Let's Get Excited About Noa Essengue | The Prospect Overview
Ratiopharm Ulm prospect Noa Essengue is only 17 years old, but he has all the makings of a two-way force. Maxwell outlines why he's one of the most exciting prospects in the 2025 NBA Draft.
“Ohhhh noooo,” I said to myself.
“Is everything okay in there?” My wife asked.
“…Yeah, I just…almost made a mistake,” I responded.
I was lying. The truth is, I did make a mistake. I was cooking dinner for our family. I was making this creamy spaghetti from Cooking in the Midwest. It’s a super easy pasta dish that’s convenient and low-maintenance…unless you aren’t careful. While I was seasoning the beef, I went to grab the paprika. Now, this one is on me. I am really, really bad about keeping my spices organized. Basically, all the different seasonings I use frequently (which is a lot) tend to sit out on the counter next to the stove. I grabbed a bottle with a red cap, because that’s what our paprika comes in, and poured some onto the beef. Instead of seeing a familiar bright red color, I saw brown. What I actually grabbed was cinnamon, which came in a similar-colored bottle. That was when I let out the, “ohhhh noooo,” and that was when I lied to my wife, who would 10000% have claimed she could taste the cinnamon if I’d told her I accidentally put cinnamon into our spaghetti.
Now, this could have gone a lot worse. Cinnamon and beef isn’t the worst flavor combination in the world. It’s common in other dishes. If I was cooking eggs and used cinnamon instead of paprika, that would’ve been gnarly. But it was beef, and I was early on in the process. It certainly doesn’t go with this type of pasta, but there was plenty of time to cover up for my mistake by tinkering and adjusting. I added a bunch of other seasonings, cooked the meat down, and added the sauces. By the time I was done cooking, I had a great final product. Everyone ate it, and no one noticed that anything was wrong. Heck, I even forgot about it until I needed a lead-in for this article. I spent a few minutes racking my brain trying to remember which food I’d accidentally seasoned with cinnamon instead of paprika. I could live with those flaws early because there was plenty of time to fix them with the hope of a great end product.
The reason I wanted to talk about this particular mistake, though, is how it relates to Noa Essengue. The 6’9”, 17-year-old French native is playing for Ulm in Germany this season, and he’s quickly become one of my favorite prospects in the 2025 NBA Draft. It’s easy to nitpick him. As a kid playing in a professional league, there are going to be times when he makes mistakes or finds himself physically overmatched. Still, in spite of that, Essengue has been productive. Given his age and tools, it doesn’t take a whole require a whole lot of imagination to picture him improving upon his problem areas. Just like adding a bit of the wrong seasoning at the beginning of the cooking process, there is plenty of time to adjust. There’s no need to panic or throw the baby out with the bathwater when it comes to his issues. Essengue is brimming with upside on both ends of the floor and could eventually provide significant value to an NBA team.
The Tools
Jonathan Givony reported that Essengue measured 6’10” in shoes with a 6’11” wingspan and a 9’3.25” standing reach at the Basketball Without Borders Global Camp. This likely puts Essengue around 6’8.5” or 6’9” barefoot. While his wingspan may be normal for a forward, his standing reach is closer to that of your typical center. Add in an easy one-footed leaping ability, downhill speed, and lateral agility, and there’s a lot to like about what Essengue brings to the table from a tools perspective. Obviously, basketball is also a game of feel and skill, and we’ll get to that in a second. But to overlook the gifts Essengue has would be a disservice. We know that prospects in the 6’7” to 6’9” range have a higher hit rate and lower whiff rate than their peers. Simply put, it’s easier to avoid being a negative value player when you’re bigger. Think about two Portsmouth standouts in 2022, Toumani Camara and Craig Porter Jr. Relative to their positions, both were disruptive defenders, potent athletes, good rebounders, and decent shooters. Porter was the better decision-maker of the two. In the NBA, Toumani Camara has carved out a much more consistent role and would command much more value in a trade. The two may have looked “even” on paper, but size matters. Craig Porter is 6’1” and 180 pounds. Toumani Camara is 6’7” and 229 pounds.
