Consider that Hunter Sallis is Good | The Prospect Overview
Maxwell examines what Wake Forest's Hunter Sallis brings to the table and how it projects to the NBA! Plus, Quick Hits from the NCAA's postseason tournaments!
Feature: Consider that Hunter Sallis is Good
Background
Hunter Sallis was supposed to be here. The Omaha, Nebraska native was a highly touted recruit coming out of high school. He accrued all the big prep star accolades—Gatorade Player of the Year in his home state, a five-star label from ESPN, and a selection to the McDonald’s All-American Game. Sallis ranked 15th in the high school class of 2021 using the RSCI metric. Given his pedigree, it was no surprise that he received offers from the likes of UCLA, North Carolina, Kentucky, Kansas, and the school he would eventually commit to, Gonzaga.
Unfortunately, college basketball is different than prep basketball, and the recruiting rankings get thrown out the window once a player steps onto an actual basketball court. Hunter Sallis wasn’t bad during his first season at Gonzaga. He brought energy on defense and finished plays effectively in transition. Still, he didn’t meet expectations. Sallis only played 13.6 MPG, the fourth least among RSCI Top 20 recruits. Given that he stands 6’5”, his shooting was downright concerning, as he converted a measly 26.3% of his threes. Even more concerning was Sallis’s hesitance from long range, as he took only 19 triples in 32 games. He had more turnovers than assists, raising questions about his on-ball equity.
Scaling up in competition can be difficult. Sometimes, guys take a year to settle in. With Chet Holmgren and Andrew Nembhard off to the NBA, there would be more of the basketball to go around during Sallis’s sophomore season, giving hope that a breakout campaign might be in store for the Nebraska native. Unfortunately, it wasn’t meant to be. There were some positives—his minutes did increase a little bit and he made better decisions with the ball. He also took threes more often. Still, he connected on only 25.6% of his threes, and he was still a low-volume shooter for a shooting guard. Defensively, he was good, but there’s only so much value a skinny, 6’5” player can bring on that side of the ball. Sallis was merely a guy the Zags could throw out to tread water. He wasn’t a needle mover.
The Move
It was supposed to be over. Hunter Sallis was supposed to be the next Marcus Lee, Derryck Thornton, or Chase Jeter—one of those guys you see on old RSCI lists and think, “I’m not sure I remember that guy.” When he entered the transfer portal and committed to Wake Forest, I didn’t think much of it. Sure, he’d provide a nice spark of athleticism and defense to their backcourt rotation. But typically, guys who are going to be serious NBA prospects start to show real signs of it prior to their junior year. The exceptions tend to be the late-bloomer types, ala Jalen Williams or Dalton Knecht. If anything, it appeared Sallis was a classic, “peaked too soon” prospect who simply wasn’t going to be more than a solid, high-major basketball player. There are many worse fates in life, but past expectations need to be pushed to the side.
After all of that, Hunter Sallis wasn’t supposed to be here. But now he is. He’s had an outrageous breakout season for the Demon Deacons. The dude who once provided little offensive value in the West Coast Conference? He’s gone. In his place is an efficient 18.1 PPG scorer who earned an All-ACC First Team Selection. One year ago, it would have been outlandish to put Hunter Sallis on a 2024 Mock Draft. Now, it’s far more probable than not that he’ll hear his name called on draft night in June. Today, we’re going to dive into what Hunter Sallis does well, where he brings value, and how he projects to perform at the NBA level.
Plug-And-Play Scoring
Most prospects don’t project to be the best player on an NBA team someday. For that reason, I like to look at what I call “scoring functionality.” Simply put, does a prospect score in ways that will be conducive to them carving out an NBA role? There are plenty of great college scorers who simply don’t pan out at the next level. Maybe it’s because they’re a volume shooter who likes to dribble the air out of the ball, or they’re a back-to-the-basket big man who needs to be fed the ball in the post. If you aren’t a star, typically, NBA teams aren’t eager to give young players those types of possessions. What most players are asked to do is relatively boring—catch and shoot, drive, or get off the ball in a hurry. Something I love about Hunter Sallis is that his scoring profile can functionally plug into any NBA offense. Per Synergy, his most common play type is spot-ups. He’s great at them, too, ranking in the 83rd percentile in college hoops on those possessions.
