KJ Simpson: Buckets Wet like Aquafina

KJ Simpson sprung his way into more draft conversations this season ultimately due to his impressive junior year shooting leap, but there’s a lot more to his game that garners a first round look.

May 17, 2024

While on YouTube this past week, I found myself getting lost in scrolling through basketball and “Day in the Life” videos (they are so addicting lol), and the next thing I knew, I was on the PAC-12 Network’s YouTube channel and their recommended video is none other than "A Day in the Life of Colorado’s KJ Simpson." Weird, right?

While Simpson is putting up shots at practice in the video, he would say “Aquafina” every time he shot the basketball—most players say “Splash,” “Boom,” and my personal favorite “Cash” when they’re shooting, so hearing “Aquafina” instead was new to me. But I loved it—hence why I decided to include KJ Simpson’s personal shooting dialect in the title of this piece. He also does shoot the basketball very well and makes a lot of buckets, so that helps too.

The Colorado Buff also did extremely well at the NBA Draft Combine this week and I would have to agree with our own Tyler Metcalf that he indeed looked like the best player on the court out there.

Simpson’s relentlessness when attacking the rim, ability to shoot it off the catch, and how effective he is at changing gears and forcing defensives to play at his pace were on full display—not to mention that he also has one of the quickest releases in the entire 2024 NBA Draft class.

THE DIVE

Freshman and Sophomore Year Combined Stats (2021-2023)

11.6 PPG
3.4 RPG
3.3 APG
44.8 2PT%
26.5 3PT%
38.7 FG%
79.4 FT%
49.2 TS%

Junior Year Stats (2023-2024)

19.7 PPG
5.8 RPG
4.9 APG
49.7 2PT%
43.4 3PT%
47.5 FG%
87.6 FT%
60.6 TS%

KJ Simpson measured at 6’0.25 (without shoes) and weighed in at 187 pounds at the NBA Draft Combine. That’s a HUGE win for not only him, but for NBA Draft Analysts, as it was a little bit up in the air if he would clock in at 6 feet without shoes. He also came in with some real girth at 187 pounds.

OFFENSE

Shooting and Shot-Creation

Now, the first two years of Simpson’s career didn’t really go as planned from an efficiency standpoint from the field and beyond-the-arc. However, his form, mechanics, touch at the rim, and free-throw percentage were always there and remained consistent (77% and 81.7%, respectively) so one could still have faith in him being a reliable shooter at some point. Well, that idea came into full fruition as KJ proved he can be that shooter his shot believers knew he could be.

This season, Simpson shot 43.4% (79/182) from three-point range and took 8.1 3PA per 100. Additionally, 50.2% of his total offensive possessions were jumpers, and his shot diet consisted mostly of long three-point attempts (71.9% of possessions) and short to < 17 feet attempts (18.8% of possessions). Only 9.2% of his jumpers came from the midrange (Medium 17 to < 3 PTS).

One thing about KJ is he’s going to punish you off the catch and off the dribble. He has an insanely fast and high release on his shot and needs no room to let it fly. Because of his tight handle and burst on the ball, Simpson can be quite the headache for defenders in isolation.

In isolation and off the dribble, KJ loves using a between-the-legs crossover to the turnaround jumper combo—especially when dealing with a switchable defense. Being switched onto a bigger, more versatile defender doesn’t seem to bother him as one would suggest with him being 6’2” (with shoes), as he’s constantly trying to take these types of matchups out to the perimeter so he can then beat them off the dribble and get to his spot. His recent matchup, when switched onto Marquette’s Oso Ighodaro, an NBA-caliber defender, was super enjoyable to watch; if you haven’t watched Colorado vs. Marquette, I highly recommend it.

KJ has some serious off-the-dribble juice. Whether it’s using a simple “pound, pound, punish method” (two same side dribbles to the pull-up), speedy and tight cross-over to a shot, or even a hesi into the behind-the-back dribble for the pull-up - Simpson has a deep “Sorting Hat” of ways he can dig into when it comes to creating a shot for himself.

Looking at his off-the-catch and spot-up possessions, one thing I specifically loved about Simpson is his basketball IQ when it comes to playing off the ball. With Simpson being an above average rebounder for a guard (5.8 RPG), he has the advantage of setting the pace in transition from the second he cleans up the glass. He has no problem giving up the ball and using his speed to run to the three-point line to knock down a shot. He’s also very patient when it comes to his timing off the ball (knowing when to push and overload to the other side of the court when a screen is set, manipulating defenders with his footwork, seeking out mismatches with his speed, and when to lift up on the perimeter for the drag jumper look)—hence why he’s able to get so many quality looks off.

He shot 43.1% and 45.5% off the catch and off spot-ups as a junior, and he also isn’t shy when it comes to knocking down contested looks (41.8 FG% off guarded catch-and-shoot possessions).

