Anton Watson is This Year's Skeleton Key
There are certain cliche terms that can get overused for NBA draft prospects. Given Anton Watson's ridiculous versatility, however, does he deserve the title?
As a writer and evaluator, I often run into problems that are wildly different from one another. While I may experience writer’s block from time to time, I rarely experience basketball block, as there’s always some sort of game on year-round. Similarly, when evaluating their upside, I don’t parse over a specific type of sentence as I do a specific type of play for a player.
The two passions intersect problem-wise in phrases or descriptors embedded in my vocabulary. Despite my best efforts to parse through synonyms and not fall back on classic phrases to describe players, I do find myself rubbing my temples in frustration when I call a rim-running, shot-blocking center a “two-way” player for the tenth time in an article, for example.
That leads me to an oft-repeated phrase in my lexicon: the skeleton key. Dating back to ancient Rome, the concept behind a skeleton key is a key that can open several locks. Besides sounding pretty badass regarding key titles, its proverbial meaning often leads me to use the phrase to describe a specific type of player.
It’s hard for terms other than “skeleton key” to come to mind when watching a player make the right pass, cut for a tough lay-up, sprint back on defense, call out a correct switch, and recover to take a charge. To borrow from other cliche phrases, the type of player who earns the “skeleton key” moniker is a do-it-all or a jack-of-all-trades type.
No matter how much I tried to avoid it, a specific player in this year’s draft class has made me itch to use the phrase in question to describe their game. As a player, Gonzaga’s Anton Watson is so good at plugging into so many different roles and unlocking dimensions on offense and defense that it’s hard not to imagine him as a skeleton key, prying open various locks for his current and future team.
Combination Lock: Watson By the Numbers
Before we slam the stats with Watson, let’s look back on his career at Gonzaga. After winning Mr. Basketball for Washington State, an honor he earned after tearing apart his high school league in Gonzaga’s backyard, Watson committed in his junior year to play for Mark Few and the Zags.
Watson has always been a jittery, athletic bundle of controlled chaos as a player. He’s a menace on both ends of the court and is keen to fill the holes in a lineup that would otherwise tank its effectiveness. Offensively, Watson does most of his damage around the rim with savage dunks and slick finishes, although his passing and shooting have slowly improved. Defensively, Watson has the rare trio of length, strength, and foot speed to seamlessly switch, fight through screens, and harry opponents wherever they are on the floor.
Across five years with Gonzaga, Watson showed steady improvement in all facets of his game. He missed the back half of his freshman campaign with a shoulder injury, but since then, Watson has progressed from a key bench player to starting all the games in his senior and fifth year with the Zags. In his last year with the Zags, he finally stepped into a spotlight role and was rightfully named to the All-WCC First Team.
Each year he played, Watson improved at a different skill to round out his game. As a freshman, he averaged just 4.9 points a game; as a senior, Watson averaged 14.5 points per game. He was also remarkably efficient, shooting 60.7% on two-pointers and 41.2% on his threes, although his deep shots were on limited volume.
Alongside his scoring improvements, Watson’s assists per game steadily rose in each of his years while his turnover percentage went down simultaneously. Conversely, Watson never had less than a 2.8% steal percentage and a 1.8% block percentage. That speaks to his rangy ability to impact the game on the defensive end, even though the film tells the whole story.
While the basic counting stats are nice, looking at the deeper end of Watson’s advanced statistics is more fun to understand his skeleton key nature. To fully encapsulate the wide-ranging effects of Watson’s impact on the game is a difficult query to pull on BartTorvik. It’s tempting to find every positive indicator and throw it in the mix, but that leads to an imperfect sample of what kind of player Watson can be.
Perhaps it's fitting that when running my “skeleton key” query (over 60% two-point percentage, sub 12% turnover percentage, 2.0% steal percentage, 2.0% block percentage, and 15% defensive rebounding rate) brings about a fascinating handful of both 2024 and all-time players, none of which can easily be pinned down in a specific mold or even successful historical archetype.
It somewhat tracks to have a septet of 6’8” players in this query, but there isn’t a lot of true connective tissue. Suppose we cut off the list at >5 BPM players. In that case, we’re left with five somewhat dissimilar players: skeleton key Anton Watson, jumbo stretch-four Ben Gregg, springy rim-runner JT Toppin, defensive dynamo Ryan Dunn, and first-option wing Darlinstone Dubar. Outside of Gregg, the other four have received some sort of draft or high-major buzz, which speaks to the success of the statistical profile, even if they’re all reasonably disparate players.
Historical lenses don’t help, either. Now Anthony Davis, Keegan Murray, Jae Crowder, and Killian Tillie are added to the mix, amongst a handful of other players who didn’t make it to the NBA. In my eyes, that speaks to the elusive beauty and inherent risk of a skeleton key player: while the success stories show how effective a do-it-all player can be, the have-nots illustrate why having NBA-level skills is crucial.
