King of the Castle: Why Stephon Castle Could be the Best Player from the 2024 NBA Draft

Stephon Castle is an elite defender with legitimate offensive creation upside. The only question is, will he be able to shoot

The 2024 NBA Draft is so fascinating because it doesn’t have those one or two names that are unanimously viewed as the top prospect. Instead, there are the same five to ten names that you’ll see on nearly every board, but there can be a cogent argument for almost any of them at the top. The goal is to always get the best player, but in a class with so much variance, having a really reliable floor may be the tiebreaker. While Stephon Castle has one of the highest floors of players mentioned at the top of this draft, he also has a really good shot at being the best player.

The narrative surrounding Castle all season has been one of the more interesting amongst this entire draft class. The major focus whenever Castle is mentioned is almost exclusively on what he can’t do instead of what he can do. While other prospects routinely get talked about in terms of what they could grow into, the conversation around Castle almost always immediately devolves into “well, he can’t shoot.” It’s a valid concern, and we’ll get to it, but instead of that, I want to focus on the very long list of things that Castle does at a high level.

In high school, Castle was his team’s offensive engine. Whether you want to classify him as a point guard or a point forward or on-ball creator or whatever, I don’t really care. The point is that the ball was in his hands, and he was the decision-maker. Typically, we tend to see players struggle when they move up a level and have to play a new role. Not only did Castle not struggle, but he also thrived as he played more as a defensive stopper and off-ball wing on offense with UConn.

Over the last two years, we’ve seen Castle act as a defensive stopper, an off-ball scorer, a primary facilitator, and an on-ball scorer. Castle proving that he can thrive in a myriad of these roles makes his translation to the NBA all the more encouraging. Castle has been adamant that he’s a point guard and wants to play point guard in the NBA, but that role can come in a myriad of forms. After measuring in at 6’5.5” and 201 pounds with a 6’9” wingspan, there are a lot of different ways that Castle can be deployed while still being heavily involved in the offensive creation and defensive identity.

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While Castle has immense upside on the offensive end, it was his defense that was the biggest surprise this season. Simply put, Castle was one of the best perimeter defenders in the country this season. When Castle was on the court, UConn had a defensive rating of 95.5 (98th percentile) compared to 101.5 when he was off, per CBB Analytics. That -6.0-differential ranked in the 80th percentile.

I know, your initial thought is: “well, duh, he got to play with Donovan Clingan, who was a dominant defensive center.” That thought process is incredibly fair, but it also does a disservice to Castle’s dominance. Basketball is a team sport but let’s just focus on how those two affected UConn’s defense all season. In the 757 possessions that Castle and Clingan shared the floor, UConn had a defensive rating of 89.5 (99th percentile). In the 715 possessions that Castle played without Clingan on the floor, UConn’s defensive rating jumped to 102.3 (80th percentile). That’s still a terrific rating, but it is a substantial drop off. So, clearly Clingan was the determining factor for UConn’s defense, right? Well, not exactly. In the 521 possessions that Clingan played without Castle on the floor, UConn’s defensive rating was 101.8 (83rd percentile). Whenever one played without the other, UConn still had a stifling defense, but they experienced a similar drop off. What Clingan meant to UConn’s interior defense is eerily similar to what Castle meant to their perimeter defense.

As a defensive playmaker, Castle’s numbers were encouraging as he had a steal rate of 1.8 (45th percentile), a block rate of 2.0 (90th percentile) and a Hakeem percentage (block plus steal) of 3.9 (79th percentile), per CBB Analytics. Castle doesn’t gamble much, which makes sense as to why his steal rate is lower than his block rate. Instead, Castle utilizes his footwork, positional size, and strength to consistently disrupt ball handlers, force turnovers, and block shots. What makes Castle’s defensive playmaking even more impactful is how quickly he can turn it into transition offense either using his size to attack the rim or playmaking vision to set up teammates.

Castle is a quality defensive playmaker, but that’s only a tiny fraction of where his defensive impact resides. His dominance comes from being a suffocating on-ball defender and making every possession a nightmare for his opponent. With his combination of size and strength, it is incredibly difficult for opposing guards to separate from him. Castle has impeccable footwork, which allows him to cut off drives and react to sudden changes in direction, and he has the strength to absorb contact around the rim and bump ball handlers off their spot on drives. Even when a screen comes, there were few better in the country at navigating them. Castle consistently changes up his pursuit angles, changes his positioning to nullify the screener, and has the pursuit capabilities to recover on the rare occasions he does get screened. Per Synergy, Castle ranked in the 94th percentile defending the pick-and-roll ball handler, the 69th percentile defending handoffs, and the 80th percentile defending in isolation. Throughout the playoffs, we’ve seen the importance of having elite screen navigation at the point of attack on defense, and Castle fits right in with that crowd.