Sallis is so good on spot-ups because he’s effective as both a shooter and a driver. After being both tentative and inefficient as a three-point shooter in the past, Sallis turned a massive corner this season. He’s hitting 40.5% of his triples on 8.9 attempts per 100 possessions this year. He’s great off the catch, able to get his shot off quickly and effectively over closeouts. He doesn’t need to hug the three-point line to connect, either. Sallis also identifies holes in the defense and will subtly relocate to get himself a cleaner look. His success in transition (42.9% on transition threes) and off-ball speed also bode well for potential growth as a movement shooter.
Good shooters tend to get chased off the line, and Sallis can respond to that comfortably. He’s quick with his first step. Sallis also has a knack for recognizing the angle of the closeout. When a defender comes flying at Sallis from his left, he’ll go at them in that direction to get them off balance, for example. Other times, he’ll simply take the clear driving path when he knows his man won’t be able to recover. This is a great skill in general, but it’s aided by Sallis’s ambidexterity as a driver. Whether he’s going left or right doesn’t make much of a difference to him. He takes big, long strides to the cup, he has real bounce off one foot, and soft touch at the basket. His 60.5% on halfcourt rim attempts is a great mark for a smaller wing prospect.
A Little Extra
Here’s the thing—while most NBA roles are more simplified, it’s inevitable that players will be asked to do a little bit extra. This is especially true as players earn more minutes, receive more attention in scouting reports, and get on the floor during a playoff series. “Catch, shoot, drive, or dish” is the baseline, but there’s more nuance than that. While threes and layups are ideal, sometimes you need to take a mid-range shot due to the shot clock. Not all passes are going to be of the “next one” skip variety. The good news for Sallis is that he’s proven that he can do “a little extra.”
The first thing worth noting here is that Sallis is a legitimate tough shot maker. Will that be what his NBA team asks him to do on day one? No. But sometimes, over the course of an NBA game, guys will have to take tough shots. Sallis has real juice as a pull-up scorer. He’s converted 38.1% of his pull-up threes and 50.5% of his pull-up twos this year, both fantastic numbers. Sallis does a tremendous job of slamming on the breaks and changing direction to generate separation. From there, he elevates well and boasts a high release, maximizing every inch of length he has at his disposal. He can do the basics, but he’s got a bag, too.
While he’s not the most advanced passer, Sallis should be able to run ball screens effectively, too. He ranks in the 92nd percentile on pick-and-roll possessions including passes, per Synergy. His pull-up scoring and finishing package make him a threat at all three levels, and he can do the simple things well as a passer. He has good timing with simple pocket passes against more aggressive coverages. His best skill is that when he goes downhill, he reads low man really well. Sallis will use this sense to determine when it’s best to go for his own finish or make a last-second dump-off dish to his big man. It’s not the most mesmerizing or complex game, but it’s a solid foundation to build on.
I think what’s most encouraging about this element of Sallis’s game is how well it came along throughout the season. Yeah, he was scorching the nets from deep early in the year, but his game felt almost robotic. Everything was straight line and simple. But as we got deeper into the calendar, Sallis showed off more counters as a ball handler and better vision as a passer. During his 11 non-conference games, Sallis posted 2.2 APG to 1.9 TOV. After that, he posted 2.8 APG to 1.8 TOV during ACC play. As the schedule got tougher, Sallis’s growth managed to outpace the challenges in front of him. That’s a trajectory worth getting excited about.
Defense
Defense is where Hunter Sallis hung his hat during his time at Gonzaga. He’s nimble laterally and slides his feet well. His off-ball speed helps him eat up ground fast and he maintains his balance well against directional changes. He moves his hands fast, which helps him get into the handle of opposing ball handlers. Sallis also gets up high and with exceptional ease. His 1.7 BLK% is a nice number for someone his size, and it’s a testament to how well he moves and recovers.
