Milan Momcilovic Can't Miss | The Prospect Overview
Iowa State’s Milan Momcilovic is a different kind of “Can’t Miss Prospect.” A full scouting report on the elite marksman who is making waves in 2026 NBA Draft talks.
Phrases like “elite,” “outlier,” and “generational” get thrown around a lot. That makes it all the more perplexing that Milan Momcilovic’s historic shooting season has gone underdiscussed to a degree. Going into NCAA tournament play, the 6’8” junior from Iowa State hit 49.6% of his threes on 7.5 attempts per game, which equates to 14.7 attempts per 100 possessions. We’re going to discuss the entirety of Momcilovic’s game, but we’re going to start with a hyperfocus on his signature skill that has brought him to the dance, which is his flamethrowing jump shot.
Context
I wanted to start with sort of a rough approximation of what an “elite jumbo shooter” looks like. I settled on 6’8” and above, over 40% from three, and over 10 attempts per 100 possessions at the high-major level.
34 players hit that threshold. Digging through this list, there are a lot of success stories, even if the success was just, “hey, he got a cup of coffee!” I think this alone makes it pretty clear that Momcilovic is a prospect worth discussing. But digging deeper, there are a few things to be encouraged about, but also a few times that were a bit concerning.
The Good Stuff
-Momcilovic ranked first on this list in eFG%, TS%,
-Momcilovic ranked second on this list in BPM
-Momcilovic ranked 5th in turnover rate
-Momcilovic ranked 13th in 2FG%
The Not So Good Stuff
-Momcilovic ranked dead last in ORB%,
-Momcilovic ranked 29th in AST%
-Momcilovic ranked 28th in DRB%,
-Momcilovic ranked 26th in BLK%
The good news is that, even among his peers in history, Momcilovic is uniquely efficient. He’s also a super-low-turnover player, a common thread among players who drive most of their offensive value at the NBA level through their shooting. Conversely, he doesn’t produce much in other areas. I always think back to John Hollinger’s 2023 Draft Board, where he wrote the following about Nick Smith Jr.:
An extremely simple but useful metric, especially for guards and wings, is to just add their assists, rebounds, blocks and steals per 100 possessions. This “ADD” rating usually will come in around 15 for a good prospect, depending on his age, of course. To give you an idea, Anthony Black is at 19.8, Colby Jones is at 18.2, Kobe Bufkin is at 16.2, Gradey Dick is at 14.1 and Jordan Hawkins is at 12.6.
Then there’s Smith. He’s the only legit prospect in this draft who didn’t crack double digits, at just 9.5.
Hollinger faded Smith relative to the consensus, a move that turned out to be savvy. But back to the topic at hand…Momcilovic’s, erm, ADD Rate(?) is 10.9. So, he’s really, really behind the curve when it comes to impacting the game in other areas. We’ll get to that later. But first, let’s start with the functionality of his shot.
The Almighty Jumper
Momcilovic is a genuinely dynamic three-point shooter. He’s gone 48-for-98 on spot-ups, 23-for-51 off screens, 23-for-49 in transition, 13-for-28 off handoffs, and 11-for-13 on pick-and-pops. He’s lethal from a pure standstill, and he has answers to closeouts. First, there’s his high release, as he’s simply able to shoot it over most opponents. Second, he keeps the ball high off the catch, so his time to get to the apex of his motion is short. Lastly, he has a lethal pump-fake-into-a-sidestep move that he likes to use to beat flybys.
That said, the “standstill shooter” role isn’t particularly appealing to front offices anymore, particularly when a given player doesn’t provide a ton of value in other areas. One area where Momcilovic thrives is in transition and early offense. He can get his team really high percentage shots early in the clock by filling the right spots on the floor if defenses don’t pick him up early. Momcilovic does a good job of getting his base under him, squaring his shoulders and hips to the rim, and getting the ball out in a timely manner in this context.
