Bet on Nique Clifford
In the NBA Draft, you're always going to have to bet on something. Maxwell details why Nique Clifford's athleticism, skill set, and processing ability make him a worthy first round bet.
There’s been a theme to my writing recently. The NBA playoffs are in full swing. These games an incredibly helpful tool when it comes to, well, projecting guys who might be able to play in those games at some point. While it’s not exactly a groundbreaking realization, this year’s playoffs have served as a reminder of how ruthless teams can get from a strategic standpoint. Coaches and players are like sharks seeing blood in the water when they sniff out an opponent’s weakness. While it’s great for players to have signature skills that they can hang their hats on, it’s important to have multiple ways to win on the court.
Colorado State's Nique Clifford is one of the most well-rounded players in this class. There are a variety of ways in which he can impact the game, which prevents him from going quiet or dragging his team down. It’s not just that he’s good at a lot of things, but that he’s good at a lot of things critical to playing a role on a winning team. Even better, there’s an unorthodox nature to his game that makes his skill set difficult to replicate, inherently increasing his value.
Let’s dive into the nuts and bolts of Clifford’s game, his NBA translation, and why he’s a first-round pick on our consensus board. Additionally, you can check out an interview I did with Clifford here:
It was a fantastic interview, and he provided excellent insight not only into his game, but also his mindset and mentality.
On-Ball Defense
Normally, defense is the last thing I cover in my scouting reports. The reason for this is actually quite complex—it’s how I tend to organize my notes, and then when I write the column, I go in that same order. But today, defense comes first, because Nique Clifford’s defense is so exciting that I can’t wait to talk about it. First, we have to start with Clifford’s frame. He’s listed at 6’6” and 200 pounds. Even better, he plays much stronger than his numerical weight while still showcasing the lateral agility necessary to cover smaller players. This allows him to play exceptionally tight on opponents. He overpowers his foes while simultaneously displaying the movement skills that make him exceedingly difficult to shake.
Players of all different builds and styles found themselves trapped by Clifford’s smothering technique this past season. In the video above, you’ll see sharpshooter Jarod Lucas, downhill forward Cody Williams, pick-and-roll maestro Trey Alexander, and bruising wing Isaiah Crawford all stifled by Clifford. When he puts his body on guys, it often brings their attacks to a screeching halt. From there, Clifford doesn’t relent. He knows that the opponent has picked up their dribble, that they’re stuck, and that he sticks to them like white on rice. It leads to a lot of ugly forced shots and blocks, which is awesome. But even a more moderate outcome from this type of defense results in the opposing offense having to reset itself. When playing with the NBA’s shorter shot clock, these abrupt stops that Clifford generates will be even more valuable.
The playoffs have shown us how unrelenting mismatching hunting can become. Having a player like Nique Clifford on the floor makes that a little bit tougher. His power is good enough to give bigger wing players fits, and guards don’t have enough of a speed advantage over him to make him uncomfortable either. He’s one less target. Still, it can be hard to find lineups without a single exploitable target. And in an era where teams have improved their offensive spacing, it’s hard to throw all of the defensive rim protection responsibilities onto one player. DHO sets and five-out schemes are pulling big men out of the paint on a more consistent basis. Thankfully, when teammates get beat, Clifford is there to help.
A Helping Hand
Nique Clifford is one of the best help shot blockers and rim protectors among the wings in this class. His 3.2 BLK% is a strong mark given his size. On 48 rim attempts, opponents only scored against Clifford 43.8% of the time. The first thing that pops on the tape is how great of a job he does of reading plays from the weak side. His engagement as an off-ball defender is top of the line. It’s not just that he pays attention, but it’s that he understands how offenses flow and thus, where the opponent’s opportunities are going to come from. He has the tools to spring into position quickly and make plays. His bounce and strong chest help at the basket, as he can meet opponents above the rim, absorb their momentum, and stay vertical. He’s going to be able to come in and make those low-man rotations required of NBA wings on a consistent basis.
But there’s more to it than that. Clifford also swats shots as an off-ball defender in more unconventional areas of the court, like in floater range and around the free-throw line. During our interview, Clifford attributed this partially to his feel but more so to his film study and knowledge of the scouting report. Knowing opposing personnel enables him to decide when it makes sense to gamble. If he’s covering a knockdown shooter, he won’t abandon his assignment. But if he’s on a lesser shooter, or if he knows that a player is unlikely or incapable of making certain passes, then he’ll try to make a play on the ball. Clifford obviously has great physical tools, but the cerebral nature of his game shouldn’t go overlooked, either.