Still, I’m not in love with Sallis on this end, and I worry about what he’ll look like at the next level. I mentioned his recovery skills in that last paragraph. While it’s good that he has them, it’s discouraging that he has to put them to use as often as he does. Both on and off the ball, he can be a hair slow when it comes to reaction times. He zones in and out, leading to him being behind the play more often than you’d like.
This becomes even more concerning when we get to Sallis’s physical profile. Listed at 185 pounds, Sallis is on the slender side for a wing. That makes him lighter than fellow potential 2024 draftees Reed Sheppard and Tyler Kolek. Weight-wise, he’s much closer to point guards than small forwards. When he gets to the NBA, he’ll be a bit more limited than his bulkier shooting guard counterparts when it comes to guarding up the lineup, as he’ll simply be easier to move and drive through. He’s struggled against ball screens at the college level due to his frame, and that issue will only be exacerbated against bigger opponents. For that reason, improving his engagement and reaction time while gaining strength will be critical for him. Additionally, Sallis’ wingspan and standing reach measurements will carry extra weight for his stock. Every inch of length counts, especially when it can be used as an additional tool to compensate for a player’s stature.
Projection
My biggest fear for Hunter Sallis is that he’s a “Not Quite Wing.” As I noted in my recent article about positional size, this particular archetype of player has led to a lot of draft night misses recently. Players under 6’6” without sturdy frames who struggle to create for others, don’t project to guard as many positions, and don’t rebound well can be a scary proposition. For that type of player to hit, the scoring really has to be there. In Sallis’ case, it might be. And there is no shortage of players in the league who profile similarly to him.
The idealized version of Sallis would look something like Malik Monk. His athleticism and three-point scoring were enough to get him on an NBA floor. As he adjusted to the speed of the NBA game, things slowed down for him as a decision-maker. Now, in year seven, Monk can still fill it up in an off-ball role, but he can also punish defenses on a consistent basis with his passing. That should be the goal for Sallis—bring the gravity and athleticism early, then figure out how to leverage that gravity to elevate those around him in time.
A more modest outcome could look something like Keon Ellis. His spot-up and transition shooting, speed, and downhill bounce profile similarly. While Ellis was a more productive college defender, he was even skinnier than Sallis coming out. Additionally, Sallis is going to enter the league with more creation skills, both for himself and others. It’s not a perfect one-to-one comparison, but that’s the type of role Sallis could fill.
On one hand, it’s fair to be concerned about Sallis’s role and archetype. Teams would be more partial to him if he was 6’8” and 220 pounds instead of 6’5”, 185. But consider this: Hunter Sallis is good. At a certain point, what makes the most sense for a drafting team is to simply take the guy who is good at basketball over the idea of an archetype. Looking at the draft order, a lot of teams in that 20-40 range should think hard about Sallis. He could bring a shooting punch to Orlando, San Antonio, or Minnesota. His off-ball skill set would work wonders alongside a Nikola Jokic in Denver or a Tyrese Haliburton in Indiana.
It’s been a winding journey. Hunter Sallis was supposed to be here, and then he wasn’t, and now he is. He’s going to enter the league on a rapid upward trajectory with a plug-and-play offensive skill set and positive athletic traits. Sure, it would be great if Sallis were bigger. But getting hung up on that may be foolish. The bottom line is that Hunter Sallis is good, and that needs to be taken into consideration on draft night.
Latest Draft Sickos
Quick Hits
-Iowa junior Payton Sandfort had an excellent NIT performance that slid under the radar. He dropped 30 points on 14 shots, going 7-11 from three against Kansas State. He added 12 rebounds, too. A 38.7% shooter from deep on high volume, the 6’7” Sandfort has been overlooked among other big snipers in this class. He does a stellar job of stopping on a dime off movement before beginning his shooting motion. There’s minimal mechanical dip, allowing him to get the ball off in a hurry. He’s not a great athlete and can be a bit heavy-footed on defense. Still, he’s a real-deal shooter with size who rebounds and posted a 2-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio. He makes a lot of sense in the second round.