The one area where Essengue is behind the curve physically is his weight. At that same camp, he weighed in at 198 pounds. If you dropped him into the NBA tomorrow, he’d be in the bottom 13% of the league, weight-wise, based on players who have appeared in a game this season. This issue shows up on tape pretty frequently. If he does enter the draft this year, it could impact the immediate results he’s able to produce on an NBA floor. But again, remember—this is cinnamon at the beginning of the recipe. He’s not even an adult! I’m confident that Essengue will be able to fill out his frame and improve his strength in time.
Offense
One of the first questions I always like to ask about a prospect is how they will score in the NBA. As of now, Noa Essengue is most efficient in transition. He ranks in the 78th percentile among international pros as a transition scorer, per Synergy, posting a 73.7 eFG% on those attempts. Essengue has great end-to-end speed, and he has the bounce to finish above the rim. In the NBA, and particularly when the game slows down in the playoffs, he will need to tailor his game more to a halfcourt setting. The good news is that these skills have functional utility there as well.
While Essengue may be thin, he’s far from averse to contact. He sets better screens than one might expect, given his frame. Additionally, he won’t shy away from bodies at the rim. He’s a foul magnet, taking 5.8 free throw attempts per game, giving him an astounding FTR of .892. When he rolls to the basket, he gets there in a hurry and can function as a lob target. Off the ball, his cutting instincts are sharp. Whether he’s charging in from the corner, asking for a pass out of the dunker spot, or flying in from a 45-degree angle, Essengue can identify holes in the defense and get easy scoring opportunities as a result. Make no mistake about it—right now, his bread is buttered by rim running in transition. But Essengue’s timing, cutting instincts, and willingness to embrace contact give him the foundation to become a positive halfcourt player, too.
As I said earlier, though, his skinny frame does put some limitations on him in the present moment. Currently, Essengue struggles to finish efficiently in the halfcourt. The sample size we’re working with is still quite small, but per Synergy, he’s only converted 44.4% of his halfcourt rim attempts. Even worse, he’s gone 6-of-20 on non-dunks at the basket in that setting. Watching through these attempts, there are two primary reasons why Essengue struggles inside. The first is simply that he gets physically overwhelmed by contact. Right now, he has a hard time keeping his coordination and touch when he’s met by another body on the interior. The second issue is that Essengue struggles with his momentum. If he’s attacking the basket at a high speed, he doesn’t look to decelerate, gather, or get himself under control. Instead, he often continues toward the basket at a potent velocity, and he can smoke layups as a result.
Again, though—this is cinnamon at the beginning of a recipe. It’s actually quite common for bouncy, athletic prospects to struggle with their rim touch during their pre-draft seasons. Jaylen Brown, Amen Thompson, and Peyton Watson are prime examples. The issues Essengue is facing can be improved by adding weight and developing a greater level of poise. Those are two of the easiest things you can ask of a 17-year-old prospect playing in a professional league. Essengue isn’t struggling because he can’t jump or he’s too small, it’s because he needs to keep growing into his frame and get more reps in, both of which are absolutely doable. I’m optimistic about where he’ll end up as a halfcourt finisher.
Three-point shooting is more important than ever before. For Essengue, the results at the moment aren’t great, but there’s reason for optimism. His mechanics tend to be consistent across his attempts, shooting off the top of his head with his right foot out a bit in front of his left. He’s pretty confident in this shot, too. Essengue is taking around 3.0 attempts per 40 minutes, so he’s not afraid to shoot. He’ll take it in the face of a closeout without altering his motion. Additionally, he’s shown a willingness to take no-dip threes, keeping the ball high off the catch and keeping it up before launching.
The efficiency is still lagging behind, though. Essengue is 8-for-25 across all leagues this season. Going through his 16 catch-and-shoot misses on Synergy, five of them were “bad” misses. He often tends to miss long, leading to the occasional backboard brick or airball. Given that he’s a 67.9% free throw shooter on the year, it’s also hard to buy into an imminent turnaround.
