Ace in the Hole

Corey Tulaba gets an updated look at potential Top 5 pick Ace Bailey after attending a Rutgers team practice.

It isn’t often that there is a palpable buzz during summer workouts within the scouting community coming out of Piscataway, NJ. However, that’s all changed, as the RAC will play host to the electric duo of Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper—both potential Top 5 picks in the 2025 NBA Draft—during the 2024-25 college season.

I had the opportunity to get up close eyes on both guys for a week last April at the Nike Hoop Summit, but since I’m just a short drive from Rutgers’s facilities, I figured I’d make the trek to take advantage of getting an updated look at Bailey and Harper, as well as the rest of the Scarlet Knights, at the team’s final August practice.

Harper (my current number two overall prospect) participated in drills but didn’t go live in the scrimmage as he was coming off of an injury; so my main focus on this excursion was Airious “Ace” Bailey. 

For the uninitiated, Bailey is a 6’10” fluid scoring wing with springs for legs and a penchant for making the difficult look extraordinarily easy. 

Bailey is the kind of scoring prospect who is completely unbothered by shot contests, an unteachable skill that lends itself to a truly versatile shot profile. That skill was on full display during both drills and the sixteen-minute team scrimmage that capped this Rutgers practice. Bailey led his team with sixteen points, knocking down shots from every spot on the floor. He buried a transition pull-up three off the catch, displaying his ability to stay balanced off forward momentum. He hit a smooth mid-post fadeaway from the baseline in the halfcourt, showing off his advanced footwork and ability to shoot over the top. He got loose in transition and finished above the rim. He hit a fifteen-foot dribble pull-up in semi-transition from the elbow extended. He looked every part of the tough shot maker he is and will be billed as during his freshman campaign. 

As impressive as Bailey’s shot-making prowess was, the shot diet wasn’t super healthy. To be clear, Bailey was way more hit than miss during the scrimmage, and it wasn’t as if he was out there chucking up bad shots. The shot selection just often felt more good than great. Bailey is clearly comfortable and capable of hitting those high degree of difficulty shots, shots that star-level players often take and are relied upon to make. Still, there is making tough shots when the offense breaks down, and then there is settling for jumpers. Bailey did settle for some tough midrange shots that—although he is clearly capable of making them and they were within the flow of the offense (like the fadeaway baseline middy off a slick cut)—were on the tougher side of the shot-making spectrum.

That shot selection is, in part, why some scouts around the interwebs have soured on Bailey as a potential Top 5 guy heading into the year. Bailey is going to dazzle with some of the shots he knocks down, but some of those shots may not lend themselves to the kind of efficiency scouts with a more analytical approach prefer.

Shot selection isn’t the only improvement area for Ace. His ability to create his own shot is potentially special; however, his handle still needs some tightening. Bailey lost control of the ball on two separate possessions where he tried to shake his defender by going behind the back. 

His slight frame also stood out way more next to his more upperclassman teammates than it did amongst his high school-aged peers when I saw him at the Nike Hoop Summit. Bailey will clearly need to put on weight to bang with the jump in physicality at the next levels. It won’t surprise me if the strength deficiencies lead to some early struggles at the rim, as well as some loose ball turnovers against more physical defensive match-ups. With that said, Bailey may also be the tallest dude on the Rutgers roster. The dude has legit height that helps bridge the strength gap in some ways. His frame would not be something I’d be worried about in the long term if I was an NBA decision-maker. It will be imperative to take a long view when it comes to Ace’s body development when projecting him forward as a prospect. Where he is now, is not where he’ll be in five years physically.

While Bailey has mostly been known as a scoring prospect throughout his high school career, I walked away impressed by the reads that he made during the scrimmage. Bailey made multiple high feel passes, including a slick two-hand skip from the left wing to the weak corner when the defense was overloaded on the strong side, a smooth drop-off to the dunker spot on a baseline drive, and a few drive and kicks after collapsing the defense off dribble penetration. When trying to measure score-first guys, it’s important that they are capable of showing legit flashes of leveraging the ability to score in order to make the lives of their teammates easier. Bailey did a good job of doing just that during the scrimmage, even if he is much more of an improvisational rather than manipulative playmaker at this point of his development.

Having seen Ace in multiple practice settings at this point, one of the most impressive things that he has consistently brought to the table has been how vocal he is. That kid talks his freaking butt off, man. It was one of the intangibles the No Ceilings crew all noticed at the Nike Hoop Summit, and it was a trend that continued at Rutgers. As someone who has coached kids his age for a long time, that isn’t always the case. In fact, it is often the opposite. Add in the fact that he is also now one of the youngest dudes on his team, and it becomes even more impressive. There are legit leadership qualities with Ace.

Bailey already has so much going for him, and that makes him so enticing heading into the 2025 NBA Draft cycle. But the crazy thing is that he has SO much room to grow. The kid is just scratching the surface of who he can become down the line. There will surely be bumps in the road throughout this cycle, but Bailey’s undeniable talent, along with his physical tools and intangibles make the juice well worth the squeeze.