Magic 8 Ballers: Tuck EverBlasting
After leading the Bulldogs to the NCAA Tournament in back-to-back years alongside his father, what's the next step for Drake's Tucker DeVries?
“Do not fear death, but rather the unlived life. You don't have to live forever. You just have to live.” - Natalie Babbitt, Tuck Everlasting
The decision to enter the NBA Draft, especially in the modern college basketball era, has never been more complicated. No longer is it a binary choice to stay in college or enter the draft and forgo eligibility; with the emergence of NIL and the transfer portal, many alternate options have splintered the decision-making process.
That still doesn’t mean that there’s a sweet spot to entering the draft for each player based on the volatility of their draft stock. Stars at smaller schools must weigh whether they’ve done enough to justify getting drafted, need to grind another year at their respective college, or need to jump to a bigger pond.
It’s rare to see a one-and-done player outside of the power conference structure, which leads to older stars crashing the draft party after a successful stint at their schools. Becoming a local legend can sometimes be just the first step towards NBA stardom, as evidenced by Damian Lillard, Paul George, and a handful of other stars.
However, stars at the mid-major level who stick at the NBA level tend to pare down their games to become skilled roleplayers. It takes swallowing an ego and reducing one's role, but it’s often the only path available once the hometown magic has run out.
This year’s draft class has several mid-major magicians vying for an NBA spot. Dillon Jones and DaRon Holmes II are both in the Top 30 of the most recent No Ceilings BIG Board, with Nique Clifford, Ajay Mitchell, Adama-Alpha Bal, Jonathan Mogbo, and Xaivian Lee landing in the Top 60. With such a wide-open draft class, it’s as good as any season to be a mid-major menace.
That led me to dig into Drake’s Tucker DeVries for this edition of Magic 8 Ballers. DeVries isn’t new to the draft scene, as he’s made some murmurs over his first two years as a Bulldog. Those whispers could become a deafening roar if he follows his father, Darian DeVries, to West Virginia next season, and turns in a similar season to his junior campaign.
This year, however, could be the year that DeVries takes the plunge into the churning draft waters. Although he may not be getting the same buzz as the players mentioned above right now, there are several reasons to be bullish on DeVries working his way up draft boards as we inch closer to June.
Quick Shakes of the 8 Ball
The conversation surrounding Tucker DeVries as a prospect starts and ends with home. DeVries was a star at his hometown, Wakuee High School in Iowa, leading them to a state title and winning the Gatorade Boys Basketball Player of the Year award as a senior. He became one of the highest-rated recruits in school history when he chose to play for his father, Darian DeVries, at Drake over other schools like Iowa State and Florida.
DeVries made an instant impact for the Bulldogs as a freshman, leading the team in scoring and making the All-MVC Second Team. Over the past two years, DeVries has morphed into one of the most feared players in the Missouri Valley Conference, and for good reason. He’s the back-to-back MVC Player of the Year and back-to-back MVC Tournament Most Outstanding Player and has led Drake to the NCAA Tournament in back-to-back years for the first time since 1971.
No matter how you cut it, Tucker DeVries has been one of, if not the best, players in the MVC over the past two years. DeVries averaged 18.6 points, 5.7 rebounds, 1.8 assists, and 1.1 steals per game on 44.6/37.3/83.8 shooting splits as a sophomore. He’s taken his game up another notch as a junior, as this season, DeVries averaged 21.8 points, 6.8 rebounds, 3.6 assists, and 1.6 steals per game on almost identical efficiency.
As a mid-major star, DeVries has always been the focal point of the Bulldogs. He’s had usage rates of 25.4%, 28.6%, and 31.7% in each of his respective seasons, which speaks to the prominent offensive roles he’s occupied. In each of his three seasons, DeVries has led the team in scoring and ranked in the top three in assists. He’s simply got his hands all over Drake’s offensive and team success over the past three years.
While he’s known for his offense, specifically his shooting at his size, on the stat sheet, DeVries doesn’t look like a knockdown shooter as only a career 35.9% three-point shooter. When you peel back the layers on the onion, however, not only does DeVries look like one of the more dangerous shooters in the draft class, but he also boasts some improved skills that will help him land a long-lasting role in the NBA.
