Jared McCain is Far More Than "Just" a Shooter

Jared McCain is proving to be one of the best shooters in the country, but the Duke freshman is showing there is far more to his game than that.

The margin for error with small guards is essentially nonexistent. Despite how much we may love their game, we constantly see them phased out of the NBA. The 2024 NBA Draft class is ripe with small guards who submit dazzling performances on a nightly basis, which makes their evaluation all the more frustrating. Despite some of the size concerns, it’s tough to envision some of these guards not sticking in some form or fashion as they’ve been so productive. With his dominant play of late and high school pedigree, Duke freshman Jared McCain continues to trend toward the top of that list with his lights-out shooting ability.

A few years ago, it was enough to survive in the NBA as a small guard as long as you were an elite shooter. Now, though, there has to be more to a player’s repertoire as teams are incredibly reluctant to play undersized off-ball guards. The clearest path to minutes for these undersized combo guards is to develop and emerge as more of a point guard. Easier said than done.

Calling McCain a small guard may be doing him a bit of a disservice as he’s listed at 6’3” and 197 pounds. The problem with his size is that he’s played mostly as a shooting guard this season, which likely isn’t feasible at the NBA level. As we’ve seen from previous drafts, the bulk of guards with similar measurements have stuck around because they’ve been able to harness more of a point guard role. Switching playstyles like that can be incredibly difficult, but it is a major testament to those who can achieve it. McCain has established himself as one of the elite shooters in this draft, which when combined with his pre-college sample, should provide more encouragement that he can be one of the rare exceptions who can properly evolve their game.

For starters, we must address the shooting. Thankfully, McCain is one of the most effective, efficient, and lethal off-ball shooters in this class. Per Synergy, McCain ranks in the 86th percentile on all jumpers, the 82nd in shooting off the catch, and the 74th in spot-up scoring. As just an off-ball shooter, McCain garners a ton of intrigue. With his consistent mechanics, quick release, and NBA range plus some, McCain has emerged as one of the most elite off-ball shooters in the country.

As we can see, though, McCain is more than capable of pulling up off the bounce. So far this season, McCain ranks in the 85th shooting off the dribble while shooting 39.5% from three on pull ups. He quickly gets off the floor, consistently gets to his spots, and has the strength to manipulate defenders when coming off of screens. McCain isn’t “just” an off-ball shooter, he’s a lethal shooter no matter what situation you put him in.

Shooting on its own can get McCain on an NBA roster, but it’s incredibly difficult to get serious minutes with just that skill at 6’3”. Thankfully, McCain continues to show that he’s so much more than “just a shooter.” When most college off-ball shooters get run off the line or asked to create on-ball, they are lost. It’s a really difficult skill and mindset to develop, but it’s what ends up separating those who make it in the league and those who don’t (obviously, there are always exceptions).

The bulk of McCain’s spot-up possessions (59.8%) have resulted in a shot off the catch, where he’s scoring 1.075 points per possession (PPP), while 39.3% result in some sort of drive. On those latter possessions, McCain is scoring 1.045 PPP compared to the 1.054 he’s scoring overall when spotting up. Shooting off the catch is one of McCain’s biggest strengths, but even when that’s taken away from him, the end result in points generated is almost the same.

Even though McCain doesn’t profile as a typical rim-pressure monster, he profiles as a significantly more efficient one than some of the other guards who routinely get mentioned at the top of this draft. Per Synergy, McCain has 52 total drives this season and is scoring 1.096 PPP on drives. For comparison, Isaiah Collier is at 52 and 0.769, Reed Sheppard is at 39 and 0.923, and Rob Dillingham is at 70 and 0.871 respectively. Additionally, McCain’s at-rim numbers are just as if not more impressive than that same batch of players as he’s generating 1.26 PPP at the rim while shooting 62.8%. Collier is at 1.26 and 63%, Sheppard is at 1.15 and 57.4%, and Dillingham is at 1.05 and 52.7% respectively. McCain is consistently getting billed as “just a shooter,” but the numbers and tape are constantly telling us something different.

