Carey Booth and the Art of the Comeback | The Prospect Overview
Colorado State's Carey Booth took his lumps at Illinois. But now the 6'10" junior's breakout campaign raises questions as to whether he'll be the next bounce-back success story in the NBA Draft world.
6’10” Colorado State junior Carey Booth was once Notre Dame freshman Carey Booth. There, he emerged onto NBA Draft radars. The Fighting Irish weren’t good that season, going 13-20 on the year and finishing 12th in the ACC. But Booth was a bright spot. At 6’10”, his funky offensive style and athleticism was eye catching. His ability to weave through traffic, fly off the floor, and make highlight plays on both ends of the floor inspired hope for what was to come in his basketball career.
Colorado State junior Carey Booth was once Illinois sophomore Carey Booth. He departed from the Fighting Irish after his first college season. He joined an Illini squad that was overflowing with talent. There were future first-round picks in Kasparas Jakucionis and Will Riley, proven college producers like Kylan Boswell, Tre White, and Ben Humrichous, glue guys like Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn and Jake Davis, and a fantastic inside-out big man duo consisting of Tomislav Ivisic and Morez Johnson Jr. Unfortunately for Booth, he was the odd man out. He couldn’t handle like Jakucioins, Riley, or Boswell. He couldn’t lock down wings like Tre White. He couldn’t stretch the floor from the big man spots like Humrichous or Ivisic, nor was he the hard-charging finisher that Johnson was. There’s an argument to be made that perhaps Booth could’ve been more impactful than Gibbs-Lawhorn and/or Davis, and that the Illini may have benefited from experimenting with those types of jumbo lineups. We’ll never know, though. At the end of the day, he didn’t end up supplanting anyone in the rotation. Booth played only 108 minutes on the season, less than 1/6th of the time he spent on the floor at Notre Dame.
But there’s always time for a comeback. Just ask Quentin Grimes. He entered college basketball with mammoth expectations, and he didn’t meet them during his first season at Kansas. At the end of the season, he transferred to Houston. Two vital pieces of context are required here. First, transfers…didn’t happen very often, even six years ago. This was a pretty wild, unconventional decision at the time. The second is that Houston then wasn’t what Houston is now. Kelvin Sampson was already a few years into his incredible program turnaround, but they were still a team in a mid-major conference that had just made its first tournament appearance in eight years. Switching schools was considered unorthodox, and Houston was far from a powerhouse program. His stock took a hard hit. But then, Grimes reinvented himself. He transformed his game, turning himself from an inconsistent combo guard into a legitimate three-and-D wing. As a result, he ended up being a first-round pick after his junior season, and now, he’s a damn good NBA player.
I’m not saying that Carey Booth is going to be the hybrid big man version of Quentin Grimes. But what I am saying is that we shouldn’t be so quick to “be done” with prospects, especially in the current transfer portal era. And considering that Booth has been off to a hot start at Colorado State, I thought it would be a fun experiment to dive into the film, see where he stands, and what he can do to get back into the mix. Before we go any further, though, give your boy a follow!
Scoring
The area where I’ve been most impressed with Carey Booth has been his shooting. During his first two college seasons, Booth went 28.7% from long range and made only 62.2% of his free throws. This year, Booth has drilled 46.4% of his threes and sunk 83.6% of his free throws. While we are still dealing with a very small sample from three, Booth has already taken more free throws this season than throughout the rest of his college career. As a result, the touch indicators are quite encouraging. The same can be said of the tape. Let’s get it straight—Booth isn’t a very dynamic shooter right now. Most of his attempts come from a standstill. It’s important to keep that in mind, as it’s another sign that likely points to some regression coming in the near future. Still, I like what I’m seeing. He’s an assertive shooter who gets the ball out of his hands quickly. Booth doesn’t have the highest release or the prettiest motion, but his mechanics are consistent from attempt to attempt, and it doesn’t take him long to get it off. Is he going to shoot in the mid-40s all year? Probably not. But I wouldn’t rule out that Carey Booth has legitimately improved to the point that he’s a reliable spot-up target, which is tough to find at his volume (career 9.9 attempts per 100 possessions) and height.