Before we dive into said skills and put them on wax (film), it is essential to note that, statistically, Watson was a major reason for Gonzaga’s success this past year. Per CBB Analytics, Watson was a dramatic +28.2 in his on/off numbers. It’s unlikely that he’ll have the same impact at the pro level, but it’s clear that the Bulldogs played a lot of winning basketball with Watson at the helm.
Although the advanced statistics don’t fully depict who Anton Watson could be, they speak to his pronounced impact and rare profile. It’s hard to find players who check as many boxes as he does, which bodes well for his future in the NBA. By diving deeper into his varied attributes, an even clearer picture of future success comes into the frame and is unlocked by his play.
Pad Lock: Watson’s Lockdown Defense
I often start my columns by focusing on the offensive capabilities of a prospect, but with Anton Watson, the other end of the floor is just too impressive. It starts with Watson’s physical profile, as he’s a legitimate 6’8” with other plus measurements. At last year’s G League Elite camp, Watson was measured at 241 pounds with a 7’0” wingspan. To be so quick and strong simultaneously is a tribute to the length and strength combo that powers Watson’s game.
These attributes make Anton Watson a dangerous rebounder on both ends of the floor. He’s hovered around similar defensive and offensive rebounding percentages in his five years. Still, the fact that he’s been able to maintain his production as he scales up in minutes speaks to rebounding being a plus skill for him at the next level.
Whether banging down low for tough rebounds or snatching offensive caroms, a big part of Watson’s rebounding prowess comes from his reflexes. Watson does a great job anticipating where a miss will land and moves just a half step quicker than other players to get to the right spot to grab misses.
As an on-ball defender, Watson has numerous ideal factors working in his favor. He’s light on his feet horizontally and vertically, which helps him cover ground well in the halfcourt. He plays with great technique, keeping his knees bent and sliding back and forth to impact sets that he doesn’t directly disrupt. Watson also has reasonable upper and lower body strength, which helps him absorb contact on drives.
It’s Anton Watson’s hands, however, that often put opposing players in the lock-up. Watson has a preternatural sense of when to swipe, and nowhere is safe when he’s going for steals. There’s no dominant way that Watson nabs the ball, as he’s as liable to dry rip an opposing ball-handler as he is to play the passing lane and swipe the possession away masterfully.
Off the ball, Watson has a similarly impressive resume. With his quickness, Watson can fight through screens and recover to patch holes in coverages. He also has fluid hips that allow him to change direction and stay connected to his men wherever they try to go. Like with his rebounding, Watson’s reflexes are one of his major boons for his off-ball defense. More often than not, even if he was a step slow with a rotation, Anton Watson could teleport to a previously open shooter and contest their shot.
Switching between guards and forwards will help Watson at the next level, even if he won’t have the same overwhelming physical advantages that he had playing in the WCC. Watson’s prowess on and off the ball is easy to slot into an NBA defense and could quickly become a backbone for a lockdown defense at the highest level.
Although he isn’t the tallest player on the court and will never profile as a small-ball center, Watson is a good enough shot blocker to be a potential strength at the next level. Similarly to his other skills, a mix of factors makes Watson a talented swatter. He stays vertical on contests, perfectly times his chase downs, and uses his stretchy length to alter stray attempts in the paint or beyond the arc.
Outside of the blocks and steals, for my money’s worth, the plays that make Watson a truly impressive defender are the 50-50 balls. At least once a game, Watson sells out to snatch a loose ball, makes a heady play to knock the ball off an opponent falling out of bounds, or makes a similarly brilliant reactionary play. These plays perfectly represent Watson’s motor on the defensive end, which never stops running and churns hotter than most other plays on the floor.
Similarly, when he puts it all together on one possession, it’s crystal clear to see Watson’s lofty defensive ceiling. As a wing who can fight through a screen, make a controlled contest, soak up space off-ball, whip his hips around, and force a miss from deep, Watson has some game-bending defensive potential.
While Watson may not be the highest-tier athlete, he’s certainly a force to be reckoned with on the defensive end. As a skeleton key, Watson both locks down what opposing offenses can hope to do and unlocks more creative schemes for his defense. Even if he never developed any offense, there would be enough intrigue for Watson’s defensive chops to beget some NBA looks.
Deadbolt: Rim Scoring on Lock
Luckily, Anton Watson is also a talented offensive player. Most of his appeal comes on the defensive end, but he’s distinct from other forwards of his ilk, like Ryan Dunn, who are incredibly polarizing on both sides of the floor. While I’d never confuse Watson as more than an ancillary offensive player, he has enough tools to one day add “glue guy” to the cliche monikers that describe his game.
