A Scout’s Eyes: The Outcome Spectrum | Envisioning Low and Medium for the Top 2025 Bigs (Part Two)
Jam is back with the second and final part of the Outcome Spectrum Series, finishing up the bigs with potential first rounders in Danny Wolf, Collin Murray-Boyles, and Yanic Konan Niederhauser.
As I outlined in Part One, I find envisioning low and median outcomes for prospects a very useful exercise when evaluating prospects. As much as we want to be optimistic about what the ceiling could be, we must always consider realistic low and median outcomes because of the varying factors that contribute to or can hinder a prospect from reaching all of or a majority of their potential. In the last of my two-part series, let’s take a look at the potential low and median outcomes for three more bigs in Danny Wolf, Collin Murray-Boyles, and Yanic Konan Niederhauser.
Danny Wolf | Junior | Michigan | 6’10.50” | 7’2.25” wingspan | 252 pounds
2024-25 Stats: 13.2 PPG | 9.7 RPG (2.3 off) | 3.6 APG | 1.4 BPG | 0.7 SPG
Other than Derik Queen, I don’t know if there is another big man in the class who’s as skilled or versatile as Danny Wolf. Wolf is an advanced playmaker with ball skills that can comfortably operate ball screens as both the handler and screener. He’s a real weapon in inverted ball screens, short-rolls, DHOs, and out in transition on grab-and-gos while providing upside as a floor spacer (career 33.6 % three-point shooter on 2.4 3PA). Even with his defensive limitations, Wolf is a lottery-caliber prospect.
Low Outcome: Sandro Mamukelashvili with more consistent playing time
Draft Year Stats: 17.5 PPG | 7.6 RPG (1.9 off) | 3.2 APG | 0.6 BPG | 1.1 SPG
I was very high on Mamukelashvili and, quite frankly, I still am a believer. He’s another skilled left big brought a ton of versatility as a handler and playmaking threat alongside his shooting/shotmaking upside. When Mamukelashvili got a chance to play significant minutes, it appeared that the vision was coming together. During the 2022-23 season, despite it being a small 19-game sample size (seven starts), Mamu averaged the most minutes in his career (23.3) and produced some encouraging numbers: 10.8 points, 6.8 rebounds, 2.4 assists, and 0.9 stocks. With consistent playing time, that’s a realistic low-level outcome and production level for a skilled role-playing big like Wolf.
Median Outcome: Kelly Olynyk with more ball skills and playmaking upside
Draft Year Stats: 17.8 PPG | 7.3 RPG (2.4 off) | 1.7 APG | 1.1 BPG | 0.7 SPG
Olynyk was a productive rotation big in the NBA for 12 years, contributing to both regular-season and postseason success. His modern skillset was built around his size, feel, playmaking, and capable three-point shooting. It allowed him to impact games and allowed him to play alongside different bigs albeit with athletic/defensive concerns.
Collin Murray-Boyles | Sophomore | South Carolina 6’6.50” | 7’0.75” wingspan | 239 pounds
2024-25 Stats: 16.8 PPG | 8.3 RPG (2.2 off) | 2.4 APG | 1.3 BPG | 1.5 SPG
CMB is one of the more intriguing and divisive prospects in the class. Although he lacks the ideal big man measurables, he’s arguably the best defender in the class (outside of Flagg) and pairs it with tremendous feel, excellent playmaking, ball skills, and some shotmaking upside.
In terms of his game and potential outcomes, I would be remiss if I didn't mention a couple of the popular high-end outcomes/comps for CMB. He often gets compared to names like Julius Randle and Draymond Green. I can’t fully get behind the Randle comp blend mainly because of the great disparity in defensive and offensive value/projection. CMB is a much better defender while Randle is the more natural scorer, shot-creator, and multi-level shotmaker. The strengths and weaknesses don't really align.
