Five Interesting Prospects on the Margins | The Prospect Overview
Championships are won the margins. As such, Maxwell examine five of the most interesting 2025 NBA Draft sleepers, including Javon Small, Eric Dixon, Dylan Cardwell, and more!
This shouldn’t come as a surprise to longtime readers of my work, but one of the main things that drew my interest in draft scouting was the margins. I’d always researched the draft—just never to the extent I do now. And when I did, it was always easy for me to learn about the names at the top. There was no shortage of written scouting reports and highlight reels available for the big dogs. But further down the board, information became harder to come by. When Draft Express would upload their classic strengths and weaknesses videos on guys projected in the second round, it would give me the effect of three cups of coffee. Sam Vecenie’s Rookie Scale Prospect Team Rankings back in 2019-2020 further heightened my interest. Seeing someone write thoughtfully and in detail about guys on a two-way contract was so fresh and exciting at the time.
We’ve also seen titles tilted in part due to team-building victories on the margins. Alex Caruso, Sam Hauser, Gary Payton II, Luke Kornet, and Bryn Forbes all played real playoff minutes for title winners in recent years after going undrafted. That doesn’t even account for the number of impactful players who were drafted in the second round (see: Jokic, Nikola). My passion here isn’t just about covering things that aren’t covered as accessibly—it’s about identifying ways that teams could potentially bolster their success.
Today, we’re going to talk about five of the most interesting prospects on the margins. These five guys might not necessarily be who I would consider the absolute best prospects on the margins, but they all have a few things that make them particularly interesting. Additionally, they are all set to be auto-eligible for the NBA Draft in June, barring further NCAA rule changes. These players are often excluded from mainstream mock drafts but are prospects that I would currently consider anywhere from a late-second round two-way to an Exhibit-10 contract.
Javon Small, 6'2”, Guard, West Virginia
2024-2025 Stats: 19.5 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 4.9 APG, 3.1 TOV, 1.9 SPG, 0.4 BPG
What makes him so interesting?
Javon Small can appeal to any type of basketball mind. Analytically inclined fans will love to see his sky-high 10.1 BPM, which is the product of strong two-way production (5.9 OBPM, 4.2 DBPM). Tape junkies will appreciate his nuance as a playmaker, willingness to move without the ball, and ability to create shots for himself at all three levels. If you’re concerned about mentality and you want a hyper-competitive dude that you can go to war with, that’s Javon Small. He’s made big plays in big moments all year long, helping propel a Mountaineers squad ravaged by injuries to wins over Gonzaga, Arizona, Georgetown, and Kansas. No matter how you look at the game, once you dig into him, you should come away a fan. Javon Small is for everybody.
West Virginia’s injury situation has forced Javon Small into a massive role, and he’s done a tremendous job with it. For starters, the team is 11-3. He finds ways to win. But the way he’s doing it has me excited about his professional future. In the modern NBA, role players need to be able to shoot. While Small’s 35.1% from deep on the year isn’t eye-popping, his volume and variety are worth noting. He’s launching 11.6 triples per 100 possessions. Small routinely punishes defenders who go under ball screens or big men who play in too deep of a drop, drilling 48.4% of his threes as a pick-and-roll operator, per Synergy. He’s not a guy who dribbles the air out of the ball, though. When he can’t find his shot, he’s content to move on from the ball and find other ways to get open. He’s good at relocating and can hit threes off movement.
Small’s ability and willingness to shoot opens up his downhill game. At 190 pounds, he’s physically strong and welcoming of contact. He gets to the line a lot (.390 FTr) but also has the touch to finish in traffic (58.8% at the rim in the halfcourt). And while Small can win with his power, he’s not limited to only winning in that single way. He’s also slippery downhill and can weave his way through traffic. He makes excellent use of directional changes, hesitation, and deceleration, all of which help him to generate space. Plus, he’s a heads-up passer (29.6 AST%) who knows how to punish help and find the open man. Small can create advantages in a multitude of ways, and when he collapses defenses, his selflessness allows his teammates to get in on the action. Few guards are as well-rounded and dynamic of a playmaker as Javon Small.