Due to the limited nature of his offensive bag, Anton Watson’s bread and butter scoring-wise is at the rim. Per Synergy, Watson took 177 shots at the rim this year and scored at a stunning 73.4% clip at the basket. When looking at his shot chart on CBB Analytics, it’s easy to see where the brunt of Watson’s looks in the Gonzaga offense came from.
However, how Watson got his looks on the inside was as varied as they come. Per Synergy, transition was the most common type of possession for Watson when attacking, clocking in at 19% of his overall possessions, but cuts, post-ups, spot-ups, rolls to the rim, and putbacks were all above 9%. That speaks to the diversified portfolio of ways to score on the inside that Watson has on lock.
Watson used his burst on both his cuts and his transition buckets, soaring past players of all sizes to quickly get to the rim for lay-ups, dunks, and lobs. He earned a “Very Good” rating on both types of plays, shooting 68.3% in transition and 66.2% on his cuts. Even on plays where he wasn’t moving like a blur, Watson showed his innate understanding of offensive space by nestling himself under the basket for easy twos.
On his putbacks, Watson flexes his muscles, mind, and motor. Watson isn’t a great leaper; instead, he relies upon his wingspan and quickness, but he still found ways to grab 2.2 offensive boards this season. While he doesn’t jump high, Watson has a springy second jump that helps him grab rebounds and shunt them back up to the hoop in a flash.
Where Watson’s makes at the rim get more interesting are his drives and rolls to the rim. With such a solid athletic profile, it’s unsurprising that Watson is successful in space careening toward the basket. He isn’t a great ball-handler, often getting himself into trouble when he doesn’t make a quick decision, but his long strides cover ground quickly on the way to the rim.
This is likely where Watson will want to lean in when he makes it to the NBA, as there will be fewer post-up chances and taller players to out-jump him for boards. If Watson can improve his handle and be a more solid screensetter, he’ll have a chance to lock down his most reliable scoring medium and provide value as an off-ball mover. That value could be what he needs to be more than a toolsy defender at the NBA level.
Cam Locks: Passing with Flying Colors
Even more so than his finishing, Anton Watson unlocks more of his team’s offense on the court due to his prolific passing. Like with his scoring, Watson should never be confused as a primary initiator; instead, he can be viewed as a fabulous connector who can do more than the usual ball-moving wing.
If you only looked at the box score, Watson’s passing numbers wouldn’t jump out too much. He upped his assists to 2.6 per game this year, with a 13.4% assist percentage, neither of which are groundbreaking numbers. With an assist percentage that hasn’t eclipsed 15.8% over his five seasons, the more positive indicator for Watson’s passing has been his turnover percentage trickling down to a paltry 10.5% this season.
It’s just as meaningful to think about the plays that Watson doesn’t make as a passer as the ones he does. Holstering riskier passes and keeping possessions crisply running can sink a potential connector's utility. It’s a good thing, then, that Watson is also a sneakily good passer with a solid skillset with the ball in his hands.
Most of Watson’s assists came from attacking a defense that had already defended part of a set. He was a deft operator out of the post, drawing enough attention when he backed down to draw double teams to him. Then, instead of forcing a shot, Watson puts a bit of zip on his passes to waiting shooters on the wings.
On the move, Watson keeps up the same level of security with the ball in his hands. With a defense already bent, whether rolling to the rim or receiving a pass on the wing, Watson makes quick decisions on either spraying the ball to another perimeter player or dumping off the ball to a waiting forward down in the dunker spot.
The more exciting feeds that Watson makes are the varied dimes he drops. Between the full-court passes, speedy dishes that opened up Graham Ike for open lay-ups, and the bounce passes to cutters, the common denominator of all of Watson’s best assists was the same from his other dimes: his quick decision-making.
It makes sense that Watson is at his best when he moves the ball quickly. He has great reflexes and instincts on defense, which extend to his vision and timing on his passes. Similarly, although he was an integral part of this year’s Gonzaga team, he had only a 20.8% usage percentage, which is minuscule compared to forwards who played the whole season with the ball in their hands.
At the next level, it’s easy to imagine Anton Watson offering the same benefits as a passer to his team as he did for the Zags. He’ll keep the ball skipping around the perimeter, make good decisions on the fly, and even pass teammates open. With his interior scoring and defense, Watson's plus passer status has unlocked another dimension of utility.
Knob Locks: The Final Key Ingredient
It’s probably been said just as often as I’ve used “skeleton key,” if not more, but the shooting ability of any prospect has become one of the most critical determinants of future NBA success. That’s not to say that every player needs to be a deadeye to succeed; instead, there’s much less room in the modern game to accommodate a poor shooter from most traditional positions.