Still, I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again—this is cinnamon at the beginning of the recipe. When you contextualize Essengue as a 6’9”-ish 17-year-old, those numbers become far more palatable. Additionally, he’s on an upward improvement trajectory as a shooter. Let’s take a look at how Essengue has shot the ball across pro leagues over the past three seasons:
2022-2023: 16.9% 3FG, 49.6% FT
2023-2024: 25.4% 3FG, 58.7% FT
2024-2025: 32.0% 3FG, 67.9% FT
Look, I get it. The samples are small. But Essengue does appear to be headed in the right direction. His willingness to shoot has been there, and he’s seen a marginal tick up in his attempt rate. This is around the age where we tend to see players get it together as shooters, and Essengue is in the ball game. It might take him some time to become consistent and efficient, but I wouldn’t write it off as a possibility.
But let’s play a game. Let’s say Essengue never gets there as a shooter. Let’s pretend he’s either a subpar three-point shooter or a lower volume three-point shooter. In my column about the path to providing starter value as a subpar shooter, I came across a few commonalities in players who can make it work without being a potent long-distance threat. Generally speaking, they tend to be plus-athletes with positional size and feel who can impact the game in a variety of ways. Noa Essengue could be one of those dudes.
Based on my analysis of the last eight years, the median college forward prospect who sticks in the NBA had an assist-to-turnover mark of around 1.06:1 during their pre-draft season. Essengue’s context is different, as he’s playing in a pro league as a 17-year-old rather than in college. Still, through 13 games, he’s at 1:1. During the seven FIBA U18 games he played this past off-season, he was at 1.04:1. When you factor in his age and tools, that becomes all the more interesting. He’s grading out in the middle 20% of prospects who stick in the NBA on that front, and that group includes guys who spent four years in college. From a decision-making standpoint, Essengue is in a great spot.
Digging into the tape, I’m not just interested, I’m excited. Essengue does the simple things well. He keeps the ball humming and can make quick, hot potato skip passes to the next man. He’s also not a dude who is going to put the ball on the deck for no reason or dribble the air out of the ball. He knows how to play within the context of the offense. What distinguishes Essengue from many of his peers, though, is how he finds different ways to win possessions for his team as a passer. He’s not Kyle Anderson, but he is a genuinely good floor mapper. When the ball gets dumped off to him after a screen, he knows where defenders are, and his eyes are up for open teammates. Other times, he displays more poise than he does as a driver, slowing himself down and ensuring he’s sending the ball to the right person. He’s also displayed a fluid decision-making process downhill at times, reacting to help and rewarding open teammates. There are plenty of young, athletic prospects with great athletic gifts who never end up panning out. Often, it’s because they lack ball skills and can’t make quick decisions. Essengue is already showing himself to be on the right side of that equation.
Defense
I want to lead with the negatives here, mostly because I want to get them out of the way and talk about all the cool stuff Noa Essengue brings to the table. Essengue does have flaws on defense, and they’re common ones for a prospect his age. He can get lost off the ball at times. You’ll see teammates pointing things out to him at times when he’s out of position. There will also be times when his poor positioning prevents him from making critical rotations in a timely manner. His recognition can be a hair slow at times. His lack of size bites him at times, too. Bigger opponents can knock him around, and stronger wings can drive through him. Again, though—he’s 17 and playing real rotation minutes for a good team. There are going to be bumps in the road. Plus, he has the potential to be a force both on and off the ball.
Essengue shows a lot of promise on the perimeter. He’s consistently light on his feet. This enables him to cover smaller players and be ready when he needs to switch. When he’s on an island, he’ll occasionally use his combination of footspeed and overwhelming length to smother opponents. But even when he plays further back, his hand speed, reaction time, and easy lift allow him to get off the floor and deliver potent contests against jump shots. When opponents test him laterally, he does a nice job of staying in his stance and making himself as big as possible. It’s tough to generate space against him. Many opponents struggle to get around him, and his length can take away playing east-west or stepping back as effective options. On the interior, he still plays with toughness and determination despite his lack of size. He fights for his spot in the post, and more often than not, he manages to hold his own. As he continues to add strength, he should be able to cover a variety of player types effectively.