Given Small’s hefty usage rate (28.7 USG%) and energizer bunny approach to moving without the ball, one could reasonably expect him to take a back seat on the defensive end. But he doesn’t. Small is actually posting a career-high 1.9 SPG and 0.4 BPG. His feel carries over here, as he’s able to read the opposing team’s offense well off the ball. His speed and strength enable him to guard other ball handlers tight at the point of attack, and his mirroring skill makes him tough to shake. He navigates screens pretty well and makes an effort to get back in the play when he does get hung up. Additionally, he gets after it on the glass (14.2 DRB%), which is more important than one might expect when it comes to projecting NBA success for guards. Small’s effort and production, despite a high workload, are a testament to his motor, instincts, and intelligence as a basketball player.
Why is he on the margins?
Javon Small is 6’2”. It’s been beaten to death, and I’m a part of that, but it’s really tough for shorter guards to find playing time in the modern NBA. Modern offenses require players to cover more ground and guard a wider variety of positions, and the smaller a player is, the more difficult that becomes. Plus, as more teams have leaned into size, it’s made life on offense harder for sub-6’3” players, too. It’s harder to gain separation from a bigger opponent. As a result of this phenomenon, front offices have been leery of drafting smaller guards, particularly when they don’t see massive upside. It’s hard to push back against, too. Look at KJ Simpson. He was a world-beater at Colorado, stuffing the stat sheet and earning All-Pac-12 First Team honors. In the NBA, he’s struggled to get minutes for the Hornets, posting a -6.4 BPM through 12 games. In the G League, which has become filled with talented smaller guards who can’t find an NBA home, Simpson comes across as solid but unspectacular. It’s tough to overcome the small guard stigma.
Conclusion
Javon Small is typically a guy I’d caution against getting too excited about. He’s an older, undersized prospect. However, it’s hard to argue with the production and the tape. Small is getting it done at a high level on both ends of the floor while leading his team with minimal roster continuity to a fantastic record. Offensively, he can play on or off the ball effectively. Defensively, while his size will always be a limiting factor of sorts, his footspeed, strength, and grit should help compensate for that to a degree. And while it may seem corny, Small has an “It Factor” to him. He thinks the game a step ahead of his opponents and always feels like the most competitive guy on the floor. If I’m going to invest in an older, undersized prospect, I want what Javon Small is bringing—over-the-top production on both ends of the floor with a heavy usage load on a great team. I currently see Small as someone deserving of a two-way contract, and I’d consider drafting him in the second round, depending on how the board shakes out.
Eric Dixon, 6’8”, Big, Villanova
2024-2025 Stats: 25.3 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 2.3 APG, 1.9 TOV, 0.9 SPG, 0.3 BPG
What makes him so interesting?
Eric Dixon takes a lot of shots, and he rarely misses.
Since 2008, only two players have posted a usage rate over 32 with a True Shooting Percentage over 65—Zach Edey (who did it twice) and Eric Dixon. The bulky big man may be built like a linebacker, but he has baby soft touch that borders on immaculate. That’s why he’s college basketball’s leading scorer. The most obvious NBA value-add is his three-ball. Dixon is drilling 47% of his threes on an astounding seven attempts per game. The degree of difficulty is off the charts, too. Dixon will take some real deep ones. What’s more, he rarely gets clean looks. Per Synergy, only 19 of his 98 three-point attempts this year have been unguarded catch-and-shoots. He’s shooting over a contest 80% of the time, and he’s still hitting shots at an elite level.
This gravity leads to hard closeouts, and Dixon isn’t totally bereft of ball skills, either. He’s able to take a few dribbles with comfort, and his hulking 265-pound frame helps him get to his spots. He has similarly soft touch in the mid-range and post. This allows him to effectively hunt mismatches inside. While he’s not the most mesmerizing passer, his 15.3 AST% is solid, and he’s a low-mistake decision-maker.
On the defensive end, it enables him to hold up well when guarding the post. On the perimeter, he does a good job of staying within his stance when he covers smaller players. He gets low, operates with discipline, and slides his feet without getting crossed up. Per Synergy, he’s only surrendered seven total points during the 12 isolation possessions he’s guarded this season.
