If he can improve on getting lost off the ball at times and his screen navigation he can be an excellent defender. I’m still trying to dive in more to his playmaking. On one hand, he’s averaging barely any assists, but he constantly makes the right read out of traps (even if he dosent manipulate them) and can hit skips and far kickouts when driving. He’s got ambidextrous passing touch too and loves the laydown. But it’s hard to look at the lack of passing production compared to AJ and cam even if he has a better feel for the game than AJ. He gets the ball where it needs to be, is capable of complex reads but it’s hard to evaluate tha part because he’s getting so much attention. He’s converting and getting to the rim less than he did in high school, probably because of injuries. He’s not as explosive off two in traffic and has to settle for some tougher shots because of the offense he’s in. Still silky smooth floater and dexterity to use either hand on either foot around the rim. and elite or above average shooting and versatility. He could be a lot of types of players.
Great comment and I really agree on the defence. He seems to care, which is huge for prospects like him that carry such a heavy offensive load, and he has held up on that end far better than I expected most times I've watched him. I also think the screen navigation should improve with time, that's often an experience thing and he's agile enough that I'm not too concerned.
However, I find that other aspect -getting lost off ball- a little concerning. I've seen many top prospects have that same issue in college and it rarely seems to actually improve. It's usually an attention/focus thing IMO and there's just so much more movement in the NBA... even if he does improve, I expect him to have a few egregious seasons first.
But the main thing I want to address is the playmaking:
1. Regarding the assist numbers, I'm not really concerned by the lack of assists. It just wasn't his role this year. Self tended to run sets through Council pretty much all year and for the most part, Peterson played within that system. He was looking for his shot first and foremost, and usually Kansas needed him to do that. He hit the open man most of the time and had some really great flashes, but even more importantly, when he DID get the opportunity to be the primary ballhandler, I think he did quite well. The St. John's game was a good example IMO. Yes, he finished with 0 assists, but I don't think that's reflective of his play at all. They ran the offense through him more and he made the right move pretty much every time. His team bricked some open shots (Kansas only made 2(1) 3's outside of Peterson's) and missed some obvious cut opportunities (plus there was that missed dunk...) but I think he 'should' have had 4 assists+ based solely on how he played.
2. Still, at least based on this season, he was not ('was' is important for my next point) an advantage maker in a playmaking sense at all. He can create advantages just fine, but only for himself. When it comes to passing, he will MAKE the right decision most of the time, which is great for a traditional 2. But he rarely CREATES those 'right decision' opportunities if that makes sense. Basically, he doesn't manipulate defences for the benefit of his teammates, and he isn't really concerned with creating opportunities for them either. But if they find an opening or make a 'right decision' opening for him, Peterson will reward them for it more often than not. What I am really saying is that while he isn't a great passer, he isn't Cam Whitmore or Cam Thomas either. He is a capable and willing passer. But I don't think he is much of a playmaking creator either.
3. That being said, if you haven't watched his highschool tape, I encourage it if possible. Pretty much the entire reason he overtook AJ for #1 last year was that he showed really impressive growth specifically as a playmaker, while AJ stagnated a lot in that regard (although AJ improved a lot this year, to his credit!). You can see this growth just in the raw stat improvements vs AJ across their highschool career, but also watching some of the film just gives me a lot of confidence that he has more playmaking ability than he was able to showcase this year. I'm not saying I think he can ever be a great lead creator in the NBA, and he'll never average 7+ assists, but if the rest of his game translates, I fully expect Darryn to average 4-5 assists across his prime.
4. Building on that last point, I think Devin Booker is a decent high-end outcome for him in this regard. I don't think Darryn ever reaches Booker's 6-8 assist averages, but ideally a good NBA team doesn't want Booker averaging that much either (he was at 4.3 and 4.8 the two years he played with CP3, the only two years in which Booker has had playoff success). Booker averaged 1.1 assists at Kentucky (albeit in a VERY different role) and then averaged 2.6, 3.4, and 4.7 assists across his first 3 seasons on VERY high minutes and with very average AST% before exploding in his fourth year. I think Peterson can average 3rd year Booker assist stats very realistically (20ish~ AST%), and I think he can reach that point faster than Booker did. I just also don't expect him to ever keep evolving past that point, so not a perfect 1:1 comparison, but I still think it works.