Booth’s interior scoring game is intriguing, too. He does all the stuff you’d expect a 6’10”, athletic college player to do. He can rim run in transition, feast off of put-backs, and finish lobs with authority. There are two flourishes I quite like, though. The first is that Booth is a good cutter. I feel like we can be too generous with the “good cutter” label at times. It gets thrown onto prospects like a free toy with a Happy Meal, especially when it comes to athletic guys who can’t shoot. But I believe Carey Booth is genuinely a good cutter. He’s not just feasting on scripted actions or finding himself in the right place at the right time on occasion. He knows when and where to do it. Per Synergy, he ranks in the 67th percentile in cutting frequency and the 88th percentile in cutting efficiency. If his teammate is driving through the elbow and he’s on the weakside, he’ll look to cut baseline depending on where his man positions themselves. Conversely, when a teammate is on the low block near the baseline, he knows he might have a prime opportunity to score off a 45-cut from the weakside of the floor. There’s an art to cutting, and Booth understands it, which is why he’s able to cut so often and so successfully.
The next thing I want to touch on is his funky attacking game. Booth is a good mover for his size. As a result, he can use that quickness to get from the perimeter to the rim quickly. But what distinguishes Booth is his ability to use his footwork downhill. He’s got some slippery Eurosteps in his bag, making him the rare 6’10” guy who can make opponents miss when he drives to the cup. And when Booth can’t win with his touch or his finesse, he’s more than content to play through his opponent. As a result, he’s registered a .733 FTr so far this season. When you make over 80% of your free throws, the ability to draw fouls is quite valuable. There’s a chance for Booth to be a true multi-level scorer, which, at his size, is exciting.
Playmaking
In our current era, the ability to dribble and make decisions is paramount across the positional spectrum. For that reason, even a 6’10” prospect’s playmaking acumen is worth examining. Booth is currently a mixed bag on this front. As I mentioned in the previous section, he does have an effective, unorthodox attacking game, which helps him get to the rim and the free-throw line. Still, he’s not without his limitations. There are three main issues with his on-ball creation right now, and they dovetail together. Booth is upright with his dribble, he can get high and loose with his handle, and he only weighs 215 pounds. Defenders both on and off the ball can get into his dribble due to his technical shortcomings. From a physical standpoint, he’s easy to bump off his line, an issue that’ll only be exacerbated at the next level. For those reasons, both skill refinement and physical development will be important.
That said, he’s not a bad decision-maker. At the very least, Booth can execute on scripted actions well. I saw him hit Josh Pascarelli right on the money as he came off the same off-ball screen action at least once in every game I’ve seen from Booth this year. There’s a little bit more than just the absolute basics, though. Booth has shown that he can make clever decisions to maximize opportunities for teammates in transition and reward them when they exploit spontaneous openings in the defense. Given that he’s a junior at a mid-major with a 20.3 USG% and a 7.3 AST%, it’s unlikely that Carey Booth will ever develop into an offensive hub at the next level. But his 1.0 APG to 0.9 TOV shows that he at least knows how to keep things under control, and that he’ll make the right decision more often than not. When you factor in some of his dribble game, I think it’s reasonable to be optimistic about Booth from a skill perspective.
Defense
Carey Booth’s defense has its ups and downs. At times, he’ll be downright frustrating. He can be lackadaisical off the ball and overly conservative in his approach. Foul aversion is good, but when a player only fouls 1.2 times per 100 possessions, I’m not sure how good it is. I think it can point to a lack of physicality and either an unwillingness or inability to make plays off the ball. Booth will often play too close to his man off the ball, which can lead to him being late to rotations around the basket. At the point of attack, he’s too comfortable to play deep off his man. In the clip above, we see Bangot Dak eat up the ground that Booth ceded before finishing over him with a hook shot. Prior to that, you’ll see some of the off-ball positioning issues I’d mentioned. Later that same game, which you’ll also see in the video above, Booth got put on the bench for a while after he let Dak beat him down the floor and pin him in transition before collecting an easy bucket. There’s not one single issue here. Some of his shortcomings are technical, some physical, and some are tied to aggressiveness and motor.