Why is he on the margins?
Eric Dixon’s game doesn’t fit neatly into any one box. While he is a big, he’s not a center. At the Portsmouth Invitational Tournament last year, Dixon measured with a 6’11.5” wingspan and an 8’8” standing reach, more in line with an NBA four than a five. But if he’s a four, the basic nature of his ball skills becomes more problematic. While he holds up well on an island at the college level, I worry about him doing so at the NBA level. I also worry about the speed at which he’ll be able to cover ground rotationally. He’s also ground-bound. So far this season, Dixon has registered one made dunk, and he has a 1.2 BLK%. You’re getting more dunks and blocks from Javon Small than Eric Dixon, and that’s not ideal. He’s never been great on the glass, either, averaging a career 5.7 RPG.
Conclusion
There are certain things that Dixon is likely unable to provide, given his age, athletic profile, and statistical track record. Defense and the speed of the NBA will provide him with new challenges. Despite being a big on paper, he’s not much of a rebounder or shot blocker. He’s certainly not an above-the-rim finisher. And if he’s not a big, then his lack of quickness and on-ball creation tools become a larger concern.
But how much are you going to let that trip you up when we’re talking about a 6’8” dude who is netting 47% of his threes on high volume? I think the correct answer is: “a reasonable, but not disqualifying amount.” Dixon is older, and the things he lacks aren’t likely to materialize. But Dixon is having a scoring season that borders on historic. He’s also taking better care of the ball despite a gigantic workload, and he’s managed to hold his own in space. His professional responsibilities will be much more simplified than the one he plays currently, and I’m hoping that being able to devote more attention to detail in those areas can get him over the top. Similar to Small, I think Eric Dixon is a legitimate late-second-round pick and two-way candidate. I’m always inclined to bet on weird outliers, and Eric Dixon is putting together a weird outlier campaign. If he can figure something out defensively, his nightmarish mismatch skill set could lead to him carving out an NBA roster spot.
Dylan Cardwell, 6’11”, Big, Auburn
2024-2025 Stats: 5.5 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 1.8 APG, 0.6 TOV, 1.4 BPG, 0.6 SPG
What makes him so interesting?
Dylan Cardwell is like The Costco Guys of college basketball, in that he’s always bringing the boom.
From a pure frame and athleticism standpoint, there’s a lot to like. Cardwell looks every bit of 6’11”, he’s a powerful 255 pounds, and he can jump out of the gym. Offensively, he dunks everything. He’s a big-time lob target with soft hands and a giant catch radius. When he catches the ball on the ground, he prefers to leave little to chance and goes up strong to slam it home as often as possible. This has led to a hyper-efficient career eFG% of 71.3%. Defensively, Cardwell is a force around the rim. He flies off the floor to reject opponents on a regular basis, hence his career BLK% of 9.3.
What makes Cardwell so interesting, though, is that he’s more than the big, bad dude he appears to be at first glance. There’s a skill and finesse to him that few powerhouse big men can even dream of offering. Cardwell has posted a 15.2 AST% over the last few seasons, an elite mark for a big man. He’s unselfish, sees the floor well, and can act as a hub from the high post. He’s a good floor mapper who can find open shooters after grabbing an offensive rebound. And on defense, Cardwell is far more graceful guarding down the lineup than most his size. He slides his feet well while still utilizing his power advantage to bully opponents into dribble picks. If they do get inside, he usually swallows them up at the rim, anyway. There’s a classic rim-runner skill set to be had here, but the scary thing is that Cardwell is more brains than brawn.
Why is he on the margins?
First off, there are the counting numbers. Generally speaking, NBA teams aren’t excited about drafting freshmen who averaged under six points per game, let alone 23-year-olds. Even if you’re okay overlooking that, there are two very real statistical concerns. The first is that Cardwell is an exceptionally poor free-throw shooter. He’s at 28.0% from the charity stripe this season and 49.0% from the floor. That likely rules out him ever being a crunch-time contributor. The other issue with Cardwell is that he fouls a lot. To his credit, he’s done a much better job with that this year now that he’s in a starting role. But his career average of 8.2 fouls per 100 possessions very much shows up on film. While he does have a great nose for the ball, he can be too reckless in the chase of defensive playmaking.