Because he is so effective on and off the ball, it makes sense that when watching the tape, he looks very comfortable coming off a variety of different screens (Ram screens, ball screens in the chute, staggers, drags, flares, etc.) to get a bucket. He also punished defenders that went under screens on him this season. As with his growth as a shooter, that came with more effective ways to use screens—and as a result of this, he shot 64.7 FG% off screens alone.

Per Synergy, Simpson ranks in the 92nd percentile off jump shot possessions (1.16 PPS), the 92nd percentile off catch-and-shoot possessions (1.28 PPS), the 91st percentile off dribble-jumper possessions (1.06 PPS), and the 91st percentile off spot-ups (1.187 PPS) this season. Whew, that’s a lot of 90s.

The eye test and analytics behind Simpson’s game definitely coincide with each other. It’s not hard to see why Simpson has been so effective shooting the basketball - he understands how to get to his spot, can manipulate defenses to play at his pace, and is a force off the dribble.

At the next level, shooting translates—and KJ Simpson can shoot. I don’t think this year was a “shooting fluke” at all. His combination of mechanics, fluidity, and shooting versatility doesn’t scream to me he will be a less than 30% three-point shooter in the NBA compared to what his first two years in college showed. From his freshman year to now, he still has moments where he rushes his shot and makes questionable reads with his shot selection. However, just in this three-year span with roughly the same shot diet, Simpson has taken strides to improve in these areas. I think it’s largely due to him having more confidence in his playing style and as a leader (reminder: not all prospects have a linear trajectory; it takes time!)

If KJ sticks to his “bread and butter” of being a knockdown shooter off-the-catch, excellent off-ball mover, and spicy shot creator, I believe he’ll have no problem finding his way as a professional basketball player.

Playmaking

KJ Simpson is a damn good playmaker. His poise and pace in the pick-and-roll, comfortability when making entry passes, hit-ahead passes, kick-out looks to his shooters, pocket/dump-off passes, and passes to cutters just look so natural to him. In the open court, Simpson can FLY. Not only does his speed allow for more floor spacing for his shooters, but his pace in transition allows for him to have more than enough time to hit his big men rim-running. A guard with the ability to make fast, decisive reads while pushing the pace is a skill set that has been shown to punish opposing transition defenses. He really makes it look as easy as making your cup of coffee in the morning with your Keuring (that basically does it for you).

Simpson posted an assist-to-turnover ratio of 2.21 (179 assists to 81 turnovers), 27.1 AST%, and 11.8 TO% at a usage rate of 26.7% this year. All of these metrics were an improvement from the previous two years, and the biggest factor of them all is how much the California native dropped his TO%. As a freshman, KJ posted a turnover rate of a whopping 22% on a fairly similar usage rate of 23.6%. Compare that to the present, and his TO% decreased by a little less than 10%. When dissecting his turnovers, most of them came from getting too sped up off the dribble, trying to thread the needle too much into tight spaces, and having a lack of ball security at times for more context. Now, with being such a speedy and twitchy type of player, sometimes having that speed comes with no reward and avoidable turnovers. This is something I’m sure Simpson is aware of and will be a key point of emphasis in his development moving forward.

One thing I specially loved when watching the playmaking film is his connection with Tristan da Silva. Simpson has played with Tristan da Silva (who is a first round lock at this point) for three years now, but the way Simpson just knows where da Silva is on the court at any given time and what he will do next before he possibly even knows is a certain type of characteristic in a point-guard that just can’t be taught. It also was very apparent that Simpson’s playmaking ability made potential lottery pick Cody Williams more comfortable on the court as well and helped open up some space for him especially when it came to taking shots on the perimeter. Simpson has proven he can play off and with other elite-caliber players and help make them shine in the process. I think NBA teams will really value this given the type of class the 2024 NBA Draft class is.

Pick-and-Roll Spice/At-the-Rim Finishing

The spice Simpson has as a pick-and-roll ball-handler will look to be a skillset of his that can also help him at the next level. He shot 38% overall as a pick-and-roll ball handler which ranked in the 71st percentile (Very Good) this season, and he spent a vast amount of his possessions as the ball-handler in the high pick-and-roll (71.9%) compared to the right side (16.8%) and left side (11.2%). From rejecting the screen, hitting the short-roller, using the screen as a “smokescreen” to get his shot off, and having the ability to make reads while going downhill, Simpson’s versatility in the pick-and-roll really pops.

Another thing Simpson loves to do before getting into this action is that he’ll actually start the possession off the ball, and then right when the defensive collapses, he’ll relocate and call for a high ball screen for himself to go out and get a bucket. From this, he’ll either take a couple of dribbles and elevate into a long mid-range jumper or he’ll swiftly come off the screen and take it all the way to the cup. He’s constantly making the defense think, which is why he’s such a danger here.

