Figuring Out Will Riley

Illinois's Will Riley is one of the most intriguing prospects in the 2025 NBA Draft, but he's still a risky proposition. Maxwell dissects his game and examines his upside.

I’m not a procrastinator.

Generally speaking, I’m a proactive person. When I’m assigned work, I like to get it done right away and put it behind me. Additionally, I’m the type of person who likes to “work ahead” whenever possible. This is mostly driven by anxiety, as I hate nothing more than when something goes awry at the wrong time and I’m suddenly overwhelmed with work. The last thing I was is to deliver poor results, or no results whatsoever, because I let too much accumulate on my plate at any given time.

There is one exception. Confusing prospects.

Every once in a while, I run into a player that I have a hard time pinning down. Sometimes, I’m able to work my way through it after keying in on them for a few games. Other times, not so much. And when I can’t solidify my stance, I roll out my “I’ll just figure this out after the season ends” line. On one hand, I hate doing this. It makes me feel lazy. Conversely, I feel as if it’s helped me operate with a much better degree of clarity. I can let the day-to-day noise of the season wash away and come into my evaluation with a fresh set of eyes.

This year, Will Riley was one of those guys. Let’s get into what excites me, what scares me, and where I land today.

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The Background

Will Riley has been on NBA radars for a long time. The 6’8” Canadian native was a highly touted prospect, and he came stateside for the last two years of his high school career. He attended The Phelps School in Malvern, Pennsylvania, and led them to a second-place finish in the Pennsylvania Independent Schools Athletic Association tournament during the 2023-2024 season. Riley also tore it up on the grassroots and camp circuits. During the 2023 grassroots season, he posted gaudy scoring numbers for UPlay Canada’s 16U team in the EYBL while showcasing a unique passing flair rarely seen from a teenager his size. Riley’s momentum continued into the 2024 Basketball Without Borders camp during All-Star Weekend. There, he won MVP honors while competing on a loaded squad alongside Kasaparas Jakucionis, Khaman Maluach, and Nolan Traore. Originally a member of the 2025 high school class, Riley reclassified and joined the Illinois Fighting Illini for the 2024-2025 college season.

The Intrigue

Will Riley has the potential to contribute as both a play finisher and playmaker. While he didn’t post the highest percentage from deep this season (32.6 3FG%), the volume was there, as he took 8.9 threes per 100 possessions. He’s always willing to let it fly. Riley has shown flashes as a movement shooter, coming off of screens, setting his feet, and getting into his mechanics at the proper speed. He’s a consistent relocator who routinely finds ways to get himself open. Additionally, he displays an impressive level of courage from long range, demonstrating impressive poise and a consistent motion even in the face of a hard closeout. While the overall results left something to be desired, the traits, tendencies, and flashes that Riley showed are what NBA front offices look for in a floor-spacing complementary player.

But in the NBA, sometimes you have to do more than just the complementary stuff. Players get chased off the line. Situations call for non-stars to run ball screens. Regardless of who you are, at some point, you will be forced to do more than the bare minimum. What makes Riley all the more intriguing is that the man has a bag.

Per Synergy, Riley ranked in the 90th percentile on isolation possessions this past season. He has a variety of ways to create for himself on an island, and he can get to his spots at all three levels. His rhythm-and-rock footwork enables him to generate space east-west or going backward. He’s also willing to launch a pull-up three if you give him too much room. His herky-jerky movement patterns help him to shake defenders in the mid-range before winning with his touch. Lastly, despite his skinny frame (195 pounds), Riley managed to get to the rim consistently. He took 31.5% of his halfcourt shots at the rim while converting a strong 60% of them, per Synergy. His long strides to the basket help him shut the door once an advantage has been created, and he has the toughness to get the job done through contact.

Here’s the best part—Riley isn’t just a bucket getter. He’s an advanced passer for his age, too. His 16.1 AST% and 1.83 assist-to-turnover ratio both grade out well for a wing prospect. The basics are here, as he can make the simple pass out of a ball screen or keep the rock humming with a quick .5 skip on the perimeter. What makes him so interesting, though, is how smooth he is as an on-the-go operator. He always has his head up, and his handle enables him to weave through traffic. As a result, defenses collapse on him, and rotations get missed. Riley is quick to recognize these openings. Whether it’s a lob pass to a cutter or a dish to an open shooter, Riley can see it and execute on it. This is all the more impressive when you take into account that he did all of this as a 6’8” 19-year-old playing in a power conference.

The Holdup

There are reasons Riley is often projected in the back-half of the first round rather than the top half. One is that despite his flashes as a scorer, he still struggled with efficiency overall. His 53.2 TS% is a poor mark for a prospect. Riley’s pull-up heavy shot diet in the mid-range hurt him inside the arc, as did his poor results from three this season. At 195 pounds with mundane athleticism, he may also struggle to get to his spots at the next level against NBA physicality, which will only make scoring more difficult. Still, I’m intrigued by his overall combination of size and skill on that end. The real pause comes on the defensive end.

Riley had a hard time on defense this past season. A lot of that has to do with the physical component. He struggles to navigate screens both on and off the ball. Technically speaking, his stance is poor. He’s often upright with his legs while hunched up top with his arms in too tight to his body, making him a prime blow-by target. Bigger players can plow through him to get to their spots inside. He’s not much of a playmaker, either. He doesn’t have the blend of instincts and athletic traits to jump passing lanes or swat shots as a helper. As a result, he posted an iffy 1.0 BLK% and an outlier-bad 0.6 STL%.

Last week, I wrote about statistical red flags and the guys who beat them. One of those groups I covered was wings who don’t get stocks, a label that applies to Riley. The are 11 of those players who’ve carved out/are on pace to carve out long-term NBA careers since 2017. Riley meets some of the common threads among those prospects. He had a high free-throw rate, pressured the rim effectively, and limited his turnovers. Unfortunately, he fell short on usage and efficiency metrics. His poor defensive output makes him a dicey proposition.

Conclusion

Will Riley is a tricky evaluation for me. On one hand, I love how his traits could come together. He’s a willing shooter with deep range. He moves the ball well and isn’t going to crumble under pressure when he has to make decisions. His handle and fluidity as a creator, both physically and mentally, are tough to come by at his height. Speaking of height, he’s 6’8”! That’s a really good thing! Conversely, there are real concerns here. First off, there’s his frame. He’s rail thin right now. As a result, it’ll be tougher for him to get to his spots on offense, and he’ll be even more of a bullying target defensively, at least during the early portion of his career. He will need to improve dramatically as both an on and off ball defender, too.

Teams can lose out by focusing too much on what a player isn’t rather than what a player is or who they could become. If Riley can get his body right and become playable defensively, he’d be a 6’8” dribble-pass-shoot wing. Teams like having that type of player! Plus, I think the rarity of his ball skills at his height will likely see him go in the first round. That said, there is a degree of risk with Riley given his current frame and defensive woes. I’d like him best for a team that is willing to be patient with his development and/or has multiple picks. That way, he can take his time to fill out his frame and round out his skill set.