In the meantime, Essengue has proven himself to be a rock-solid defensive playmaker. There are going to be lapses early in his development, but it’s important to consider that he has ways to make up for them. His DRB% of 18.3, BLK% of 2.9, and STL% of 2.1 all grade out well. His north-south burst and quickness allow him to cover ground well before making plays on the ball. He can help around the basket, leaping high off the floor and pin-pointing blocks if a teammate gets beat. Essengue can also use his length to get into passing lanes for steals and deflections. This defensive playmaking capacity, paired with his effectiveness in transition, should also lead to easy scoring opportunities in the other direction. As Essengue develops more polish and gains more experience, he will only grow into more of a threat on this side of the ball.
Conclusion
If you throw on a random Ulm game, your Noa Essengue experience may vary. Sometimes, he might look like a world-beating, two-way force. On other days, well, he’ll look like a raw 17-year-old playing in a professional basketball league. If Essengue does indeed enter the 2025 NBA Draft, he may not be ready to play a big role out of the gate. He has to get stronger, he needs to improve his jump shot, his finishing has to come along, and his off-ball defense will have to tighten up.
Still, I’m absolutely enamored with him as a prospect at this stage in the process. We know how important size and athleticism are when it comes to sticking around in the modern NBA, and Essengue has both of those. Additionally, the flashes that he’s shown as a passer and the improvement he has been making as a shooter should raise eyebrows. At worst, I see Essengue as a student of The Dalano Banton School of Playability. When guys have a certain blend of length, tools, and feel, they tend to hang around the league. Even if they aren’t net positives, they won’t cause as much bleeding as alternative player types on their off nights.
But there’s a real chance Essengue could be so much more than that. What makes him so interesting is how many boxes he’s managing to check as such a young player in a good pro league. He’s only going to get stronger and more polished as he accumulates more reps on the floor. Given how many ways he can impact the game, I see him as presenting a safer floor than he’s given credit for. Additionally, if he can continue to add to his skill set, which we’ve seen him do in recent years, he could be a tremendously valuable NBA player on both ends of the floor. Teams have been hastier than ever with draft prospects who don’t have much to offer out of the gate. One could argue that the league’s demand for quick on-court results could damper his value. Conversely, I would say that Essengue’s archetype is worthy of patience and developmental attention. Heck, look at the steps Bilal Coulibaly has taken in his second NBA season. These types of players don’t grow on trees, and when they pan out, they’re difficult to acquire. I know we’re early in the draft cycle but come on. Let’s get excited about Noa Essengue. He’s showing a lot now, and if he keeps it up, we’re going to see a whole lot more in the future.
Quick Hits
-It was awesome to see Tre Johnson come out of the gate hot. The 6’6” freshman guard from Texas faced a tough test in his first college game. Rather than competing against D-III program The Southwest Illinois College for Mining and Nursing, he had to take on high-major Ohio State. Still, Johnson looked right at home. He used his slick handle to create separation. His jumper looked smooth and confident whether he was pulling up, shooting off the catch, or moving into his shot. Add in his quick recognition of help as passer, and there’s a clear NBA role for him on offense. Defensively, he used his body well and displayed good timing. A strong follow-up performance against Houston Christian only adds to the excitement. Johnson’s shot selection and finishing in traffic will be worth monitoring, as they’ve been an issue for him in the past. Given how often freshmen can come out of the gate and underwhelm, it was great to see Johnson immediately solidify himself as a legitimate high-end prospect.
-During the pre-season, I was the biggest Kon Knueppel skeptic in our collective, and I owe that man a public apology. The 6’7” Duke freshman can hoop, plain and simple. Obviously, he’s a great shooter who is unbothered by closeouts and has parking lot range. But I was impressed by how under control, tough, and balanced he was inside the arc against Maine. He has a tremendous understanding of his gravity and he’s quick to leverage it with pump fakes to create advantages and timely passes to punish help defenders. I’m still curious to see how he’ll look defensively later in the year, and I’m interested to see how his rim pressure stacks up down the stretch. Additionally, I’m dubious about his listed height. But so far, it all looks more scalable than I’d given him credit for, and he’s earned this apology.
