Heavy Hitters. Depth Pieces. The 2026 NBA Draft class has it all, and Caleb Wilson seems to be the dividing line between the top tiers in this class. Stephen Gillaspie breaks down Wilson's game.
I will admit that he is better offensively, but here are some things that give me confidence in his projection on that end of the floor.
Among Freshmen with a Minutes Percentage of at least 60, Caleb is 8th in Block Percentage with 4.5. No one ahead of him is projected as a First Round pick. His ranking is above Hannes Steinbach (3.3), Amari Allen (3.0), Chris Cenac Jr. (2.6), Koa Peat (2.5), Cam Boozer (2.2), Nate Ament (1.6), and AJ Dybantsa (1.4).
Using that same Minutes Percentage, Caleb ranks 17th in Steal Percentage with 2.9. This ranks behind Kingston Flemings (3.6), Tounde Yessoufou (3.3), Cam Boozer (3.1), and Brayden Burries (3.0) among top picks. This is ahead of Nate Ament (2.3), AJ Dybantsa (2.2), Amari Allen (2.1), Koa Peat (1.6), Keaton Wagler (1.4), and Darius Acuff Jr. (1.3).
Same Percentage, he is 3rd in Defensive Rebounding Parentage with 22.2. He's behind only Chris Cenac Jr. (26.8) and Hannes Steinbach (23.7). He's ahead of Cam Boozer (21.5), Amari Allen (18.8), Nate Ament (17.4), AJ Dybantsa (16.5), Brayden Burries (14.1), and Koa Peat (13.2)--stopping there.
Sure, he may not be as fast as processing defensively as on the offensive end, but he is doing pretty good for someone who has room to get better.
He has good tools and I agree the steal % and block % are encouraging. I’ve watched every possession though, his technique is bad switching out onto the perimeter (never in a stance) but worst of all is his feel x-ing out and tagging in 1 on 2s . like laughably bad. Also loses focus regularly off the ball and is late on close outs. UNC is a bad defensive team and a lot of it is because of him.
I do get where you're coming from here. To respectfully give a little pushback, it feels like you're being a little exaggerated with the definitive speech--but, again, I get where you're coming from. There are some concerns with him on defense, to the points that you have made. But I feel like you can discuss genuine defensive concerns with Cam, AJ, and DP too.
I'm glad you bring up the tools, because that makes a big difference at the next level (I'm sure I'm not telling you something you don't already know). What gives me confidence in the projection with Caleb is the person. He plays hard, is an awesome teammate, and is coachable. The use of hands and coordination at his size is just so hard to find--adding that on top of the effort and ethic is what puts me over the top with him.
I wasn't a big Caleb guy coming into the season. I guess I'm just a sucker for big dudes that play hard and offer the sort of versatility that Caleb does. A player like him has pathways to work for every single team.
Great breakdown on the shooting and finishing context. The historical comps to Embiid, Mobley, and Sabonis really reframe the 25% three-point rate, especially when combined with the long two confidence and touch shots shown. What jumped out to me was the ATO ratio being #1 in that comp group, I don't usually associate high-level decision making with raw athletes but clearly Wilson processes fast on both ends. Reminds me alot of guys who develop into versatile defenders faster than expected.
outlier(top 1%) athleticism is so valuable and will help cover up flaws. Has an elite motor and plus feel as well. He generates a TON of stocks and draws LOTS of fouls
His FT rate and midrange aren't terrible, which indicate potential shooting
His ceiling is better than Boozer depending on how everything develops
Two way play is key to me and he seems like a huge positive on both ends.
Peterson- 3 and D has been great but seems to disappoint as a playmaker. See him as a Desmond Bane/Ray Allen esque third option(great player, just not as great as people think)
Dybantsa- AWESOME rim scoring, midrange, footwork, solid passing, but VERY worried about team fit and defense.
his jumper from 3 isn’t good and he doesn’t take a lot of them and his stock rates vs good competition are TERRIBLE.
VERY worried about his effort/BBIQ.
reminds me of a better, more athletic Brandon Ingram(good stats, bad team kinda guy)
Yes, Boozer is my top guy. No need to overthink it.
He processes fast on the offensive end.
Not on the defensive end.