I’m a little more dubious of his ability to get to NBA threes off screens and off handoffs. I could be wrong here, but I don’t think he’ll be able to generate much separation or get his man behind him as effectively as a Duncan Robinson, for instance. We’ll need to see some speed improvements for that to be a viable thing. That said, I do dig Momcilovic as a pop-man, something he hasn’t done much this year due to Iowa State also having Joshua Jefferson and Black Buchanan to set screens. When he’s alongside a ball-handler who can generate an advantage or draw two on the ball, he’s going to get some awesome looks from three. He’s also shown clean footwork when ghosting screens.
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Non-Shooting Offense
So, what else is there on offense? Let’s talk about the scoring first. When Momcilovic scores inside the arc, he tends to settle for a pull-up two. His first step is subpar; he takes long strides, but they’re still pretty slow, and he doesn’t seem to have great command of the ball when he dribbles. As a result, getting all the way to the cup isn’t super easy for him. He did make 16 of his 20 half-court rim attempts per Synergy, so his size and touch serve him well when he does make it to the basket, but more often than not, he doesn’t get there. This would be okay if the mid-range results were stellar, but they’re not. He’s gone 14-for-40 on dribble jumper twos, per Synergy, struggling to go seamlessly from his downhill dribble game into his jumper mechanics when operating in a crowded space. He also doesn’t have the foot speed to generate easy separation. Also, I wish he used his gravity as a shooter to cut off defenders who play him tight more often. While Momcilovic will always undoubtedly be a sky-high three-point rate guy, projecting higher-end outcomes would be easier if I felt more confident in him inside the arc.
Momcilovic’s playmaking is a mixed bag, but I generally feel good about it. To be clear, he doesn’t have a lot of sauce. Because of his aforementioned handle issues, it’s hard enough for him not to get stripped on the move, let alone read the defense quickly as it collapses on him. When he tries to do more beyond the basics, things can get clunky and awkward in a hurry. Still, I trust him as a snap decision-maker. He has serious gravity as a shooter, and when he draws multiple defenders, he’s ready to make the quick, correct pass in short order. The ball doesn’t stick with him, and he rarely attempts to bite off more than he can chew simply for the sake of doing it. He might not be as dynamic as his wing peers in terms of how he can create, but most of what he’s going to be asked to do can be distilled down to “keep it moving and don’t screw up,” and I think he can do that.
Defense
It’s time to ask the classic sharpshooter question—”will he be a hunting target on defense?”
To be honest, right now, I worry that the answer is yes. Above, I’ve included six clips of Momcilovic guarding projected first-round picks in isolation. After going through all of his possessions on an island, I would say the one where he guards Cameron Carr is the most instructive as to his issues in this capacity, so I put that clip in first. The biggest issues outside of “he’s not really fast” are 1. his choppy footwork and 2. his tendency to cede ground. Momcilovic moves his feet a lot, and he does it while continuously giving space to his man. This gives his man more opportunities to get him off balance, it makes it easier for them to get downhill, and it makes it easier to generate space if they decide to step back, too. His footwork is, and I mean this in a different sense, defensive. He doesn’t attack with his lateral first step or look to cover ground laterally.
When I work with slower sharpshooters on the consulting side of things, I tend to show them a lot of Sam Hauser clips. Not of his shooting, but of his defense. To be clear, Sam Hauser has a level of physical strength a lot of players don’t have, but even in the absence of that, his techniques are effective. There are two key differences in how Hauser and Momcilovic defend. The first is that Hauser takes far fewer unnecessary steps, which makes it much easier for him to maintain his balance. The second is that when players go at Hauser, Hauser doesn’t go anywhere. He loves to absorb their attacks and initiate the bump battle, using his physicality to stifle their attempts at dribble penetration. Some slower players cede ground and step backwards to avoid getting dusted, but Hauser plays tighter than one might expect at first glance. Factor in his size and toughness, and that’s why he doesn’t get dusted. I’d love to see Momcilovic adopt this approach.