What makes Castle such a special defender, though, is that he consistently puts it all together with his team defense and on-ball defense on every possession. Here, Castle is initially guarding his man on the left wing. As his assignment circles through the lane to the opposite corner, Castle recognizes that DePaul’s motion is to just set up an empty corner pick-and-roll. Instead of blindly following his man to the corner, Castle stays in the lane to tag the roller and take away the dunk. As the ball handler kills his dribble and kicks it to Castle’s man in the corner, Castle immediately closes out under control. His footwork ensures that he’s balanced and able to react to the bounty of dribble moves. Castle absorbs multiple shoulders and doesn’t allow his man to get a sliver of separation. The prayer of a floater ends up going in, but this is essentially perfect defense by Castle.

Castle consistently makes life easier for his teammates on defense. They can always rely on him being in the right spot and executing his defensive responsibilities. They don’t have to worry about him ball-watching or closing out sloppily. On a nightly basis, Castle combined his stellar fundamentals, physical tools, and IQ to be one of the most devastating defenders in the country.

Being an elite defender is enough to get any coaching staff excited. While it also provides a really strong baseline for a player’s floor, it still isn’t enough to be considered the best player in a draft class. There still needs to be a lot of offensive output. While Castle’s offense is still viewed in more of a speculative light, there is a ton to get excited about.

As the season went on, Castle earned more on-ball reps, but most of his season was spent playing more of an off-ball role. One area where Castle thrived was running in transition as he scored 1.264 points per possession (PPP) (81st percentile). Castle showed a lot of versatility in these situations as well. He did a terrific job of filling his lane to finish lobs or passes through traffic. He also showcased the ability to finish through contact, with finesse, and at different angles.

Another area where Castle showed significant growth as an off-ball player was with his cutting. According to Synergy, Castle had only recorded 39 total cuts combined throughout his previous two seasons (47 games) with Atlanta Xpress and Newton High School. This season, Castle recorded 41 cuts and scored 1.171 PPP (47th percentile) on them. The scoring figure there isn’t outlandish, but the increase in volume and the diversity of Castle’s cuts is what’s so encouraging. We typically see young players become stagnant when they are transitioned into more of an off-ball role than on-ball, but that was never an issue with Castle. He does a great job of countering his defender’s eye line, finding open pockets, and keeping his head up to create for others when the defense rotates. It’s another area where he’s able to utilize his strength and passing instincts, even if he’s being used as the roll man.

The devastating upside with Castle, though, comes with his on-ball creation. I’m not all that interested in whether or not he plays as a “point guard” in the NBA because offensive creation can come from any position now. Whether he’s classified as a point guard or a wing creator or whatever, Castle should be one of the lead decision-makers on his team.

This season, Castle ranked in the 74th percentile scoring as the pick-and-roll ball handler and the 77th percentile when you include his playmaking. Despite not being a shooting threat, Castle was still a near-elite pick-and-roll scorer. His first advantage is his positional size. This will diminish some at the next level, but it doesn’t detract from how well he uses his size and strength in traffic. Castle was tremendous at putting defenders in jail, finishing through contact, and using his strength to shrug them off to create a better window. Additionally, Castle showed a ton of versatility in how he got to his spots as he was rarely flustered by defensive pressure. Castle has the ability to explode out of a hang dribble, patiently snake his way through the lane, execute difficult deceleration Euro steps, and hit defenders with lightning-quick spins. Castle’s combination of strength, balance, footwork, and explosiveness in short distances is eerily similar to what we’ve seen from guys like Jimmy Butler and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. They don’t need a ton of space; they explode through traffic by getting low and mastering change of pace, and they do it all without a lethal outside shot.

None of this is new either. In fact, we only saw a smattering of Castle’s shot creation arsenal while he was at UConn. Throughout high school, Castle has shown a preternatural ability to get to his spots in a myriad of ways. He has a unique way of blending strength and finesse that takes most young guards a long time to figure out. With Castle, though, he’s been doing it for years.

Like his scoring, we only saw glimpses of what Castle is capable of in terms of playmaking while he was at UConn. Castle wanted to be challenged and to win, which is why he chose UConn even though the ball was largely going to be taken out of his hands. Usurping the entrenched national champion point guard in Tristen Newton was unlikely, and Cam Spencer had years of experience on Castle. Castle getting pure point guard responsibilities was always an unlikely scenario. Despite the odds, though, Castle continued to earn more on-ball reps and the numbers backed up the decision as he generated 1.287 PPP (88th percentile) when you factor in his assists.