I will admit that he is better offensively, but here are some things that give me confidence in his projection on that end of the floor.
Among Freshmen with a Minutes Percentage of at least 60, Caleb is 8th in Block Percentage with 4.5. No one ahead of him is projected as a First Round pick. His ranking is above Hannes Steinbach (3.3), Amari Allen (3.0), Chris Cenac Jr. (2.6), Koa Peat (2.5), Cam Boozer (2.2), Nate Ament (1.6), and AJ Dybantsa (1.4).
Using that same Minutes Percentage, Caleb ranks 17th in Steal Percentage with 2.9. This ranks behind Kingston Flemings (3.6), Tounde Yessoufou (3.3), Cam Boozer (3.1), and Brayden Burries (3.0) among top picks. This is ahead of Nate Ament (2.3), AJ Dybantsa (2.2), Amari Allen (2.1), Koa Peat (1.6), Keaton Wagler (1.4), and Darius Acuff Jr. (1.3).
Same Percentage, he is 3rd in Defensive Rebounding Parentage with 22.2. He's behind only Chris Cenac Jr. (26.8) and Hannes Steinbach (23.7). He's ahead of Cam Boozer (21.5), Amari Allen (18.8), Nate Ament (17.4), AJ Dybantsa (16.5), Brayden Burries (14.1), and Koa Peat (13.2)--stopping there.
Sure, he may not be as fast as processing defensively as on the offensive end, but he is doing pretty good for someone who has room to get better.
He has good tools and I agree the steal % and block % are encouraging. I’ve watched every possession though, his technique is bad switching out onto the perimeter (never in a stance) but worst of all is his feel x-ing out and tagging in 1 on 2s . like laughably bad. Also loses focus regularly off the ball and is late on close outs. UNC is a bad defensive team and a lot of it is because of him.
I do get where you're coming from here. To respectfully give a little pushback, it feels like you're being a little exaggerated with the definitive speech--but, again, I get where you're coming from. There are some concerns with him on defense, to the points that you have made. But I feel like you can discuss genuine defensive concerns with Cam, AJ, and DP too.
I'm glad you bring up the tools, because that makes a big difference at the next level (I'm sure I'm not telling you something you don't already know). What gives me confidence in the projection with Caleb is the person. He plays hard, is an awesome teammate, and is coachable. The use of hands and coordination at his size is just so hard to find--adding that on top of the effort and ethic is what puts me over the top with him.
I wasn't a big Caleb guy coming into the season. I guess I'm just a sucker for big dudes that play hard and offer the sort of versatility that Caleb does. A player like him has pathways to work for every single team.
Great breakdown on the shooting and finishing context. The historical comps to Embiid, Mobley, and Sabonis really reframe the 25% three-point rate, especially when combined with the long two confidence and touch shots shown. What jumped out to me was the ATO ratio being #1 in that comp group, I don't usually associate high-level decision making with raw athletes but clearly Wilson processes fast on both ends. Reminds me alot of guys who develop into versatile defenders faster than expected.
I’m glad that’s what you took away because that’s exactly what I was trying to convey !
I have him Top 3
im a huge believer in his game
I have him higher than Peterson and Dybantsa
outlier(top 1%) athleticism is so valuable and will help cover up flaws. Has an elite motor and plus feel as well. He generates a TON of stocks and draws LOTS of fouls
His FT rate and midrange aren't terrible, which indicate potential shooting
His ceiling is better than Boozer depending on how everything develops
Two way play is key to me and he seems like a huge positive on both ends.
I agree in a lot of areas. Loved your comment on his elite motor. It’s my favorite part of his game
thank you
Peterson- 3 and D has been great but seems to disappoint as a playmaker. See him as a Desmond Bane/Ray Allen esque third option(great player, just not as great as people think)
Dybantsa- AWESOME rim scoring, midrange, footwork, solid passing, but VERY worried about team fit and defense.
his jumper from 3 isn’t good and he doesn’t take a lot of them and his stock rates vs good competition are TERRIBLE.
VERY worried about his effort/BBIQ.
reminds me of a better, more athletic Brandon Ingram(good stats, bad team kinda guy)
Yes, Boozer is my top guy. No need to overthink it.