It’s far from hopeless, though. Booth is super light on his feet. There are times when he does a great job of using his agility, length, and timing to take away good options for ball-handlers in pick-and-roll settings. He gets off the floor super easily for blocks. Booth also loves to fly in for defensive rebounds (25.1 DRB%). My favorite ability is his knack for digs. Booth can use his long arms to quickly swipe the ball from drivers while helping from the perimeter, leading to steals and pick-six opportunities. He can cover ground in a hurry and deliver potent closeouts. When guarding the ball, he’s tough to get around. Even when he’s not in a textbook stance, he’s still quick and long enough to stay in front of the ball and prevent smaller opponents from getting to their spots. Booth has work to do, no question. But his set of tools gives him both a way to stay afloat and a path to meaningful improvement.
Conclusion
I love writing for this website. Sometimes I can do a column on a consensus first-round pick like Patrick Ngongba II or Thomas Haugh because we know there’s a sizable demand for that type of content. Other times, I can say, “hey everybody, Carey Booth is doing some interesting stuff this year, let’s dive into that.”
I also love writing here because no one is going to make me say a bunch of splashy nonsense. If you came here expecting some giant proclamation that Carey Booth is putting together the most underrated season in the country and he’ll be a first-round pick in the 2026 NBA Draft, you’ve come to the wrong place. I’m not a “hot takes to get clicks” guy, and we aren’t that kind of site. Booth might simply be a guy who wasn’t good enough to claim a rotation spot at Illinois but is too big and athletic to be contained by mid-major opponents. As a result, skepticism about him eventually displacing someone from an NBA rotation is only healthy.
Still, I do think Carey Booth warrants a degree of monitoring going forward as a potential 2027 name. This article was largely inspired by, obviously, Carey Booth putting together a good bounce-back campaign. But the other reason I wanted to dive into Booth specifically was the type of stretches Noah Clowney has managed to put together for the Nets this season, particularly this month. Clowney didn’t have one go-to, bankable skill coming into the NBA. But he was tall, he could really move, and he had some solid touch indicators. The same can be said for Carey Booth. Heck, it’s too early to even shut the book on Noah Clowney as a serious, high-level NBA success story. Maybe he’s just enjoying the fruits of a hot streak. But I do think there’s something to athletic tall guys who play hard and have enough ball skills.
Perhaps I’m being too generous. Maybe that type of game tops out at “innings eater” capacity and doesn’t go any further. But even then, it’s pretty cool that we’re talking about Carey Booth in that potential context, right? One year ago, he was riding the pine for Illinois, out of sight and out of mind. But in the transfer portal era, it feels like there’s always time for a comeback. If nothing else, Booth has done a tremendous job of taking advantage of the opportunity he’s been given at Colorado State. But as we’ve learned from Quinten Grimes, a “transfer down” doesn’t mean the NBA door is closed. Heck, look no further than former Illinois player Brandin Podziemski. His move to Santa Clara wasn’t as high-profile as the one Grimes made, but he found the right situation for himself, and he capitalized on it. Ultimately, Booth is productive (8.2 BPM), young for his class (he doesn’t turn 21 until July!), can really move, has positive touch indicators, and has some intriguing ball skills. In my opinion, that gives him a real chance to be the next in what will continue to be a long line of transfer success stories after meeting a road bump.
Quick Hits
-I checked in on Karim Lopez, who has been putting together a fantastic statistical season for the New Zealand Breakers in the NBL. The 6’8” 18-year-old has a good on-ball arsenal. He’s a confident ball-handler who has some counter moves downhill and knows how to use his defender’s momentum against them. He’s also a heads-up passer, active offensive rebounder, and reliable defensive event creator (2.2 STL%, 3.6 BLK%). I do have some holdups. While Lopez is sitting at 38.3% from three and 80% from the free throw line, he has an odd release where he moves his wrist to the side after letting go of the ball. Defensively, his stance is inconsistent both inside and on the perimeter. Off the ball, he can be a second late to rim rotations. There may be more to iron out than the numbers indicate. Ultimately, though, it’s dangerous to let a player like Lopez slip too far down the board. There aren’t many players with his size and talent, and the fact that he’s producing in a league that’s caused many prospects to struggle is extremely encouraging. I’m intrigued to see where his shot settles and if he can refine his defense a little bit.