Last point, I promise:
5. Regarding the explosiveness, I don't think it's probably because of injuries, I think it definitely is. Watching the tape, he just clearly moves differently this year, it's basically undeniable. Things are coming harder to him and he just looks less fluid out there. I don't think he was ever THAT explosive but his movement was always smooth, and this year it just.... wasn't. At Kansas I think he was making shots despite his movement, whereas before I think he was making them partially because of it. IMO it's actually kind of a testament to his shot-making ability that his numbers weren't worse this season. That being said, there's also no guarantee he ever fully gets back to the level of health that we saw last year, so I think it's fair to question it going forward. I just don't think it's fair to question if the injuries had an impact (not suggesting you were, but the media as a whole definitely has)
Sorry for how long this got, just had a lot to say on the topic
If he can improve on getting lost off the ball at times and his screen navigation he can be an excellent defender. I’m still trying to dive in more to his playmaking. On one hand, he’s averaging barely any assists, but he constantly makes the right read out of traps (even if he dosent manipulate them) and can hit skips and far kickouts when driving. He’s got ambidextrous passing touch too and loves the laydown. But it’s hard to look at the lack of passing production compared to AJ and cam even if he has a better feel for the game than AJ. He gets the ball where it needs to be, is capable of complex reads but it’s hard to evaluate tha part because he’s getting so much attention. He’s converting and getting to the rim less than he did in high school, probably because of injuries. He’s not as explosive off two in traffic and has to settle for some tougher shots because of the offense he’s in. Still silky smooth floater and dexterity to use either hand on either foot around the rim. and elite or above average shooting and versatility. He could be a lot of types of players.
Great comment and I really agree on the defence. He seems to care, which is huge for prospects like him that carry such a heavy offensive load, and he has held up on that end far better than I expected most times I've watched him. I also think the screen navigation should improve with time, that's often an experience thing and he's agile enough that I'm not too concerned.
However, I find that other aspect -getting lost off ball- a little concerning. I've seen many top prospects have that same issue in college and it rarely seems to actually improve. It's usually an attention/focus thing IMO and there's just so much more movement in the NBA... even if he does improve, I expect him to have a few egregious seasons first.
But the main thing I want to address is the playmaking:
1. Regarding the assist numbers, I'm not really concerned by the lack of assists. It just wasn't his role this year. Self tended to run sets through Council pretty much all year and for the most part, Peterson played within that system. He was looking for his shot first and foremost, and usually Kansas needed him to do that. He hit the open man most of the time and had some really great flashes, but even more importantly, when he DID get the opportunity to be the primary ballhandler, I think he did quite well. The St. John's game was a good example IMO. Yes, he finished with 0 assists, but I don't think that's reflective of his play at all. They ran the offense through him more and he made the right move pretty much every time. His team bricked some open shots (Kansas only made 2(1) 3's outside of Peterson's) and missed some obvious cut opportunities (plus there was that missed dunk...) but I think he 'should' have had 4 assists+ based solely on how he played.
2. Still, at least based on this season, he was not ('was' is important for my next point) an advantage maker in a playmaking sense at all. He can create advantages just fine, but only for himself. When it comes to passing, he will MAKE the right decision most of the time, which is great for a traditional 2. But he rarely CREATES those 'right decision' opportunities if that makes sense. Basically, he doesn't manipulate defences for the benefit of his teammates, and he isn't really concerned with creating opportunities for them either. But if they find an opening or make a 'right decision' opening for him, Peterson will reward them for it more often than not. What I am really saying is that while he isn't a great passer, he isn't Cam Whitmore or Cam Thomas either. He is a capable and willing passer. But I don't think he is much of a playmaking creator either.
3. That being said, if you haven't watched his highschool tape, I encourage it if possible. Pretty much the entire reason he overtook AJ for #1 last year was that he showed really impressive growth specifically as a playmaker, while AJ stagnated a lot in that regard (although AJ improved a lot this year, to his credit!). You can see this growth just in the raw stat improvements vs AJ across their highschool career, but also watching some of the film just gives me a lot of confidence that he has more playmaking ability than he was able to showcase this year. I'm not saying I think he can ever be a great lead creator in the NBA, and he'll never average 7+ assists, but if the rest of his game translates, I fully expect Darryn to average 4-5 assists across his prime.
4. Building on that last point, I think Devin Booker is a decent high-end outcome for him in this regard. I don't think Darryn ever reaches Booker's 6-8 assist averages, but ideally a good NBA team doesn't want Booker averaging that much either (he was at 4.3 and 4.8 the two years he played with CP3, the only two years in which Booker has had playoff success). Booker averaged 1.1 assists at Kentucky (albeit in a VERY different role) and then averaged 2.6, 3.4, and 4.7 assists across his first 3 seasons on VERY high minutes and with very average AST% before exploding in his fourth year. I think Peterson can average 3rd year Booker assist stats very realistically (20ish~ AST%), and I think he can reach that point faster than Booker did. I just also don't expect him to ever keep evolving past that point, so not a perfect 1:1 comparison, but I still think it works.
Last point, I promise:
5. Regarding the explosiveness, I don't think it's probably because of injuries, I think it definitely is. Watching the tape, he just clearly moves differently this year, it's basically undeniable. Things are coming harder to him and he just looks less fluid out there. I don't think he was ever THAT explosive but his movement was always smooth, and this year it just.... wasn't. At Kansas I think he was making shots despite his movement, whereas before I think he was making them partially because of it. IMO it's actually kind of a testament to his shot-making ability that his numbers weren't worse this season. That being said, there's also no guarantee he ever fully gets back to the level of health that we saw last year, so I think it's fair to question it going forward. I just don't think it's fair to question if the injuries had an impact (not suggesting you were, but the media as a whole definitely has)
Sorry for how long this got, just had a lot to say on the topic