Occult Offense
It’s a joy to start on the offensive end with Tucker DeVries simply because there are so many fun angles to explore. Sure, he’s carved out his reputation on the back of his hot shooting, but he’s also a heady passer and mover without the ball in his hands. Although his off-ball opportunities were rare, he showed enough to hint at his hidden all-around game.
Let’s start with the shooting because it’s where DeVries starts and ends as a prospect. As a somewhat skinny 6’7” wing, DeVries has the size to be a proper wing at the NBA level and the shooting chops to back it up. He’s a career 35.9% shooter, which doesn’t scream knockdown, but don’t be fooled: he’s taken at least six three-pointers a game each of his three years at Drake, which gives us a massive amount of data from Synergy to sift through to show DeVries’ talent as a shooter overall.
Before diving in from deep, we’ll start with DeVries’s bread and butter in the halfcourt: the midrange jumper. DeVries has excellent balance and a high release point, which he can get to whether he’s going left, right, or spinning around. His pull-up shots come from the post when he hits the brakes on a drive or off of a crossover in isolation, but no matter how he gets to his pull-up, it’s a weapon.
It also doesn’t matter if someone contests his shot, as he shows little to no issue with a hand in his face when shooting. To get the best idea of DeVries’s midrange mastery, look at his percentages across his three college years. Per Synergy, DeVries has been a career 44.7% dribble jumper shooter, which is a significant number, and that’s been a consistent strength on film and across his entire college career.
Pull-Up Jumper Numbers
2023: 44/106 = 41.5%
2022: 36/77 = 46.7%
2021: 30/63 = 47.6%
Total: 110/246 = 44.7%
For several reasons, the art of the midrange has become such a hotly contested topic that it’s hard to parse through the smoke around it. It’s lost its luster as a shot selection, but in both playoff situations and for isolation scorers, it’s beyond essential. While few will pencil in DeVries as a future offensive focal point, it’s valuable that he can stripe it from deep and create his shot at such a high level.
So let’s get into the threes, as there have been many of them. In his college career, Tucker DeVries is 250-of-697 on three-pointers, so there’s a treasure trove of tape to sift through. When analyzing his shot, it’s worth looking at what DeVries does best and why before honing in on where he could improve as a long-range shooter.
The type of three-pointer that DeVries shot the best this year and in his career is the pull-up three. It’s become increasingly important for NBA players to not only be able to hit a spot-up three but also to knock down shots in motion, which DeVries can do with ease. Like in the midrange, he keeps his base balanced as he relocates and can launch bombs from deep and varied angles.
Pull-Up Three Numbers
2023: 37/81 = 45.6%
2022: 23/53 = 43.4%
2021: 11/37 = 29.7%
Total: 71/171 = 41.5%
I don’t expect NBA teams to give DeVries the ball and let him operate ball screens to get his pull-up threes often, but it’s a weapon they’ll undoubtedly deploy at certain junctures. With similar measurables to Duncan Robinson, it’s easy to imagine Tucker DeVries getting similar looks in an intelligent offense to take advantage of his lithe dribbling and shotmaking.
Continuing with the theme of shooting in motion, DeVries is a talented shooter off of hand-off actions. I included misses in the film because none of his misses are egregious and represent the consistency he has to dash around screens and screech to a halt.
As a career 39.9% three-point shooter off of hand-offs, it’s easy to imagine DeVries getting these types of shots in the offense's rhythm at the next level and making teams pay—special shoutout to Darnell Brodie, Drake’s massive pivot. DeVries has played with him his entire career and set him up with some sweet dimes all season for hot handoff shooting.
Hand-Off Three Numbers
2023: 21/47 = 44.6%
2022: 7/21 = 33.3%
2021: 11/31 = 35.4%
Total: 39/99 = 39.9%
Where it gets statistically spotty for DeVries starts with his spot-up threes. This is a curious case, as logically, these should be some of a player's more in-rhythm and uncovered shots, but that’s not quite the case for DeVries. He’s the focal point of the Drake offense, which leads to teams closing out on him harder than others, but that still doesn’t explain why DeVries is only a career 33.5% spot-up shooter from deep in college.
