season. I would expect him to return to being an elite defender pretty quickly at the NBA level, and I’d be even more confident in that prediction if he ended up in a Heat uniform. Philon and Davion Mitchell defending at the point of attack for 48 minutes? Absolutely sign me up.
I would also be quite happy as a Heat fan if Lendeborg fell to them at #13. He might not be “Heat culture” enough, but his two-way play and ability to contribute right away at the 4 would be huge. I doubt it will surprise you to hear that I’m still in on Nikola Jovic, but Miami could still use help in the frontcourt that Lendeborg could provide. Carr also could make a lot of sense for the Heat, especially if one or both of Powell or Herro start next season in different uniforms.
Here’s another name for you: what about Karim Lopez? He’s continued to develop over his two years with the New Zealand Breakers, and I really buy into his shooting development and high-feel, jack-of-all-trades kind of off-ball game. He would fit right in with Miami’s up-tempo offense (they led the league in pace last season), and wouldn’t demand the ball if the Heat end up keeping around their high-volume shooters in Powell and Herro.
Also, just for fun: the Heat are also currently slated to have the 41st pick in the second round. Are there any second round targets who would intrigue you for Miami? I would be ecstatic if I were Miami and Ryan Conwell dropped to #41; Jaden Bradley also just screams “Heat Culture” to me, and I think Alex Karaban could be an intriguing add for them as an elite shooting threat with winning pedigree and solid off-ball defense.
What do you think, Rucker? Any other players you think are worth mentioning at #13? Any potential second round sleepers that make sense to you for the Heat?
Rucker: Karim Lopez is going to be a bit of a wildcard with this class. He’s going to be the top international prospect who didn’t go the NCAA route. Lopez could be penciled in anywhere, including Miami, but he’s got as wide of a range as any right now. If Miami swung, you’re getting a raw talent with some intriguing skills to develop from the forward position. I think the shot will need some work to unlock the goods, but there’s a good two-way talent waiting to be molded.
In terms of other names to have in the mix for Miami at #13, I really think that you’ve got to be open-minded if you’re a Heat fan. All options could potentially be on the table. Yes, I understand that the Heat have Bam Adebayo and Kel’el Ware. But if your team doctor gives the green light on Jayden Quaintance, can you really pass up that type of potential value at 13? It might be a bit rich for my preference, but Texas junior Dailyn Swain could be another name to throw into the mix. Swain has the tools to be an impactful “swiss-army-knife” type of piece. He’s got toughness, and I think he could do wonders on the defensive side of the ball if he leans on the “Xavier version” of his game.
I love the shoutouts from you as well when it comes to pick #41. I’m a massive Ryan Conwell believer and think some team is going to get an absolute find wherever he lands. Even for a team that might have some intriguing pieces in the backcourt, Conwell just knows how to play. That same exact sentence could be said for the other name you mentioned in Arizona senior Jaden Bradley. His growth over the years in Tucson was tremendous, and he’d be a sensational rotation asset for a team.
I’ll throw out another potential “Heat Culture” piece. How about Houston Cougars senior guard Emanuel Sharp? If you’re looking for a player to just “go get him” in the second round, it’s going to be Sharp. He’s got the versatility and toughness every team is looking for in a potential bench asset. If you’re coming off watching these NBA Playoffs closely, it’s hard not to imagine a player like Sharp figuring out a way to earn minutes. He’s an absolute dawg.
Nick, any last thoughts on the Heat? Any names you think should be at the top of the “wish list”?
Nick: I’ll start with Sharp at 41; I think that he could absolutely be a Heat kind of player. There aren’t many players in this draft class or any other who will be tougher or work harder than Sharp.
As for the other names in the mix at #13, I’m with you on needing to be open-minded. Quaintance will be a wild card option for any team in the late lottery mix, and he could absolutely be in consideration here. His defensive upside is outstanding, and if his medicals come back relatively clean, it would be hard for any team to pass him up near the end of the lottery–even with Miami’s big man group. Swain would also be an intriguing bet as someone who could toggle between forward spots, especially if Powell comes back to provide the kind of spacing that Swain would need around him.
The Miami Heat are in a strange in-between spot right now that hasn’t been the norm for them in many a year. Depending on how the board falls for them at #13, they might be one of the best-positioned teams to just take a swing on one of the higher-variance prospects on the board and bet on their coaching staff and system to help them figure it out. Given what history has shown us over the last decade and a half, that might be a safer bet for the Heat than it would be for the vast majority of NBA teams.