Conclusion
I get it. Cardwell is older, he’s never played more than 20 MPG in college, he’s bad at free throws, and he can be foul prone. I won’t dispute any of that. But in turn, I ask that you consider his bonkers advanced statistical profile, combined with how the dude flies off the screen when you dig into the game tape. He has a career BPM of 8.0. Cardwell is someone who can come into the league and do the garbage man stuff—rebounding, screening, and finishing. But his passing, agility, and willingness to accept a reduced role all make him particularly unique. Not a lot of guys have the dimensions that he does while still having his athleticism and skill. The potential number of centers with genuine NBA chances could be higher than normal, which may hurt his initial positioning as he enters the league. He’s unlikely to hear his name called on draft night, but I’d be ringing up his agent about an Exhibit-10 (or potentially even a two-way) the second the draft is over.
Steve Settle III, 6’10”, Wing, Temple
2024-2025 Stats: 11.1 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 1.9 APG, 0.9 TOV, 0.9 SPG, 1.3 BPG
What makes him so interesting?
When you find 3-and-D prospects with length who can make good decisions, they are always in. That’s Steve Settle III.
The 6’10” Settle is shooting 39.3% from deep on the year on rock-solid volume for a forward prospect. When spotting up, his high release point makes it difficult to contest his shot. But Settle has been on my radar for a long time, and what has piqued my interest most this year is the shot-maker element that he’s added from long range. He’s begun to take more threes off the bounce this season, adding an additional wrinkle to his game. While it’s unlikely that an NBA team would want him to turn loose and cook, having additional ways that he can generate space for himself can only help to distinguish him. Settle has a smooth rhythm to his handle and demonstrates good balance going into his occasional step-back or side-step three. He’s also improved as a decision-maker, posting 1.9 APG to 0.9 TOV. Settle rarely stops the ball and doesn’t ever seem to bite off more than he can chew.
Defensively, Settle has long been a disruptive force thanks to his long arms and sharp instincts. On the ball, he showcases good lateral agility, and he elevates well out of his slide when he contests shots inside. Even when he doesn’t get a block, his sheer length makes it difficult to generate good rim angles against him. Away from the ball, his wingspan and timing make him a persistent threat in passing lanes. Settle is also an eager rim helper who can soar in above the rim to turn away opponents. Throughout his college career, he’s posted a 2.4 STL% and 3.4 BLK%, both impressive marks for a forward prospect.
Why is he on the margins?
For starters, Settle is the oldest prospect on this list, as he’ll turn 24 in February. He’s also long been on the skinny side, currently listed at 192 pounds. The dude is thin. Stronger opponents are able to force Settle backward and fight to their spots. He can also struggle to maintain his lane downhill when driving to the basket. His woes against contact have led to him only converting 50% of his halfcourt rim attempts this season. His advanced data case is tricky, as he’s a lower usage (16.1 USG%) upperclassman who is having his first 4.0+ BPM season.
Conclusion
There are fair reasons to doubt Settle’s NBA chances. He’s an older prospect who has never been offensively dominant at the college level, and he’s further away body-wise than you’d like to see. Still, I wonder if his length and feel could lead to a more favorable translation than one might expect. Settle’s always been a confident shooter for his size, and he’s always made plays on defense. His development as a passer this year makes it easier to envision him sliding into a low-maintenance role professionally. At a certain point in the team building process, two-way slots and Exhibit-10s have to be given to guys who have some imperfections. Settle’s height and the value of his skill set make him an E-10 flier I’d be happy to take. How he fares throughout the remainder of the season and during the pre-draft process could see him slide up or down from there.
Cameron Matthews, 6’7”, Forward, Mississippi State
2024-2025 Stats: 8.7 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 4.0 APG, 2.1 TOV, 2.8 SPG, 0.8 BPG
What makes him so interesting?