When checking the tape, there aren’t any clear answers. DeVries has a robotic shooting motion with other proven results, so it’s not mechanics. He’s often contested on his shots, but per Synergy, he shoots better on contested spot-up threes than unguarded spot-up threes (34.6% versus 26.0%).
Given his immense talent and resume, I’m not worried about DeVries as a spot-up shooter at the next level, but it is worth wondering if he’s simply a better movement shooter than a standstill. That isn’t a death knell for him, but it does represent a clear area of growth that DeVries should hone in on to uphold his reputation as a marksman from distance.
Spot-Up Three Numbers
2023: 49/155 = 31.6%
2022: 65/186 = 34.9%
2021: 62/184 = 33.6%
Total: 176/525 = 33.5%
The last category might seem contradictory, but hear me out. Of all the threes Tucker DeVries took at a high volume in college, the worst were his three-pointers off screens. This doesn’t jive with my last paragraph, where I posit that DeVries is a better movement shooter than a standstill sniper, but there’s some essential statistical noise to sift through.
Outside of handoffs, this is the smallest sample to study in all three of DeVries’s years at Drake. That leads to skewed results, as he shot an elite clip as a freshman but has seen his numbers peter off in the past two years. With less than 50 of these types of threes taken each year, I can’t make a reasonable conclusion in either direction for this area of his long-range shooting, as it also looks similarly consistent to the rest of his shot diet.
Off-Screen Three Numbers
2023: 13/43 = 30.2%
2022: 13/46 = 28.3%
2021: 14/34 = 41.2%
Total: 40/123 = 32.5%
Despite some negative numerical indicators, I finished watching Tucker DeVries with the belief he’ll be a plus-shooter at the NBA level. He is of good size, has an always-repeated shooting stroke that’s mechanically sound, and has some distinct strengths that will stretch defenses from the jump.
While it would benefit him to start hitting the most open shots he gets from three, it’s more likely that DeVries will become an excellent spot-up shooter than his movement shooting is a mirage hiding his status as a poor shooter.
It’s not just about shooting for DeVries on the offensive end. He’s had a usage rate above 25.0% his entire career, which comes from his shooting touch and his talent driving the basketball. That’s not to say that DeVries will be able to reliably create his shot against NBA defenders night in and night out, but he has more shake and spice than you’d expect from a player with a reputation for being a long-range assassin.
Per Synergy and by the film, DeVries is an excellent cutter without the basketball. This year, he was rated as “Excellent” on Synergy as a cutter due to shooting a scalding 71.4% on his cuts. By using quick hip shimmies and deliberate sprints to the basket, alongside some slick feeds from Darnell Brodie, DeVries got a ton of uncontested lay-ups off of the strength of his off-ball movement.
With the ball in his hands, DeVries still threatened to score the basketball. He shot 67.9% on his 109 rim attempts this year, which, with only five dunks, bears out to some talented finishing. DeVries could get his own off of crossovers, iso drives, and spot-ups, where he showed some underrated quickness and burst toward the basket.
The more exciting side of DeVries’s drives comes from the funky finishes he deployed against length. DeVries has a pair of moves in his bag that he uses significantly when driving: the spin move and the up-and-under flip. Opponents struggled to stick with DeVries when he spun, even if they knew it was coming. If they were lucky enough to stick with him or bottle him up near the rim, DeVries would deploy ridiculous scoops or pump-faked pivots to flip in numerous lay-ups from absurd angles.
Combine that with a great change of pace in his driving, and you will have a complete package for DeVries as a driver. He’s mastered the art of euro-stepping fast and slow, which kept bigs trying to contest his shot off balance all year. DeVries was often the only person who knew when he would finally attack the rim at the end of this drive, which he can replicate to significant effect at the NBA level.
Outside of scoring, DeVries has enough passing chops to keep teams honest. He doubled his assists from last year to this year, which is a positive indicator of his ability to play within a team concept, but his turnovers also increased enough to need to be mentioned.