-Look, I’m not into small guards. That’s why they call me “Mr. Exercises Caution About Small Guards.” Okay, I lied, no one calls me that. Anyway, KJ Simpson still makes me second-guess myself on that front at times. He’s comfortable on and off the ball thanks to his spot-up shooting game and pick-and-roll savvy. But it’s the little things I like about Simpson. He made some sharp defensive rotations in the Boise State game. His quickness and recognition allowed him to make plays in gray areas on both ends of the floor. Simpson plays with a real toughness, outrebounding his larger teammates on a consistent basis. At 6’2”, he’ll always be undersized, and he’s not a great athlete. That does put a cap on what he can become in the NBA. But I’m becoming more and more convinced that he won’t be a small guard who simply washes out of the league.
-You know who’s quietly been good lately? Cincinnati big man Aziz Bandaogo. After getting a late start due to a transfer waiver issue, Bandaogo has played himself into shape, and he’s looking like his old self. The 7’0” big man is a high-end rim runner and great lob target. The Bearcats don’t find him as often as they should, but he’s always ready to finish an alley-oop. Defensively, his agility and bounce make him formidable in a variety of ball screen coverages. The counting numbers aren’t going to blow anyone away, but Bandaogo has a clear skill set for a low-maintenance NBA role with the requisite length and athleticism to make it work.
-Look, I get it. N’Faly Dante is old for a draft prospect, and he’s had some injuries. But the dude is clearly good in a way that scales up to the NBA level. He’s 6’11” with the length, strength, and toughness to bang it out against pros. He’s an effective finisher who never gets fancy with it. He knows who he is and he doesn’t make mistakes. On defense, he moves his feet exceptionally well. When guarding in space, Dante displays the agility you’d expect from a soccer player rather than a man with his size. Still, he has the power and bounce to turn people away at the cup. N’Faly Dante isn’t going to drastically swing the fortunes of an NBA team. But when it comes to lower usage bench spots, competitive teams should be seeking guys who know who they are, who know how to play, and most importantly, actually can play at a high level. That’s N’Faly Dante.
-Utah’s Branden Carlson will turn 25 before draft night. Still, I wouldn’t rule him out as a two-way candidate. He showcased his skill set wonderfully against UC-Irvine in the NIT, posting 21 points, 11 rebounds, and five blocks. At 7’0”, he’s a comfortable movement shooter (37.6% from three on 4.8 attempts per game). He also gets up easily as a lob target and knows how to position himself behind the back line of the defense in the dunker spot. He’s a big thin for the center position, but his leaping ability, ball tracking, and rotational awareness make him a capable rim protector. Don’t sleep on Carlson.
-Erik Reynolds II’s season came to an end, but I’ll be keeping an eye on him next season. St.Joe’s’ 6’2” junior guard is shifty and possesses outrageous takeover scoring ability. While he’s still a little too locked in on finding his own shot at times, he upped his assists and cut his turnover rates this year. His long arms could help him stay above board defensively at the next level. Again, I’m typically leery of these smaller guards, but Reynolds is a guy that makes me go, “hey, hold on a minute.”
-One last shorter guard needs a tip of the hat, and that’s Walter Clayton Jr. He dominated offensively down the stretch against Colorado. His transfer from Iona to Florida wasn’t without hiccups. His handle needs work and he struggled with turnovers. However, I think with one more year, he’s going to be off to the races. He’s physically up to the task and won’t back down in big moments. As he grows more comfortable with the speed of the high-major game, I also think we’ll see his shooting efficiency round back into form. Plus, the game should start to slow down for him as a creator. I’ve long been a fan of Clayton, and I’m rooting for him to get over the NBA hump next season.