Cameron Matthews is as versatile and disruptive defender as you can find in college basketball. He makes life a living hell for opposing offenses.
Matthews stands 6’7”, he appears to have long arms, and he’s a well-built 235 pounds. When he’s put onto smaller players, he’s able to overwhelm them with his physicality while still having the foot speed to contain the ball. Bigger players aren’t able to bully him, either. Just ask Collin Murray-Boyles, who Matthews put the clamps on, holding him to five points on 2-9 shooting while forcing several of his six turnovers. Matthews has elite hand-eye coordination, which has allowed him to average 3.6 stocks per game. While he can meet opponents above the rim, he excels at getting in low for strip blocks as opponents go up. He does a great job of poking into the opposing ball handler’s dribble at the point of attack. Off the ball, his rotational instincts are as good as they come. He has a strong nose for the ball and gets where he wants to go in a hurry. If he closes out hard on a shooter who subsequently tries to blow by him, he still has the balance to shift directions and keep them out of the paint. It’s hard to think of a box he doesn’t check on that end of the floor.
Matthews’s strength and feel carry over to the offensive side of the ball, too. He’s got real ball skills. Matthews has a functional handle, and he’s a highly capable passer. That allows him to grab-and-go to initiate transition offense. In the half-court, he can run dribble handoffs and sling the ball to cutters from the top of the key. If a defender plays up on him in a DHO, his power and quickness allow him to turn the corner. He’s more than just a stationary passer, too, and he can whip it to open teammates if they open up while he drives to the cup. His 24.2 AST% is a fantastic mark for a prospect his size.
Why is he on the margins?
Matthews has been on my radar for years. And every year, I’ve hoped for one thing—a jump shot. It’s never come along. During his five college seasons, Matthews has taken 101 total threes, and he’s only made 21 of them. He’s also having his lowest-volume shooting season to date while converting only 53.6% of his free throws. The longer he’s gone without turning that around, the tougher it has become for me to justify the idea of a potential shooting leap, even to “near respectable” levels. Given that he doesn’t have the positional size to play center, he will likely require a very narrow roster fit in order to make things work. I’m just not certain how he scores or produces any level of scoring gravity at the NBA level.
Conclusion
For a long time, it felt like teams were trying to identify “The Next Draymond Green,” a pursuit that ended fruitlessly time and time again. What makes Draymond Green, well, Draymond Green, is the multiple areas of extreme proficiency, his exceptional ability to read the game, and unique blend of physical tools. Teams have chased guys who were lacking in one or a few of those areas, and no one has come close to matching what Green could do. The idea of a Draymond Green-style player is like a precariously built Jenga tower, where the entire thing collapses if one of the pieces isn’t in the exact right spot. For those reasons, I can understand why scouts would look at Cameron Matthews and go: “We’ve tried this, and it doesn’t work.”
Jonathan Mogbo is making me wonder if “Draymond-lite” is more of a possibility, though. The rookie is fourth among rookies in VORP and eighth in BPM. He’s still a subpar, lower-volume shooter, and he’s always going to be a trickier lineup fit than his more traditional wing-sized peers. This isn’t to say that Matthews is Mogbo—there are distinct differences. Mogbo is bouncier and more slippery with the ball. He also had a funky, late-blooming trajectory, indicating more upside than Matthews, who has been similar in both size and output for several years. But still, I think the idea matters; there can be a place for high-feel disruptors with ball skills who can cover a multitude of positions.
Finding value in the undrafted free agency pool isn’t easy. You don’t get to pick from a pool of perfect players. Personally, I tend to skew toward aiming at players who could thrive in a plug-and-play role, or guys with quirky, outlier production. While Matthews will require a particular roster fit, it’s tough to quibble with his production. He’s fourth in the country in DBPM (7.2) while boasting a 6.2 STL% and 3.8 BLK%. Add in his rebounding and offensive feel, and he’s producing at a clip you don’t see too often at the high major level.