DeVries is a quick decision-maker with the ball in his hands and has the talent and vision to make an assortment of passes. He skips and swings the ball around the court to open shooters consistently while also kicking out to shooters and diming up his teammates on rolls to the rim. I wouldn’t classify him as a great passer, but DeVries is a good passer in several areas and keeps the ball moving crisply in all of Drake’s sets.
A sneaky swing skill for DeVries at the next level is his handle. There’s a little bit of shake to his game, alongside just enough burst to get downhill, but too often DeVries is too loose with his dribbling. He can’t quite get around more athletic defenders, which will be everyone he faces in the NBA, and that’s one of the catalysts for his 2.50 turnover average this year.
DeVries’s turnovers come primarily from his attempts to play hero ball. These come when he tries to isolate against doubles and triples, forces passes instead of making simple reads, and drives into traffic. He’ll have fewer opportunities at the next level, which could either help him by siphoning out the poor plays or highlight his struggles against aggressive defensive coverages.
When taking a wide-angle lens to Tucker DeVries’s offense in his college career, despite some minor warts, it’s clear that he’s an NBA-level talent. He’s a great shooter with room to grow; he can create his shot in the midrange and at the rim and has shown enough as a passer to make teams pay without scoring. While he could stand to clean up his handle and spot-up shooting, there’s much more to love with DeVries, and there are clear pro-level skills that would earn him rotation minutes with NBA teams in his rookie year.
Inside Scoring Package: As I See It, Yes
Outside Scoring Package: You May Rely on It
Passing/Ball-Handling Package: Signs Point to Yes
Defensive Divination
As a self-critical reflection, Magic 8 Ballers often focus more on the offensive end for prospects than the defensive end. Part of that comes from the players who’ve been featured (Wooga Poplar, Kel’el Ware, Judah Mintz, and Aday Mara), but part of that also speaks to the importance of offense for all of these prospects.
Tucker DeVries falls into a similar bucket. The crux of his future NBA potential comes from what he can do on the offensive end, but that doesn’t mean we can ignore his defense. If he’s a good enough shooter, his defense won’t matter as much to a team, but until then, it’s worth exploring what DeVries is good at and where he can improve.
I wouldn’t call DeVries a lousy defender, but I wouldn’t label him a positive on that end, either. He’s more of a net neutral at the college level, as he has a few skills that add value and a few drawbacks that dull his impact overall.
DeVries keeps the same balance he shows on movement shots to his closeouts on opposing shooters. Per Synergy, opponents only shot 28.6% on spot-up threes defended by DeVries, a lockdown number on paper. Based on the film, I don’t buy into that, but DeVries makes fluid moves off-ball and sticks to his man enough that he can’t be picked on in off-ball actions.
As a turnover generator, DeVries has some positive indicators as well. He’s had a 2.0% steal rate or higher each year at Drake, which is strong evidence that he can swipe at the next level. Most of DeVries’ steals come from him getting handsy and snatching the ball with his hand in the cookie jar. It’s not the most reliable method, alongside the opportunistic steals that do not directly involve him. Still, he doesn’t gamble in a way that will actively hamstring a defense in the NBA.
DeVries is also a solid defensive rebounder, which is a welcome sight, given he isn’t the tallest or beefiest player on the floor. He averaged 6.7 rebounds this year at Drake, and most of these came not off of athleticism but off of his reflexes and fundamentals. DeVries boxes out bigger players well and has a nose for where the ball will carom off the rim, which will help his future team gain an advantage in controlling the defensive glass.
While he has some positives to fall back on, some areas of concern could hold DeVries back at the next level. DeVries is lacking in terms of being an on-ball or interior defender. He can get blown by on the perimeter by players big and small, which is odd compared to his closeouts. He’s not feared as a defender, and drivers often go right through his chest when they attack the rim.
He’s also not tall or strong enough to offer resistance on the inside. That’s not the worst thing for a wing archetype, but it solidifies that DeVries can be targeted on defense. As long as he’s an easy mark for opposing ball handlers, DeVries will be a net-negative defender even with his steals and rebounds.