But how important is any of this, anyway? Shot blocking and rim protection from a non-anchor position? Are we getting too cute with it? I don’t think so. Take a look at opponent field goal percentages for NBA teams at the rim this past season. The top three teams were the Boston Celtics, the Oklahoma City Thunder, and the Denver Nuggets—the three winningest teams during the regular season. Particularly in the cases of Boston and Denver, having multiple shot blockers on the floor at all times was a key part of that. Guys like Aaron Gordon, Peyton Watson, and Derrick White provide an extra layer of rim protection behind whoever is on the floor at the five spot. Guys like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jrue Holiday punch above their height as shot blockers, too. And if you continue down the list of opponent field goal percentages at the rim, you’ll notice that nine of the top 10 teams at least made the play-in tournament. The same can be said for 13 of the top 15 teams in that metric. Stopping opponents at the rim is winning basketball, and the more guys who can help you do that, the better. That’s why this element of Clifford’s game shouldn’t just be taken into consideration, but legitimately valued.
Spotting Up
Outside of guys who get picked in the top five, NBA teams generally aren’t looking to force-feed the ball to rookies. If a player is going to get on the floor early, especially as a wing, they’re going to have to provide value as a spot-up player. Thankfully, Clifford was exceptional in that respect this season, ranking in Synergy’s 98th percentile as a spot-up scorer. It starts with his ability to knock down triples.
Clifford shot 37.8% from deep this season on 6.0 attempts per 100 possessions. A fair criticism of Clifford is that he’s not the most willing shooter, nor is he the most dynamic shooter. His release can take a little while to get off, and sometimes he passes up shots that I wish he took. Still, there are occasional pull-up and movement flashes. That stuff is going to have to come along in time for him to reach more optimal outcomes. But the bottom line is that right now, he’s a legitimately effective spot-up shooter. Clifford made 45.8% of his spot-up triples on 48 attempts this season. If that sample is too small for you, I get it, but he’s always been a reliable spot-up three-point shooter. Over his four college seasons, he has hit 41.6% of his spot-up threes. It might not be the sexiest shooting profile, but the bottom line is that Clifford can hit the easy ones from deep and opponents probably won’t be able to leave him wide open.
There’s a misconception about spot-up play, though. It’s not just standing there, catching, and shooting. There’s an art to attacking from a spot-up, too. This year, a lot of the wing and forward prospects really struggle with this element of the game. Some of them lack the explosion to get to the rim and have to settle for tough twos. A few don’t have the burst to create something for themselves, even in a straight line. Others don’t leap well enough or don’t have the strength to finish through contact once they get to the rim. A few simply lack touch at the basket. Nique Clifford isn’t one of those guys. He excels at attacking from a spot up.
Thankfully, we can quantify this data. Synergy’s spot-up scoring profiles track “spot-up twos,” which account for shots taken after spotting up, whether they come at the rim, in floater territory, or in the mid-range. Let’s see how Nique stacks up to the other prospects in the wing/forward group that joined him in the first round of our most recent consensus board. Of course, there’s a caveat here: several of the players below were on professional teams this past season. Still, it’s interesting data that gives us an idea of a player’s driving comfortability and efficacy.
First off, on a game-by-game basis, Clifford is one of the most prolific drivers in this class. Not only that, but he’s the most efficient by a considerable margin. Clifford isn’t just a great finisher—he’s an elite one, and he’s able to get to the basket by himself. He’s a good cutter, and he got to show that a lot in Colorado State’s free-flowing offense. But when people say, “this prospect is an effective cutter,” that’s like saying, “I got a free toy with my Happy Meal.” There are a lot of basketball players who can move off the ball and make open layups. Fewer of them can get to the rim with the ball in their hands and then finish. Cutting is objectively a good thing, but being able to get to the rack and convert is a more lucrative skill. The playoffs always show the value of attacking closeouts and tilted defenses, and Clifford is ready to do that right now. He made an astounding 70.5% of his halfcourt rim attempts this season. And as the numbers above show, oftentimes, he was the one who got himself there.