That’s a quirky group right year. Matthews will leave school as the oldest on the list by quite a margin. He’s also the worst and least willing shooter there. It’s clearly not a list that guarantees future NBA success. But it is interesting to me. I think there’s a better chance that he gets a cup of coffee than people think. And while the G League isn’t the most stable development ground, one thing it is good for is getting players to launch a bunch of threes. I’d love to get Matthews in my G League program and see if there’s either a way he can improve as a shooter, or make an impact without his shot. In the meantime, he’d make life easier for his teammates thanks to his defensive output and selflessness. I’d take him on an E-10 every day of the week, and he could climb from there based on his pre-draft process output.
Quick Hits
-Michigan big man Danny Wolf (who I covered during my No Stone Unturned series this offseason; have to brag about that one) has been soaring up boards. The 7’0” junior’s unique craft as a ball screen operator has led to several of his highlights going viral this year. And while the highlights were cool, production is cooler. During the month of November, Wolf averaged 2.9 APG to 4.3 TOV. Since then, he’s course corrected, averaging 4.9 APG to 3.4 TOV. Wolf is also shooting 40.9% from three on the year. He’s no longer a secret. Also, not only is he no longer a secret, but he also keeps getting better.
-It’s also been great to see previous No Stone prospect Darrion Williams get some love. The 6’6” junior from Texas Tech is as high feel as it comes. He has an excellent sense of the defender’s momentum, allowing him to create advantages either facing up or out of a post-up. His 29.7 AST% (5.0 APG, 2.1 TOV) demonstrates his proficiency at reading defenses and delivering the right type of pass on a consistent basis. His strong frame, intellect, and timing go a long way defensively. He can stifle opponents at the point of attack by throwing his body on them and his feel enables him to make smart plays on the ball (2.8 STL%, 2.2 BLK%). Williams is also launching a career-high 3.5 threes per game. His lack of traditional athleticism will put a cap on his stock. He’s pretty ground-bound, and he can struggle to cover ground quickly. But his intelligence, grit, and well-rounded production make him a player worth considering in the late-first/early-second, should he go pro after this season.
-Arthur Kaluma is quietly in the midst of his best college season. The 6’7” Texas senior still gets people to bite on his pump fake all the time. And when he gets going downhill, his raw power makes him tough to stop. But the big difference this year has been Kaluma’s craft. He’s far more under control with the ball. And he’s not overly conservative, either. He’s showing off some footwork, rhythm, and shiftiness. His 2.0 APG matches his career high, and his 1.7 TOV are a career low. Kaluma is putting his tools to better use defensively now, with career-best steal and block rates (2.0 STL% and 3.5 BLK%). Development isn’t always linear. For a long time, onlookers awaited Kaluma putting it together, and it wasn’t happening. But I’d encourage those who moved on to circle back. Kaluma is playing the best and most well-rounded ball of his career. I think he’s way more likely to hear his name called on draft night than some may think.
-Washington’s Zoom Diallo is a prospect I’m interested in in the long term. The 6’4” freshman guard moves like a pro. He is a slick ball handler who wins with dramatic speed changes and has heaps of counters at his disposal. I love how he runs a ball screen, utilizing them in a variety of ways and making sure his defender gets run into them. He gets to the rim at a fantastic clip, taking 44% of his halfcourt shots at the basket, per Synergy. He’s a good finisher who elevates well and can finish through contact. This three-ball (23.1% from deep on low volume, but a non-disastrous 70.9% on free throws) and defensive discipline need to come along. Still, his combination of physical and mental traits makes him an enticing player worth monitoring.
-Circling back to the “margins prospects” theme of the feature, I wanted to give Oregon’s Nathan Bittle a shout. The 7’0” senior caught my attention with his work on the defensive end against Illinois and Maryland. He moves pretty well for his size and has great instincts around the rim (7.8 BLK%, 1.9 BPG). Bittle is also comfortable with the ball in his hands and is a willing three-point shooter (career 32.0% on 6.2 attempts per 100 possessions). Because he’s not a knock-down guy from deep, it’s tough to get too excited. But he’s a guy I’d be interested in getting into my G League program and seeing if the shooting could be fleshed out. If so, there could be a 3-and-D bench role for him at some point.
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