In addition to being so crafty in the pick-and-roll and off screens in general, like I mentioned previously, KJ Simpson is also incredibly crafty at the rim. Reverse layups, off-hand finishes, coast-to-coast finishes, and give-and-go (GAGs) are just some of the “razzle-dazzle” pieces that come with Simpson’s game. I know I mentioned it quite a bit in this piece but Simpson is really great at changing gears. Just a simple stop-and-go to an additional head fake, and he finds success when it comes to faking out defenders—especially off closeouts and when he’s trying to create a direct line to score at the rim. He also has a great first step that causes that initial separation, and from this, he tends to get his defender on his back with a hostage dribble for an easy two.

More importantly, Simpson attacks the rim like he’s an NFL running back. The purpose, force, and speed he paves his way to the rim would make you think he’s way bigger than what his actual measurables say. He knows when to cut to the basket, when there’s an open lane to the rim due to the weak-side defender being out of position, how to sell a downhill attack in order to open up space for his shooters, and isn’t afraid to go right through multiple bodies in order to get a basket.

Simpson shot 58.5% (110/188) at the rim this year and also had 10 made dunks on the season. Simpson’s float game does need some fine-tuning as he only shot 29.7% off runners this season and merely 40% the year before. All undersized guards in the league have a consistent floater they can at least turn to if they’re run off the line and are forced to go up against NBA shot blockers. Even though this isn’t a reliable part of Simpson’s game yet, all shooting indicators and the feel for the game he already possesses make me think this won’t be a hard layer to his game to add.

DEFENSE

There’s no denying that KJ Simpson will be an undisputed target for offenses due to being undersized. No matter how much he tries to fight it, he can’t control it. However, the grit, intensity, and mentality he plays with on the defensive end he can control— and he already does a hell of a job at that. As long as he continues to showcase that defensive tenacity and pressure, he has the ability to be an uncomfortable matchup as a point-of-attack and off-the-ball defender in the NBA.

He is constantly making well-timed rotations off the ball, keeping his hands active, staying low and tight to the hip when navigating screens, and disrupting defenses with his speed. Simpson’s biggest assets on defense, in my opinion, are his hands and speed. He has the ability to strip the ball at the rim from bigs, pick the pocket of guards when they’re trying to go off the dribble, and do an impressive job as a help defender when it comes to intercepting passes (specifically when over-crowding and faking a double-team on the opponent’s center on the block, then returning to his matchup is where he gets a lot of his steals). Simpson has a career STL% of 2.6 and tallies 1.8 steals per 40 minutes. He also posted a career-best 60 total steals this season as well.

Overall, on all defensive possessions, opponents shot 39.2 FG% when guarded by Simpson.

Future Outlook

This draft class will put the “small guard mantra” to the ultimate test. Reed Sheppard, Rob Dillingham, Jared McCain, Isaiah Collier, Tyler Kolek, Jamal Shead, Mark Sears, Xaivian Lee, Reece Beekman, and (of course) KJ Simpson are all guards in the 2024 NBA Draft class who are 6’4” or below—yet they are on the latest No Ceilings Top 60 Consensus Big Board. When’s the last time in the modern era of the NBA that 10 prospects who are “undersized” have had draftable grades on them?

When looking at this draft class as a whole, you have to go about it with a futuristic mindset. In time, your picks will produce for you, but the likelihood of them ever being “the guy” in the NBA is very slim—and that’s okay! Instead, betting on your draft picks in this class being a second option, an incredible role player, or a seasoned veteran in the NBA is more likely. In fact, I know all of us reading this piece know loads of players who fit in that category and have had very successful NBA careers and made lots of money.

The important thing to note is that KJ understands who he is as a player and he isn’t playing the game like someone he isn’t. Being self-aware is such a valuable trait to possess, but it is easy to go unnoticed—especially when you’re looking at NBA Draft prospects. He stayed the course when it came to playing his game, and that paid off immensely for him this year.

When it comes to future projections, I think KJ Simpson has the ability to be an awesome backup point guard in the NBA. Give him time, and I see him not only controlling the second unit of a contending team but coming in off the bench and being a sparkplug for the starting rotation. With teams in the lower half of the first round and early second (Utah Jazz, Washington Wizards, Milwaukee Bucks, and San Antonio Spurs), you would be getting immense value for Simpson’s skillset here and there would be a lot of tools to work with.

I also see some shades of Fred VanVleet in his game. If he continues his shooting consistency in the league, pick-and-roll play, excellent off-ball movement, and playmaking feel, Simpson could see a lot of doors unlock when it comes to what his ceiling could look like.

Even though I do believe his shooting is in fact real, I still want to see him shoot at least 35-37% from three this upcoming year. That could be me being greedy, but I really think Simpson has it in him based on his shooting versatility and off-the-dribble creation.

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