His off-ball defense is a less interesting discussion to me. Momcilovic’s event creation is poor (1.5 STL%, 0.9 BLK%), but that red flag is often overcome by elite shooters, so it’s not a total crisis point in my opinion, though it is concerning. He just doesn’t get to where he needs to go particularly fast, nor does he shift directions easily if he suddenly needs to rotate to a different player. It would require a ridiculous outlier event for him to become a defensive playmaker of any order in the NBA. That said, his general sense of where to be, paired with his size, makes him an impediment to opposing offenses. And looking at the Hoop-Explorer data, Iowa State’s defense isn’t noticeably better or worse when Momcilovic is on the floor. Still, he’s likely going to be a defensive negative at the next level unless he can take steps forward in guarding the ball.
Conclusion
Milan Momcilovic is a run-of-the-mill interior scorer with a low assist rate who struggles on and off the ball defensively. He’s also one of the best shooters in the history of college basketball. I always say that in the draft, at a certain point, you have to bet on something. My personal preference generally tends to be betting on guys who you know can do something really well and hoping that you can get them close enough to passable in other areas that they can stay on the floor. Momcilovic is a truly excellent shooter, and I think he has enough ways to get to his shot, paired with a functional enough release, for that strength to carry over to the next level. While I would personally prefer Momcilovic return to school so that he can round out his offensive skill set, I would still be inclined to swing on him early in the second round if he entered the 2026 NBA Draft. You can’t teach special, and Milan Momcilovic just had an incredibly special season.
Quick Hits
We had some farewells this past week, so let’s cover those.
-Santa Clara’s Allen Graves had a quiet first half before reminding everyone why he rocks in the second. His length and activity on defense caused some real hiccups for opponents; his physicality was on point, and he hit a huge shot when it mattered most. Graves is probably among the most discussed prospects in Draft Obsessive Circles, but he’s a real reminder as to why the scouting process is so fun and fascinating. He had an outstanding out-of-nowhere season, and I cannot wait to see what’s next for him.
-Darrion Williams is off to the pros, and I’m fascinated to see where he lands come June. A lot of what makes the 6’6” senior from NC State so interesting was on display in his final college game against Texas. He showed off his ability to stretch the floor from three and drive opponents backwards with his strength on the interior. Defensively, he was a mixed bag in ways that remain a question for his NBA outcome. At his best, his physicality stifled drives, and his awareness got him into the right spots off the ball. Other times, he looked heavy-footed and let his man inside too easily. He’ll be a great test case for how much feel and shooting touch can overcome poor interior finishing and subpar athletic traits.
-Akron had a hard time with Texas Tech, but Amani Lyles answered a lot of questions about what he looks like against tough competition. He stuffed the stat sheet all year long, and he did it again in The Big Dance with a super-efficient 26 points and four stocks. I’ve been a fan all year, and I’m hoping that a game like that gets him some more front office attention. He should be firmly in the two-way mix.
-South Florida got bit by poor shooting variance at the wrong time. Still, I thought Joseph Pinion was stellar. He bombed threes and generated a ton of steals against Louisville, which has always been the name of the game for him. But I also thought his decision-making and ability to leverage his gravity were top-notch, as was his rebounding. He’s a firm E-10 guy at worst, and I’m open to him on a two-way. Low-turnover bombers who help win the possession battle on D are helpful guys to have.
-Jaden Toombs wrapped up his first year at SMU. While they fell short against Miami Ohio in the play-in, Toombs was a bright spot for the Mustangs. He dominated on the glass and showed off soft touch with his hook shots and jumper. Toombs is a bit undersized for a five right now, and his shot isn’t totally there yet. But his combination of physicality, feel, and touch has me intrigued long-term.
-Siena couldn’t keep their lead over Duke, but how about Gavin Doty?! I told you all he was a baller, but I knocked his lack of defensive playmaking in my preview column. In that game, he generated two great steals! One with a savvy “knock it out of a guy’s hands after a rebound” and one off a great read where he anticipated Cameron Boozer spinning back into the paint. Sometimes, usage can limit how guys play, particularly when they need to stay out of foul trouble. Those plays made me think he might have more to offer on defense, and if that’s the case, watch out.
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