-Vanderbilt guard Tyler Tanner has been a buzzy sleeper name. He’s gone 43.1% from long range on the year, showcasing the ability to pull up when needed and also demonstrating a fast, no-dip motion off the catch. He’s also an excellent playmaker who can pick up the low-hanging fruit the defense gives him or make incredible finds that he capitalizes on with creative, well-executed deliveries. He’s not afraid of contact inside and has some bounce. Defensively, he’s a speedy off-ball defender with sharp help instincts (4.6 STL%, 3.0 BLK%). He likes to apply heavy pressure at the point of attack, his hands are ridiculously fast, and he does an excellent job of getting skinny around screens to stay in front. Still, I have serious concerns. At a listed 6’0” and 175 pounds, he has a frame that, to be frank, you don’t see in the NBA too often. He gets bumped easily on defense, and his lack of length makes it hard for him to contain the ball at times. I’m really intrigued to see how his production holds up throughout SEC play, where the athleticism and physicality threshold will be much higher than most of the teams he’s faced thus far. Still, I dig the sophomore as a bet to figure something out in the NBA eventually. He’s super fast and super smart. Maybe it’s more of a Craig Porter bench-producer type thing, but that’s still a great player to have.
-Brayden Burries has been red hot lately. The 6’4” guard from Arizona has started to stockpile 20-point outbursts. He’s a great on-ball scorer with super soft pull-up touch and the ability to contort and convert at the rim. Defensively, he has a great sense for when to jump passing lanes and dig on the ball (3.2 STL%). My hangup with Burries is where he’ll slot positionally. He’s inconsistent with the guard stuff. He’ll occasionally throw an awesome pass on the move, but he’s also prone to stopping the ball and hesitating once he first receives a pass. Burries has an awesome frame. I like his ability to get buckets, and his off-ball playmaking on defense is valuable. But in order for me to really buy into him as a one-and-done prospect, I’ll want to see more consistency as a passer and snap decision-maker.
-JT Toppin remains a confusing evaluation for me. The Texas Tech junior is built more like a lengthy wing than a big, but he’s a subpar shooter and inconsistent decision maker. He’ll often grind the offense to a halt, force a back-down, and then rush up a contested hook shot. It can be frustrating. But he’s also a relentless offensive rebounder who consistently generates high-efficiency second-chance looks. When he’s on the court, every rebound will be a contested rebound. Defensively, he’s got top-of-the-line lateral agility and can guard smaller players with serious aggressiveness. If I felt better about either his floor vision or the jumper, I’d be all in. But as it stands, I have a bit of trouble seeing what his offensive role in the NBA would look like. Still, he’s the type of player I’m horrified to bet against, because he’s always making things happen. I’m hoping that either the shooting or passing falls into place so I can just confidently say, “Yep, he’s going to be good.”
-It was great to see Adrian Wooley ball out against Tennessee. The 6’4” sophomore had a rocky start, but as I’d said in my preseason column on him, I’d still love him as a long-term “buy low” even if he had a “down year.” Wooley’s had some rough outings, but his game against Tennessee displayed the vision. He has a variety of ways to create advantages. He can turn on the jets to dust slower players or use his shiftiness to generate space. Wooley also felt more poised around the rim than he did in earlier-season outings against good opponents. Defensively, he will fight around off-ball screens and use his chest to wall up opponents. There were still some shaky dribble pickups, and we’ll need to see him find consistency against high-major opposition. But Tuesday night’s game was a great reminder to all those aboard The Wooley Wagon to not sell their stock.
-South Florida's Izaiyah Nelson had an awesome game against Alabama on Wednesday. The 6’10” big man is a great athlete. He’s fast down the floor in transition, he gets off the floor well, and he’s got good foot speed. Offensively, he owns the offensive glass (16.5 ORB%), and he’s a phenomenal lob target thanks to his soft hands and bounce. Defensively, he does a nice job of playing cat-and-mouse in drop coverage. He blocks a ton of shots (8.1 BLK%) and is capable of darting into passing lanes on the perimeter. His playmaking (7.1 AST%, 0.9 APG to 1.5 TOV) remains a work in progress, and he’s not that powerful (listed at 218 pounds). Still, his ability to get up and down the floor both ways, patrol the glass, protect the rim, and finish plays means he’s going to be a guy teams take a look at come pre-draft time. He’s worth a watch.
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