As we can see, McCain consistently shows scoring craft that is rare for someone his age. By consistently and effectively playing off two feet, McCain ensures that he’s always under control. This approach can slow down the explosiveness and overall speed of finishes, but McCain isn’t that type of athlete anyway. Instead, McCain relies more on balance and strength, which playing off two feet amplifies, especially at 6’3”. By doing so, McCain affords himself the opportunities to adjust at the last second to avoid shot blockers, send retreating defenders flying, leverage his strength to create a more favorable window, and use his scoring touch to finish with either hand.

Despite whatever physical limitations or red flags you may want to place on McCain, he continues to show that they don’t affect his scoring in the slightest. The only nitpick to really raise with his on-ball creation is that he needs a screen. McCain’s lack of explosiveness, along with playing more of an off-ball role, has led to only nine isolation possessions this season. Conversely, McCain has run 52 possessions as the pick-and-roll ball-handler where he ranks in the 96th percentile with 1.154 PPP. Would it be great if McCain wasn’t reliant on using screens? Of course it would be. However, the NBA tends to run a plethora of pick-and-rolls so it shouldn’t be an issue.

As we navigate our way down the offensive scouting report on how to handle McCain, we start with the shooting. Well, simply run him off the line and go over screens. Easy enough. Next, we get to the gaudy at-rim and interior scoring numbers. Alright, he’s a little more difficult to contain than most shooters, so send a second defender when he attacks the paint. Mission accomplished; he’s been nullified. Not so fast, my friend (I hope you read that in Lee Corso’s voice because that’s how I wrote it).

Remember at the start when I mentioned how these combo guards like McCain who make it in the NBA tend to eventually skew more towards being a point guard? Well, that outcome feels feasible for McCain. McCain has played as a shooting guard for most of this season, but that doesn’t feel like it’s because McCain is a bad passer. Instead, it’s because he’s so effective off-ball that it makes more sense to give more of the point guard reps to Tyrese Proctor, Jeremy Roach, and Caleb Foster.

Before you get all hot and bothered about McCain’s passing numbers, I’ll freely acknowledge that they aren’t earth-shattering. Averaging 1.8 assists with an assist rate of 10.6 doesn’t really scream: “here’s a point guard.” Again, this is where context always matters because when you play mostly off-ball, it’s harder to get assists.

Even in his limited playmaking spots, McCain has shown impressive flashes. Here, McCain leverages his off-ball scoring role to create an open three for a teammate. As he curls off the screen, McCain attacks the empty paint and draws four defenders. Despite being surrounded, McCain calmly comes to a jump stop, maintains his composure under pressure, and delivers a great kick out for an open corner three.

This time, McCain again runs off a screen but resets to initiate the pick-and-roll. As McCain comes off the screen, he veers back to initiate contact with his man and further engage the drop defender. By not allowing the drop defender to retreat to Kyle Filipowski, McCain is forcing the weak side defender to leave Proctor and tag Filipowski. McCain reads this and makes a perfect jump pass to set up a three that doesn’t fall.

Again, McCain shows his composure on the ball and ability to subtly manipulate a defense. As they run an empty corner pick-and-roll, the defense frantically scrambles to try and contain Filipowski rolling into unoccupied space. McCain spots the rotation early and notices that the weak side defenders aren’t on the same page. McCain takes an extra dribble to drag out the drop defender, stares down Filipowski to freeze the help defender’s rotation, and delivers a perfect no-look live-dribble pass that leads to a foul.

What’s even more encouraging, though, is that McCain has a track record of being a sublime playmaker. In high school, McCain was on the ball a lot more and still showed fantastic passing instincts. He reads the weak side consistently, knows where his teammates are, and is very accurate. Regardless of the situation he’s been in in recent years, McCain has consistently proven that he’s adept at creating open looks for his teammates.

The main selling point with Jared McCain is his offense. Given his gaudy shooting numbers, it would be easy to simply classify him as a shooter. While that isn’t wrong, it is ignoring and doing a disservice to everything else he does on offense. Yes, McCain is a lethal shooter both on and off ball, but he’s also an effective driver, crafty finisher, creative playmaker, and accurate passer. He’s capable of knocking down stepback threes but also of executing off-hand extension finishes over shot blockers at the rim. The Duke freshman consistently shows us that he plays a lot bigger than 6’3” and does infinitely more than “just” shoot the cover off the ball.

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