If his offense is good enough, the defense might not matter as much. Players like Buddy Hield, Duncan Robinson, and Isaiah Joe are all so impactful as shooters that their defensive drawbacks don’t keep them from playing major minutes. If DeVries can’t be that transcendental as a shooter, however, there could be some real impediments to him playing NBA minutes early in his career.
Perimeter Defense: Outlook Not So Good
Interior Defense: Very Doubtful
Team Tasseography
Since he stepped foot in The Knapp Center as a freshman, Tucker DeVries has been one of, if not the most important player on the floor for the Bulldogs. He’s helped lead them to unprecedented heights of success, making March Madness for two straight years now, but it’s worth wondering how he can adjust his role to fit at the next level.
Darian DeVries has done a great job of putting together the ideal roster around his son, which has led to the team’s success. The backcourt Cerberus of Kevin Overton, Atin Wright, and Connor Enright all have distinct roles on offense and defense, while Darnell Brodie’s passing and size helped solidify the team's middle.
With a true alpha scorer in DeVries, Drake overcame some of their talent concerns with fantastic fits and coaching from the elder DeVries. The Bulldogs ranked 29th in the country in field goal percentage at 47.7%, which comes from the quality sets and concepts that Darian DeVries implemented to generate open shots. It’s why he’s getting looks at the high major level and might go if his son heads to the NBA.
If that’s where Tucker DeVries goes, it’s worth wondering how he’ll be able to adapt. Many mid-major stars have struggled to adjust their game to the next level, and although DeVries can work off-ball, some of the concerns are real.
He’s never had a usage rate under 25.0%, which makes it fair to wonder whether he can scale back his game to fit in at the next level. What value can he reasonably provide to a team if he doesn’t have the same on-ball locks? If he’s pigeonholed into an exclusively off-ball role, what happens if he can’t his catch-and-shoot threes?
It’s hard to find a role for a player who can’t fit into a role on a team on offense and is a liability on defense. DeVries shouldn’t be that type of player, but it’s one of his potential futures if he can’t become an off-ball weapon. His spot-up shooting and connective passing will be the biggest indicators, each of which is a bit murky right now, but his defense might get him on the floor early or confine him to the bench instead.
NBA coaches are rightfully hard on rookie defenders and frequently bench players until they can hold their own at the professional level. Based on the film, I don’t know if DeVries can do that today. It may not matter how good he is as an all-around offensive player if he gives back the same points he helps score on the other end.
His shooting is the only part of his game that could be the great equalizer for his defense. At Drake, DeVries took the lion’s share of pull-up threes and was the player his teammates would seek out to bomb from beyond the arc. It’s great that he has a high volume and proven success, but a team will have to directly scheme him to get shots on the move to extract the most value from his current offensive package.
At the next level, Tucker DeVries is racing in opposite directions. Without a team specifically catered to support his success, he has two likely outcomes: his shooting will become so good that he entrenches himself as an offensive weapon, or his defense will become so tough that he can’t get on the floor to hit the shots.
The Final Shake
Even though they haven’t won their first game in the tournament either year, Tucker DeVries's admirable and skillful leadership of the Drake Bulldogs makes him a player worth watching at the mid-major level. Combine that with his great shooting and overall offensive impact, and you have a player worthy of draft consideration.
Whether that’s this year or next year is part of the mystery. With NIL looming for every college star and the continued potential to play under his father, albeit on a potentially bigger stage, there’s no guarantee that DeVries will even come out this year. It’s hard to know if the class uncertainty will be more enticing for prospects or create an even dicier dilemma for him and other players to solve.
Whenever DeVries decides to test the waters and stay in the draft, it’s essential to focus on the positives for his game more than the negatives. He’s a tall shooter who provides offensive value, even if he needs the ball. DeVries has shown enough from deep and when passing in the team’s offense to hint at enough potential as a connector at the next level, even if he hasn’t had to play in that role at Drake.
Like most offensive stars before him, he’ll have to conquer his defensive demons to truly carve out a role in the NBA. Due to his measurables and athleticism, it's an open question whether he can do that. Still, some aforementioned NBA offensive specialists at least offer the pathway for DeVries to play real minutes at the next level without becoming a league-average defender.