CMB’s game is much more aligned with Draymond Green’s. The Draymond Green starter pack is easy to see. The only issue with projecting that outcome is the fact that Green is going to be a no-doubt Hall of Famer, so it gets a bit dicey. Nonetheless, if EVERYTHING hits, maybe an All Star or borderline All-Star level of Draymond Green makes sense.
Low Outcome: Xavier Tillman with more upside/offensive upside
Draft Year Stats: 13.7 PPG | 10.3 RPG (2.7 off) | 3.0 APG | 2.1 BPG | 1.2 SPG
Tillman received a ton of draft buzz during his cycle and was thought to be an instant rotation player who provides value with his defensive playmaking, passing, play-finishing feel, and functional ball skills. Tillman’s playing time has been limited with Boston over the past two seasons, but he appeared to be a quality rotational big man during his time with Memphis, who could continue with his modern skill set despite not being a shooter.
Median Outcome: Shorter Isaiah Hartenstein
Draft Year Stats: 4.2 PPG | 3.1 RPG (0.8 off) | 0.5 BPG | 0.8 SPG
The emergence of Hartenstein over the past two seasons into an invaluable piece of a championship-caliber team has been remarkable. His impact on both ends of the floor could be a model for the similarly skilled CMB. Both are skilled offensive players who rely on their feel, playmaking/passing, and ball skills offensively while providing value as a defensive playmaker and rebounder.
Yanic Konan Niederhauser | Junior | Penn State | 6’11.25” | 7’3.25” wingspan | 243 pounds
2024-25 Stats: 12.9 PPG | 6.3 RPG (2.1 off) | 0.8 APG | 2.3 BPG | 0.7 SPG
Konan Niederhauser wasn't on many, if any, consensus pre-season mocks or top 60 big boards. Now, he’s widely considered a Top 40ish prospect who could hear his name called late in the first round. The Swiss big man broke out in his second season as a Nittany Lion with his blend of NBA positional size, movement skills, play-finishing, and shot blocking. Konan Niederhauser has a ready-made NBA role (play-finishing rim protector) and the translatable skills and tools to excel in it.
Low Outcome: Yves Missi with more offensive upside
Draft Year Stats: 10.7 PPG, 5.6 RPG (2.6 off) | 0.4 APG | 1.5 BPG | 0.6 SPG
Missi may become the popular low-end outcome name for the toolsy play finishing-shot blocking big man archetypes. He leveraged his raw physical tools and opportunity for consistent minutes in a clear role to be an immediate contributor for the Pelicans in a major position of need. As a rookie, Missi averaged 9.1 points, 8.2 rebounds (3.5 off), 1.4 assists, 1.3 blocks, and 0.5 steals across 26.8 minutes per game (73 games, 67 starts). If given the right fit, replicating similar numbers in a rotation role is certainly obtainable for Konan Niederhauser and could lay the foundation for a successful career similar to Missi.
Median Outcome: Daniel Gafford
Draft Year Stats: 16.0 PPG | 8.7 RPG (2.8 off) | 0.7 APG | 2.0 BPG | 0.9 SPG
A second round selection (38th overall by Chicago) out of Arkansas, Gafford has found his way in the league as an athletic, stout-bodied big man who excels as a pick-and-roll lob threat/play finisher and shot blocker. We saw the optimized version of Gafford playing with a pick-and-roll maestro like Luka and being a valuable member of a championship-caliber team. Obviously, there is only one Luka. However, the playbook of a big man like Konan Niederhauser finding success when paired with a lead handler who’s both a legit passing and scoring threat out of ball screens is clear.
I‘m quite curious about Hansen.
Interesting stuff. First,I think people fell in love with the idea of wolf ..not with Wolf. His hands are not great. Hence turnovers his defense is very poor. Not a lotto prospect. For me not a first round guy. Niedenhauser is not like Missi. The penn at kid has heavy legs. His vertical was decent but I don't see it in games. As for bigs Murray Boyles..not really a big...but I love Boyles and he figures to be an elite defensive starter who maybe doesn't score a lot. But enough . Id rate him top five.