Instead of beating around the bush, let’s address the problem head-on: while Anton Watson just had the best shooting year of his career and topped 40% from deep, it’s hard to trust those numbers. While there is some evidence on tape of Watson improving as a shooter, I’m not quite ready to proclaim that his deep shooting is a skill he can bank on at the next level, much less a marked advantage as his percentage suggests.
First, the good thing is that Anton Watson has become a better shooter over his five years at Gonzaga. He started his career off as an 11.1% shooter from deep, but he has seen his shooting efficiency steadily improve with each passing year. It’s a testament to his skills and work ethic to have taken one of his biggest weaknesses and lessened it to this degree.
Virtually all of Watson's success as a shooter comes from the catch. Per Synergy, only two of Watson’s 52 three-pointers attempted were off the dribble. As a spot-up shooter, Watson has a compact and crispy form that doesn’t require too much load time to get into his shooting motion. In particular, Watson did a good job of drifting to the corners and setting himself up for more effortless looks from deep to help keep the Gonzaga offense humming.
If Watson can hit corner threes at a reasonable clip, say 36%, once he’s in the NBA, his utility as a player skyrockets. He goes from a minorly flawed connector to one of the league's more scheme-proof young role players. If a team had to play him closer on the perimeter, he could unlock his passing and drive more, further juicing the offensive players around him.
Sadly, that’s much more of a theoretical perspective on where Watson is now. Call me a curmudgeon, but I need to see more convincing shooting evidence from him to be dissuaded from the more obvious orange flags with his overall shooting touch.
Let’s start with the volume: Anton Watson only took 52 three-pointers this past year. That’s too small of a number to make any grand conclusions, especially when the volume was nearly identical to last season. In 2022-2023, Watson went 16/48 from deep, while in 2023-2024, the number was nigh identical at 21/51 from distance. Despite making just five more threes than last year, Watson’s shooting percentage jumped from 33.3% to 41.2%, which gives a false impression of massive growth.
Part of the issue is that shooting wasn’t part of Watson’s role at Gonzaga. He operated as a screener and wing connector for others, rarely hunting his shot. Still, given how statistically insignificant this year’s improvement in efficiency from deep is, there’s no real evidence that Watson has improved as a shooter.
Another piece of counter-evidence is a familiar indicator of shooting success: Watson’s free-throw shooting numbers. Across five years and 413 free-throw attempts, Watson is only a 62.7% free-throw shooter. That speaks more to this area of Watson’s game, which still locks him out of certified glue guy status.
In terms of his jumpers inside the arc, the issues with Watson’s shooting rear their heads. He only took fourteen of these jump shots this year, most of which came late in the shot clock. Sure, Watson had to get a shot up on more than half of these, but he also lacked a consistent shooting motion or base on his attempts. That’s more of his issue than any glaring mechanical issue. At this juncture, Watson’s simply not a consistent shooter when it comes to his form.
It would be a shocker if an NBA team schemed Watson to take midrange jumpers often, so it’s not a big issue that he can’t hit them well. What it represents instead, however, is the current ceiling on his game. His midrange miscues are a microcosm of the minor issues that have added up to serve as a major limiter to his game.
Even if he never develops a jumper, Anton Watson can likely play a bench role at the NBA level. He’s a plus defender, passer, and finisher, which should beget him some minutes at the highest level. However, with the addition of a jumper, it would be hard to justify keeping Watson off the court as a starter, given his skeleton key nature.
Pick a Door, any Door: The NBA Outlook
Due to his versatility, Anton Watson fits my overused skeleton key moniker. He fills many different roles on both ends of the court and has a marked impact on winning basketball. As an older role player, Watson is likely who he is by now, but even if he doesn’t develop new skills, he already has enough to make a compelling NBA case.
As a defender, Watson can lockdown on or off the ball. He can unlock a team’s offense with his passing and movement without the ball. By not needing the ball to get his scoring, Watson also makes himself more useful to a team that already has an established hierarchy and instead is looking to find a final key player.
It may sound reductive, but the only thing that separates Watson from several prospects near the first-round range on my draft board is his shooting. His intangibles, defense, and limited-but-effective offense are all NBA-caliber, which you can’t list for all players fighting for their spot in the 2024 NBA draft.
If Watson were to develop a jump shot from deep that was between this year’s average and last year’s (between 33.3% and 41.2%), he’d be a completely different player. A Watson that shoots is the exact type of player like Andre Iguodala or Aaron Gordon, who can change a team’s entire complexion due to his varied utility.
Until that day, Watson can hang his hat on his defense and selfless play on the court. He can already unlock many dimensions for a team, making him worth a permanent nickname for the skeleton key. If Anton Watson can unlock his game's last and most crucial element, he could develop into the type of player that every NBA team clamors for on their roster.
My favorite sleeper this year!
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