-Asa Newell came through big for Georgia in their opener. Tennessee Tech was feisty and kept it close, but Newell’s 26 points, 11 rebounds, and three blocks were critical for the Bulldogs. While his three-ball didn’t go (he left three of his four missed triples short), he was comfortable getting up attempts. He looked great as an off-ball player, knowing how to cut and showing impressive timing on the offensive glass. He also showed better fluidity downhill than I expected. Defensively, his motor and instincts shined. One thing I’m interested to see is how comfortable he’ll be finishing with his right hand. He really leaned into his left around the basket a few times when I thought finishing right would’ve been an easier move.
-I thought Florida sophomore Alex Condon looked stellar against Jacksonville. The 6’10” Australia is one of my favorite types of prospects—a tall, athletic dude who can produce across the board, but has some wild tendencies he needs to reel in. Defensively, he uses his size well to guard up and down the lineup. His off-ball playmaking and ground coverage are exciting. He’s also a good defensive rebounder who can lead the break going the other way. Offensively, his ball skills are of great appeal. At his best, he can see the floor and whip sharp passes to open teammates. Condon is also a confident ball handler with good quickness capable of burning opposing bigs off the bounce. Additionally, he’s not afraid to shoot. As a result, there’s some awesome DHO orchestration upside. Last year, Condon was out of control at times and turned it over more than I would have liked. In the Jacksonville game, he looked so much more poised. The game seems to have slowed down for him. There’s a chance he takes a big leap this season. If he does, Condon should be a first-round guy given his potential two-way impact.
-I thought the most underrated debut came from 6’4” Alabama guard Labaron Philon. He posted nine assists against UNC Asheville. Philon has quick recognition out of ball screens and sees the floor well when getting into the paint. He was under control with his handle, oscillating speeds to maximize advantages and throw off defenders. He also grabbed three steals and two blocks thanks to his timing and intensity. Lastly, I thought his body language and motor were stellar. He simultaneously looked like a dude you could go to war with and someone who was having the time of his life. I’m a fan.
-It was a joy to see No Stone Unturned big man Danny Wolf go to work during his first game in a Michigan uniform. He ended the outing against Cleveland State with 19 points, 13 rebounds, three steals, and three blocks. The 7’0” junior looked much leaner here than he did at Yale. He hit one of his trademark three-pointers. He used his gravity as a shooter to run 4-5 pick-and-rolls with Vlad Goldin. Wolf twice rejected ball screens to create advantages, and also slung a long, cross-court pass on another. There aren’t many big men who have the ball skills that Wolf is bringing to the table. On defense, I thought he held up better in space, but I still worry about how functional of a rim protector he is going to be. Regardless, Wolf looks to have crossed the threshold from “potential NBA prospect” to “NBA prospect” this offseason.
-6’9” Nevada forward Kobe Sanders made waves in sicko circles with a 27-point, six-rebound, four-assist debut. The senior used his handle and frame to get to his spots inside and he finished with coordination at the cup. He’s great at using speed changes to freeze defenses, and he always has his eyes up for teammates. Defensively, his size goes a long way at the point of attack, making him difficult to get around. Sanders has always been more “okay” than “reliable” from deep. On defense, his balance was all over rotationally, and it felt like he was tipping or leaning any time he had to change directions. It’s tough to know how much to make of his statistical priors, as he was previously the “do everything” guy for an awful Cal Poly team in his only high-usage season. Sanders’ combination of size, skill, and feel is worth monitoring. If Sanders can pass, rebounds, and score efficiently enough in the Mountain West, he should be in the Portsmouth mix at worst.
-Evansville may have found another gem in 6’7” freshman Gabriel Pozzato, who dropped 28 points on North Texas. Pozzato has a super functional jump shot. He’s confident from well behind the college line and looks great off movement. Chase him off the line, and he’s still got some juice to him. His crossover has a real snap on it, he’s got a good first step, and he can get up off one foot to finish above the rim. His arms look long, and he used that to his advantage on defense. He can slide well and he looked flexible navigating screens. The two things that worry me are his strength and offensive feel. He’s a slender and easy to knock around, and he didn’t look to do much other than score. Still, he’s young, long, and appears to have a multi-level scoring game at his disposal. He’ll be on my radar if he keeps it up.
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