Despite the effectiveness, Castle’s playmaking continues to get slept on because it isn’t overtly flashy. Instead, there’s a ton of subtlety to it like in his shot creation. Here, Castle quickly pushes in transition and gets deep in the midrange as no one picks him up. As he continues to probe, he draws the attention of Ryan Kalkbrenner and Trey Alexander, both of whom are uncertain about who is taking Castle. Instead of rushing a shot, Castle takes an extra dribble away towards the corner, which pulls both Alexander and Kalkbrenner out of the paint. At the same time, Castle is reading the weak side defender to confirm that the paint is unoccupied. The second that Clingan slips to the rim, Castle tosses a perfect lob for the dunk.

This time, Castle runs an empty corner pick-and-roll and gets blitzed while the low man does a great job of rotating to the paint from the opposite corner. Instead of setting his teammate up to fail on the roll, Castle kills the pass and quickly rescans the floor. Castle knows that the low man rotated from the corner, so his teammate should be open. Additionally, he knows that Alex Karaban is about to cut to the paint to set a screen. This action impedes Karaban’s man because he is worried about the cut and also the low man who now can’t recover to the corner shooter. Castle quickly processes it all and sets up his teammate for the corner three.

Even when he’s not the primary creator, Castle’s playmaking elevates the entire offensive flow. Here, Castle quickly attacks the space afforded to him after his defender misses the gamble. As he drives, the defense rotates. Castle knows that his man is out of the play and that they have a 3v2 numbers advantage in the strong side corner. As the defender steps up, he kills his dribble and patiently waits to see how it unfolds. Castle knows that his initial defender will be scrambling to get back in the play, so the safer bet is to set up the cutting Karaban at the rim. To do so, Castle stares down Spencer in the corner, which gets the help defender to take a step in that direction. From there, Castle has enough of a window to feed Karaban for the eventual layup.

Even in high school, Castle’s playmaking wasn’t necessarily that of a “traditional” point guard. However, it was emblematic of a high-quality decision-maker. He’s always been terrific at staying patient and making the right decision based on what the defense does. If you run with him in transition, he’ll set you up at the rim. If the defense collapses on him, he’ll dump it off for a dunk or kick it out for an open three.

Alright, enough is enough; let’s talk about the shooting. Simply put, it’s not good. If you’re a Castle skeptic and don’t believe in it, I get it. It’s a valid concern that has a lot of less-than-ideal numbers to support it. This season, Castle shot just 26.7% on 2.2 threes per game. He ranked in the 28th percentile in spot-up scoring, the 19th percentile on all jumpers, the 20th percentile shooting off the catch, and the 26th percentile shooting off the dribble. Not great. The weird thing, though, is that it doesn’t look that bad.

Obviously, those are all makes, so they’ll inherently look better than misses. The point is more so that his form looks far from broken. There are some inconsistencies with his lower body and the fluidity of everything, but nothing feels like it needs to be overhauled. Even in high school, Castle wasn’t an outstanding shooter, but the difficulty and diversity of shots didn’t suggest that his shot would forever be an issue.

While Castle is far from a shooter right now, I really struggle to believe that he’ll always be an issue from there. When we look at historical precedence, it’s incredibly rare for players of Castle’s size and caliber to simply never improve as a shooter. When we look at lottery picks who were 6’7” or shorter and shot 30% or less from three as a freshman, it’s an encouraging list.

For comparison, this is where Castle graded out in the same categories.

Of the players on that list, the only ones who didn’t have a career three-point percentage over 32% are Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Ja Morant, Romeo Langford, DeMar DeRozan, and Elfrid Payton. It’s certainly possible for Castle to fall into that group as a non-shooter, but even Castle’s indicators are better as he shot better from the line than all but Morant, and he had a higher volume per 100 possessions than all but Langford.

None of this is to say that Castle is going to turn into Steph Curry. He probably isn’t. However, I don’t think he needs to. If he can knock down a couple of threes per game at around a 35% mark, it will be more than enough to open up everything else for him on offense. Among the entire group, Castle ranks middle of the road in volume, above average from the free throw line, and towards the top in two-point percentage, all of which are solid shooting indicators. So, if nearly everyone on that list can improve in some form or fashion as a shooter, then why can’t Castle?

Castle’s combination of defense, scoring versatility, playmaking, feel, and physical tools are incredibly tantalizing. If he shoots it at even a respectable level, there is a path for him to grow into a Jimmy Butler or Shai Gilgeous-Alexander type of player. I know that’s a really lofty bar, and I’m not saying it’ll be a one-for-one comp, but stylistically that is who he should be watching. Even if the shot never comes around to where we hope it will, Castle impacts the game in so many different ways that it’d be shocking if he didn’t work out at all.

When we look at the 2024 NBA Draft, there isn’t a clear-cut All-Star among the group. As history tells us, though, at least one will emerge. My money is on Stephon Castle.