Clifford has a great sense of his defender’s momentum on closeouts, enabling him to find the best driving path to the basket. But even if it’s not a simple straight-line attack, Clifford has some wiggle and shiftiness to get inside. His use of shot fakes and pass fakes further aids him in creating advantages. He’s an excellent leaper off one foot, giving him the ability to take off from far away while minimizing the number of steps and dribbles he has to take on his way to the cup. Even when a rim protector gets in the way, it’s far from over for Clifford. His core strength enables him to rise through contact and keep his touch. It helps that he’s ambidextrous, too. He posted 32 dunks this season, 19 of which came in the halfcourt. Meeting Clifford mid-air might not only fail to stop him, but it might land the defender on a poster.
You Gotta Give!
We’ve now seen that Nique Clifford can score in an NBA functional way. But another key part of playing a role is that you’ve got to be able to move the ball. Using the NBA’s stats website, I looked at players under 6’7” who appeared in over 20 games and averaged over 20 MPG last season—122 players met those criteria, and not a single one had a negative assist-to-turnover ratio. If a prospect is going to play big minutes, they have to at least be on pace to figure out how to make good decisions a majority of the time. Even bigger players are tasked with more playmaking responsibility these days. The bar has never been higher for prospects, and it’s exceptionally difficult for shorter players to stick if they can only act as play finishers. If you want to hit a higher-end outcome, you can’t just receive…
Thankfully, Nique Clifford isn’t just a capable ball mover, but a real-deal playmaker from the wing spot.
There’s a level of creativity and deceptiveness to Clifford’s passing game. He’ll look off his feeds and deliver the ball at difficult-to-anticipate angles to further open up his target. He does a fantastic job of reacting to help. When a perimeter defender cheats to swipe at his handle, he’ll whip it right to the shooter that they abandoned. When a big rotates to the rim, he’s able to wrap the ball around them to give his center an easy bucket. He knows how to string out defenders with his handle to maximize openings. Clifford has also shown the ability to live dribble pass with both hands, and he’s extremely adept at doing it with his strong right hand. His ability to read the opposing defense, deliver the ball quickly in a variety of ways, and find more advanced openings make him stand out relative to his peers. Clifford’s 18.8 AST% and 3.0 APG to only 1.8 TOV illustrate just how effective he is as a creator for others.
Projection
When it comes to evaluating prospects, no one is going to hit every single time. But an easy way to avoid missing on a player is to ask yourself some really basic questions that help identify a player’s floor. Is their size a hindrance, given their skill set? Are they able to run and jump like an NBA player? Are they strong enough to play in an NBA game right now? Do they have the processing ability to play in an NBA game? How discernable are their weaknesses, and how important are those weaknesses relative to the prospect’s position? How valuable and unique are their strengths?
When I ask myself those questions about Nique Clifford, I feel really good about him. He’s got the size, athleticism, and strength to more than hold his own on an NBA floor. It’s evident in how he defends, rebounds, and finishes at a high level. He’s a quick processor of the game on both ends of the floor, enabling him to make plays and punish the mistakes of his opponent. His intellect and physical tools meet at a rare intersection, allowing him to make plays that simply aren’t on the table for others. He’s not a guy who will be easy to replicate if it all comes together.
The only discernable weakness for Clifford may be his shooting, given his inconsistency beyond the arc over the years and the fact that his attempt rate is lower. But if nothing else, I buy the shot as workable. He made 41.5% of his catch-and-shoot threes, including 42.9% of his unguarded attempts. I’m confident that he can get to a “well you can’t just leave him open” point in pretty short order, if he isn’t there already. Once you can’t leave him open, he’s a nightmare attacking closeouts. He’s an elite finisher and creative, reliable passer who reads the floor better than most others in his position group. Defensively, he can guard up and down the line-up on the ball. Off-ball, he’s an electric playmaker with a high level of feel. What’s not to like?
Coming out of this exercise, I find myself even higher on Clifford than before, and I already had him as a Top 30 prospect in this class. He’s got a playoff guy body, a playoff guy brain, and a playoff guy skill set. Do things come a little undone if the shot isn’t there? Sure. But if as I like to say, in the NBA Draft, you’re always betting on something. If I’m going to bet on a guy to shoot, taking that chance on someone who hit 41.5% of their catch-and-shoot looks and already does everything else feels like a bet that’s very much in my favor. I’m more than happy to bet on Nique Clifford, who has all the makings of a future playoff contributor.